Coordinated Lot-sizing and Dynamic Prizing under a Supplier All-units Quantity Discount

We consider an economic order quantity model where the supplier offers an all-units quantity discount and a price sensitive customer demand. We compare a decentralized decision framework where selling price and replenishment policy are determined independently to simultaneous decision making. Constant and dynamic pricing are distinguished. We derive structural properties and develop algorithms that determine the optimal pricing and replenishment policy and show how quantity discounts not only influence the purchasing strategy but also the pricing policy. A sensitivity analysis indicates the impact of the fixed-holding cost ratio, the discount policy, and the customers' price sensitivity on the optimal decisions.

Evaluation of a new commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for the detection of porcine antibodies against Trichinella spp

Trichinellosis is a zoonotic disease that is caused by the nematode Trichinella spp. Both European Union regulations and guidelines from the World Organization for Animal Health foresee the possibility of conducting serological surveillance for Trichinella spp. A newly developed commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) was evaluated against 2 existing diagnostic techniques: an in-house ELISA and an in-house Western blot. A total of 875 Trichinella larva-negative samples of pigs and 93 Trichinella larva-positive samples of both naturally and experimentally infected pigs were included in the study. Bayesian modeling techniques were used to correct for the absence of a perfect reference test. The sensitivity and specificity of the commercial ELISA was 97.1-97.8% and 99.5-99.8%, respectively. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated high stability in the models. In a serological surveillance system, ELISA-positive samples should be tested by a confirmatory test. The Western blot is a suitable test for this purpose. With the use of the results of the models, the sensitivity and specificity of a test protocol in both ELISA and Western blot were 95.9% and 99.9%, respectively. The high sensitivity and specificity were achieved with a lower limit of detection than that of the routine artificial digestion test, suggesting that serological surveillance is a valuable alternative in surveillance for Trichinella spp. in pig production.

Validation of a Western Blot for the detection of anti-Trichinella spp. antibodies in domestic pigs

Trichinellosis is a zoonotic disease in humans caused by Trichinella spp. According to international regulations and guidelines, serological surveillance can be used to demonstrate the absence of Trichinella spp. in a defined domestic pig population. Most enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) tests presently available do not yield 100% specificity, and therefore, a complementary test is needed to confirm the diagnosis of any initial ELISA seropositivity. The goal of the present study was to evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of a Western Blot assay based on somatic Trichinella spiralis muscle stage (L1) antigen using Bayesian modeling techniques. A total of 295 meat juice and serum samples from pigs negative for Trichinella larvae by artificial digestion, including 74 potentially cross-reactive sera of pigs with other nematode infections, and 93 meat juice samples from pigs infected with Trichinella larvae were included in the study. The diagnostic sensitivity and specificity of the Western Blot were ranged from 95.8% to 96.0% and from 99.5% to 99.6%, respectively. A sensitivity analysis showed that the model outcomes were hardly influenced by changes in the prior distributions, providing a high confidence in the outcomes of the models. This validation study demonstrated that the Western Blot is a suitable method to confirm samples that reacted positively in an initial ELISA.

Survival of bonded lingual retainers with chemical or photo polymerization over a 2-year period: a single-center, randomized controlled clinical trial

