Bayesian modelling of surveillance and proof of freedom : the mathematical, logical & psychological challenges

Keeping exotic plant pests out of our country relies on good border control or quarantine. However with increasing globalization and mobilization some things slip through. Then the back up systems become important. This can include an expensive form of surveillance that purposively targets particular pests. A much wider net is provided by general surveillance, which is assimilated into everyday activities, like farmers checking the health of their crops. In fact farmers and even home gardeners have provided a front line warning system for some pests (eg European wasp) that could otherwise have wreaked havoc. Mathematics is used to model how surveillance works in various situations. Within this virtual world we can play with various surveillance and management strategies to "see" how they would work, or how to make them work better. One of our greatest challenges is estimating some of the input parameters : because the pest hasn't been here before, it's hard to predict how well it might behave: establishing, spreading, and what types of symptoms it might express. So we rely on experts to help us with this. This talk will look at the mathematical, psychological and logical challenges of helping experts to quantify what they think. We show how the subjective Bayesian approach is useful for capturing expert uncertainty, ultimately providing a more complete picture of what they think... And what they don't!

The psychological experiences of adult heart transplant recipients : a systematic review and meta-summary of qualitative findings

Background Psychosocial factors and physical health are associated with increased psychological distress post-heart transplant. Integrating findings from qualitative studies could highlight mechanisms for how these factors contribute to psychological well-being, thus aiding the development of interventions. Objective To integrate qualitative findings regarding adult heart transplant recipients experiences, such as their emotions, perceptions and attitudes. Methods A systematic review and meta-summary were conducted. Data from seven studies were categorized into 16 abstracted findings. Results The most prominent finding across the studies related to recipients’ perceptions of the importance of social support. Other prominent findings related to factors that promoted psychological well-being, such as faith, optimism and sense of control. Conclusions Psychological well-being may be improved by enhancing perceived control over health and daily life, promoting an optimistic outlook by facilitating access to social support from other heart transplant recipients and ensuring post-transplant recipient-caregiver partnerships adequately support the transition back to independence.

The role of psychological and physiological factors in decision making under risk and in a dilemma

We study the difference in the result of two different risk elicitation methods by linking estimates of risk attitudes to gender, age, personality traits, a decision in a dilemma situation, and physiological states measured by heart rate variability (HRV). Our results indicate that differences between the methods can partly be explained by gender, but not by personality traits. Furthermore, HRV is linked to risktaking in the experiment for at least one of the methods, indicating that more stressed individuals display more risk aversion. Finally, we and that risk attitudes are not predictive of the ability to decide in a dilemma, but personality traits are. Surprisingly, there is also no apparent relationship between the physiological state during the dilemma situation and the ability to make a decision.

A systematic review of baseline psychosocial characterisation in dietary randomised controlled trials for weight loss

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE: To investigate the extent of baseline psychosocial characterisation of subjects in published dietary randomised controlled trials (RCTs) for weight loss. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Systematic review of adequately sized (nX10) RCTs comprising X1 diet-alone arm for weight loss were included for this systematic review. More specifically, trials included overweight (body mass index 425 kg/m2) adults, were of duration X8 weeks and had body weight as the primary outcome. Exclusion criteria included specific psychological intervention (for example, Cognitive Behaviour Therapy (CBT)), use of web-based tools, use of supplements, liquid diets, replacement meals and very-low calorie diets. Physical activity intervention was restricted to general exercise only (not supervised or prescribed, for example, VO2 maximum level). RESULTS: Of 176 weight-loss RCTs published during 2008–2010, 15 met selection criteria and were assessed for reported psychological characterisation of subjects. All studies reported standard characterisation of clinical and biochemical characteristics of subjects. Eleven studies reported no psychological attributes of subjects (three of these did exclude those taking psychoactive medication). Three studies collected data on particular aspects of psychology related to specific research objectives (figure scale rating, satiety and quality-of-life). Only one study provided a comprehensive background on psychological attributes of subjects. CONCLUSION: Better characterisation in behaviour-change interventions will reduce potential confounding and enhance generalisability of such studies.

