Extinction debt of high-mountain plants under 21st-century climate change

Quantitative estimates of the range loss of mountain plants under climate change have so far mostly relied on static geographical projections of species' habitat shifts(1-3). Here, we use a hybrid model(4) that combines such projections with simulations of demography and seed dispersal to forecast the climate-driven spatio-temporal dynamics of 150 high-mountain plant species across the European Alps. This model predicts average range size reductions of 44-50% by the end of the twenty-first century, which is similar to projections from the most 'optimistic' static model (49%). However, the hybrid model also indicates that population dynamics will lag behind climatic trends and that an average of 40% of the range still occupied at the end of the twenty-first century will have become climatically unsuitable for the respective species, creating an extinction debt(5,6). Alarmingly, species endemic to the Alps seem to face the highest range losses. These results caution against optimistic conclusions from moderate range size reductions observed during the twenty-first century as they are likely to belie more severe longer-term effects of climate warming on mountain plants.

Molecular evidence of Pleistocene bidirectional faunal exchange between Europe and the Near East: the case of the bicoloured shrew (Crocidura leucodon, Soricidae).

We sequenced 1077 bp of the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene and 511 bp of the nuclear Apolipoprotein B gene in bicoloured shrew (Crocidura leucodon, Soricidae) populations ranging from France to Georgia. The aims of the study were to identify the main genetic clades within this species and the influence of Pleistocene climatic variations on the respective clades. The mitochondrial analyses revealed a European clade distributed from France eastwards to north-western Turkey and a Near East clade distributed from Georgia to Romania; the two clades separated during the Middle Pleistocene. We clearly identified a population expansion after a bottleneck for the European clade based on mitochondrial and nuclear sequencing data; this expansion was not observed for the eastern clade. We hypothesize that the western population was confined to a small Italo-Balkanic refugium, whereas the eastern population subsisted in several refugia along the southern coast of the Black Sea.

Functional responses and heterogeneities: an experimental test with cladocerans

The functional response of predators is usually modelled as a function of absolute prey density. Arditi and Ginzburg have suggested that it should often depend instead on the prey available per capita of predators, i.e. on the prey/predator ratio. Theory suggests that these two forms of dependence are related to the degree of spatial and temporal heterogeneity. Experiments using four filter-feeding cladoceran species were designed to test this hypothesis and to investigate the relation between individual behaviour and population dynamics. The patterns of population abundance that the cladocerans reached at equilibrium match the expectation that species with homogeneous spatial behaviour follow prey-dependent dynamics while those with heterogeneous behaviour follow ratio-dependent dynamics.

Anthropogenic disturbance as a driver of microspatial and microhabitat segregation of cytotypes of Centaurea stoebe and cytotype interactions in secondary contact zones.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: In a mixed-ploidy population, strong frequency-dependent mating will lead to the elimination of the less common cytotype, unless prezygotic barriers enhance assortative mating. However, such barriers favouring cytotype coexistence have only rarely been explored. Here, an assessment is made of the mechanisms involved in formation of mixed-ploidy populations and coexistence of diploid plants and their closely related allotetraploid derivates from the Centaurea stoebe complex (Asteraceae). METHODS: An investigation was made of microspatial and microhabitat distribution, life-history and fitness traits, flowering phenology, genetic relatedness of cytotypes and intercytotype gene flow (cpDNA and microsatellites) in six mixed-ploidy populations in Central Europe. KEY RESULTS: Diploids and tetraploids were genetically differentiated, thus corroborating the secondary origin of contact zones. The cytotypes were spatially segregated at all sites studied, with tetraploids colonizing preferentially drier and open microhabitats created by human-induced disturbances. Conversely, they were rare in more natural microsites and microsites with denser vegetation despite their superior persistence ability (polycarpic life cycle). The seed set of tetraploid plants was strongly influenced by their frequency in mixed-ploidy populations. Triploid hybrids originated from bidirectional hybridizations were extremely rare and almost completely sterile, indicating a strong postzygotic barrier between cytotypes. CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest that tetraploids are later immigrants into already established diploid populations and that anthropogenic activities creating open niches favouring propagule introductions were the major factor shaping the non-random distribution and habitat segregation of cytotypes at fine spatial scale. Establishment and spread of tetraploids was further facilitated by their superior persistence through the perennial life cycle. The results highlight the importance of non-adaptive spatio-temporal processes in explaining microhabitat and microspatial segregation of cytotypes.