INTRODUCTION The objective of this trial was to compare the survival rates of mandibular lingual retainers bonded with either chemically cured or light-cured adhesive after orthodontic treatment. METHODS Patients having undergone orthodontic treatment at a private orthodontic office were randomly allocated to fixed retainers placed with chemically cured composite or light-cured composite. Eligibility criteria included no active caries, restorations, or fractures on the mandibular anterior teeth, and adequate oral hygiene. The main outcome was any type of first-time lingual retainer breakage; pattern of failure (adapted adhesive remnant index scores) was a secondary outcome. Randomization was accomplished with random permuted blocks of 20 patients with allocation concealed in sequentially numbered, opaque, sealed envelopes. Blinding was applicable for outcome assessment only. Patients were reviewed at 1, 3, and 6 months and then every 6 months after placement of the retainer until completion of the study. Data were analyzed using survival analysis including Cox regression; sensitivity analysis was carried out after data imputation for subjects lost to follow-up. RESULTS Two hundred twenty patients (median age, 16 years; interquartile range, 2; range, 12-47 years) were randomized in a 1:1 ratio to either chemical or light curing. Baseline characteristics were similar between groups, the median follow-up period was 2.19 years (range, 0.003-3.64 years), and 16 patients were lost to follow-up. At a minimum follow-up of 2 years, 47 of 110 (42.7%) and 55 of 110 (50.0%) retainers had some type of failure with chemically cured and light-cured adhesive, respectively (log-rank test, P = 0.35). Data were analyzed on an intention-to-treat basis, and the hazard ratio (HR) was 1.15 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.88-1.70; P = 0.47). There was weak evidence that age is a significant predictor for lingual retainer failures (HR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.93-1.00; P = 0.08). Adhesive remnant index scoring was possible for only 66 of the 102 (64.7%) failures and did not differ between composites (Fisher exact test, P = 0.16). No serious harm was observed other than gingivitis associated with plaque accumulation. CONCLUSIONS The results of this study indicated no evidence that survival of mandibular lingual retainers differs between chemically and light-cured adhesives. The overall failure rate was 46.4%; however, this included any type of failure, which may have exaggerated the overall failure rate.

Integration of Pasturing Systems for Cattle Finishing Programs

A 3-year study, using 84 fall-born and 28 spring-born calves of similar genotypes, was conducted to integrate pasturing systems with drylot feeding systems. Calves were started on test following weaning in May and October. Seven treatments were imposed: 1) fall-born calves directly into feedlot; 2 and 3) fall-born calves put on pasture with or without ionophore and moved to the feedlot at the end of July; 4 and 5) fall-born calves put on pasture with or without ionophore and moved to the feedlot at the end of October; 6 and 7) spring-born calves put on pasture with or without ionophore and moved to the feedlot at the end of October. A bromegrass pasture consisting of 16 paddocks, each 1.7 acre in size, was available. Each treatment group had access to 1 paddock at a time and was rotated at approximately 3-day intervals. In the feedlot, steers were provided an 82% concentrate diet containing whole-shelled corn, ground alfalfa hay, and a protein, vitamin and mineral supplement containing ionophore and molasses. As pens of cattle reached about 1150 lb. average live weight, they were processed and carcass traits were evaluated. Pasture daily gains were highest for cattle on pasture for the longest duration (P < .03), and overall daily gains were highest for drylot cattle (P < .01) and decreased with increased time spent on pasture. Although differences among treatments existed in numerical scores for yield and quality grades (P < .05 and P < .03, respectively), all treatments provided average yield grade scores of 2 and quality grades of low Choice or higher. Use of four production costs and pricing scenarios revealed that fall-born calves placed on pasture for varying lengths of time were the most profitable (P < .04) among the treatments. Furthermore, employing a 5% price sensitivity analysis, indicated that fed-cattle selling price had great impact on profit potential and was followed in importance by feeder purchase price and corn grain price. Overall, these findings should provide significant production alternatives for some segments of the cattle feeding industry and also lend substantial credence to the concept of sustainable agriculture.

Efficiency of risk-based vs . random sampling for the monitoring of tetracycline residues in slaughtered calves in Switzerland

In all European Union countries, chemical residues are required to be routinely monitored in meat. Good farming and veterinary practice can prevent the contamination of meat with pharmaceutical substances, resulting in a low detection of drug residues through random sampling. An alternative approach is to target-monitor farms suspected of treating their animals with antimicrobials. The objective of this project was to assess, using a stochastic model, the efficiency of these two sampling strategies. The model integrated data on Swiss livestock as well as expert opinion and results from studies conducted in Switzerland. Risk-based sampling showed an increase in detection efficiency of up to 100% depending on the prevalence of contaminated herds. Sensitivity analysis of this model showed the importance of the accuracy of prior assumptions for conducting risk-based sampling. The resources gained by changing from random to risk-based sampling should be transferred to improving the quality of prior information.

