Are niche-based species distribution models transferable in space?

Aim To assess the geographical transferability of niche-based species distribution models fitted with two modelling techniques. Location Two distinct geographical study areas in Switzerland and Austria, in the subalpine and alpine belts. Methods Generalized linear and generalized additive models (GLM and GAM) with a binomial probability distribution and a logit link were fitted for 54 plant species, based on topoclimatic predictor variables. These models were then evaluated quantitatively and used for spatially explicit predictions within (internal evaluation and prediction) and between (external evaluation and prediction) the two regions. Comparisons of evaluations and spatial predictions between regions and models were conducted in order to test if species and methods meet the criteria of full transferability. By full transferability, we mean that: (1) the internal evaluation of models fitted in region A and B must be similar; (2) a model fitted in region A must at least retain a comparable external evaluation when projected into region B, and vice-versa; and (3) internal and external spatial predictions have to match within both regions. Results The measures of model fit are, on average, 24% higher for GAMs than for GLMs in both regions. However, the differences between internal and external evaluations (AUC coefficient) are also higher for GAMs than for GLMs (a difference of 30% for models fitted in Switzerland and 54% for models fitted in Austria). Transferability, as measured with the AUC evaluation, fails for 68% of the species in Switzerland and 55% in Austria for GLMs (respectively for 67% and 53% of the species for GAMs). For both GAMs and GLMs, the agreement between internal and external predictions is rather weak on average (Kulczynski's coefficient in the range 0.3-0.4), but varies widely among individual species. The dominant pattern is an asymmetrical transferability between the two study regions (a mean decrease of 20% for the AUC coefficient when the models are transferred from Switzerland and 13% when they are transferred from Austria). Main conclusions The large inter-specific variability observed among the 54 study species underlines the need to consider more than a few species to test properly the transferability of species distribution models. The pronounced asymmetry in transferability between the two study regions may be due to peculiarities of these regions, such as differences in the ranges of environmental predictors or the varied impact of land-use history, or to species-specific reasons like differential phenotypic plasticity, existence of ecotypes or varied dependence on biotic interactions that are not properly incorporated into niche-based models. The lower variation between internal and external evaluation of GLMs compared to GAMs further suggests that overfitting may reduce transferability. Overall, a limited geographical transferability calls for caution when projecting niche-based models for assessing the fate of species in future environments.

Families of periodic orbits for the spatial isosceles 3-body problem

We study the families of periodic orbits of the spatial isosceles 3-body problem (for small enough values of the mass lying on the symmetry axis) coming via the analytic continuation method from periodic orbits of the circular Sitnikov problem. Using the first integral of the angular momentum, we reduce the dimension of the phase space of the problem by two units. Since periodic orbits of the reduced isosceles problem generate invariant two-dimensional tori of the nonreduced problem, the analytic continuation of periodic orbits of the (reduced) circular Sitnikov problem at this level becomes the continuation of invariant two-dimensional tori from the circular Sitnikov problem to the nonreduced isosceles problem, each one filled with periodic or quasi-periodic orbits. These tori are not KAM tori but just isotropic, since we are dealing with a three-degrees-of-freedom system. The continuation of periodic orbits is done in two different ways, the first going directly from the reduced circular Sitnikov problem to the reduced isosceles problem, and the second one using two steps: first we continue the periodic orbits from the reduced circular Sitnikov problem to the reduced elliptic Sitnikov problem, and then we continue those periodic orbits of the reduced elliptic Sitnikov problem to the reduced isosceles problem. The continuation in one or two steps produces different results. This work is merely analytic and uses the variational equations in order to apply Poincar´e’s continuation method.

Quasi-Nonparametric Blind Inversion of Wiener Systems

An e cient procedure for the blind inversion of a nonlinear Wiener system is proposed. We proved that the problem can be expressed as a problem of blind source separation in nonlinear mixtures, for which a solution has been recently proposed. Based on a quasi-nonparametric relative gradient descent, the proposed algorithm can perform e ciently even in the presence of hard distortions.

