The annual course of precipitation over much of the United States: observed versus GCM simulation

General Circulation Models (GCMs) may be useful in estimating the ecological impacts of global climatic change. We analyzed seasonal weather patterns over the conterminous United States and determined that regional patterns of rainfall seasonality appear to control the distributions of the Nation's major biomes. These regional patterns were compared to the output from three GCMs for validation. The models appear to simulate the appropriate seasonal climates in the northern tier of states. However, the spatial extent of these regions is distorted. None of the models accurately portrayed rainfall seasonalities in the southern tier of states, where biomes are primarily influenced by the Bermuda High.

Uncovering North American temperature and precipitation patterns associated with the Southern Oscillation

The extreme phases of the Southern Oscillation (SO) have been linked to fairly persistent classes of circulation anomalies over the North Pacific and parts of North America. It has been more difficult to uncover correspondingly consistent patterns of surface temperature and precipitation over much of the continent. The few regions that appear to have consistent SO-related patterns of temperature and precipitation anomalies are identified and discussed. Also discussed are regions that appear to have strong SO-related surface anomalies whose sign varies from episode to episode.

Strong, low frequency (decadal) environmental fluctuations during the 20th century in the North Pacific Ocean, on the Washington coast, and in Puget Sound

At decadal period (10-20 years), dynamic linkage was evident between atmospheric low pressure systems over the North Pacific Ocean and circulation in a Pacific Northwest fjord (Puget Sound). As the Aleutian low pressure center shifts, storms arriving from the North Pacific Ocean deposit varying amounts of precipitation in the mountains draining into the estuarine system; in turn, the fluctuating addition of fresh water changes the density distribution near the fjord basin entrance sill, thereby constraining the fjord's vertical velocity structure. This linkage was examined using time series of 21 environmental parameters from 1899 to 1987. Covariation in the time series was evident because of the strong decadal cycles compared with long-term averages, interannual variability, and seasonal cycles.

"Cool" vs. "warm" winter precipitation and its effect on streamflow in California

Precipitation is a difficult variable to understand and predict. In this study, monthly precipitation in California is divided into two classes according to the monthly temperature to better diagnose the atmospheric circulation that causes precipitation, and to illustrate how temperature compounds the precipitation to runoff process.

The Younger Dryas and millenial-scale oceanographic variability in the Sulu Sea, tropical western Pacific

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): A high resolution, AMS carbon-14-dated sediment record from the Sulu Sea clearly indicates the Younger Dryas climatic event affected the western equatorial Pacific. Presence of the Younger Dryas in the tropical western Pacific indicates this climatic event is not restricted to the North Atlantic nor to high latitudes, but is global in extent.

Radiocarbon record of solar variability and Holocene climatic change in coastal southern California

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Pollen analysis and 5 radiocarbon dates for a 687-cm core provide a detailed chronology of environmental change for San Joaquin Marsh at the head of Newport Bay, Orange County, California. Sediment deposition kept pace with sea level rise during the mid-Holocene, but after 4500 years BP, sea water regularly reached the coring site, and salt marsh was the local vegetation. Brief periods of dominance by fresh-water vegetation 3800, 2800, 2300 and after 560 years BP correlate global cooling events and (except the 3800-year BP event) with carbon-14 production anomalies. The coincidence of climate change and carbon-14 anomalies support a causal connection with solar variability, but regardless of the causal mechanism(s) the delta-carbon-14 curves provide a chronology for global, high-frequency climatic change comparable to that of Milankovitch cyclicity for longer time scales.

Tree-ring records as indicators of air-sea interaction in the northeast Pacific sector

Climate conditions in land areas of the Pacific Northwest are strongly influenced by atmosphere/ocean variability, including fluctuations in the Aleutian Low, Pacific-North American (PNA) atmospheric circulation modes, and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It thus seems likely that climatically sensitive tree-ring data from these coastal land areas would likewise reflect such climatic parameters. In this paper, tree-ring width and maximum lakewood density chronologies from northwestern Washington State and near Vancouver Island, British Columbia, are compared to surface air temperature and precipitation from nearby coastal and near-coastal land stations and to monthly sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level pressure (SLP) data from the northeast Pacific sector. Results show much promise for eventual reconstruction of these parameters, potentially extending available instrumental records for the northeastern Pacific by several hundred years or more.

Semiempirical down-scaling of GCM output to the local scale for temperature, precipitation, and runoff

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): An empirically derived multiple linear regression model is used to relate a local-scale dependent variable (either temperature, precipitation, or surface runoff) measured at individual gauging stations to six large-scale independent variables (temperature, precipitation, surface runoff, height to the 500-mbar pressure surface, and the zonal and meridional gradient across this surface). ...The area investigated is the western United States. ... The calibration data set is from 1948 through 1988 and includes data from 268 joint temperature and precipitation stations, 152 streamflow stations (which are converted to runoff data), and 24 gridded 500-mbar pressure height nodes.

Regional context of the climate of H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest, Oregon

H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest is a 6400 ha forest of Douglas fir, western hemlock, and Pacific silver fir located in, and typical of, the central portion of the western slope of the Cascade mountain range of Oregon. The forest is one of 19 sites in the Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) program sponsored by the National Science Foundation. ... Because of the scientific significance of Andrews Forest, it is important to investigate the temporal variability of annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation values at the site and identify past times of anomalous climatic conditions. It is also important to establish quantitatively the relationships between the climate of Andrews Forest and that of its surrounding area and, hence, place the climate of Andrews Forest into its regional context.

Inter-decadal climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere: evidence from Tasmanian tree rings over the past three millennia

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The characterization of inter-decadal climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere is severely constrained by the shortness of the instrumental climate records. To help relieve this constraint, we have developed and analyzed a reconstruction of warm-season (November-April) temperatures from Tasmanian tree rings that now extends back to 800 BC. A detailed analysis of this reconstruction in the time and frequency domains indicates that much of the inter-decadal variability is principally confined to four frequency bands with mean periods of 31, 57, 77, and 200 years. ... In so doing, we show how a future greenhouse warming signal over Tasmania could be masked by these natural oscillations unless they are taken into account.