A Physiological Controller for Turbodynamic Ventricular Assist Devices Based on a Measurement of the Left Ventricular Volume

The current article presents a novel physiological control algorithm for ventricular assist devices (VADs), which is inspired by the preload recruitable stroke work. This controller adapts the hydraulic power output of the VAD to the end-diastolic volume of the left ventricle. We tested this controller on a hybrid mock circulation where the left ventricular volume (LVV) is known, i.e., the problem of measuring the LVV is not addressed in the current article. Experiments were conducted to compare the response of the controller with the physiological and with the pathological circulation, with and without VAD support. A sensitivity analysis was performed to analyze the influence of the controller parameters and the influence of the quality of the LVV signal on the performance of the control algorithm. The results show that the controller induces a response similar to the physiological circulation and effectively prevents over- and underpumping, i.e., ventricular suction and backflow from the aorta to the left ventricle, respectively. The same results are obtained in the case of a disturbed LVV signal. The results presented in the current article motivate the development of a robust, long-term stable sensor to measure the LVV.

Strategies for partner notification for sexually transmitted infections, including HIV

BACKGROUND Partner notification (PN) is the process whereby sexual partners of an index patient are informed of their exposure to a sexually transmitted infection (STI) and the need to obtain treatment. For the person (index patient) with a curable STI, PN aims to eradicate infection and prevent re-infection. For sexual partners, PN aims to identify and treat undiagnosed STIs. At the level of sexual networks and populations, the aim of PN is to interrupt chains of STI transmission. For people with viral STI, PN aims to identify undiagnosed infections, which can facilitate access for their sexual partners to treatment and help prevent transmission. OBJECTIVES To assess the effects of different PN strategies in people with STI, including human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. SEARCH METHODS We searched electronic databases (the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE and EMBASE) without language restrictions. We scanned reference lists of potential studies and previous reviews and contacted experts in the field. We searched three trial registries. We conducted the most recent search on 31 August 2012. SELECTION CRITERIA Published or unpublished randomised controlled trials (RCTs) or quasi-RCTs comparing two or more PN strategies. Four main PN strategies were included: patient referral, expedited partner therapy, provider referral and contract referral. Patient referral means that the patient notifies their sexual partners, either with (enhanced patient referral) or without (simple patient referral) additional verbal or written support. In expedited partner therapy, the patient delivers medication or a prescription for medication to their partner(s) without the need for a medical examination of the partner. In provider referral, health service personnel notify the partners. In contract referral, the index patient is encouraged to notify partner, with the understanding that the partners will be contacted if they do not visit the health service by a certain date. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS We analysed data according to paired partner referral strategies. We organised the comparisons first according to four main PN strategies (1. enhanced patient referral, 2. expedited partner therapy, 3. contract referral, 4. provider referral). We compared each main strategy with simple patient referral and then with each other, if trials were available. For continuous outcome measures, we calculated the mean difference (MD) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). For dichotomous variables, we calculated the risk ratio (RR) with 95% CI. We performed meta-analyses where appropriate. We performed a sensitivity analysis for the primary outcome re-infection rate of the index patient by excluding studies with attrition of greater than 20%. Two review authors independently assessed the risk of bias and extracted data. We contacted study authors for additional information. MAIN RESULTS We included 26 trials (17,578 participants, 9015 women and 8563 men). Five trials were conducted in developing countries. Only two trials were conducted among HIV-positive patients. There was potential for selection bias, owing to the methods of allocation used and of performance bias, owing to the lack of blinding in most included studies. Seven trials had attrition of greater than 20%, increasing the risk of bias.The review found moderate-quality evidence that expedited partner therapy is better than simple patient referral for preventing re-infection of index patients when combining trials of STIs that caused urethritis or cervicitis (6 trials; RR 0.71, 95% CI 0.56 to 0.89, I(2) = 39%). When studies with attrition greater than 20% were excluded, the effect of expedited partner therapy was attenuated (2 trials; RR 0.8, 95% CI 0.62 to 1.04, I(2) = 0%). In trials restricted to index patients with chlamydia, the effect was attenuated (2 trials; RR 0.90, 95% CI 0.60 to 1.35, I(2) = 22%). Expedited partner therapy also increased the number of partners treated per index patient (three trials) when compared with simple patient referral in people with chlamydia or gonorrhoea (MD 0.43, 95% CI 0.28 to 0.58) or trichomonas (MD 0.51, 95% CI 0.35 to 0.67), and people with any STI syndrome (MD 0.5, 95% CI 0.34 to 0.67). Expedited partner therapy was not superior to enhanced patient referral in preventing re-infection (3 trials; RR 0.96, 95% CI 0.60 to 1.53, I(2) = 33%, low-quality evidence). Home sampling kits for partners (four trials) did not result in lower rates of re-infection in the index case (measured in one trial), or higher numbers of partners elicited (three trials), notified (two trials) or treated (one trial) when compared with simple patient referral. There was no consistent evidence for the relative effects of provider, contract or other patient referral methods. In one trial among men with non-gonococcal urethritis, more partners were treated with provider referral than with simple patient referral (MD 0.5, 95% CI 0.37 to 0.63). In one study among people with syphilis, contract referral elicited treatment of more partners than provider referral (MD 2.2, 95% CI 1.95 to 2.45), but the number of partners receiving treatment was the same in both groups. Where measured, there was no statistical evidence of differences in the incidence of adverse effects between PN strategies. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS The evidence assessed in this review does not identify a single optimal strategy for PN for any particular STI. When combining trials of STI causing urethritis or cervicitis, expedited partner therapy was more successful than simple patient referral for preventing re-infection of the index patient but was not superior to enhanced patient referral. Expedited partner therapy interventions should include all components that were part of the trial intervention package. There was insufficient evidence to determine the most effective components of an enhanced patient referral strategy. There are too few trials to allow consistent conclusions about the relative effects of provider, contract or other patient referral methods for different STIs. More high-quality RCTs of PN strategies for HIV and syphilis, using biological outcomes, are needed.

