The Time-Series Properties on Housing Prices: A Case Study of the Southern California Market

We examine the time-series relationship between housing prices in eight Southern California metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). First, we perform cointegration tests of the housing price indexes for the MSAs, finding seven cointegrating vectors. Thus, the evidence suggests that one common trend links the housing prices in these eight MSAs, a purchasing power parity finding for the housing prices in Southern California. Second, we perform temporal Granger causality tests revealing intertwined temporal relationships. The Santa Anna MSA leads the pack in temporally causing housing prices in six of the other seven MSAs, excluding only the San Luis Obispo MSA. The Oxnard MSA experienced the largest number of temporal effects from other MSAs, six of the seven, excluding only Los Angeles. The Santa Barbara MSA proved the most isolated in that it temporally caused housing prices in only two other MSAs (Los Angels and Oxnard) and housing prices in the Santa Anna MSA temporally caused prices in Santa Barbara. Third, we calculate out-of-sample forecasts in each MSA, using various vector autoregressive (VAR) and vector error-correction (VEC) models, as well as Bayesian, spatial, and causality versions of these models with various priors. Different specifications provide superior forecasts in the different MSAs. Finally, we consider the ability of theses time-series models to provide accurate out-of-sample predictions of turning points in housing prices that occurred in 2006:Q4. Recursive forecasts, where the sample is updated each quarter, provide reasonably good forecasts of turning points.

Efficient Unit Root Tests of real Exchange Rates in the Post-Bretton Woods Era

We apply the efficient unit-roots tests of Elliott, Rothenberg, and Stock (1996), and Elliott (1998) to twenty-one real exchange rates using monthly data of the G-7 countries from the post-Bretton Woods floating exchange rate period. Our results indicate that, for eighteen out of the twenty-one real exchange rates, the null hypothesis of a unit root can be rejected at the 10% significance level or better using the Elliot et al (1996) DF-GLS test. The unit-root null hypothesis is also rejected for one additional real exchange rate when we allow for one endogenously determined break in the time series of the real exchange rate as in Perron (1997). In all, we find favorable evidence to support long-run purchasing power parity in nineteen out of twenty-one real exchange rates. Second, we find no strong evidence to suggest that the use of non-U.S. dollar-based real exchange rates tend to produce more favorable result for long-run PPP than the use of U.S. dollar-based real exchange rates as Lothian (1998) has concluded.

Non-Parametric Tests of Real Exchange rates in the Post-Bretton Woods Era

This paper examines the mean-reverting property of real exchange rates. Earlier studies have generally not been able to reject the null hypothesis of a unit-root in real exchange rates, especially for the post-Bretton Woods floating period. The results imply that long-run purchasing power parity does not hold. More recent studies, especially those using panel unit-root tests, have found more favorable results, however. But, Karlsson and Löthgren (2000) and others have recently pointed out several potential pitfalls of panel unit-root tests. Thus, the panel unit-root test results are suggestive, but they are far from conclusive. Moreover, consistent individual country time series evidence that supports long-run purchasing power parity continues to be scarce. In this paper, we test for long memory using Lo's (1991) modified rescaled range test, and the rescaled variance test of Giraitis, Kokoszka, Leipus, and Teyssière (2003). Our testing procedure provides a non-parametric alternative to the parametric tests commonly used in this literature. Our data set consists of monthly observations from April 1973 to April 2001 of the G-7 countries in the OECD. Our two tests find conflicting results when we use U.S. dollar real exchange rates. However, when non-U.S. dollar real exchange rates are used, we find only two cases out of fifteen where the null hypothesis of an unit-root with short-term dependence can be rejected in favor of the alternative hypothesis of long-term dependence using the modified rescaled range test, and only one case when using the rescaled variance test. Our results therefore provide a contrast to the recent favorable panel unit-root test results.

