Detecting Earnings Management Using Neural Networks

Detecting Earnings Management Using Neural Networks. Trying to balance between relevant and reliable accounting data, generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) allow, to some extent, the company management to use their judgment and to make subjective assessments when preparing financial statements. The opportunistic use of the discretion in financial reporting is called earnings management. There have been a considerable number of suggestions of methods for detecting accrual based earnings management. A majority of these methods are based on linear regression. The problem with using linear regression is that a linear relationship between the dependent variable and the independent variables must be assumed. However, previous research has shown that the relationship between accruals and some of the explanatory variables, such as company performance, is non-linear. An alternative to linear regression, which can handle non-linear relationships, is neural networks. The type of neural network used in this study is the feed-forward back-propagation neural network. Three neural network-based models are compared with four commonly used linear regression-based earnings management detection models. All seven models are based on the earnings management detection model presented by Jones (1991). The performance of the models is assessed in three steps. First, a random data set of companies is used. Second, the discretionary accruals from the random data set are ranked according to six different variables. The discretionary accruals in the highest and lowest quartiles for these six variables are then compared. Third, a data set containing simulated earnings management is used. Both expense and revenue manipulation ranging between -5% and 5% of lagged total assets is simulated. Furthermore, two neural network-based models and two linear regression-based models are used with a data set containing financial statement data from 110 failed companies. Overall, the results show that the linear regression-based models, except for the model using a piecewise linear approach, produce biased estimates of discretionary accruals. The neural network-based model with the original Jones model variables and the neural network-based model augmented with ROA as an independent variable, however, perform well in all three steps. Especially in the second step, where the highest and lowest quartiles of ranked discretionary accruals are examined, the neural network-based model augmented with ROA as an independent variable outperforms the other models.

Robust/optimal temperature profile control using neural networks

An approximate dynamic programming (ADP) based neurocontroller is developed for a heat transfer application. Heat transfer problem for a fin in a car's electronic module is modeled as a nonlinear distributed parameter (infinite-dimensional) system by taking into account heat loss and generation due to conduction, convection and radiation. A low-order, finite-dimensional lumped parameter model for this problem is obtained by using Galerkin projection and basis functions designed through the 'Proper Orthogonal Decomposition' technique (POD) and the 'snap-shot' solutions. A suboptimal neurocontroller is obtained with a single-network-adaptive-critic (SNAC). Further contribution of this paper is to develop an online robust controller to account for unmodeled dynamics and parametric uncertainties. A weight update rule is presented that guarantees boundedness of the weights and eliminates the need for persistence of excitation (PE) condition to be satisfied. Since, the ADP and neural network based controllers are of fairly general structure, they appear to have the potential to be controller synthesis tools for nonlinear distributed parameter systems especially where it is difficult to obtain an accurate model.

Design of a FIR filter for image restoration using principal component neural networks

The neural network finds its application in many image denoising applications because of its inherent characteristics such as nonlinear mapping and self-adaptiveness. The design of filters largely depends on the a-priori knowledge about the type of noise. Due to this, standard filters are application and image specific. Widely used filtering algorithms reduce noisy artifacts by smoothing. However, this operation normally results in smoothing of the edges as well. On the other hand, sharpening filters enhance the high frequency details making the image non-smooth. An integrated general approach to design a finite impulse response filter based on principal component neural network (PCNN) is proposed in this study for image filtering, optimized in the sense of visual inspection and error metric. This algorithm exploits the inter-pixel correlation by iteratively updating the filter coefficients using PCNN. This algorithm performs optimal smoothing of the noisy image by preserving high and low frequency features. Evaluation results show that the proposed filter is robust under various noise distributions. Further, the number of unknown parameters is very few and most of these parameters are adaptively obtained from the processed image.

Optimal Blood Glucose Regulation using Single Network Adaptive Critics

Diabetes is a serious disease during which the body's production and use of insulin is impaired, causing glucose concentration level toincrease in the bloodstream. Regulating blood glucose levels as close to normal as possible, leads to a substantial decrease in long term complications of diabetes. In this paper, an intelligent neural network on-line optimal feedback treatment strategy based on nonlinear optimal control theory is presented for the disease using subcutaneous treatment strategy. A simple mathematical model of the nonlinear dynamics of glucose and insulin interaction in the blood system is considered based on the Bergman's minimal model. A glucose infusion term representing the effect of glucose intake resulting from a meal is introduced into the model equations. The efficiency of the proposed controllers is shown taking random parameters and random initial conditions in presence of physical disturbances like food intake. A comparison study with linear quadratic regulator theory brings Out the advantages of the nonlinear control synthesis approach. Simulation results show that unlike linear optimal control, the proposed on-line continuous infusion strategy never leads to severe hypoglycemia problems.