Hierarchical segmentation-assisted multimodal registration for MR brain images

Information theory-based metric such as mutual information (MI) is widely used as similarity measurement for multimodal registration. Nevertheless, this metric may lead to matching ambiguity for non-rigid registration. Moreover, maximization of MI alone does not necessarily produce an optimal solution. In this paper, we propose a segmentation-assisted similarity metric based on point-wise mutual information (PMI). This similarity metric, termed SPMI, enhances the registration accuracy by considering tissue classification probabilities as prior information, which is generated from an expectation maximization (EM) algorithm. Diffeomorphic demons is then adopted as the registration model and is optimized in a hierarchical framework (H-SPMI) based on different levels of anatomical structure as prior knowledge. The proposed method is evaluated using Brainweb synthetic data and clinical fMRI images. Both qualitative and quantitative assessment were performed as well as a sensitivity analysis to the segmentation error. Compared to the pure intensity-based approaches which only maximize mutual information, we show that the proposed algorithm provides significantly better accuracy on both synthetic and clinical data.

Adaptation options under climate change for multifunctional agriculture: a simulation study for western Switzerland

Besides its primary role in producing food and fiber, agriculture also has relevant effects on several other functions, such as management of renewable natural resources. Climate change (CC) may lead to new trade-offs between agricultural functions or aggravate existing ones, but suitable agricultural management may maintain or even improve the ability of agroecosystems to supply these functions. Hence, it is necessary to identify relevant drivers (e.g., cropping practices, local conditions) and their interactions, and how they affect agricultural functions in a changing climate. The goal of this study was to use a modeling framework to analyze the sensitivity of indicators of three important agricultural functions, namely crop yield (food and fiber production function), soil erosion (soil conservation function), and nutrient leaching (clean water provision function), to a wide range of agricultural practices for current and future climate conditions. In a two-step approach, cropping practices that explain high proportions of variance of the different indicators were first identified by an analysis of variance-based sensitivity analysis. Then, most suitable combinations of practices to achieve best performance with respect to each indicator were extracted, and trade-offs were analyzed. The procedure was applied to a region in western Switzerland, considering two different soil types to test the importance of local environmental constraints. Results show that the sensitivity of crop yield and soil erosion due to management is high, while nutrient leaching mostly depends on soil type. We found that the influence of most agricultural practices does not change significantly with CC; only irrigation becomes more relevant as a consequence of decreasing summer rainfall. Trade-offs were identified when focusing on best performances of each indicator separately, and these were amplified under CC. For adaptation to CC in the selected study region, conservation soil management and the use of cropped grasslands appear to be the most suitable options to avoid trade-offs.