Evaluation of the effectiveness of the Fresh and Healthy Program

Background. Diets high in fat and calories are promoted by the toxic food environment in which high fat, high calorie foods are readily accessible, thus contributing to high rates of overweight and obesity.^ Hypothesis. Changing the food environment to make low-fat, low-calorie foods readily identifiable and accessible while simultaneously offering incentives for choosing those foods will result in increased consumption of targeted foods, thus decreasing caloric and fat intake and ultimately decreasing obesity rates.^ Objective. To conduct an outcome evaluation study on the effectiveness of The Fresh & Healthy Program, a health promotion project designed to promote healthy eating among The Methodist Hospital employees by labeling and promoting low calorie, low fat items in the hospital cafeteria. ^ Program. By promoting healthy eating, this program seeks to address unhealthy dietary behaviors, one of the most widely known and influential behavioral causes of obesity. Food items that are included in the program meet nutritional criteria for calories and fat and are labeled with a special logo. Program participants receive incentives for purchasing Fresh & Healthy items. The program was designed and implemented by a team of registered dietitians, two health education specialists, and retail foodservice managers at The Methodist Hospital in the Texas Medical Center in Houston and has been in existence since April 2006.^ Methods. The evaluation uses a non-randomized, one-group, time series design to evaluate the effect of the program on sales of targeted food items.^ Key words. point-of-purchase, menu labeling, environmental obesity interventions, food pricing interventions ^

Point-of-sale machines in school cafeterias and parental influence on child food choices

The prevalence of obesity has reached epidemic proportions in the United States. Twenty-five percent of school aged students are overweight. Schools have the opportunity to help slow this epidemic. School cafeterias in the United States feed millions of students every day through the National School Lunch Program.^ Point-of-sale machines are used in most school cafeterias to help streamline the process of purchasing school lunches. The point-of-sale software allows school personnel to place special notes on student's accounts to provide alerts about parental requests. This study investigated what the alerts are used for, who uses the alerts, and if there are any patterns by demographic characteristics. ^ Counts and percentages were used to determine what the alerts were used for and who used them. This study found that students who were white non-Hispanic, paid status, or in elementary school were most likely to have alerts placed on their accounts. Also, the majority of point-of-sale alerts were used as allowances (i.e., allowed to purchase snacks from the balance on the school lunch account), rather than restrictions (i.e., restricted from purchasing high calorie foods or specific food items). Using chi-square analysis, a total of 688 alerts were analyzed. There were significant differences in alert frequencies for intent category by grade level (p=0.000), snack access (p=0.000), and gender (p=0.002). Therefore, the results are significant, and one can conclude there is a significant relationship between gender, grade level, and snack access, and the presence of an alert on the school lunch account.^ Also, school administrators may want to take into consideration possible changes to their program, such as requiring more time to run the software. The results of this study can assist school administrators to better understand that a point-of-sale alert program may help their school lunch programs run more efficiently, while also providing parental influence on students’ food choices at the point-of-sale.^ School food service authorities should consider implementing a structured point-of-sale alert policy to encourage parental input on their children's food choices. When implementing the point-of-sale policy, schools should publicize this policy online, through school lunch menus, and parent communications increase participation throughout the school district.^

Environmental sustainability and the human element: Decision making in National Cancer Institute-designated cancer centers and Practice Greenhealth subscribing institutions

Background. Various aspects of sustainability have taken root in the hospital environment; however, decisions to pursue sustainable practices within the framework of a master plan are not fully developed in National Cancer Institute (NCI) -designated cancer centers and subscribing institutions to the Practice Greenhealth (PGH) listserv.^ Methods. This cross sectional study was designed to identify the organizational characteristics each study group pursed to implement sustainability practices, describe the barriers they encountered and reasons behind their choices for undertaking certain sustainability practices. A web-based questionnaire was pilot tested, and then sent out to 64 NCI-designated cancer centers and 1638 subscribing institutions to the PGH listserv.^ Results. Complete responses were received from 39 NCI-designated cancer centers and 58 subscribing institutions to the PGH listserv. NCI-designated cancer centers reported greater progress in integrating sustainability criteria into design and construction projects than hospitals of institutions subscribing to the PHG listserv (p-value = <0.05). Statistically significant differences were also identified between these two study groups in undertaking work life options, conducting energy usage assessments, developing energy conservation and optimization plans, implementing solid waste and hazardous waste minimization programs, using energy efficient vehicles and reporting sustainability progress to external stakeholders. NCI-designated cancer centers were further along in implementing these programs (p-value = <0.05). In comparing the self-identified NCI-designated cancer centers to centers that indicated they were both and NCI and PGH, the later had made greater progress in using their collective buying power to pursue sustainable purchasing practices within the medical community (p-value = <0.05). In both study groups, recycling programs were well developed.^ Conclusions. Employee involvement was viewed as the most important reason for both study groups to pursue recycling initiatives and incorporated environmental criteria into purchasing decisions. A written sustainability commitment did not readily translate into a high percentage that had developed a sustainability master plan. Coordination of sustainability programs through a designated sustainability professional was not being undertaken by a large number of institutions within each study group. This may be due to the current economic downturn or management's attention to the emerging health care legislation being debated in congress. ^ Lifecycle assessments, an element of a carbon footprint, are seen as emerging areas of opportunity for health care institutions that can be used to evaluate the total lifecycle costs of products and services.^