The lower Triassic anachronistic carbonate facies in space and time

The end-Permian mass extinction greatly affected the sedimentary record, but the sedimentary response was not limited to the Permian-Triassic boundary interval. This transformation extended to sedimentation that spanned the entire Early Triassic. Calcimicrobialites play an important role throughout this time interval, and at least four main events of anomalous carbonate deposition can be shown. A post-extinction calcimicrobial unit occurs above the extensive Permian skeletal carbonate platform exposed in the Taurus Mountains (southern Turkey), in south Armenia, north-west north and Central Iran along the Zagros Mountains. The calcimicrobial unit formed during the flooding of the platform that took place during the earliest Triassic. A similar calcimicrobialite formed during late Griesbachian to Dienerian time atop the shallow Permian skeletal carbonate platform largely exposed in south China. A third event occurred during the Early Olenekian on the first Mesozoic isolated pelagic plateau (Baid seamount, Oman Mountains). Here the change in carbonate sedimentation is reflected in the occurrence of thrombolites and carbonate seafloor fans. Near the end of Early Triassic time, unusual carbonate deposition is recorded both on an isolated pelagic plateau of the Western Tethys (Halstatt limestone of Dobrogea, Romania) and on the eastern Panthalassa margin of the western United States. In the western United States, the event is represented by stromatolites and thrombolites in the Virgin Limestone of the Moenkopi Formation and by seafloor fans in the middle and upper members of the Union Wash Formation. These unusual episodes of anomalous carbonate deposition illustrate a fundamental change in sedimentation that occurred in the aftermath of the end-Permian mass extinction.

Nonpoint source pollution, space, time and asymetric information - a deposit refund approach

The incorporation of space allows the establishment of a more precise relationship between a contaminating input, a contaminating byproduct and emissions that reach the final receptor. However, the presence of asymmetric information impedes the implementation of the first-best policy. As a solution to this problem a site specific deposit refund system for the contaminating input and the contaminating byproduct are proposed. Moreover, the utilization of a successive optimization technique first over space and second over time enables definition of the optimal intertemporal site specific deposit refund system

Direct numerical simulations of interface dynamics to link capillary pressure and total surface energy

The flow of two immiscible fluids through a porous medium depends on the complex interplay between gravity, capillarity, and viscous forces. The interaction between these forces and the geometry of the medium gives rise to a variety of complex flow regimes that are difficult to describe using continuum models. Although a number of pore-scale models have been employed, a careful investigation of the macroscopic effects of pore-scale processes requires methods based on conservation principles in order to reduce the number of modeling assumptions. In this work we perform direct numerical simulations of drainage by solving Navier-Stokes equations in the pore space and employing the Volume Of Fluid (VOF) method to track the evolution of the fluid-fluid interface. After demonstrating that the method is able to deal with large viscosity contrasts and model the transition from stable flow to viscous fingering, we focus on the macroscopic capillary pressure and we compare different definitions of this quantity under quasi-static and dynamic conditions. We show that the difference between the intrinsic phase-average pressures, which is commonly used as definition of Darcy-scale capillary pressure, is subject to several limitations and it is not accurate in presence of viscous effects or trapping. In contrast, a definition based on the variation of the total surface energy provides an accurate estimate of the macroscopic capillary pressure. This definition, which links the capillary pressure to its physical origin, allows a better separation of viscous effects and does not depend on the presence of trapped fluid clusters.

Reflexiones sobre el espacio público = Thoughts on Public Space

En este artículo planteamos una aproximación a la idea de espacio público como articulador del conjunto de acontecimientos que intervienen en la vida de las ciudades. Entendemos este fenómeno como una red poliédrica y multidimensional, cuyo estudio pasa por el análisis de diversas problemáticas: la identificación de los límites entre espacio público y esfera pública; la conformación del espacio público construido; la aproximación teórica al fenómeno desde la contemporaneidad; la dimensión social del espacio público; y finalmente la perspectiva de la gestión de las ciudades. Todas estas dimensiones expresan una mirada crítica del objeto i ponen en valor niveles de trabajo interdisciplinar y multiescala, fundamentales para entender e intervenir en el espacio público de la ciudad contemporánea.

Fly Ash Soil Stabilization for Non-Uniform Subgrade Soils, Volume I: Engineering Properties and Construction Guidelines, TR-461, 2005

Soil treated with self-cementing fly ash is increasingly being used in Iowa to stabilize fine-grained pavement subgrades, but without a complete understanding of the short- and long-term behavior. To develop a broader understanding of fly ash engineering properties, mixtures of five different soil types, ranging from ML to CH, and several different fly ash sources (including hydrated and conditioned fly ashes) were evaluated. Results show that soil compaction characteristics, compressive strength, wet/dry durability, freeze/thaw durability, hydration characteristics, rate of strength gain, and plasticity characteristics are all affected by the addition of fly ash. Specifically, Iowa selfcementing fly ashes are effective at stabilizing fine-grained Iowa soils for earthwork and paving operations; fly ash increases compacted dry density and reduces the optimum moisture content; strength gain in soil-fly ash mixtures depends on cure time and temperature, compaction energy, and compaction delay; sulfur contents can form expansive minerals in soil–fly ash mixtures, which severely reduces the long-term strength and durability; fly ash increases the California bearing ratio of fine-grained soil–fly ash effectively dries wet soils and provides an initial rapid strength gain; fly ash decreases swell potential of expansive soils; soil-fly ash mixtures cured below freezing temperatures and then soaked in water are highly susceptible to slaking and strength loss; soil stabilized with fly ash exhibits increased freeze-thaw durability; soil strength can be increased with the addition of hydrated fly ash and conditioned fly ash, but at higher rates and not as effectively as self-cementing fly ash. Based on the results of this study, three proposed specifications were developed for the use of self-cementing fly ash, hydrated fly ash, and conditioned fly ash. The specifications describe laboratory evaluation, field placement, moisture conditioning, compaction, quality control testing procedures, and basis of payment.