Home care service utilization in British Columbia: Substitute or complement to acute care?

The desire to promote efficient allocation of health resources and effective patient care has focused attention on home care as an alternative to acute hospital service. in particular, clinical home care is suggested as a substitute for the final days of hospital stay. This dissertation evaluates the relationship between hospital and home care services for residents of British Columbia, Canada beginning in 1993/94 using data from the British Columbia Linked Health database. ^ Lengths of stay for patients referred to home care following hospital discharge are compared to those for patients not referred to home care. Ordinary least squares regression analysis adjusts for age, gender, admission severity, comorbidity, complications, income, and other patient, physician, and hospital characteristics. Home care clients tend to have longer stays in hospital than patients not referred to home care (β = 2.54, p = 0.0001). Longer hospital stays are evident for all home care client groups as well as both older and younger patients. Sensitivity analysis for referral time to direct care and extreme lengths of stay are consistent with these findings. Two stage regression analysis indicates that selection bias is not significant.^ Patients referred to clinical home care also have different health service utilization following discharge compared to patients not referred to home care. Home care nursing clients use more medical services to complement home care. Rehabilitation clients initially substitute home care for physiotherapy services but later are more likely to be admitted to residential care. All home care clients are more likely to be readmitted to hospital during the one year follow-up period. There is also a strong complementary association between direct care referral and homemaker support. Rehabilitation clients have a greater risk of dying during the year following discharge. ^ These results suggest that home care is currently used as a complement rather than a substitute for some acute health services. Organizational and resource issues may contribute to the longer stays by home care clients. Program planning and policies are required if home care is to provide an effective substitute for acute hospital days. ^

The Value of Adding Optics to Ecosystem Models: A Case Study

Many ecosystem models have been developed to study the ocean's biogeochemical properties, but most of these models use simple formulations to describe light penetration and spectral quality. Here, an optical model is coupled with a previously published ecosystem model that explicitly represents two phytoplankton (picoplankton and diatoms) and two zooplankton functional groups, as well as multiple nutrients and detritus. Surface ocean color fields and subsurface light fields are calculated by coupling the ecosystem model with an optical model that relates biogeochemical standing stocks with inherent optical properties (absorption, scattering); this provides input to a commercially available radiative transfer model (Ecolight). We apply this bio-optical model to the equatorial Pacific upwelling region, and find the model to be capable of reproducing many measured optical properties and key biogeochemical processes in this region. Our model results suggest that non-algal particles largely contribute to the total scattering or attenuation (> 50% at 660 nm) but have a much smaller contribution to particulate absorption (< 20% at 440 nm), while picoplankton dominate the total phytoplankton absorption (> 95% at 440 nm). These results are consistent with the field observations. In order to achieve such good agreement between data and model results, however, key model parameters, for which no field data are available, have to be constrained. Sensitivity analysis of the model results to optical parameters reveals a significant role played by colored dissolved organic matter through its influence on the quantity and quality of the ambient light. Coupling explicit optics to an ecosystem model provides advantages in generating: (1) a more accurate subsurface light-field, which is important for light sensitive biogeochemical processes such as photosynthesis and photo-oxidation, (2) additional constraints on model parameters that help to reduce uncertainties in ecosystem model simulations, and (3) model output which is comparable to basic remotely-sensed properties. In addition, the coupling of biogeochemical models and optics paves the road for future assimilation of ocean color and in-situ measured optical properties into the models.

