A correlation sensitivity analysis of non-life underwriting risk in solvency capital requirement estimation

This paper analyses the impact of using different correlation assumptions between lines of business when estimating the risk-based capital reserve, the Solvency Capital Requirement -SCR-, under Solvency II regulations. A case study is presented and the SCR is calculated according to the Standard Model approach. Alternatively, the requirement is then calculated using an Internal Model based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the net underwriting result at a one-year horizon, with copulas being used to model the dependence between lines of business. To address the impact of these model assumptions on the SCR we conduct a sensitivity analysis. We examine changes in the correlation matrix between lines of business and address the choice of copulas. Drawing on aggregate historical data from the Spanish non-life insurance market between 2000 and 2009, we conclude that modifications of the correlation and dependence assumptions have a significant impact on SCR estimation.

Role of human hydroxysteroid (17beta) dehydrogenase type 1 (HSD17B1) in steroid-dependent diseases in females –novel indications for HSD17B1 inhibitors. Phenotypic analysis of transgenic mice overexpressing human HSD17B1.

Hormone-dependent diseases, e.g. cancers, rank high in mortality in the modern world, and thus, there is an urgent need for new drugs to treat these diseases. Although the diseases are clearly hormone-dependent, changes in circulating hormone concentrations do not explain all the pathological processes observed in the diseased tissues. A more inclusive explanation is provided by intracrinology – a regulation of hormone concentrations at the target tissue level. This is mediated by the expression of a pattern of steroid-activating and -inactivating enzymes in steroid target tissues, thus enabling a concentration gradient between the blood circulation and the tissue. Hydroxysteroid (17beta) dehydrogenases (HSD17Bs) form a family of enzymes that catalyze the conversion between low active 17-ketosteroids and highly active 17beta-hydroxysteroids. HSD17B1 converts low active estrogen (E1) to highly active estradiol (E2) with high catalytic efficiency, and altered HSD17B1 expression has been associated with several hormone-dependent diseases, including breast cancer, endometriosis, endometrial hyperplasia and cancer, and ovarian epithelial cancer. Because of its putative role in E2 biosynthesis in ovaries and peripheral target tissues, HSD17B1 is considered to be a promising drug target for estrogen-dependent diseases. A few studies have indicated that the enzyme also has androgenic activity, but they have been ignored. In the present study, transgenic mice overexpressing human HSD17B1 (HSD17B1TG mice) were used to study the effects of the enzyme in vivo. Firstly, the substrate specificity of human HSD17B1 was determined in vivo. The results indicated that human HSD17B1 has significant androgenic activity in female mice in vivo, which resulted in increased fetal testosterone concentration and female disorder of sexual development appearing as masculinized phenotype (increased anogenital distance, lack of nipples, lack of vaginal opening, combination of vagina with urethra, enlarged Wolffian duct remnants in the mesovarium and enlarged female prostate). Fetal androgen exposure has been linked to polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) and metabolic syndrome during adulthood in experimental animals and humans, but the genes involved in PCOS are largely unknown. A putative mechanism to accumulate androgens during fetal life by HSD17B1 overexpression was shown in the present study. Furthermore, as a result of prenatal androgen exposure locally in the ovaries, HSD17B1TG females developed ovarian benign serous cystadenomas in adulthood. These benign lesions are precursors of low-grade ovarian serous tumors. Ovarian cancer ranks fifth in mortality of all female cancers in Finland, and most of the ovarian cancers arise from the surface epithelium. The formation of the lesions was prevented by prenatal antiandrogen treatment and by transplanting wild type (WT) ovaries prepubertally into HSD17B1TG females. The results obtained in our non-clinical TG mouse model, together with a literature analysis, suggest that HSD17B1 has a role in ovarian epithelial carcinogenesis, and especially in the development of serous tumors. The role of androgens in ovarian carcinogenesis is considered controversial, but the present study provides further evidence for the androgen hypothesis. Moreover, it directly links HSD17B1-induced prenatal androgen exposure to ovarian epithelial carcinogenesis in mice. As expected, significant estrogenic activity was also detected for human HSD17B1. HSD17B1TG mice had enhanced peripheral conversion of E1 to E2 in a variety of target tissues, including the uterus. Furthermore, this activity was significantly decreased by treatments with specific HSD17B1 inhibitors. As a result, several estrogen-dependent disorders were found in HSD17B1TG females. Here we report that HSD17B1TG mice invariably developed endometrial hyperplasia and failed to ovulate in adulthood. As in humans, endometrial hyperplasia in HSD17B1TG females was reversible upon ovulation induction, triggering a rise in circulating progesterone levels, and in response to exogenous progestins. Remarkably, treatment with a HSD17B1 inhibitor failed to restore ovulation, yet completely reversed the hyperplastic morphology of epithelial cells in the glandular compartment. We also demonstrate that HSD17B1 is expressed in normal human endometrium, hyperplasia, and cancer. Collectively, our non-clinical data and literature analysis suggest that HSD17B1 inhibition could be one of several possible approaches to decrease endometrial estrogen production in endometrial hyperplasia and cancer. HSD17B1 expression has been found in bones of humans and rats. The non-clinical data in the present study suggest that human HSD17B1 is likely to have an important role in the regulation of bone formation, strength and length during reproductive years in female mice. Bone density in HSD17B1TG females was highly increased in femurs, but in lesser amounts also in tibias. Especially the tibia growth plate, but not other regions of bone, was susceptible to respond to HSD17B1 inhibition by increasing bone length, whereas the inhibitors did not affect bone density. Therefore, HSD17B1 inhibitors could be safer than aromatase inhibitors in regard to bone in the treatment of breast cancer and endometriosis. Furthermore, diseases related to improper growth, are a promising new indication for HSD17B1 inhibitors.

