Ecological forecasting: new tools for coastal and marine ecosystem management

Policy makers, natural resource managers, regulators, and the public often call on scientists to estimate the potential ecological changes caused by both natural and human-induced stresses, and to determine how those changes will impact people and the environment. To develop accurate forecasts of ecological changes we need to: 1) increase understanding of ecosystem composition, structure, and functioning, 2) expand ecosystem monitoring and apply advanced scientific information to make these complex data widely available, and 3) develop and improve forecast and interpretative tools that use a scientific basis to assess the results of management and science policy actions. (PDF contains 120 pages)

An assessment of two decades of contaminant monitoring in the Nation’s Coastal Zone.

Executive Summary: Information found in this report covers the years 1986 through 2005. Mussel Watch began monitoring a suite of trace metals and organic contaminants such as DDT, PCBs and PAHs. Through time additional chemicals were added, and today approximately 140 analytes are monitored. The Mussel Watch Program is the longest running estuarine and coastal pollutant monitoring effort conducted in the United States that is national in scope each year. Hundreds of scientific journal articles and technical reports based on Mussel Watch data have been written; however, this report is the first that presents local, regional and national findings across all years in a Quick Reference format, suitable for use by policy makers, scientists, resource managers and the general public. Pollution often starts at the local scale where high concentrations point to a specific source of contamination, yet some contaminants such as PCBs are atmospherically transported across regional and national scales, resulting in contamination far from their origin. Findings presented here showed few national trends for trace metals and decreasing trends for most organic contaminants; however, a wide variety of trends, both increasing and decreasing, emerge at regional and local levels. For most organic contaminants, trends have resulted from state and federal regulation. The highest concentrations for both metal and organic contaminants are found near urban and industrial areas. In addition to monitoring throughout the nation’s coastal shores and Great Lakes, Mussel Watch samples are stored in a specimen bank so that trends can be determined retrospectively for new and emerging contaminants of concern. For example, there is heightened awareness of a group of flame retardants that are finding their way into the marine environment. These compounds, known as polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), are now being studied using historic samples from the specimen bank and current samples to determine their spatial distribution. We will continue to use this kind of investigation to assess new contaminant threats. We hope you find this document to be valuable, and that you continue to look towards the Mussel Watch Program for information on the condition of your coastal waters. (PDF contains 118 pages)

MIRACLE Project Plan

Social scientists have used agent-based models (ABMs) to explore the interaction and feedbacks among social agents and their environments. The bottom-up structure of ABMs enables simulation and investigation of complex systems and their emergent behaviour with a high level of detail; however the stochastic nature and potential combinations of parameters of such models create large non-linear multidimensional “big data,” which are difficult to analyze using traditional statistical methods. Our proposed project seeks to address this challenge by developing algorithms and web-based analysis and visualization tools that provide automated means of discovering complex relationships among variables. The tools will enable modellers to easily manage, analyze, visualize, and compare their output data, and will provide stakeholders, policy makers and the general public with intuitive web interfaces to explore, interact with and provide feedback on otherwise difficult-to-understand models.

Limited access alternatives for the Pacific groundfish fishery

Despite its wide acceptance in other fisheries, limited access remains a controversial topic among Pacific coast groundfish fishermen and fishery managers. It is controversial because it immediately opens a wide array of public policy issues. How should the public conserve fish stocks, and who should benefit from harvesting those fish? What are the costs and benefits to the public, the taxpayer, the fishing industry, and the coastal communities supporting the groundfish industry? Should the government push the industry to be economically efficient in harvesting; or should it discourage technical efficiency to conserve fish stocks? Should management preserve the economic status quo by protecting existing harvest shares? These are the broad issues occupying the discussions of policy makers and academic writers concerned with resource management. The goal of this introductory section is to define limited access, to dispel some basic misunderstandings about limited access, to clarify the optional forms oflimited access, and to review the various resource management objectives addressed. This should set the stage for the following more lengthy discussions. By reducing the scope of needless misunderstandings, it should also help to make future discussions of limited access more productive. (PDF file contains 52 pages.)