Simulation of the Impact of Dams and Fishing Weirs on Reproductive Potential of Silver-Phase American Eels in the Kennebec River Basin, Maine

I modeled the cumulative impact of hydroelectric projects with and without commercial fishing weirs and water-control dams on the production, survival to the sea, and potential fecundity of migrating female silver-phase American eels, Anguilla rostrata in the Kennebec River basin, Maine, This river basin has 22 hydroelectric projects, 73 water-control dams, and 15 commercial fishing weir sites. The modeled area included an 8,324 km(2) segment of the drainage area between Merrymeeting Bay and the upper limit of American eel distribution in the basin. One set of input,, (assumed or real values) concerned population structure (Le., population density and sex ratio changes throughout the basin, female length-class distribution, and drainage area between dams), Another set concerned factors influencing survival and potential fecundity of migrating American eels (i.e., pathway sequences through projects, survival rate per project by length-class. and length-fecundity relationship). Under baseline conditions about 402,400 simulated silver female American eels would be produced annually reductions in their numbers due to dams and weirs would reduce the realized fecundity (i.e., the number of eggs produced by all females that survived the migration). Without weirs or water-control dams, about 63% of the simulated silverphase American eels survived their freshwater spawning migration run to the sea when the survival rate at each hydroelectric dam was 9017, 40% survived at 80% survival per dam, and 18% survived at 60% survival per dam. Removing the lowermost hydroelectric dam on the Kennebec River increased survival by 6.0-7.6% for the basin. The efficient commercial weirs reduced survival to the sea to 69-76%( of what it would have been without weirs', regardless of survival rates at hydroelectric dams. Water-control dams had little impact on production in this basin because most were located in the upper reaches of tributaries. Sensitivity analysis led to the conclusion that small changes in population density and female length distribution had greater effects on survival and realized fecundity than similar changes in turbine survival rate. The latter became more important as turbine survival rate decreased. Therefore, it might be more fruitful to determine population distribution in basins of interest than to determine mortality rate at each hydroelectric project.

Risk assessment for the design of a risk-based surveillance programme for fish farms in Switzerland (in accordance with Council Directive 2006/88/EC of the European Union).

Swiss aquaculture farms were assessed according to their risk of acquiring or spreading viral haemorrhagic septicaemia (VHS) and infectious haematopoietic necrosis (IHN). Risk factors for the introduction and spread of VHS and IHN were defined and assessed using published data and expert opinions. Among the 357 aquaculture farms identified in Switzerland, 49.3% were categorised as high risk, 49.0% as medium risk and 1.7% as low risk. According to the new Directive 2006/88/EC for aquaculture of the European Union, the frequency of farm inspections must be derived from their risk levels. A sensitivity analysis showed that water supply and fish movements were highly influential on the output of the risk assessment regarding the introduction of VHS and IHN. Fish movements were also highly influential on the risk assessment output regarding the spread of these diseases.

Relating in situ gas measurements to the surface outgassing properties of cometary nuclei

The sensitivity of the gas flow field to changes in different initial conditions has been studied for the case of a highly simplified cometary nucleus model. The nucleus model simulated a homogeneously outgassing sphere with a more active ring around an axis of symmetry. The varied initial conditions were the number density of the homogeneous region, the surface temperature, and the composition of the flow (varying amounts of H2O and CO2) from the active ring. The sensitivity analysis was performed using the Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) method. Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) was used for the flow, thereby allowing strong deviations from local thermal equilibrium. The PCE approach can be used to produce a sensitivity analysis with only four runs per modified input parameter and allows one to study and quantify non-linear responses of measurable parameters to linear changes in the input over a wide range. Hence the PCE allows one to obtain a functional relationship between the flow field properties at every point in the inner coma and the input conditions. It is for example shown that the velocity and the temperature of the background gas are not simply linear functions of the initial number density at the source. As probably expected, the main influence on the resulting flow field parameter is the corresponding initial parameter (i.e. the initial number density determines the background number density, the temperature of the surface determines the flow field temperature, etc.). However, the velocity of the flow field is also influenced by the surface temperature while the number density is not sensitive to the surface temperature at all in our model set-up. Another example is the change in the composition of the flow over the active area. Such changes can be seen in the velocity but again not in the number density. Although this study uses only a simple test case, we suggest that the approach, when applied to a real case in 3D, should assist in identifying the sensitivity of gas parameters measured in situ by, for example, the Rosetta spacecraft to the surface boundary conditions and vice versa.