Design and market considerations for axial flux superconducting electric machine design

In this paper, the authors investigate a number of design and market considerations for an axial flux superconducting electric machine design that uses high temperature superconductors. The axial flux machine design is assumed to utilise high temperature superconductors in both wire (stator winding) and bulk (rotor field) forms, to operate over a temperature range of 65-77 K, and to have a power output in the range from 10s of kW up to 1 MW (typical for axial flux machines), with approximately 2-3 T as the peak trapped field in the bulk superconductors. The authors firstly investigate the applicability of this type of machine as a generator in small- and medium-sized wind turbines, including the current and forecasted market and pricing for conventional turbines. Next, a study is also carried out on the machine's applicability as an in-wheel hub motor for electric vehicles. Some recommendations for future applications are made based on the outcome of these two studies. Finally, the cost of YBCO-based superconducting (2G HTS) wire is analysed with respect to competing wire technologies and compared with current conventional material costs and current wire costs for both 1G and 2G HTS are still too great to be economically feasible for such superconducting devices.

一种非线性的分布式网格资源调价算法

针对网格环境下分布式异步动态调价算法存在均衡价格收敛过程缓慢、调价效率较低的缺点,提出了一种基于市场机制的非线性调价算法。该算法结合了当前超额需求和过去超额需求对资源价格变化的影响,较真实地刻画了需求变化后资源价格的波动过程。实验证明,非线性的调价算法明显地提高了价格收敛速度,降低了调价次数。

A Radial Basis Function Approach to Financial Time Series Analysis

Nonlinear multivariate statistical techniques on fast computers offer the potential to capture more of the dynamics of the high dimensional, noisy systems underlying financial markets than traditional models, while making fewer restrictive assumptions. This thesis presents a collection of practical techniques to address important estimation and confidence issues for Radial Basis Function networks arising from such a data driven approach, including efficient methods for parameter estimation and pruning, a pointwise prediction error estimator, and a methodology for controlling the "data mining'' problem. Novel applications in the finance area are described, including customized, adaptive option pricing and stock price prediction.

How smokers may react to cigarette taxes and price increases in Brazil: data from a national survey

Background: Despite being the third largest tobacco producer in the world, Brazil has developed a comprehensive tobacco control policy that includes a broad restriction on both advertising and smoking in indoor public places, compulsory pictorial warning labels, and a menthol cigarette ban. However, tax and pricing policies have been developed slowly and only very recently were stronger measures implemented. This study investigated the expected responses of smokers to hypothetical price increases in Brazil.Methods: We analyzed smokers' responses to hypothetical future price increases according to sociodemographic characteristics and smoking conditions in a multistage sample of Brazilian current cigarette smokers aged >= 14 years (n = 500). Logistic regression analysis was used to examine the relationship between possible responses and different predictors.Results: in most subgroups investigated, smokers most frequently said they would react to a hypothetical price increase by taking up alternatives that might have a positive impact on health, i.e., they would try to stop smoking (52.3%) or smoke fewer cigarettes (46.8%). However, a considerable percentage responded that they would use alternatives that would reduce the effect of price increases, such as the same brand with lower cost (48.1%). After controlling for sex age group (14-19, 20-39, 40-59, and >= 60 years), schooling level (>= 9 versus <= 9 years), number of cigarettes per day (>20 versus <= 20), and stage of change for smoking cessation (precontemplation, contemplation, and preparation), lower levels of dependence were positively associated with the response I would try to stop smoking (odds ratio [OR], 2.19). Young age was associated with I would decrease the number of cigarettes (OR, 3.44). A low schooling level was strongly associated with all responses.Conclusions: Taxes and prices increases have great potential to stimulate cessation or reduction of cigarette consumption further among two important vulnerable populations of smokers in Brazil: young smokers and those of low educational level. the results from the present study also suggest that seeking illegal products may reduce the impact of increased taxes, but does not eliminate it.

Il Sistema di Revenue Management strumento per lo sviluppo turistico sostenibile delle destinazioni