Depressive symptoms during pregnancy: Exploring the role of sitting

Statement of problem: Studies exploring relationships between sitting and mental health have been conducted in child and adult, but not pregnant populations. Depression during pregnancy is associated with deleterious outcomes for mothers and children, and shortcomings have been identified in current management strategies. Modifiable lifestyle behaviors may provide more acceptable alternatives to current management strategies if shown to be important. The aim of this study was to explore the relationship between sitting behavior and depressive symptoms in a population of pregnant Australian women. Methods: This pilot cross-sectional study included 81 pregnant women in Brisbane, Australia. Depressive symptoms were measured using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS). Sitting behavior was measured using the Australian Women's Activity Survey (AWAS). Several potential covariates were also assessed. Linear regression analyses were used to explore the relationship between sitting and depressive symptoms, whilst controlling for known covariates. Results: The model investigating “total sitting time” showed no association with depressive symptoms (F = .77, p = 0.38). The model investigating “planned leisure sitting time” was statistically significant (F = 4.42, p = 0.04): significant contributors to the model variance were HADS anxiety score (p = 0.003) and number of existing children (p = 0.02). “Planned leisure sitting time” showed a statistical trend toward significance (p = 0.06). Conclusions: This study suggests further investigation of the relationship between sitting, particularly planned leisure sitting, and depression during pregnancy is warranted. Future research should include a larger sample and an objective measure of leisure time sitting.

Princess Alexandra Hospital model of comprehensive geriatric assessment of cancer patients : methodological and logistical aspects

There is increasing momentum in cancer care to implement a two stage assessment process that accurately determines the ability of older patients to cope with, and benefit from, chemotherapy. The two-step approach aims to ensure that patients clearly fit for chemotherapy can be accurately identified and referred for treatment without undergoing a time- and resource-intensive comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA). Ideally, this process removes the uncertainty of how to classify and then appropriately treat the older cancer patient. After trialling a two-stage screen and CGA process in the Division of Cancer Services at Princess Alexandra Hospital (PAH) in 2011-2012, we implemented a model of oncogeriatric care based on our findings. In this paper, we explore the methodological and practical aspects of implementing the PAH model and outline further work needed to refine the process in our treatment context.

An observational study of nutrition and physical activity behaviours, knowledge, and advice in pregnancy

Maternal obesity, excess weight gain and lifestyle behaviours during pregnancy have been associated with future overweight and other adverse health outcomes for mothers and babies. This study compared the nutrition and physical activity behaviours of Australian healthy (BMI ≤ 25 k/m2) and overweight (BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2) pregnant women and described their knowledge and receipt of health professional advice early in pregnancy. Methods Pregnant women (n=58) aged 29±5 (mean±s.d.) years were recruited at 16±2 weeks gestation from an Australian metropolitan hospital. Height and weight were measured using standard procedures and women completed a self administered semi-quantitative survey. Results Healthy and overweight women had very similar levels of knowledge, behaviour and levels of advice provided except where specifically mentioned. Only 8% and 36% of participants knew the correct recommended daily number of fruit and vegetable serves respectively. Four percent of participants ate the recommended 5 serves/day of vegetables. Overweight women were less likely than healthy weight women to achieve the recommended fruit intake (4% vs. 8%, p=0.05), and more likely to consume soft drinks or cordial (55% vs 43%, p=0.005) and take away foods (37% vs. 25%, p=0.002) once a week or more. Less than half of all women achieved sufficient physical activity. Despite 80% of women saying they would have liked education about nutrition, physical activity and weight gain, particularly at the beginning of pregnancy, less than 50% were given appropriate advice regarding healthy eating and physical activity. Conclusion Healthy pregnancy behaviour recommendations were not being met, with overweight women less likely to meet some of the recommendations. Knowledge of dietary recommendations was poor and health care professional advice was limited. There are opportunities to improve the health care practices and education pregnant women received to improve knowledge and behaviours. Pregnant women appear to want this.

Factors influencing the impact of primary and secondary prevention strategies for cervical cancer among Queensland women