Fly Ash Soil Stabilization for Non-Uniform Subgrade Soils, Volume II: Influence of Subgrade Non-Uniformity on PCC Pavement Performance, TR-461, 2005

To provide insight into subgrade non-uniformity and its effects on pavement performance, this study investigated the influence of non-uniform subgrade support on pavement responses (stress and deflection) that affect pavement performance. Several reconstructed PCC pavement projects in Iowa were studied to document and evaluate the influence of subgrade/subbase non-uniformity on pavement performance. In situ field tests were performed at 12 sites to determine the subgrade/subbase engineering properties and develop a database of engineering parameter values for statistical and numerical analysis. Results of stiffness, moisture and density, strength, and soil classification were used to determine the spatial variability of a given property. Natural subgrade soils, fly ash-stabilized subgrade, reclaimed hydrated fly ash subbase, and granular subbase were studied. The influence of the spatial variability of subgrade/subbase on pavement performance was then evaluated by modeling the elastic properties of the pavement and subgrade using the ISLAB2000 finite element analysis program. A major conclusion from this study is that non-uniform subgrade/subbase stiffness increases localized deflections and causes principal stress concentrations in the pavement, which can lead to fatigue cracking and other types of pavement distresses. Field data show that hydrated fly ash, self-cementing fly ash-stabilized subgrade, and granular subbases exhibit lower variability than natural subgrade soils. Pavement life should be increased through the use of more uniform subgrade support. Subgrade/subbase construction in the future should consider uniformity as a key to long-term pavement performance.

Predicting the physicochemical profile of diastereoisomeric histidine-containing dipeptides by property space analysis.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed at measuring the lipophilicity and ionization constants of diastereoisomeric dipeptides, interpreting them in terms of conformational behavior, and developing statistical models to predict them. METHODS: A series of 20 dipeptides of general structure NH(2) -L-X-(L or D)-His-OMe was designed and synthetized. Their experimental ionization constants (pK(1) , pK(2) and pK(3) ) and lipophilicity parameters (log P(N) and log D(7.4) ) were measured by potentiometry. Molecular modeling in three media (vacuum, water, and chloroform) was used to explore and sample their conformational space, and for each stored conformer to calculate their radius of gyration, virtual log P (preferably written as log P(MLP) , meaning obtained by the molecular lipophilicity potential (MLP) method) and polar surface area (PSA). Means and ranges were calculated for these properties, as was their sensitivity (i.e., the ratio between property range and number of rotatable bonds). RESULTS: Marked differences between diastereoisomers were seen in their experimental ionization constants and lipophilicity parameters. These differences are explained by molecular flexibility, configuration-dependent differences in intramolecular interactions, and accessibility of functional groups. Multiple linear equations correlated experimental lipophilicity parameters and ionization constants with PSA range and other calculated parameters. CONCLUSION: This study documents the differences in lipophilicity and ionization constants between diastereoisomeric dipeptides. Such configuration-dependent differences are shown to depend markedly on differences in conformational behavior and to be amenable to multiple linear regression. Chirality 24:566-576, 2012. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Public Art, strategies for the regeneration of public space

This paper discusses some of the key concepts in the consideration of public art as a central element in urban regeneration processes, especially in reference to its role in the processes of citizen participation.

Reflexiones sobre el espacio público = Thoughts on Public Space

En este artículo planteamos una aproximación a la idea de espacio público como articulador del conjunto de acontecimientos que intervienen en la vida de las ciudades. Entendemos este fenómeno como una red poliédrica y multidimensional, cuyo estudio pasa por el análisis de diversas problemáticas: la identificación de los límites entre espacio público y esfera pública; la conformación del espacio público construido; la aproximación teórica al fenómeno desde la contemporaneidad; la dimensión social del espacio público; y finalmente la perspectiva de la gestión de las ciudades. Todas estas dimensiones expresan una mirada crítica del objeto i ponen en valor niveles de trabajo interdisciplinar y multiescala, fundamentales para entender e intervenir en el espacio público de la ciudad contemporánea.

