Response to LIVint-15-00100

Although AST-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) and FIB-4 have been compared with liver biopsy in patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV), hepatitis B virus (HBV), HIV/HCV co-infection, and HIV/HBV co-infection, Johannessen and Lemoine stress that they have not been validated in HIV mono-infected populations in SSA. However, this is unlikely to occur because liver biopsy does not play a role in HIV management and the procedure carries its own risks for complication. Clinicians using APRI and FIB-4 in this setting should be aware of this limitation and should interpret test results in the context of each patient's clinical scenario. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Von Willebrand Factor Improves Risk Prediction in Addition to N-Terminal Pro-B-type Natriuretic Peptide in Patients Referred to Coronary Angiography and Signs and Symptoms of Heart Failure and Preserved Ejection Fraction.

BACKGROUND Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) represents a growing health burden associated with substantial mortality and morbidity. Consequently, risk prediction is of highest importance. Endothelial dysfunction has been recently shown to play an important role in the complex pathophysiology of HFpEF. We therefore aimed to assess von Willebrand factor (vWF), a marker of endothelial damage, as potential biomarker for risk assessment in patients with HFpEF. METHODS AND RESULTS Concentrations of vWF were assessed in 457 patients with HFpEF enrolled as part of the LUdwigshafen Risk and Cardiovascular Health (LURIC) study. All-cause mortality was observed in 40% of patients during a median follow-up time of 9.7 years. vWF significantly predicted mortality with a hazard ratio (HR) per increase of 1 SD of 1.45 (95% confidence interval, 1.26-1.68; P<0.001) and remained a significant predictor after adjustment for age, sex, body mass index, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), renal function, and frequent HFpEF-related comorbidities (adjusted HR per 1 SD, 1.22; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.42; P=0.001). Most notably, vWF showed additional prognostic value beyond that achievable with NT-proBNP indicated by improvements in C-Statistic (vWF×NT-proBNP: 0.65 versus NT-proBNP: 0.63; P for comparison, 0.004) and category-free net reclassification index (37.6%; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS vWF is an independent predictor of long-term outcome in patients with HFpEF, which is in line with endothelial dysfunction as potential mediator in the pathophysiology of HFpEF. In particular, combined assessment of vWF and NT-proBNP improved risk prediction in this vulnerable group of patients.

Evolving biomarkers improve prediction of long-term mortality in patients with stable coronary artery disease: the BIO-VILCAD score.

OBJECTIVE Algorithms to predict the future long-term risk of patients with stable coronary artery disease (CAD) are rare. The VIenna and Ludwigshafen CAD (VILCAD) risk score was one of the first scores specifically tailored for this clinically important patient population. The aim of this study was to refine risk prediction in stable CAD creating a new prediction model encompassing various pathophysiological pathways. Therefore, we assessed the predictive power of 135 novel biomarkers for long-term mortality in patients with stable CAD. DESIGN, SETTING AND SUBJECTS We included 1275 patients with stable CAD from the LUdwigshafen RIsk and Cardiovascular health study with a median follow-up of 9.8 years to investigate whether the predictive power of the VILCAD score could be improved by the addition of novel biomarkers. Additional biomarkers were selected in a bootstrapping procedure based on Cox regression to determine the most informative predictors of mortality. RESULTS The final multivariable model encompassed nine clinical and biochemical markers: age, sex, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), heart rate, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, cystatin C, renin, 25OH-vitamin D3 and haemoglobin A1c. The extended VILCAD biomarker score achieved a significantly improved C-statistic (0.78 vs. 0.73; P = 0.035) and net reclassification index (14.9%; P < 0.001) compared to the original VILCAD score. Omitting LVEF, which might not be readily measureable in clinical practice, slightly reduced the accuracy of the new BIO-VILCAD score but still significantly improved risk classification (net reclassification improvement 12.5%; P < 0.001). CONCLUSION The VILCAD biomarker score based on routine parameters complemented by novel biomarkers outperforms previous risk algorithms and allows more accurate classification of patients with stable CAD, enabling physicians to choose more personalized treatment regimens for their patients.

The ADO index as a predictor of two-year mortality in general practice-based chronic obstructive pulmonary disease cohorts.