Correlation of anti-inflammatory activity with phenolic content in the leaves of syzygium cumini (l.) skeels (myrtaceae)

Phenolic contents of extracts of Syzygium cumini leaves, collected monthly over a one-year period, were quantitatively determined by the modified Folin-Ciocalteau method. Extracts and tannin-free fractions were assayed by their potential to inhibit mouse paw edema induced by C48/80. HPLC showed high molecular weight phenolic species and flavonoids in the active extracts and fractions. The highest total phenolic content corresponded to the most potent degree of inhibition and the flavonoids were supposed to be the main species responsible for the activity, given that the flavonoid-enriched ethyl-acetate fraction maintained its effect down to a dose of 0.01 mg/kg in a dose-response manner.

Characterization of nontypable haemophilus influenzae isolates recovered from adult patients with underlying chronic lung disease reveals genotypic and phenotypic traits associated with persistent infection

Nontypable Haemophilus influenzae (NTHi) has emerged as an important opportunistic pathogen causing infection in adults suffering obstructive lung diseases. Existing evidence associates chronic infection by NTHi to the progression of the chronic respiratory disease, but specific features of NTHi associated with persistence have not been comprehensively addressed. To provide clues about adaptive strategies adopted by NTHi during persistent infection, we compared sequential persistent isolates with newly acquired isolates in sputa from six patients with chronic obstructive lung disease. Pulse field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) identified three patients with consecutive persistent strains and three with new strains. Phenotypic characterisation included infection of respiratory epithelial cells, bacterial self-aggregation, biofilm formation and resistance to antimicrobial peptides (AMP). Persistent isolates differed from new strains in showing low epithelial adhesion and inability to form biofilms when grown under continuous-flow culture conditions in microfermenters. Self-aggregation clustered the strains by patient, not by persistence. Increasing resistance to AMPs was observed for each series of persistent isolates; this was not associated with lipooligosaccharide decoration with phosphorylcholine or with lipid A acylation. Variation was further analyzed for the series of three persistent isolates recovered from patient 1. These isolates displayed comparable growth rate, natural transformation frequency and murine pulmonary infection. Genome sequencing of these three isolates revealed sequential acquisition of single-nucleotide variants in the AMP permease sapC, the heme acquisition systems hgpB, hgpC, hup and hxuC, the 3-deoxy-D-manno-octulosonic acid kinase kdkA, the long-chain fatty acid transporter ompP1, and the phosphoribosylamine glycine ligase purD. Collectively, we frame a range of pathogenic traits and a repertoire of genetic variants in the context of persistent infection by NTHi.