Power System Stability Enhancement by Single Network Adaptive Critic Stabilizers

This paper proposes a Single Network Adaptive Critic (SNAC) based Power System Stabilizer (PSS) for enhancing the small-signal stability of power systems over a wide range of operating conditions. SNAC uses only a single critic neural network instead of the action-critic dual network architecture of typical adaptive critic designs. SNAC eliminates the iterative training loops between the action and critic networks and greatly simplifies the training procedure. The performance of the proposed PSS has been tested on a Single Machine Infinite Bus test system for various system and loading conditions. The proposed stabilizer, which is relatively easier to synthesize, consistently outperformed stabilizers based on conventional lead-lag and linear quadratic regulator designs.

Voltage and Temperature Aware Statistical Leakage Analysis Framework Using Artificial Neural Networks

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have shown great promise in modeling circuit parameters for computer aided design applications. Leakage currents, which depend on process parameters, supply voltage and temperature can be modeled accurately with ANNs. However, the complex nature of the ANN model, with the standard sigmoidal activation functions, does not allow analytical expressions for its mean and variance. We propose the use of a new activation function that allows us to derive an analytical expression for the mean and a semi-analytical expression for the variance of the ANN-based leakage model. To the best of our knowledge this is the first result in this direction. Our neural network model also includes the voltage and temperature as input parameters, thereby enabling voltage and temperature aware statistical leakage analysis (SLA). All existing SLA frameworks are closely tied to the exponential polynomial leakage model and hence fail to work with sophisticated ANN models. In this paper, we also set up an SLA framework that can efficiently work with these ANN models. Results show that the cumulative distribution function of leakage current of ISCAS'85 circuits can be predicted accurately with the error in mean and standard deviation, compared to Monte Carlo-based simulations, being less than 1% and 2% respectively across a range of voltage and temperature values.

Composite MR image reconstruction and unaliasing for general trajectories using neural networks

In rapid parallel magnetic resonance imaging, the problem of image reconstruction is challenging. Here, a novel image reconstruction technique for data acquired along any general trajectory in neural network framework, called ``Composite Reconstruction And Unaliasing using Neural Networks'' (CRAUNN), is proposed. CRAUNN is based on the observation that the nature of aliasing remains unchanged whether the undersampled acquisition contains only low frequencies or includes high frequencies too. Here, the transformation needed to reconstruct the alias-free image from the aliased coil images is learnt, using acquisitions consisting of densely sampled low frequencies. Neural networks are made use of as machine learning tools to learn the transformation, in order to obtain the desired alias-free image for actual acquisitions containing sparsely sampled low as well as high frequencies. CRAUNN operates in the image domain and does not require explicit coil sensitivity estimation. It is also independent of the sampling trajectory used, and could be applied to arbitrary trajectories as well. As a pilot trial, the technique is first applied to Cartesian trajectory-sampled data. Experiments performed using radial and spiral trajectories on real and synthetic data, illustrate the performance of the method. The reconstruction errors depend on the acceleration factor as well as the sampling trajectory. It is found that higher acceleration factors can be obtained when radial trajectories are used. Comparisons against existing techniques are presented. CRAUNN has been found to perform on par with the state-of-the-art techniques. Acceleration factors of up to 4, 6 and 4 are achieved in Cartesian, radial and spiral cases, respectively. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Robust/Optimal Temperature Profile Control of a High-Speed Aerospace Vehicle Using Neural Networks