BACKGROUND Existing prediction models for mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients have not yet been validated in primary care, which is where the majority of patients receive care. OBJECTIVES Our aim was to validate the ADO (age, dyspnoea, airflow obstruction) index as a predictor of 2-year mortality in 2 general practice-based COPD cohorts. METHODS Six hundred and forty-six patients with COPD with GOLD (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease) stages I-IV were enrolled by their general practitioners and followed for 2 years. The ADO regression equation was used to predict a 2-year risk of all-cause mortality in each patient and this risk was compared with the observed 2-year mortality. Discrimination and calibration were assessed as well as the strength of association between the 15-point ADO score and the observed 2-year all-cause mortality. RESULTS Fifty-two (8.1%) patients died during the 2-year follow-up period. Discrimination with the ADO index was excellent with an area under the curve of 0.78 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.71-0.84]. Overall, the predicted and observed risks matched well and visual inspection revealed no important differences between them across 10 risk classes (p = 0.68). The odds ratio for death per point increase according to the ADO index was 1.50 (95% CI 1.31-1.71). CONCLUSIONS The ADO index showed excellent prediction properties in an out-of-population validation carried out in COPD patients from primary care settings.

A clinical prediction model to identify patients at high risk of death in the emergency department.

PURPOSE Rapid assessment and intervention is important for the prognosis of acutely ill patients admitted to the emergency department (ED). The aim of this study was to prospectively develop and validate a model predicting the risk of in-hospital death based on all available information available at the time of ED admission and to compare its discriminative performance with a non-systematic risk estimate by the triaging first health-care provider. METHODS Prospective cohort analysis based on a multivariable logistic regression for the probability of death. RESULTS A total of 8,607 consecutive admissions of 7,680 patients admitted to the ED of a tertiary care hospital were analysed. Most frequent APACHE II diagnostic categories at the time of admission were neurological (2,052, 24 %), trauma (1,522, 18 %), infection categories [1,328, 15 %; including sepsis (357, 4.1 %), severe sepsis (249, 2.9 %), septic shock (27, 0.3 %)], cardiovascular (1,022, 12 %), gastrointestinal (848, 10 %) and respiratory (449, 5 %). The predictors of the final model were age, prolonged capillary refill time, blood pressure, mechanical ventilation, oxygen saturation index, Glasgow coma score and APACHE II diagnostic category. The model showed good discriminative ability, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.92 and good internal validity. The model performed significantly better than non-systematic triaging of the patient. CONCLUSIONS The use of the prediction model can facilitate the identification of ED patients with higher mortality risk. The model performs better than a non-systematic assessment and may facilitate more rapid identification and commencement of treatment of patients at risk of an unfavourable outcome.

Prediction of arrhythmic events by Wedensky modulation in patients with coronary artery disease.

PRINCIPLES Prediction of arrhythmic events (AEs) has gained importance with the availability of implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (ICDs), but is still imprecise. This study evaluated the innovative Wedensky modulation index (WMI) as predictor of AEs. METHODS In this prospective cohort, 179 patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) referred for AE risk assessment underwent baseline evaluation including measurement of R-/T-wave WMI (WMI(RT)) and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). Two endpoints were assessed 3 years after the baseline evaluation: sudden cardiac death or appropriate ICD event (EP1) and any cardiac death or appropriate ICD event (EP2). Associations between baseline predictors (WMI(RT) and LVEF) and endpoints were evaluated in regression models. RESULTS Only three patients were lost to follow-up. EP1 and EP2 occurred in 24 and 27 patients, respectively. WMI(RT) (odds ratio [OR] per 1 point increase for EP1 20.1, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.8-221.4, p = 0.014, and for EP2 73.3, 95% CI 6.6-817.7, p <0.001) and LVEF (OR per 1% increase for EP1 0.94, 95% CI 0.90-0.99, p = 0.013, and for EP2 0.93, 95% CI 0.89-0.97, p = 0.002) were significantly associated with both endpoints. In bivariable regression controlled for LVEF, WMI(RT) was independently associated with EP1 (p = 0.047) and EP2 (p = 0.007). The combination of WMI(RT) ≥0.60 and LVEF ≤30% resulted in a positive predictive value of 36% for EP1 and 50% for EP2. CONCLUSIONS WMI(RT) is a significant predictor of AEs independent of LVEF and has potential to improve AE risk prediction in CAD patients. However, WMI(RT) should be evaluated in larger and independent samples before recommendations for clinical routine can be made.

1H HR-MAS NMR Based Metabolic Profiling of Cells in Response to Treatment with a Hexacationic Ruthenium Metallaprism as Potential Anticancer Drug.