THE APPLICATION OF AUTOMATED CORRELATION OPTIMIZED WARPING TO THE QUALITY EVALUATION OF Radix Puerariae thomsonii: CORRECTING RETENTION TIME SHIFT IN THE CHROMATOGRAPHIC FINGERPRINTS

The application of automated correlation optimized warping (ACOW) to the correction of retention time shift in the chromatographic fingerprints of Radix Puerariae thomsonii (RPT) was investigated. Twenty-seven samples were extracted from 9 batches of RPT products. The fingerprints of the 27 samples were established by the HPLC method. Because there is a retention time shift in the established fingerprints, the quality of these samples cannot be correctly evaluated by using similarity estimation and principal component analysis (PCA). Thus, the ACOW method was used to align these fingerprints. In the ACOW procedure, the warping parameters, which have a significant influence on the alignment result, were optimized by an automated algorithm. After correcting the retention time shift, the quality of these RPT samples was correctly evaluated by similarity estimation and PCA. It is demonstrated that ACOW is a practical method for aligning the chromatographic fingerprints of RPT. The combination of ACOW, similarity estimation, and PCA is shown to be a promising method for evaluating the quality of Traditional Chinese Medicine.

Genetic and phenotypic characterization of isolates of Pyricularia grisea from the rice cultivars epagri 108 and 109 in the State of Tocantins

An epidemic of rice (Oryza sativa) blast occurred on cultivars Epagri 108 and 109 in the municipalities of Lagoa da Confusão and Duerê in the State of Tocantins, during the rice-growing season 1998-99. DNA fingerprinting and virulence phenotype analysis were utilized to determine the diversity of Pyricularia grisea isolates collected from these cultivars in one epidemic year. Rep-PCR analysis of isolates was done by using two primer sequences from Pot2. Two distinct fingerprint groups or lineages were identified among 53 isolates collected from nine different commercial fields. The virulence pattern of isolates retrieved from these two cultivars was analyzed in artificial inoculation tests utilizing 32 genotypes in the greenhouse. A dendrogram constructed from virulence phenotype data showed a single group considering 77% similarity level. The predominant pathotype IB-45 was represented by 47 of the 53 isolates corresponding to 83%. Four other pathotypes (IB-1, IB-9, IB-13 and IB-41) were identified at random among the isolates from these cultivars. There was no relation between rep-PCR grouping and pathotypes. The results showed that the isolates of P. grisea recovered from cultivars Epagri108 and 109 in farmers' fields had narrow phenotypic and genetic diversity. The blast outbreak on these two cultivars one year after their introduction could be attributed to the new pathotype IB-45 or its increase, which was hitherto existing in low frequency.

Pathogenicity, molecular characterization, and cercosporin content of Brazilian isolates of Cercospora kikuchii

Cercospora kikuchii, involved with the defoliation of soybean (Glycine max) plants, is normally associated with Septoria glycines in late season. Seventy-two isolates from different regions in Brazil, obtained mainly from purple stained seeds, showed phenotypic variation. Cercosporin content and rate of colony growth was higly variable among isolates. A strong correlation between cercosporin content and virulence was identified. Genetic variation among and within populations was evaluated based on 86 RAPD loci. The RAPD analysis clustered all isolates into seven groups. No relationship was observed between RAPD groups and geographic origin or cercosporin content. The sequence of the internal spacer regions (ITS1-5.8S-ITS2) from 13 isolates chosen according to the previous RAPD and clustering analysis showed high similarity (97%-100%) to the GenBank sequences of C. kikuchii (AY266160, AY266161, AY152577 and AF291708). It is clear from this work that Brazilian isolates of C. kikuchii from different geographic regions, are variable in relation to virulence, RAPD profiles and cercosporin content. Cercosporin content could be a good parameter for choosing an adequate isolate for screening resistant or tolerant cultivars. Considering that this pathogen is easily seed-borne, findings are expected to show the same haplotypes in different regions. Migration could be favoured by infected seeds as demonstrated by RAPD analysis.