Since the introduction of the National Human Papillomavirus Vaccine Program (NHPVP) in 2007, few studies have assessed women's knowledge, beliefs and attitudes towards cervical screening and human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in Australia. It is imperative to ascertain this, as substantial changes are anticipated to the National Cervical Screening Program (NCSP) through a process called 'the Renewal', to ensure any changes that are introduced will be acceptable and well understood by women. The objectives of this study were to describe Queensland women's current knowledge of cervical cancer/screening and HPV, their beliefs and attitudes towards Pap smears and the HPV vaccine and seek their advice on effective methods for communicating changes to the NCSP in their communities. This research was a descriptive-exploratory study that incorporated a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods within the context of the Health Belief Model (HBM). A computer-assisted telephone interview (CATI) survey of 1002 Queensland women was conducted in Phase 1 of the study. During Phase 2 of the study, 23 focus groups were conducted throughout Queensland to gather in-depth information about women's knowledge, awareness and acceptance about cervical cancer prevention strategies. This study found high levels of awareness of HPV (over 60%) and the HPV vaccine (over 86%) amongst Queensland women. However, it also identified considerable uncertainty amongst participants about perceived susceptibility to cervical cancer, especially, the link between cervical cancer, HPV and sexual activity. Women also had limited understanding of the benefit of the Pap smear as a preventative strategy, with many women thinking the main purpose of the Pap smear was for the early detection of cancer. Despite high awareness of HPV, women participating in this study also had significant knowledge deficits about their susceptibility to HPV and the severity of HPV infection. Queensland women had high levels of awareness of the HPV vaccine, which was most commonly via the media. High acceptance of the HPV vaccine was found amongst participants although awareness of the full benefits of vaccination was not evident with little acknowledgement that the quadrivalent vaccine used in the NHPVP would also prevent genital warts. Extensive barriers to having Pap smears, including physical and psychological discomfort, were identified and the most common barriers to vaccination were concerns about side effects and a lack of information upon which to make a decision about consent. Women described enablers for screening participation, such as reminder systems and practitioner characteristics, and expressed positive views towards self collected testing as an enabler, particularly for women who did not attend screening. As this study was conducted with Queensland women it may therefore not be representative of women from other parts of Australia and as participants were more likely to report they were regular screeners than Queensland women overall, these results may not be representative of women least likely to participate in cervical screening. The use of self-reported cervical screening history may also have led to over-reporting of screening status and previous abnormalities by participants. This study reveals significant gaps in Queensland women's knowledge that require effective communication strategies to address. Recommendations from this study highlight the need for increased community education to raise awareness about primary and secondary cervical cancer prevention strategies, training of cervical screening providers in sensitive examination techniques, a reduction in costs associated with screening, the exploration of alternative service models and communication plans that incorporate methods women trust and recommend for disseminating information about changes to the NCSP. This study is the first large study to explore women's perceptions of the Pap smear and barriers to screening, their knowledge about HPV and their attitudes towards the HPV vaccine in Queensland, since the introduction of the NHPVP. It highlights considerable uncertainty about many aspects of cervical cancer and primary and secondary prevention strategies available in Australia and identified many barriers to cervical screening and concerns about HPV vaccination. These knowledge gaps and barriers need to be taken into account and addressed within the context of anticipated changes to the NCSP to ensure benefits are maximised for women in future primary and secondary cervical cancer prevention strategies in the Australian context.

Morphology changes and mechanistic aspects of the electrochemically-induced reversible solid-solid transformation of microcrystalline TCNQ into Co TCNQ 2-based materials (TCNQ= 7, 7, 8, 8-Tetracyanoquinodimethane)

The chemically reversible solid−solid phase transformation of a TCNQ-modified glassy carbon, indium tin oxide, or metal electrode into Co\[TCNQ]2(H2O)2 material in the presence of Co2+(aq) containing electrolytes has been induced and monitored electrochemically. Voltammetric data reveal that the TCNQ/Co\[TCNQ]2(H2O)2 interconversion process is independent of electrode material and identity of cobalt electrolyte anion. However, a marked dependence on electrolyte concentration, scan rate, and method of electrode modification (drop casting or mechanical attachment) is found. Cyclic voltammetric and double potential step chronoamperometric measurements confirm that formation of Co\[TCNQ]2(H2O)2 occurs through a rate-determining nucleation and growth process that initially involves incorporation of Co2+(aq) ions into the reduced TCNQ crystal lattice at the TCNQ|electrode|electrolyte interface. Similarly, the reverse (oxidation) process, which involves transformation of solid Co\[TCNQ]2(H2O)2 back to parent TCNQ crystals, also is controlled by nucleation−growth kinetics. The overall chemically reversible process that represents this transformation is described by the reaction:  2TCNQ0(s) + 2e- + Co2+(aq) + 2H2O \[Co(TCNQ)2(H2O)2](s). Ex situ SEM images illustrated that this reversible TCNQ/Co\[TCNQ]2(H2O)2 conversion process is accompanied by drastic size and morphology changes in the parent solid TCNQ. In addition, different sizes of needle-shaped nanorod/nanowire crystals of Co\[TCNQ]2(H2O)2 are formed depending on the method of surface immobilization.