The role of communication in the management of Nigeria's capture fisheries resources

Development and management indices identified in the capture fishery resources focus on stock management, freshwater and marine pollution by organic and inorganic compounds including silting, plankton sustainability, fishing methods, biological productivity, energy cycles, ornamental fish and sanctuaries. The issue of post-harvest handling and processing is also discussed. The paper also identifies fisheries sectorial problems at the artisanal and industrial level both at sea and at shore, in the processing plant, infrastructure, manpower and marketing issues. The paper suggests that advocacy should be incorporated into extension and communication programme ensuring some changes in attitudes of all stakeholders in the fisheries game. The paper concludes stating that policy makers should stop paying lip-service to the fisheries sub-sector and should create a separate Ministry for Fisheries

Coastal brownfields and adaptation to climate change: Discussions on potential hazards from contaminated groundwater displacement due to saltwater incursion

Toxic-waste associated with coastal brownfield sites can pose serious risks to human and environmental health. In light of anticipated sea-level rise (SLR) due to global climate change, coastal brownfields require heightened attention. The primary intent of this study is to pose questions and encourage discussion of this problem among policy makers. Impacts from SLR on coastal zones are examined within a brownfield policy framework and, current coastal brownfield policy discussions with respect to SLR are also examined. (PDF contains 4 pages)

Reforming state-level coastal management and development policies: strategic retreat as an innovative, proactive and equitable coastal environmental management strategy

Atlantic and Gulf Coast shorelines include some of the most unique and biologically rich ecosystems in the United States that provide immeasurable aesthetic, habitat and economic benefits. Natural coastal ecosystems, however, are under increasing threat from rampant and irresponsible growth and development. Once a boon to local economies, complex natural forces – enhanced by global climate change and sea level rise - are now considered hazards and eroding the very foundation upon which coastal development is based. For nearly a century, beach restoration and erosion control structures have been used to artificially stabilize shorelines in an effort to protect structures and infrastructure. Beach restoration, the import and emplacement of sand on an eroding beach, is expensive, unpredictable, inefficient and may result in long-term environmental impacts. The detrimental environmental impacts of erosion control structures such as sea walls, groins, bulkheads and revetments include sediment deficits, accelerated erosion and beach loss. These and other traditional responses to coastal erosion and storm impacts- along with archaic federal and state policies, subsidies and development incentives - are costly, encourage risky development, artificially increase property values of high-risk or environmentally sensitive properties, reduce the post-storm resilience of shorelines, damage coastal ecosystems and are becoming increasingly unsustainable. Although communities, coastal managers and property owners face increasingly complex and difficult challenges, there is an emerging public, social and political awareness that, without meaningful policy reforms, coastal ecosystems and economies are in jeopardy. Strategic retreat is a sustainable, interdisciplinary management strategy that supports the proactive, planned removal of vulnerable coastal development; reduces risk; increases shoreline resiliency and ensures long term protection of coastal systems. Public policies and management strategies that can overcome common economic misperceptions and promote the removal of vulnerable development will provide state and local policy makers and coastal managers with an effective management tool that concomitantly addresses the economic, environmental, legal and political issues along developed shorelines. (PDF contains 4 pages)

Economics of co-managing water quality and invasive species for California and Baja California coastal boats

Regulatory action to protect California’s coastal water quality from degradation by copper from recreational boats’ antifouling paints interacts with efforts to prevent transport of invasive, hull-fouling species. A copper regulatory program is in place for a major yacht basin in northern San Diego Bay and in process for other major, California boat basins. “Companion” fouling control strategies are used with copper-based antifouling paints, as some invasive species have developed resistance to the copper biocide. Such strategies are critical for boats with less toxic or nontoxic hull coatings. Boat traffic along over 3,000 miles of coastline in California and Baja California increases invasive species transport risks. For example, 80% of boats in Baja California marinas are from the United States, especially California. Policy makers, boating businesses and boat owners need information on costs and supply-side capacity for effective fouling control measures to co-manage water quality and invasive species concerns. (PDF contains 3 pages)

Oceans and human health: Sentinel habitats and sentinel species

The health of the oceans and people are inextricably linked. For many years we focused research and policy on anthropogenic impacts to oceans and coasts. Recently we have started to think about how the health of the oceans affects us. In response to the Oceans and Human Health Act of 2004, a NOAA initiative was created to explore the “One Health” of the oceans and coasts. The Center of Excellence in Oceans and Human Health at Hollings Marine Laboratory (HML) is one of three Centers dedicated to understanding the connections and forecasting changes in ocean and coastal health and human health. The Center at HML is developing new tools and approaches, including sentinel habitats and sentinel species, to evaluate linkages between ecological process and human health and wellbeing. The results provide environmental and public health managers, policy-makers and communities forecasts and assessments to improve ecosystem-based management that protects health and mitigates risks for the oceans, coasts and people.(PDF contains 4 pages)

Reforming state-level coastal management and development policies: strategic retreat as an innovative, proactive and equitable coastal environmental management strategy