1H high resolution magic angle spinning (HR-MAS) NMR spectroscopy was applied in combination with multivariate statistical analyses to study the metabolic response of whole cells to the treatment with a hexacationic ruthenium metallaprism [1]6+ as potential anticancer drug. Human ovarian cancer cells (A2780), the corresponding cisplatin resistant cells (A2780cisR), and human embryonic kidney cells (HEK-293) were each incubated for 24 h and 72 h with [1]6+ and compared to untreated cells. Different responses were obtained depending on the cell type and incubation time. Most pronounced changes were found for lipids, choline containing compounds, glutamate and glutathione, nucleotide sugars, lactate, and some amino acids. Possible contributions of these metabolites to physiologic processes are discussed. The time-dependent metabolic response patterns suggest that A2780 cells on one hand and HEK-293 cells and A2780cisR cells on the other hand may follow different cell death pathways and exist in different temporal stages thereof.

Early Improvement As a Predictor of Later Response to Antipsychotics in Schizophrenia: A Diagnostic Test Review

OBJECTIVE How long clinicians should wait before considering an antipsychotic ineffective and changing treatment in schizophrenia is an unresolved clinical question. Guidelines differ substantially in this regard. The authors conducted a diagnostic test meta-analysis using mostly individual patient data to assess whether lack of improvement at week 2 predicts later nonresponse. METHOD The search included EMBASE, MEDLINE, BIOSIS, PsycINFO, Cochrane Library, CINAHL, and reference lists of relevant articles, supplemented by requests to authors of all relevant studies. The main outcome was prediction of nonresponse, defined as <50% reduction in total score on either the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) or Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS) (corresponding to at least much improved) from baseline to endpoint (4-12 weeks), by <20% PANSS or BPRS improvement (corresponding to less than minimally improved) at week 2. Secondary outcomes were absent cross-sectional symptomatic remission and <20% PANSS or BPRS reduction at endpoint. Potential moderator variables were examined by meta-regression. RESULTS In 34 studies (N=9,460) a <20% PANSS or BPRS reduction at week 2 predicted nonresponse at endpoint with a specificity of 86% and a positive predictive value (PPV) of 90%. Using data for observed cases (specificity=86%, PPV=85%) or lack of remission (specificity=77%, PPV=88%) yielded similar results. Conversely, using the definition of <20% reduction at endpoint yielded worse results (specificity=70%, PPV=55%). The test specificity was significantly moderated by a trial duration of <6 weeks, higher baseline illness severity, and shorter illness duration. CONCLUSIONS Patients not even minimally improved by week 2 of antipsychotic treatment are unlikely to respond later and may benefit from a treatment change.

Methylation of NR3C1 is related to maternal PTSD, parenting stress and maternal medial prefrontal cortical activity in response to child separation among mothers with histories of violence exposure.

Prior research has shown that mothers with Interpersonal violence-related posttraumatic stress disorder (IPV-PTSD) report greater difficulty in parenting their toddlers. Relative to their frequent early exposure to violence and maltreatment, these mothers display dysregulation of their hypothalamic pituitary adrenal axis (HPA-axis), characterized by hypocortisolism. Considering methylation of the promoter region of the glucocorticoid receptor gene NR3C1 as a marker for HPA-axis functioning, with less methylation likely being associated with less circulating cortisol, the present study tested the hypothesis that the degree of methylation of this gene would be negatively correlated with maternal IPV-PTSD severity and parenting stress, and positively correlated with medial prefrontal cortical (mPFC) activity in response to video-stimuli of stressful versus non-stressful mother-child interactions. Following a mental health assessment, 45 mothers and their children (ages 12-42 months) participated in a behavioral protocol involving free-play and laboratory stressors such as mother-child separation. Maternal DNA was extracted from saliva. Interactive behavior was rated on the CARE-Index. During subsequent fMRI scanning, mothers were shown films of free-play and separation drawn from this protocol. Maternal PTSD severity and parenting stress were negatively correlated with the mean percentage of methylation of NR3C1. Maternal mPFC activity in response to video-stimuli of mother-child separation versus play correlated positively to NR3C1 methylation, and negatively to maternal IPV-PTSD and parenting stress. Among interactive behavior variables, child cooperativeness in play was positively correlated with NR3C1 methylation. Thus, the present study is the first published report to our knowledge, suggesting convergence of behavioral, epigenetic, and neuroimaging data that form a psychobiological signature of parenting-risk in the context of early life stress and PTSD.