An approximate dynamic programming (ADP)-based suboptimal neurocontroller to obtain desired temperature for a high-speed aerospace vehicle is synthesized in this paper. A I-D distributed parameter model of a fin is developed from basic thermal physics principles. "Snapshot" solutions of the dynamics are generated with a simple dynamic inversion-based feedback controller. Empirical basis functions are designed using the "proper orthogonal decomposition" (POD) technique and the snapshot solutions. A low-order nonlinear lumped parameter system to characterize the infinite dimensional system is obtained by carrying out a Galerkin projection. An ADP-based neurocontroller with a dual heuristic programming (DHP) formulation is obtained with a single-network-adaptive-critic (SNAC) controller for this approximate nonlinear model. Actual control in the original domain is calculated with the same POD basis functions through a reverse mapping. Further contribution of this paper includes development of an online robust neurocontroller to account for unmodeled dynamics and parametric uncertainties inherent in such a complex dynamic system. A neural network (NN) weight update rule that guarantees boundedness of the weights and relaxes the need for persistence of excitation (PE) condition is presented. Simulation studies show that in a fairly extensive but compact domain, any desired temperature profile can be achieved starting from any initial temperature profile. Therefore, the ADP and NN-based controllers appear to have the potential to become controller synthesis tools for nonlinear distributed parameter systems.

A single network adaptive critic (SNAC) architecture for optimal control synthesis for a class of nonlinear systems

Even though dynamic programming offers an optimal control solution in a state feedback form, the method is overwhelmed by computational and storage requirements. Approximate dynamic programming implemented with an Adaptive Critic (AC) neural network structure has evolved as a powerful alternative technique that obviates the need for excessive computations and storage requirements in solving optimal control problems. In this paper, an improvement to the AC architecture, called the �Single Network Adaptive Critic (SNAC)� is presented. This approach is applicable to a wide class of nonlinear systems where the optimal control (stationary) equation can be explicitly expressed in terms of the state and costate variables. The selection of this terminology is guided by the fact that it eliminates the use of one neural network (namely the action network) that is part of a typical dual network AC setup. As a consequence, the SNAC architecture offers three potential advantages: a simpler architecture, lesser computational load and elimination of the approximation error associated with the eliminated network. In order to demonstrate these benefits and the control synthesis technique using SNAC, two problems have been solved with the AC and SNAC approaches and their computational performances are compared. One of these problems is a real-life Micro-Electro-Mechanical-system (MEMS) problem, which demonstrates that the SNAC technique is applicable to complex engineering systems.

Optimal management of beaver population using a reduced-order distributed parameter model and single network adaptive critics

Beavers are often found to be in conflict with human interests by creating nuisances like building dams on flowing water (leading to flooding), blocking irrigation canals, cutting down timbers, etc. At the same time they contribute to raising water tables, increased vegetation, etc. Consequently, maintaining an optimal beaver population is beneficial. Because of their diffusion externality (due to migratory nature), strategies based on lumped parameter models are often ineffective. Using a distributed parameter model for beaver population that accounts for their spatial and temporal behavior, an optimal control (trapping) strategy is presented in this paper that leads to a desired distribution of the animal density in a region in the long run. The optimal control solution presented, imbeds the solution for a large number of initial conditions (i.e., it has a feedback form), which is otherwise nontrivial to obtain. The solution obtained can be used in real-time by a nonexpert in control theory since it involves only using the neural networks trained offline. Proper orthogonal decomposition-based basis function design followed by their use in a Galerkin projection has been incorporated in the solution process as a model reduction technique. Optimal solutions are obtained through a "single network adaptive critic" (SNAC) neural-network architecture.

Optimal blood glucose regulation of diabetic patients using single network adaptive critics

Diabetes is a long-term disease during which the body's production and use of insulin are impaired, causing glucose concentration level to increase in the bloodstream. Regulating blood glucose levels as close to normal as possible leads to a substantial decrease in long-term complications of diabetes. In this paper, an intelligent online feedback-treatment strategy is presented for the control of blood glucose levels in diabetic patients using single network adaptive critic (SNAC) neural networks (which is based on nonlinear optimal control theory). A recently developed mathematical model of the nonlinear dynamics of glucose and insulin interaction in the blood system has been revised and considered for synthesizing the neural network for feedback control. The idea is to replicate the function of pancreatic insulin, i.e. to have a fairly continuous measurement of blood glucose and a situation-dependent insulin injection to the body using an external device. Detailed studies are carried out to analyze the effectiveness of this adaptive critic-based feedback medication strategy. A comparison study with linear quadratic regulator (LQR) theory shows that the proposed nonlinear approach offers some important advantages such as quicker response, avoidance of hypoglycemia problems, etc. Robustness of the proposed approach is also demonstrated from a large number of simulations considering random initial conditions and parametric uncertainties. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Volume Change behaviour in Calcitic Soil influenced with Sulphuric Acid using Artificial Neural Networks