The effectiveness of non-pharmacological interventions in improving psychological outcomes for heart transplant recipients : a systematic review

Background Post-heart transplant psychological distress may both directly hinder physiological health as well as indirectly impact on clinical outcomes by increasing unhealthy behaviours, such as immunosuppression non-adherence. Reducing psychological distress for heart transplant recipients is therefore vitally important, in order to improve patients’ overall health and well-being but also clinical outcomes, such as morbidity and mortality. Evidence from other populations suggests that non-pharmacological interventions may be an effective strategy. Aim To appraise the efficacy of non-pharmacological interventions on psychological outcomes after heart transplant. Method A systematic review was conducted using the Joanna Briggs Institute methodology. Experimental and quasi-experimental studies that involved any non-pharmacological intervention for heart transplant recipients were included, provided that data on psychological outcomes were reported. Multiple electronic databases were searched for published and unpublished studies and reference lists of retrieved studies were scrutinized for further primary research. Data were extracted using a standardised data extraction tool. Included studies were assessed by two independent reviewers using standardised critical appraisal instruments. Results Three studies fulfilled the inclusion and exclusion criteria, which involved only 125 heart transplant recipients. Two studies reported on exercise programs. One study reported a web-based psychosocial intervention. While psychological outcomes significantly improved from baseline to follow-up for the recipients who received the interventions, between-group comparisons were not reported. The methodological quality of the studies was judged to be poor. Conclusions Further research is required, as we found there is insufficient evidence available to draw conclusions for or against the use of non-pharmacological interventions after heart transplant.

A longitudinal study of the impact of chronic psychological stress on health-related quality of life and clinical biomarkers : protocol for the Australian Healthy Aging of Women Study

BACKGROUND: Despite advancements in our understanding of the importance of stress reduction in achieving good health, we still only have limited insight into the impact of stress on cellular function. Recent studies have suggested that exposure to prolonged psychological stress may alter an individual's physiological responses, and contribute to morbidity and mortality. This paper presents an overview of the study protocol we are using to examine the impact of life stressors on lifestyle factors, health-related quality of life and novel and established biomarkers of stress in midlife and older Australian women.The primary aim of this study is to explore the links between chronic psychological stress on both subjective and objective health markers in midlife and older Australian women. The study examines the extent to which exposure frightening, upsetting or stressful events such as natural disasters, illness or death of a relative, miscarriage and relationship conflict is correlated with a variety of objective and subjective health markers.Methods/design: This study is embedded within the longitudinal Healthy Aging of Women's study which has collected data from midlife and older Australian women at 5 yearly intervals since 2001, and uses the Allostastic model of women's health by Groer and colleagues in 2010. The current study expands the focus of the HOW study and will assess the impact of life stressors on quality of life and clinical biomarkers in midlife and older Australian women to explain the impact of chronic psychological stress in women. DISCUSSION: The proposed study hypothesizes that women are at increased risk of exposure to multiple or repeated stressors, some being unique to women, and the frequency and chronicity of stressors increases women's risk of adverse health outcomes. This study aims to further our understanding of the relationships between stressful life experiences, perceived quality of life, stress biomarkers, chronic illness, and health status in women.

Watermemories : a swimming club for people with dementia

The purpose of this article is to describe the conceptual model and implementation strategies of an evidence-based, aquatic exercise program specifically targeting individuals with dementia—The Watermemories Swimming Club (WSC). Physical exercise not only improves the functional capacity of people with dementia but also has significant effects on other aspects of quality of life such as sleep, appetite, behavioral and psychological symptoms, depression, and falls. Additionally, exercise can improve a person’s overall sense of well-being and positively enhance their sociability. The WSC was designed to increase physical exercise while being easy to implement, safe, and pleasurable. Many challenges were faced along the way, and we discuss how these were overcome. Implications for nurses are also provided.

Psychological determinants and outcomes of sedentary and physical activity behaviours

There is now a large body of literature that supports the protective role of physical activity for both physical and psychological health. Sedentary behaviour was previously considered the functional opposite of physical activity, but 10 years ago, Owen and colleagues highlighted the need to study physical activity and sedentary behaviour as two distinct modes of behaviour that can independently influence health [1]. Since then, there has been growing evidence that participation in sedentary behaviours such as television viewing, computer use and sitting at work are associated with higher risk of chronic disease outcomes (type 2 diabetes, obesity), and leisure-time sitting has recently been associated with increased mortality [2]. Growing research points to the possible synergistic effects of physical activity and sedentary behaviours in contributing to health outcomes