Dynamic Modelling of Material Flows and Sustainable Resource Use: Case Studies in Regional Metabolism and Space Life Support Systems

Sustainable resource use is one of the most important environmental issues of our times. It is closely related to discussions on the 'peaking' of various natural resources serving as energy sources, agricultural nutrients, or metals indispensable in high-technology applications. Although the peaking theory remains controversial, it is commonly recognized that a more sustainable use of resources would alleviate negative environmental impacts related to resource use. In this thesis, sustainable resource use is analysed from a practical standpoint, through several different case studies. Four of these case studies relate to resource metabolism in the Canton of Geneva in Switzerland: the aim was to model the evolution of chosen resource stocks and flows in the coming decades. The studied resources were copper (a bulk metal), phosphorus (a vital agricultural nutrient), and wood (a renewable resource). In addition, the case of lithium (a critical metal) was analysed briefly in a qualitative manner and in an electric mobility perspective. In addition to the Geneva case studies, this thesis includes a case study on the sustainability of space life support systems. Space life support systems are systems whose aim is to provide the crew of a spacecraft with the necessary metabolic consumables over the course of a mission. Sustainability was again analysed from a resource use perspective. In this case study, the functioning of two different types of life support systems, ARES and BIORAT, were evaluated and compared; these systems represent, respectively, physico-chemical and biological life support systems. Space life support systems could in fact be used as a kind of 'laboratory of sustainability' given that they represent closed and relatively simple systems compared to complex and open terrestrial systems such as the Canton of Geneva. The chosen analysis method used in the Geneva case studies was dynamic material flow analysis: dynamic material flow models were constructed for the resources copper, phosphorus, and wood. Besides a baseline scenario, various alternative scenarios (notably involving increased recycling) were also examined. In the case of space life support systems, the methodology of material flow analysis was also employed, but as the data available on the dynamic behaviour of the systems was insufficient, only static simulations could be performed. The results of the case studies in the Canton of Geneva show the following: were resource use to follow population growth, resource consumption would be multiplied by nearly 1.2 by 2030 and by 1.5 by 2080. A complete transition to electric mobility would be expected to only slightly (+5%) increase the copper consumption per capita while the lithium demand in cars would increase 350 fold. For example, phosphorus imports could be decreased by recycling sewage sludge or human urine; however, the health and environmental impacts of these options have yet to be studied. Increasing the wood production in the Canton would not significantly decrease the dependence on wood imports as the Canton's production represents only 5% of total consumption. In the comparison of space life support systems ARES and BIORAT, BIORAT outperforms ARES in resource use but not in energy use. However, as the systems are dimensioned very differently, it remains questionable whether they can be compared outright. In conclusion, the use of dynamic material flow analysis can provide useful information for policy makers and strategic decision-making; however, uncertainty in reference data greatly influences the precision of the results. Space life support systems constitute an extreme case of resource-using systems; nevertheless, it is not clear how their example could be of immediate use to terrestrial systems.