Atlantic and Gulf Coast shorelines include some of the most unique and biologically rich ecosystems in the United States that provide immeasurable aesthetic, habitat and economic benefits. Natural coastal ecosystems, however, are under increasing threat from rampant and irresponsible growth and development. Once a boon to local economies, complex natural forces – enhanced by global climate change and sea level rise - are now considered hazards and eroding the very foundation upon which coastal development is based. For nearly a century, beach restoration and erosion control structures have been used to artificially stabilize shorelines in an effort to protect structures and infrastructure. Beach restoration, the import and emplacement of sand on an eroding beach, is expensive, unpredictable, inefficient and may result in long-term environmental impacts. The detrimental environmental impacts of erosion control structures such as sea walls, groins, bulkheads and revetments include sediment deficits, accelerated erosion and beach loss. These and other traditional responses to coastal erosion and storm impacts- along with archaic federal and state policies, subsidies and development incentives - are costly, encourage risky development, artificially increase property values of high-risk or environmentally sensitive properties, reduce the post-storm resilience of shorelines, damage coastal ecosystems and are becoming increasingly unsustainable. Although communities, coastal managers and property owners face increasingly complex and difficult challenges, there is an emerging public, social and political awareness that, without meaningful policy reforms, coastal ecosystems and economies are in jeopardy. Strategic retreat is a sustainable, interdisciplinary management strategy that supports the proactive, planned removal of vulnerable coastal development; reduces risk; increases shoreline resiliency and ensures long term protection of coastal systems. Public policies and management strategies that can overcome common economic misperceptions and promote the removal of vulnerable development will provide state and local policy makers and coastal managers with an effective management tool that concomitantly addresses the economic, environmental, legal and political issues along developed shorelines. (PDF contains 4 pages)

Poverty alleviation and rural development in Nigeria: a gender perspective

The paper examines the concept of the feminization of poverty and reviews the limited evidence on the extent of poverty among women. It then examines the arguments that poor women can be highly effective change agents for the eradication of poverty. However, all the women may be considered as instruments for eliminating poverty, lack of understanding an appreciation of the impact of their sex roles and of gender roles and stereotypes continue to prevent the realization of this potential. Therefore, the paper moves on to summarize the differences between sex and gender and examines how both women's sexes roles and the imp gender roles and stereotypes lead to the feminization of poverty and exclude women from the participation in development and programmes to eliminate poverty. The paper reviews the major approaches: women in development or WID, gender and development or GAD and extension of GAD known as mainstreaming. Finally, it considers the issue of poverty, women and gender in Nigeria. It also advances a number of recommendations on women and gender poverty and rural development for the consideration of policy-makers in Nigeria

International sources of fisheries information to enhance fish production, poverty alleviation and food security in Nigeria and developing Nigerian Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences Database

The paper viewed the decline in information provision in Nigeria to poor library development, which could be attributed to poor funding. The consequence is that current journal and books are not available in nigerian fisheries libraries. Information which can be regarded as the first factor of production on which other factors like land, labour and capital depend, can only be provided at the right time when libraries are better founded. For now if there must be increase in fish production, poverty alleviation and food security in Nigeria, our fisheries scientists and policy makers will have to rely on international sources of information using the advantage of internet connectivity. Some of such sources discussed in this paper are ASFA, AGORA, FAO DOAJ, FISHBASE, IAMSLIC, INASP, INASP-PERI, INASP-AJOL, ODINAFRICA, SIFAR, WAS, and ABASFR. However, reliance on international sources must not be at the total neglect of harnessing nigerian fisheries information. For the Nigerian Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences Database being developed by NIFFR to attain an international status like those enumerated above, scientists and publishers are requested to take the pain of depositing copies of their publications with NIFFR for inclusion in the Database

Statistical and econometric analysis of the treatment of HIV/AIDS

The epidemic of HIV/AIDS in the United States is constantly changing and evolving, starting from patient zero to now an estimated 650,000 to 900,000 Americans infected. The nature and course of HIV changed dramatically with the introduction of antiretrovirals. This discourse examines many different facets of HIV from the beginning where there wasn't any treatment for HIV until the present era of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). By utilizing statistical analysis of clinical data, this paper examines where we were, where we are and projections as to where treatment of HIV/AIDS is headed.

Chapter Two describes the datasets that were used for the analyses. The primary database utilized was collected by myself from an outpatient HIV clinic. The data included dates from 1984 until the present. The second database was from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS) public dataset. The data from the MACS cover the time between 1984 and October 1992. Comparisons are made between both datasets.