Estimation of phenotypic diversity in field populations of Magnaporthe grisea from two upland rice cultivars

The phenotypic diversity of Magnaporthe grisea was evaluated based on leaf samples with blast lesions collected from eight commercial fields of the upland rice cultivars 'BRS Primavera' and 'BRS Bonança', during the growing seasons of 2001/2002 and 2002/2003, in Goias State. The number of M. grisea isolates from each field utilized for virulence testing varied from 28 to 47. Three different indices were used based on reaction type in the eight standard international differentials and eight Brazilian differentials. The M. grisea subpopulations of ´Primavera' and 'Bonança', as measured by Simpson, Shannon and Gleason indices, showed similar phenotypic diversities. The Simpson index was more sensitive relation than those of Shannon and Gleason for pathotype number and standard deviation utilizing Brazilian differentials. However, the Gleason index was sensitive to standard deviation for international differentials. The sample size did not significantly influence the diversity index. The two sets of differential cultivars used in this study distinguished phenotypic diversity in different ways in all of the eight subpopulations analyzed. The phenotypic diversity determined based on eight differential Brazilian cultivars was lower in commercial rice fields of 'Primavera' than in the fields of 'Bonança,' independent of the diversity index utilized, year and location. Considering the Brazilian differentials, the four subpopulations of 'BRS Primavera' did not show evenness in distribution and only one pathotype dominated in the populations. The even distribution of pathotype was observed in three subpopulations of 'BRS Bonança'. The pathotype diversity of M. grisea was determined with more precision using Brazilian differentials and Simpson index.

Evaluation of phenotypic stability of resistance to Phytophthora spp. in cacao clones

Resistance of fourteen Theobroma cacao clones to Phytophthora spp. was evaluated using stem inoculations on grafted seedlings. Concepts of phenotypic stability were used to interpret the results and to express horizontality of the resistance. The linear regression coefficient 'b', the determination coefficient (R²) and average lesion size were used to determine the level of horizontal resistance, the phenotypic stability and the predictability of all clones. The results indicated that clones P 7 and MA 15 present highest levels of horizontal resistance and stability, but with moderate predictability. Clones CAS 1 and CEPEC 13 were classified as those with high horizontal resistance, stability and predictability, while clones PA 30, UF 650 and SIAL 88 and EET 59 showed intermediate resistance and stability and high predictability. Clones SPA 17, OC 61, PA 150, SIAL 505, ICS 1 and R 41 presented high susceptibility and intermediate or low stability and moderate or high predictability.

Evaluation of group electronegativities and hardness (softness) of group 14 elements and containing functional groups through density functional theory and correlation with NMR spectra data

Quantum Chemical calculations for group 14 elements of Periodic Table (C, Si, Ge, Sn, Pb) and their functional groups have been carried out using Density Functional Theory (DFT) based reactivity descriptors such as group electronegativities, hardness and softness. DFT calculations were performed for a large series of tetracoordinated Sn compounds of the CH3SnRR'X type, where X is a halogen and R and R' are alkyl, halogenated alkyl, alkoxy, or alkyl thio groups. The results were interpreted in terms of calculated electronegativity and hardness of the SnRR'X groups, applying a methodology previously developed by Geerlings and coworkers (J. Phys. Chem. 1993, 97, 1826). These calculations allowed to see the regularities concerning the influence of the nature of organic groups RR' and inorganic group X on electronegativities and hardness of the SnRR'X groups; in this case, it was found a very good correlation between the electronegativity of the fragment and experimental 119Sn chemical shifts, a property that sensitively reflects the change in the valence electronic structure of molecules. This work was complemented with the study of some compounds of the EX and ER types, where E= C, Si, Ge, Sn and R= CH3, H, which was performed to study the influence that the central atom has on the electronegativity and hardness of molecules, or whether these properties are mainly affected for the type of ligand bound to the central atom. All these calculations were performed using the B3PW91 functional together with the 6-311++G** basis set level for H, C, Si, Ge, F, Cl and Br atoms and the 3-21G for Sn and I atoms.