Evolution: plastic sociality in a sweat bee.

How and why do bees become social? A transplant experiment shows that sweat bees can adopt a solitary or social lifestyle in response to their environment.

Accès des patients agés aux urgences: evolution démographique et perspectives médico-ethiques [Access of elderly patients in the emergency department: demographic evolution and ethical perspectives].

Due to actual demographic evolution, emergency departments have to face a dramatic increase in admissions of elderly people. The peculiar medical and socio-demographic characteristics of these old patients emphasize the need of specific decision processes and resources allocation. An individual-based approach, related to significant ethical values, should allow better diagnostic and therapeutic attitudes. Such a way to admit, evaluate and treat older patients implies an active collaboration with patients and their relatives, but also with all medical interveners, including in particular primary care physicians.

Predicting the deleterious effects of mutation load in fragmented populations.

Human-induced habitat fragmentation constitutes a major threat to biodiversity. Both genetic and demographic factors combine to drive small and isolated populations into extinction vortices. Nevertheless, the deleterious effects of inbreeding and drift load may depend on population structure, migration patterns, and mating systems and are difficult to predict in the absence of crossing experiments. We performed stochastic individual-based simulations aimed at predicting the effects of deleterious mutations on population fitness (offspring viability and median time to extinction) under a variety of settings (landscape configurations, migration models, and mating systems) on the basis of easy-to-collect demographic and genetic information. Pooling all simulations, a large part (70%) of variance in offspring viability was explained by a combination of genetic structure (F(ST)) and within-deme heterozygosity (H(S)). A similar part of variance in median time to extinction was explained by a combination of local population size (N) and heterozygosity (H(S)). In both cases the predictive power increased above 80% when information on mating systems was available. These results provide robust predictive models to evaluate the viability prospects of fragmented populations.

Evolutionary history of the greater white-toothed shrew (Crocidura russula) inferred from analysis of mtDNA, Y, and X chromosome markers.

We investigate the evolutionary history of the greater white-toothed shrew across its distribution in northern Africa and mainland Europe using sex-specific (mtDNA and Y chromosome) and biparental (X chromosome) markers. All three loci confirm a large divergence between eastern (Tunisia and Sardinia) and western (Morocco and mainland Europe) lineages, and application of a molecular clock to mtDNA divergence estimates indicates a more ancient separation (2.25 M yr ago) than described by some previous studies, supporting claims for taxonomic revision. Moroccan ancestry for the mainland European population is inconclusive from phylogenetic trees, but is supported by greater nucleotide diversity and a more ancient population expansion in Morocco than in Europe. Signatures of rapid population expansion in mtDNA, combined with low X and Y chromosome diversity, suggest a single colonization of mainland Europe by a small number of Moroccan shrews >38 K yr ago. This study illustrates that multilocus genetic analyses can facilitate the interpretation of species' evolutionary history but that phylogeographic inference using X and Y chromosomes is restricted by low levels of observed polymorphism.

Insularity and the evolution of melanism, sexual dichromatism and body size in the worldwide-distributed barn owl.

Abstract Island biogeography has provided fundamental hypotheses in population genetics, ecology and evolutionary biology. Insular populations usually face different feeding conditions, predation pressure, intraspecific and interspecific competition than continental populations. This so-called island syndrome can promote the evolution of specific phenotypes like a small (or large) body size and a light (or dark) colouration as well as influence the evolution of sexual dimorphism. To examine whether insularity leads to phenotypic differentiation in a consistent way in a worldwide-distributed nonmigratory species, we compared body size, body shape and colouration between insular and continental barn owl (Tyto alba) populations by controlling indirectly for phylogeny. This species is suitable because it varies in pheomelanin-based colouration from reddish-brown to white, and it displays eumelanic black spots for which the number and size vary between individuals, populations and species. Females are on average darker pheomelanic and display more and larger eumelanic spots than males. Our results show that on islands barn owls exhibited smaller and fewer eumelanic spots and lighter pheomelanic colouration, and shorter wings than on continents. Sexual dimorphism in pheomelanin-based colouration was less pronounced on islands than continents (i.e. on islands males tended to be as pheomelanic as females), and on small islands owls were redder pheomelanic and smaller in size than owls living on larger islands. Sexual dimorphism in the size of eumelanic spots was more pronounced (i.e. females displayed much larger spots than males) in barn owls living on islands located further away from a continent. Our study indicates that insular conditions drive the evolution towards a lower degree of eumelanism, smaller body size and affects the evolution of sexual dichromatism in melanin-based colour traits. The effect of insularity was more pronounced on body size and shape than on melanic traits.