Chapter Three discusses where we were. Before the first anti-HIV drugs (called antiretrovirals) were approved, there was no treatment to slow the progression of HIV. The first generation of antiretrovirals, reverse transcriptase inhibitors such as AZT (zidovudine), DDI (didanosine), DDC (zalcitabine), and D4T (stavudine) provided the first treatment for HIV. The first clinical trials showed that these antiretrovirals had a significant impact on increasing patient survival. The trials also showed that patients on these drugs had increased CD4+ T cell counts. Chapter Three examines the distributions of CD4 T cell counts. The results show that the estimated distributions of CD4 T cell counts are distinctly non-Gaussian. Thus distributional assumptions regarding CD4 T cell counts must be taken, into account when performing analyses with this marker. The results also show the estimated CD4 T cell distributions for each disease stage: asymptomatic, symptomatic and AIDS are non-Gaussian. Interestingly, the distribution of CD4 T cell counts for the asymptomatic period is significantly below that of the CD4 T cell distribution for the uninfected population suggesting that even in patients with no outward symptoms of HIV infection, there exists high levels of immunosuppression.

Chapter Four discusses where we are at present. HIV quickly grew resistant to reverse transcriptase inhibitors which were given sequentially as mono or dual therapy. As resistance grew, the positive effects of the reverse transcriptase inhibitors on CD4 T cell counts and survival dissipated. As the old era faded a new era characterized by a new class of drugs and new technology changed the way that we treat HIV-infected patients. Viral load assays were able to quantify the levels of HIV RNA in the blood. By quantifying the viral load, one now had a faster, more direct way to test antiretroviral regimen efficacy. Protease inhibitors, which attacked a different region of HIV than reverse transcriptase inhibitors, when used in combination with other antiretroviral agents were found to dramatically and significantly reduce the HIV RNA levels in the blood. Patients also experienced significant increases in CD4 T cell counts. For the first time in the epidemic, there was hope. It was hypothesized that with HAART, viral levels could be kept so low that the immune system as measured by CD4 T cell counts would be able to recover. If these viral levels could be kept low enough, it would be possible for the immune system to eradicate the virus. The hypothesis of immune reconstitution, that is bringing CD4 T cell counts up to levels seen in uninfected patients, is tested in Chapter Four. It was found that for these patients, there was not enough of a CD4 T cell increase to be consistent with the hypothesis of immune reconstitution.

In Chapter Five, the effectiveness of long-term HAART is analyzed. Survival analysis was conducted on 213 patients on long-term HAART. The primary endpoint was presence of an AIDS defining illness. A high level of clinical failure, or progression to an endpoint, was found.

Chapter Six yields insights into where we are going. New technology such as viral genotypic testing, that looks at the genetic structure of HIV and determines where mutations have occurred, has shown that HIV is capable of producing resistance mutations that confer multiple drug resistance. This section looks at resistance issues and speculates, ceterus parabis, where the state of HIV is going. This section first addresses viral genotype and the correlates of viral load and disease progression. A second analysis looks at patients who have failed their primary attempts at HAART and subsequent salvage therapy. It was found that salvage regimens, efforts to control viral replication through the administration of different combinations of antiretrovirals, were not effective in 90 percent of the population in controlling viral replication. Thus, primary attempts at therapy offer the best change of viral suppression and delay of disease progression. Documentation of transmission of drug-resistant virus suggests that the public health crisis of HIV is far from over. Drug resistant HIV can sustain the epidemic and hamper our efforts to treat HIV infection. The data presented suggest that the decrease in the morbidity and mortality due to HIV/AIDS is transient. Deaths due to HIV will increase and public health officials must prepare for this eventuality unless new treatments become available. These results also underscore the importance of the vaccine effort.

The final chapter looks at the economic issues related to HIV. The direct and indirect costs of treating HIV/AIDS are very high. For the first time in the epidemic, there exists treatment that can actually slow disease progression. The direct costs for HAART are estimated. It is estimated that the direct lifetime costs for treating each HIV infected patient with HAART is between $353,000 to $598,000 depending on how long HAART prolongs life. If one looks at the incremental cost per year of life saved it is only $101,000. This is comparable with the incremental costs per year of life saved from coronary artery bypass surgery.

Policy makers need to be aware that although HAART can delay disease progression, it is not a cure and HIV is not over. The results presented here suggest that the decreases in the morbidity and mortality due to HIV are transient. Policymakers need to be prepared for the eventual increase in AIDS incidence and mortality. Costs associated with HIV/AIDS are also projected to increase. The cost savings seen recently have been from the dramatic decreases in the incidence of AIDS defining opportunistic infections. As patients who have been on HAART the longest start to progress to AIDS, policymakers and insurance companies will find that the cost of treating HIV/AIDS will increase.

Carbon leakage and the future of Old Industrial Regions after Copenhagen

35 p.

Analysis and Use of Information and Communication Tools in Economics of Climate Change

16 p.