A proposed application of the attributable risk technique in the assessment of unmet need among newly organized populations

In the midst of health care reform, and as health care organizations reorganize to provide more cost-effective healthcare, the population is being shifted into new healthcare delivery systems such as health insurance purchasing alliances, and health maintenance organizations. These new models of delivery are usually organized within resource restricted and data limited environments. Health care planners are faced with the challenge of identifying priorities for preventive and primary care services within these newly organized populations (Medicare HMO, Medicaid HMO, etc.). The author proposes a technique usually employed in epidemiology--attributable risk estimation--as a planning methodology to establish preventive health priorities within newly organized populations. Illustrations of the methodology are provided utilizing the Texas 1992 population. ^

Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program: A policy analysis of restricting foods with minimal nutritional value

In 2011, expenditures for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) reached an all-time high of $72 billion. The goal of SNAP is " to alleviate hunger and malnutrition…by increasing food purchasing power for all eligible households who apply for participation." It has been well established that proper nutrition is essential to good health, making SNAP an important program to public health consumers. Thus, this analysis examined whether SNAP is meeting its stated goal and whether the goal would be reduced if the purchase of foods of minimal nutritional value (FMNV) were restricted. ^ A review of existing literature found that SNAP has been shown to alleviate hunger, but the studies on the nutritional impact of the program were not sufficient to assert whether change is needed. When considering whether limiting FMNV would reduce or improve the effectiveness of SNAP at alleviating hunger and malnutrition, there is very little information on which to base a policy change, particular one that singles out a low income group to restrict purchases. ^ Several states have attempted to restrict the purchase of FMNV but, to date, no such change has been implemented or tested. Conducting pilot studies on the restriction of FMNV, along with better data collection on SNAP purchases, would guide policy changes to the program. Although there are many potential public health benefits to restricting FMNV purchase using SNAP dollars, research is needed to quantify the cost impact of these benefits.^

Efficiency from pharmacy inventory technology: A means to improving quality in non-profit hospitals

Hospitals, like all organizations, have both a mission and a finite supply of resources with which to accomplish that mission. Because the inventory of therapeutic drugs is among the more expensive resources needed by a hospital to achieve its mission, a conceptual model of structure plus process equals outcome posits that adequate emphasis should be placed on optimization of the organization's investment in this important structural resource to provide highest quality outcomes. Therefore emphasis should be placed on the optimization of pharmacy inventory because lowering the financial investment in drug inventory and associated costs increases productive efficiency, a key element of quality. ^ In this study, a post-intervention analysis of a hospital pharmacy inventory management technology implementation at The University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer Center was conducted to determine if an intervention which reduced a hospital's financial investment in pharmaceutical inventory provided an opportunity to incrementally optimize the organization's mix of structural resources thereby improving quality of care. The results suggest that hospital pharmacies currently lacking technology to support automated purchasing logistics and perpetual, real-time inventory management for drugs may achieve measurable benefits from the careful implementation of such technology, enabling the hospital to lower its investment in on-hand inventory and, potentially, to reduce overall purchasing expenditures. ^ The importance of these savings to the hospital and potentially to the patient should not be underestimated for their ability to generate funding for previously unfunded public health programs or in their ability to provide financial relief to patients in the form of lower drug costs given the current climate of escalating healthcare costs and tightening reimbursements.^