This paper elucidates the methodology of applying artificial neural network model (ANNM) to predict the percent swell of calcitic soil in sulphuric acid solutions, a complex phenomenon involving many parameters. Swell data required for modelling is experimentally obtained using conventional oedometer tests under nominal surcharge. The phases in ANN include optimal design of architecture, operation and training of architecture. The designed optimal neural model (3-5-1) is a fully connected three layer feed forward network with symmetric sigmoid activation function and trained by the back propagation algorithm to minimize a quadratic error criterion.The used model requires parameters such as duration of interaction, calcite mineral content and acid concentration for prediction of swell. The observed strong correlation coefficient (R2 = 0.9979) between the values determined by the experiment and predicted using the developed model demonstrates that the network can provide answers to complex problems in geotechnical engineering.

Stress-Strain Prediction of Jointed Rocks using Artificial Neural Networks

The applicability of Artificial Neural Networks for predicting the stress-strain response of jointed rocks at varied confining pressures, strength properties and joint properties (frequency, orientation and strength of joints) has been studied in the present paper. The database is formed from the triaxial compression tests on different jointed rocks with different confining pressures and different joint properties reported by various researchers. This input data covers a wide range of rock strengths, varying from very soft to very hard. The network was trained using a 3 layered network with feed forward back propagation algorithm. About 85% of the data was used for training and remaining15% for testing the predicting capabilities of the network. Results from the analyses were very encouraging and demonstrated that the neural network approach is efficient in capturing the complex stress-strain behaviour of jointed rocks. A single neural network is demonstrated to be capable of predicting the stress-strain response of different rocks, whose intact strength vary from 11.32 MPa to 123 MPa and spacing of joints vary from 10 cm to 100 cm for confining pressures ranging from 0 to 13.8 MPa.

Tractable theories for the synthesis of neural networks

The Radius of Direct attraction of a discrete neural network is a measure of stability of the network. it is known that Hopfield networks designed using Hebb's Rule have a radius of direct attraction of Omega(n/p) where n is the size of the input patterns and p is the number of them. This lower bound is tight if p is no larger than 4. We construct a family of such networks with radius of direct attraction Omega(n/root plog p), for any p greater than or equal to 5. The techniques used to prove the result led us to the first polynomial-time algorithm for designing a neural network with maximum radius of direct attraction around arbitrary input patterns. The optimal synaptic matrix is computed using the ellipsoid method of linear programming in conjunction with an efficient separation oracle. Restrictions of symmetry and non-negative diagonal entries in the synaptic matrix can be accommodated within this scheme.

Prediction of Ground Water Levels in the Uplands of a Tropical Coastal Riparian Wetland using Artificial Neural Networks

Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have been found to be a robust tool to model many non-linear hydrological processes. The present study aims at evaluating the performance of ANN in simulating and predicting ground water levels in the uplands of a tropical coastal riparian wetland. The study involves comparison of two network architectures, Feed Forward Neural Network (FFNN) and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) trained under five algorithms namely Levenberg Marquardt algorithm, Resilient Back propagation algorithm, BFGS Quasi Newton algorithm, Scaled Conjugate Gradient algorithm, and Fletcher Reeves Conjugate Gradient algorithm by simulating the water levels in a well in the study area. The study is analyzed in two cases-one with four inputs to the networks and two with eight inputs to the networks. The two networks-five algorithms in both the cases are compared to determine the best performing combination that could simulate and predict the process satisfactorily. Ad Hoc (Trial and Error) method is followed in optimizing network structure in all cases. On the whole, it is noticed from the results that the Artificial Neural Networks have simulated and predicted the water levels in the well with fair accuracy. This is evident from low values of Normalized Root Mean Square Error and Relative Root Mean Square Error and high values of Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency Index and Correlation Coefficient (which are taken as the performance measures to calibrate the networks) calculated after the analysis. On comparison of ground water levels predicted with those at the observation well, FFNN trained with Fletcher Reeves Conjugate Gradient algorithm taken four inputs has outperformed all other combinations.