Businesses interact constantly with the environment, realizing several and heterogeneous exchanges. Organizations can be considered a system of different interests, frequently conflicting and the satisfaction of different stakeholders is a condition of success and survival. National and international literature attempts to explain the complex connection between companies and environment. In particular, the Stakeholder Theory considers crucial for businesses the identification of different stakeholders and their involvement in decision-making process. In this context, profit can not be considered the only purpose of companies existence and business aims become more numerous and different. The Stakeholder Theory is often utilized as framework for tourism studies, in particular in Sustainable Tourism Development research. In fact, authors consider sustainable the tourism development able to satisfy interests of different stakeholders, traditionally identified as local community and government, businesses, tourists and natural environment. Tourism businesses have to guarantee the optimal use of natural resources, the respect of socio-cultural tradition of local community and the creation of socio-economic benefits for all stakeholders in destinations. An obstacle to sustainable tourism development that characterizes a number of destinations worldwide is tourism demand seasonality. In fact, its negative impact on the environment, economy and communities may be highly significant. Pollution, difficulties in the use of public services, stress for residents, seasonal incomes, are all examples of the negative effects of seasonality. According to the World Tourism Organization (2004) the limitation of seasonality can favour the sustainability of tourism. Literature suggests private and public strategies to minimize the negative effects of tourism seasonality, as diversification of tourism products, identification of new market segments, launching events, application of public instruments like eco-taxes and use of differential pricing policies. Revenue Management is a managerial system based on differential pricing and able to affect price sensitive tourists. This research attempts to verify if Revenue Management, created to maximize profits in tourism companies, can also mitigate the seasonality of tourism demand, producing benefits for different stakeholders of destinations and contributing to Sustainable Tourism Development. In particular, the study attempts to answer the following research questions: 1) Can Revenue Management control the flow of tourist demand? 2) Can Revenue Management limit seasonality, producing benefits for different stakeholders of a destination? 3) Can Revenue Management favor the development of Sustainable Tourism? The literature review on Stakeholder Theory, Sustainable Tourism Development, tourism seasonality and Revenue Management forms the foundation of the research, based on a case study approach looking at a significant destination located in the Southern coast of Sardinia, Italy. A deductive methodology was applied and qualitative and quantitative methods were utilized. This study shows that Revenue Management has the potential to limit tourism seasonality, to mitigate negative impacts occurring from tourism activities, producing benefits for local community and to contribute to Sustainable Tourism Development.

The total margin of exposure of ethanol and acetaldehyde for heavy drinkers consuming cider or vodka

Heavy drinkers in Scotland may consume 1600 g ethanol per week. Due to its low price, cider may be preferred over other beverages. Anecdotal evidence has linked cider to specific health hazards beyond other alcoholic beverages. To examine this hypothesis, nine apple and pear cider samples were chemically analysed for constituents and contaminants. None of the products exceeded regulatory or toxicological thresholds, but the regular occurrence of acetaldehyde in cider was detected. To provide a quantitative risk assessment, two collectives of exclusive drinkers of cider and vodka were compared and the intake of acetaldehyde was estimated using probabilistic MonteeCarlo type analysis. The cider consumers were found to ingest more than 200-times the amount of acetaldehyde consumed by vodka consumers. The margins of exposure (MOE) of acetaldehyde were 224 for the cider and over 220,000 for vodka consumers. However, if the effects of ethanol were considered in a cumulative assessment of the combined MOE, the effect of acetaldehyde was minor and the combined MOE for both groups was 0.3. We suggest that alcohol policy priority should be given on reducing ethanol intake by measures such as minimum pricing, rather than to focus on acetaldehyde.

Impact of postponement on transportation: An environmental perspective

Yang, Ying, Yang, Biao, and Wijngaard, Jacob, ' Impact of postponement on transportation: An environmental perspective', International Journal of Logistics Management (2005) 16(2) pp.192-204 RAE2008

The role of payout ratio in the relationship between stock returns and dividend yield

ap Gwilym, Owain, McManus, Ian, and Thomas, Stephen, 'The role of payout ratio in the relationship between stock returns and dividend yield', Journal of Business Finance & Accounting (2004) 31(9-10) pp.1355-1387 RAE2008

A reorganização da farmácia comunitária face à nova realidade económica

Projeto de Pós-Graduação/Dissertação apresentado à Universidade Fernando Pessoa como parte dos requisitos para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Ciências Farmacêuticas

The Retail Market for Bednets in Kenya: How Well Is It Working?

Background Achieving the goals set by Roll Back Malaria and the Government of Kenya for use of insecticide treated bednets (ITNs) will require that the private retail market for nets and insecticide treatments grow substantially. This paper applies some basic concepts of market structure and pricing to a set of recently-collected retail price data from Kenya in order to answer the question, “How well are Kenyan retail markets for ITNs working?” Methods Data on the availability and prices of ITNs at a wide range of retail outlets throughout Kenya were collected in January 2002, and vendors and manufacturers were interviewed regarding market structure. Findings Untreated nets are manufactured in Kenya by a number of companies and are widely available in large and medium-sized towns. Availability in smaller villages is limited. There is relatively little geographic price variation, and nets can be found at competitive prices in towns and cities. Marketing margins on prices appear to be within normal ranges. No finished nets are imported. Few pre-treated nets or net+treatment combinations are available, with the exception of the subsidized Supanet/Power Tab combination marketed by a donor-funded social marketing project. Conclusions Retail markets for untreated nets in Kenya are well established and appear to be competitive. Markets for treated nets and insecticide treatment kits are not well established. The role of subsidized ITN marketing projects should be monitored to ensure that these projects support, rather than hinder, the development of retail markets.