Hortalizas mínimamente procesadas en los supermercados de Buenos Aires

Previo a la crisis socioeconómica argentina de 2001, la distribución porcentual en la venta de frutas y hortalizas a nivel nacional era de 70% en comercios tradicionales y 30% en supermercados, y en centros urbanos 55 y 45%, respectivamente, valores que se mantuvieron luego de la caída coyuntural en la participación de la venta en supermercados. En el 2000, los productos hortícolas mínimamente procesados alcanzaron niveles de participación en supermercados cercanos al 10% sobre la facturación total de las mismas; luego de la crisis se redujo casi al 5%. El objetivo del estudio fue determinar la tendencia general del mercado y la oferta de productos mínimamente procesados en 2006 para detectar las preferencias de los consumidores. Se relevaron 58 bocas de expendio según cadenas de supermercados en Capital Federal y Gran Buenos Aires. Los productos relevados fueron seleccionados por datos históricos de venta y espacio en góndola. Se registró: forma de presentación, peso por unidad de venta, precio, volúmenes de venta y firmas elaboradoras. Actualmente, la participación de los productos mínimamente procesados en la venta de frutas y verduras de los supermercados alcanza el 8,86%. El 61% de la venta se concentra en 15% de las bocas de expendio pertenecientes a cadenas de mayor venta y nivel adquisitivo, 85% se ubica en el cordón norte de Capital Federal y del Gran Buenos Aires.

Cambio para optimizar la calidad de las prestaciones del Programa Oncológico Provincial

Considerando el alto costo farmacológico de los tratamientos oncológicos actuales y de los anticuerpos monoclonales pautados para diferentes terapias que están apareciendo y que serán prácticamente lo único que se use en el futuro para diferentes diagnósticos, el Programa Oncológico Provincial cubre sin cargo alguno las necesidades de los pacientes atendidos en Hospitales Estatales, cumpliendo una función social, dispensando los medicamentos solicitados por el médico tratante, en forma confiable, segura, y con equidad para recibir el tratamiento adecuado en el momento oportuno. Los recursos que pueden ser destinados al gasto farmacéutico son limitados, por lo que es necesario racionalizar el consumo y priorizar en la asignación de estos recursos a las opciones que presentan mayores ventajas económicas, basada en mantener una mejor relación costo/beneficio, repercutiendo de manera directa en los enfermos y en la sociedad en general. En este trabajo, se analiza el sistema de adquisición de drogas oncológicas usado por el Programa Oncológico Provincial realizando una comparación entre el sistema de compras original y el adoptado por el Programa en el año 2005. Se evalúa el periodo 2001-2007, en base a diversos indicadores y datos estadísticos, para determinar si ha mejorado la calidad de las prestaciones, si ha disminuido la demanda contenida y si se ha logrado mejorar la relación costo / beneficio, controlando así el gasto sanitario global lo que constituiría una inversión rentable para el sistema de salud. Los resultados indican que el nuevo sistema adoptado por el Programa Provincial de Oncología ha mejorado la provisión de medicamentos y garantiza mayor calidad en las prestaciones, pero estos resultados pueden ser superados. También muestra la gravedad del problema de la utilización de los nuevos fármacos monoclonales.

The wine hedonic price models in the "Old and New World": : state of the art

The basic hedonic hypothesis is that goods are valued for their utility-bearing characteristics and not for the good itself. Each attribute can be evaluated by consumers when making a purchasing decision and an implicit price can be identified for each of them. Thus, the observed price of a certain good can be analyzed as the sum of the implicit prices paid for each quality attribute. Literature has reported hedonic models estimates in the case of wines, which are excellent examples of differentiated goods worldwide.The impact of different wine attributes (intrinsic or extrinsic) on consumers’ willingness to pay has been analyzed with dissimilar results. Wines coming from "New World" producers seem to be appreciated for different attributes than wines produced in the "Old World". Moreover, "Old and New World" consumers seem to value differently the wine’s characteristics. To our knowledge, no cross country analysis has been done dealing with "New World" wines in "Old World" countries, leaving an important gap in understanding underlying attributes influencing buying decisions.