Vieillissement: éléments pour une politique de santé publique

[Table des matières] 1. Résumé. 2. Introduction. 3. Evolution démographique. 4. Evolution épidémiologique : infarctus du myocarde, insuffisance cardiaque, accident vasculaire cérébral, diabète, bronchopneumopathie chronique obstructive, cancer en général, cancer pulmonaire, cancer colorectal, cancer du sein, cancer de la prostate, dépression, démence sénile de type Alzheimer et autres démences, syndrome parkinsonien et maladie de Parkinson, maladie rhumatismale, arthrose, lombalgie, ostéoporose et fractures, déficit et dépendance fonctionnels. 5. Réponses sanitaires. 6. Recommandations. 7. Lexique. 8. Index des tableaux. 9. Index des figures. 10-11. Annexes.

Migration Determinants at a Local Level

This paper is about determinants of migration at a local level. We use data from Catalan municipalities in order to understand what explains migration patterns trying to identify whether they are main explained by amenities or economic characteristics. We distinguish three typologies of migration in terms of distance travelled: short-distance, short-medium-distance and medium-distance and we hypothesize whether migration determinants vary across these groups. Our results show that, effectively, there are some noticeable differences, suggest that spatial issues must be taken into account and provide some insights for future research. Keywords: population dynamics, spatial econometrics. JEL codes: C21, R0, R23

Bemisia tabaci, Brevicoryne brassicae and Thrips tabaci abundance on Brassica oleracea var. acephala

Kale Brassica oleracea var. acephala is attacked by whitefly Bemisia tabaci, aphid Brevicoryne brassicae and Thrips tabaci. One of the main reasons for extensive insecticide application is the lack of information about factors that control insect population. The objectives of this study were to investigate the relationships between predators and parasitoids, organic compound leaves, levels of leaf nitrogen and potassium, total rainfall, relative humidity, sunlight and median temperature on the abundance of whitefly, aphid, and thrips in kale genotype "Talo Roxo". The beating tray method, direct counting and magnifying lens were used to estimate the number of these pests, predators and parasitoids. Median temperature, sunlight and relative humidity correlated to the amount of leaf nonacosane, which in turn was associated with aphids population increase. A tendency in the reduction of aphids and thrips populations with increase in total rainfall was observed. The whitefly can be a harmful pest in kale producing regions of higher temperature and smaller rainfall. In regions which present moderate temperature, where there is a high incidence of aphids, genotype with low leaf wax content should be chosen. Natural enemies, especially the parasitoid Adialytus spp., can control agents of the aphids population in kale.

Does colonization asymmetry matter in metapopulations?

Despite the considerable evidence showing that dispersal between habitat patches is often asymmetric, most of the metapopulation models assume symmetric dispersal. In this paper, we develop a Monte Carlo simulation model to quantify the effect of asymmetric dispersal on metapopulation persistence. Our results suggest that metapopulation extinctions are more likely when dispersal is asymmetric. Metapopulation viability in systems with symmetric dispersal mirrors results from a mean field approximation, where the system persists if the expected per patch colonization probability exceeds the expected per patch local extinction rate. For asymmetric cases, the mean field approximation underestimates the number of patches necessary for maintaining population persistence. If we use a model assuming symmetric dispersal when dispersal is actually asymmetric, the estimation of metapopulation persistence is wrong in more than 50% of the cases. Metapopulation viability depends on patch connectivity in symmetric systems, whereas in the asymmetric case the number of patches is more important. These results have important implications for managing spatially structured populations, when asymmetric dispersal may occur. Future metapopulation models should account for asymmetric dispersal, while empirical work is needed to quantify the patterns and the consequences of asymmetric dispersal in natural metapopulations.