Trade & Cap: A Customer-Managed, Market-Based System for Trading Bandwidth Allowances at a Shared Link

We propose Trade & Cap (T&C), an economics-inspired mechanism that incentivizes users to voluntarily coordinate their consumption of the bandwidth of a shared resource (e.g., a DSLAM link) so as to converge on what they perceive to be an equitable allocation, while ensuring efficient resource utilization. Under T&C, rather than acting as an arbiter, an Internet Service Provider (ISP) acts as an enforcer of what the community of rational users sharing the resource decides is a fair allocation of that resource. Our T&C mechanism proceeds in two phases. In the first, software agents acting on behalf of users engage in a strategic trading game in which each user agent selfishly chooses bandwidth slots to reserve in support of primary, interactive network usage activities. In the second phase, each user is allowed to acquire additional bandwidth slots in support of presumed open-ended need for fluid bandwidth, catering to secondary applications. The acquisition of this fluid bandwidth is subject to the remaining "buying power" of each user and by prevalent "market prices" – both of which are determined by the results of the trading phase and a desirable aggregate cap on link utilization. We present analytical results that establish the underpinnings of our T&C mechanism, including game-theoretic results pertaining to the trading phase, and pricing of fluid bandwidth allocation pertaining to the capping phase. Using real network traces, we present extensive experimental results that demonstrate the benefits of our scheme, which we also show to be practical by highlighting the salient features of an efficient implementation architecture.

Financial modelling with 2-EPT probability density functions

The class of all Exponential-Polynomial-Trigonometric (EPT) functions is classical and equal to the Euler-d’Alembert class of solutions of linear differential equations with constant coefficients. The class of non-negative EPT functions defined on [0;1) was discussed in Hanzon and Holland (2010) of which EPT probability density functions are an important subclass. EPT functions can be represented as ceAxb, where A is a square matrix, b a column vector and c a row vector where the triple (A; b; c) is the minimal realization of the EPT function. The minimal triple is only unique up to a basis transformation. Here the class of 2-EPT probability density functions on R is defined and shown to be closed under a variety of operations. The class is also generalised to include mixtures with the pointmass at zero. This class coincides with the class of probability density functions with rational characteristic functions. It is illustrated that the Variance Gamma density is a 2-EPT density under a parameter restriction. A discrete 2-EPT process is a process which has stochastically independent 2-EPT random variables as increments. It is shown that the distribution of the minimum and maximum of such a process is an EPT density mixed with a pointmass at zero. The Laplace Transform of these distributions correspond to the discrete time Wiener-Hopf factors of the discrete time 2-EPT process. A distribution of daily log-returns, observed over the period 1931-2011 from a prominent US index, is approximated with a 2-EPT density function. Without the non-negativity condition, it is illustrated how this problem is transformed into a discrete time rational approximation problem. The rational approximation software RARL2 is used to carry out this approximation. The non-negativity constraint is then imposed via a convex optimisation procedure after the unconstrained approximation. Sufficient and necessary conditions are derived to characterise infinitely divisible EPT and 2-EPT functions. Infinitely divisible 2-EPT density functions generate 2-EPT Lévy processes. An assets log returns can be modelled as a 2-EPT Lévy process. Closed form pricing formulae are then derived for European Options with specific times to maturity. Formulae for discretely monitored Lookback Options and 2-Period Bermudan Options are also provided. Certain Greeks, including Delta and Gamma, of these options are also computed analytically. MATLAB scripts are provided for calculations involving 2-EPT functions. Numerical option pricing examples illustrate the effectiveness of the 2-EPT approach to financial modelling.

Investment incentives and valuation of power sector infrastructure assets with increasing interconnection, intermittency and decarbonisation

This dissertation applies a variety of quantitative methods to electricity and carbon market data, utility company accounts data, capital and operating costs to analyse some of the challenges associated with investment in energy assets. In particular, three distinct research topics are analysed within this general theme: the efficiency of interconnector trading, the optimal sizing of intermittent wind facilities and the impact of carbon pricing on the cost of capital for investors are researched in successive sections.

A study of the Hobson and Rogers volatility model

We firstly examine the model of Hobson and Rogers for the volatility of a financial asset such as a stock or share. The main feature of this model is the specification of volatility in terms of past price returns. The volatility process and the underlying price process share the same source of randomness and so the model is said to be complete. Complete models are advantageous as they allow a unique, preference independent price for options on the underlying price process. One of the main objectives of the model is to reproduce the `smiles' and `skews' seen in the market implied volatilities and this model produces the desired effect. In the first main piece of work we numerically calibrate the model of Hobson and Rogers for comparison with existing literature. We also develop parameter estimation methods based on the calibration of a GARCH model. We examine alternative specifications of the volatility and show an improvement of model fit to market data based on these specifications. We also show how to process market data in order to take account of inter-day movements in the volatility surface. In the second piece of work, we extend the Hobson and Rogers model in a way that better reflects market structure. We extend the model to take into account both first and second order effects. We derive and numerically solve the pde which describes the price of options under this extended model. We show that this extension allows for a better fit to the market data. Finally, we analyse the parameters of this extended model in order to understand intuitively the role of these parameters in the volatility surface.

A new proposition on the martingale representation theorem and on the approximate hedging of contingent claim in mean-variance criterion

In this work we revisit the problem of the hedging of contingent claim using mean-square criterion. We prove that in incomplete market, some probability measure can be identified so that becomes -martingale under .This is in fact a new proposition on the martingale representation theorem. The new results also identify a weight function that serves to be an approximation to the Radon-Nikodým derivative of the unique neutral martingale measure.