Pore-scale modeling of two-phase flow instabilities in porous media

Les problèmes d'écoulements multiphasiques en média poreux sont d'un grand intérêt pour de nombreuses applications scientifiques et techniques ; comme la séquestration de C02, l'extraction de pétrole et la dépollution des aquifères. La complexité intrinsèque des systèmes multiphasiques et l'hétérogénéité des formations géologiques sur des échelles multiples représentent un challenge majeur pour comprendre et modéliser les déplacements immiscibles dans les milieux poreux. Les descriptions à l'échelle supérieure basées sur la généralisation de l'équation de Darcy sont largement utilisées, mais ces méthodes sont sujettes à limitations pour les écoulements présentant de l'hystérèse. Les avancées récentes en terme de performances computationnelles et le développement de méthodes précises pour caractériser l'espace interstitiel ainsi que la distribution des phases ont favorisé l'utilisation de modèles qui permettent une résolution fine à l'échelle du pore. Ces modèles offrent un aperçu des caractéristiques de l'écoulement qui ne peuvent pas être facilement observées en laboratoire et peuvent être utilisé pour expliquer la différence entre les processus physiques et les modèles à l'échelle macroscopique existants. L'objet premier de la thèse se porte sur la simulation numérique directe : les équations de Navier-Stokes sont résolues dans l'espace interstitiel et la méthode du volume de fluide (VOF) est employée pour suivre l'évolution de l'interface. Dans VOF, la distribution des phases est décrite par une fonction fluide pour l'ensemble du domaine et des conditions aux bords particulières permettent la prise en compte des propriétés de mouillage du milieu poreux. Dans la première partie de la thèse, nous simulons le drainage dans une cellule Hele-Shaw 2D avec des obstacles cylindriques. Nous montrons que l'approche proposée est applicable même pour des ratios de densité et de viscosité très importants et permet de modéliser la transition entre déplacement stable et digitation visqueuse. Nous intéressons ensuite à l'interprétation de la pression capillaire à l'échelle macroscopique. Nous montrons que les techniques basées sur la moyenne spatiale de la pression présentent plusieurs limitations et sont imprécises en présence d'effets visqueux et de piégeage. Au contraire, une définition basée sur l'énergie permet de séparer les contributions capillaires des effets visqueux. La seconde partie de la thèse est consacrée à l'investigation des effets d'inertie associés aux reconfigurations irréversibles du ménisque causé par l'interface des instabilités. Comme prototype pour ces phénomènes, nous étudions d'abord la dynamique d'un ménisque dans un pore angulaire. Nous montrons que, dans un réseau de pores cubiques, les sauts et reconfigurations sont si fréquents que les effets d'inertie mènent à différentes configurations des fluides. A cause de la non-linéarité du problème, la distribution des fluides influence le travail des forces de pression, qui, à son tour, provoque une chute de pression dans la loi de Darcy. Cela suggère que ces phénomènes devraient être pris en compte lorsque que l'on décrit l'écoulement multiphasique en média poreux à l'échelle macroscopique. La dernière partie de la thèse s'attache à démontrer la validité de notre approche par une comparaison avec des expériences en laboratoire : un drainage instable dans un milieu poreux quasi 2D (une cellule Hele-Shaw avec des obstacles cylindriques). Plusieurs simulations sont tournées sous différentes conditions aux bords et en utilisant différents modèles (modèle intégré 2D et modèle 3D) afin de comparer certaines quantités macroscopiques avec les observations au laboratoire correspondantes. Malgré le challenge de modéliser des déplacements instables, où, par définition, de petites perturbations peuvent grandir sans fin, notre approche numérique apporte de résultats satisfaisants pour tous les cas étudiés. - Problems involving multiphase flow in porous media are of great interest in many scientific and engineering applications including Carbon Capture and Storage, oil recovery and groundwater remediation. The intrinsic complexity of multiphase systems and the multi scale heterogeneity of geological formations represent the major challenges to understand and model immiscible displacement in porous media. Upscaled descriptions based on generalization of Darcy's law are widely used, but they are subject to several limitations for flow that exhibit hysteric and history- dependent behaviors. Recent advances in high performance computing and the development of accurate methods to characterize pore space and phase distribution have fostered the use of models that allow sub-pore resolution. These models provide an insight on flow characteristics that cannot be easily achieved by laboratory experiments and can be used to explain the gap between physical processes and existing macro-scale models. We focus on direct numerical simulations: we solve the Navier-Stokes equations for mass and momentum conservation in the pore space and employ the Volume Of Fluid (VOF) method to track the evolution of the interface. In the VOF the distribution of the phases is described by a fluid function (whole-domain formulation) and special boundary conditions account for the wetting properties of the porous medium. In the first part of this thesis we simulate drainage in a 2-D Hele-Shaw cell filled with cylindrical obstacles. We show that the proposed approach can handle very large density and viscosity ratios and it is able to model the transition from stable displacement to viscous fingering. We then focus on the interpretation of the macroscopic capillary pressure showing that pressure average techniques are subject to several limitations and they are not accurate in presence of viscous effects and trapping. On the contrary an energy-based definition allows separating viscous and capillary contributions. In the second part of the thesis we investigate inertia effects associated with abrupt and irreversible reconfigurations of the menisci caused by interface instabilities. As a prototype of these phenomena we first consider the dynamics of a meniscus in an angular pore. We show that in a network of cubic pores, jumps and reconfigurations are so frequent that inertia effects lead to different fluid configurations. Due to the non-linearity of the problem, the distribution of the fluids influences the work done by pressure forces, which is in turn related to the pressure drop in Darcy's law. This suggests that these phenomena should be taken into account when upscaling multiphase flow in porous media. The last part of the thesis is devoted to proving the accuracy of the numerical approach by validation with experiments of unstable primary drainage in a quasi-2D porous medium (i.e., Hele-Shaw cell filled with cylindrical obstacles). We perform simulations under different boundary conditions and using different models (2-D integrated and full 3-D) and we compare several macroscopic quantities with the corresponding experiment. Despite the intrinsic challenges of modeling unstable displacement, where by definition small perturbations can grow without bounds, the numerical method gives satisfactory results for all the cases studied.