El Proceso de precarización en el mercado de trabajo del Gran La Plata. Principales características y tendencias actuales (2003-2004)

El objetivo del presente artículo es identificar las principales características y tendencias del trabajo precario en el Gran La Plata considerando la dinámica económica nacional actual. Tomando como parámetro el empleo pleno, pueden identificarse distintos grados de precariedad según la carencia de los atributos que caracterizan dicha plenitud. Existiría así una gradación de situaciones, con una referencia máxima en el empleo pleno hasta una mínima en el desempleo absoluto. El análisis partió de procesamientos propios de datos brindados por la Encuesta Permanente de Hogares (EPH). Abarca el período comprendido entre el segundo semestre de 2003 y el primero del 2004, debido a que tras la reformulación EPH sólo se dispone a la fecha de información específica de ese período. Los resultados del trabajo realizado dan cuenta de que, en la región, los trabajadores precarios representan el 39,3 de la PEA en el primer semestre de 2004. Si se suma el sector de los desocupados, la Población con Problemas de Empleo supera el 50 y muestra la presión que ejercen sobre el mercado laboral los subocupados demandantes. En el sector estatal, el 16,4 de los empleados están precarizados. Si se suman los beneficiarios de planes de empleo la cifra se eleva al 34. En el sector privado, el empleo precario comprende al 54 de sus trabajadores. Respecto a la evolución de los ingresos aun en los grupos de ocupados que mejoraron su capacidad de consumo entre 2003 y 2004, los niveles de ingresos alcanzados se hallan muy por debajo de los que percibían antes de la devaluación de 2002. Los principales aportes del trabajo consisten en la identificación, cuantificación y caracterización del empleo precario en la región en la etapa post-devaluación, sobre el análisis de la Base Usuaria de la EPH.

Dos Quijotes parecidos (1780-1797) : Cotejo de Programas Iconográficos

El presente trabajo está enfocado en algunos aspectos de la iconografía en diferentes ediciones del Quijote. Los resultados se desprenden de una investigación que aún se encuentra en curso, orientada a indagar y problematizar la recepción de la obra en diversos lugares y momentos. La iconografía presente en diversas ediciones nos permite acercarnos, al menos de manera parcial, a la recepción de la obra, atendiendo a diferentes problemáticas que se plasman en las imágenes, tales como el tipo del público al que estaba dirigido según su poder adquisitivo o el tipo de lectura que se realizaba del texto, entre otras cosas. En la investigación desarrollada se han cotejado diversas ediciones de la obra incluidas en la Colección Cervantina de la Biblioteca Pública de la Universidad Nacional de La Plata, con el fin de analizar dicha problemática para ampliar con un pequeño aporte el panorama de interpretación de la obra

El Proceso de precarización en el mercado de trabajo del Gran La Plata. Principales características y tendencias actuales (2003-2004)

El objetivo del presente artículo es identificar las principales características y tendencias del trabajo precario en el Gran La Plata considerando la dinámica económica nacional actual. Tomando como parámetro el empleo pleno, pueden identificarse distintos grados de precariedad según la carencia de los atributos que caracterizan dicha plenitud. Existiría así una gradación de situaciones, con una referencia máxima en el empleo pleno hasta una mínima en el desempleo absoluto. El análisis partió de procesamientos propios de datos brindados por la Encuesta Permanente de Hogares (EPH). Abarca el período comprendido entre el segundo semestre de 2003 y el primero del 2004, debido a que tras la reformulación EPH sólo se dispone a la fecha de información específica de ese período. Los resultados del trabajo realizado dan cuenta de que, en la región, los trabajadores precarios representan el 39,3 de la PEA en el primer semestre de 2004. Si se suma el sector de los desocupados, la Población con Problemas de Empleo supera el 50 y muestra la presión que ejercen sobre el mercado laboral los subocupados demandantes. En el sector estatal, el 16,4 de los empleados están precarizados. Si se suman los beneficiarios de planes de empleo la cifra se eleva al 34. En el sector privado, el empleo precario comprende al 54 de sus trabajadores. Respecto a la evolución de los ingresos aun en los grupos de ocupados que mejoraron su capacidad de consumo entre 2003 y 2004, los niveles de ingresos alcanzados se hallan muy por debajo de los que percibían antes de la devaluación de 2002. Los principales aportes del trabajo consisten en la identificación, cuantificación y caracterización del empleo precario en la región en la etapa post-devaluación, sobre el análisis de la Base Usuaria de la EPH.