Hazard index maps for woody material recruitment and transport in alpine catchments

A robust and reliable risk assessment procedure for hydrologic hazards deserves particular attention to the role of transported woody material during flash floods or debris flows. At present, woody material transport phenomena are not systematically considered within the procedures for the elaboration of hazard maps. The consequence is a risk of losing prediction accuracy and of underestimating hazard impacts. Transported woody material frequently interferes with the sediment regulation capacity of open check dams and moreover, when obstruction phenomena at critical crosssections of the stream occur, inundations can be triggered. The paper presents a procedure for the determination of the relative propensity of mountain streams to the entrainment and delivery of recruited woody material on the basis of empirical indicators. The procedure provided the basis for the elaboration of a hazard index map for all torrent catchments of the Autonomous Province of Bolzano/Bozen. The plausibility of the results has been thoroughly checked by a backward oriented analysis on natural hazard events, documented since 1998 at the Department of Hydraulic Engineering of the aforementioned Alpine Province. The procedure provides hints for the consideration of the effects, induced by woody material transport, during the elaboration of hazard zone maps.

Valence and agency influence striatal response to feedback in patients with major depressive disorder

BACKGROUND: Reduced sensitivity to positive feedback is common in patients with major depressive disorder (MDD). However, findings regarding negative feedback are ambiguous, with both exaggerated and blunted responses being reported. The ventral striatum (VS) plays a major role in processing valenced feedback, and previous imaging studies have shown that the locus of controls (self agency v. external agency) over the outcome influences VS response to feedback. We investigated whether attributing the outcome to one's own action or to an external agent influences feedback processing in patients with MDD. We hypothesized that depressed participants would be less sensitive to the feedback attribution reflected by an altered VS response to self-attributed gains and losses. METHODS: Using functional MRI and a motion prediction task, we investigated the neural responses to self-attributed (SA) and externally attributed (EA) monetary gains and losses in unmedicated patients with MDD and healthy controls. RESULTS: We included 21 patients and 25 controls in our study. Consistent with our prediction, healthy controls showed a VS response influenced by feedback valence and attribution, whereas in depressed patients striatal activity was modulated by valence but was insensitive to attribution. This attribution insensitivity led to an altered ventral putamen response for SA - EA losses in patients with MDD compared with healthy controls. LIMITATIONS: Depressed patients with comorbid anxiety disorder were included. CONCLUSION: These results suggest an altered assignment of motivational salience to SA losses in patients with MDD. Altered striatal response to SA negative events may reinforce the belief of not being in control of negative outcomes contributing to a cycle of learned helplessness.

At risk or not at risk? A meta-analysis of the prognostic accuracy of psychometric interviews for psychosis prediction

An accurate detection of individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis is a prerequisite for effective preventive interventions. Several psychometric interviews are available, but their prognostic accuracy is unknown. We conducted a prognostic accuracy meta-analysis of psychometric interviews used to examine referrals to high risk services. The index test was an established CHR psychometric instrument used to identify subjects with and without CHR (CHR+ and CHR-). The reference index was psychosis onset over time in both CHR+ and CHR- subjects. Data were analyzed with MIDAS (STATA13). Area under the curve (AUC), summary receiver operating characteristic curves, quality assessment, likelihood ratios, Fagan's nomogram and probability modified plots were computed. Eleven independent studies were included, with a total of 2,519 help-seeking, predominately adult subjects (CHR+: N=1,359; CHR-: N=1,160) referred to high risk services. The mean follow-up duration was 38 months. The AUC was excellent (0.90; 95% CI: 0.87-0.93), and comparable to other tests in preventive medicine, suggesting clinical utility in subjects referred to high risk services. Meta-regression analyses revealed an effect for exposure to antipsychotics and no effects for type of instrument, age, gender, follow-up time, sample size, quality assessment, proportion of CHR+ subjects in the total sample. Fagan's nomogram indicated a low positive predictive value (5.74%) in the general non-help-seeking population. Albeit the clear need to further improve prediction of psychosis, these findings support the use of psychometric prognostic interviews for CHR as clinical tools for an indicated prevention in subjects seeking help at high risk services worldwide.

A prospective, randomized, controlled study using OsseoSpeed™ implants placed in maxillary fresh extraction socket: soft tissues response

PURPOSE The aim of this work was to study the peri-implant soft tissues response, by evaluating both the recession and the papilla indexes, of patients treated with implants with two different configurations. In addition, data were stratified by tooth category, smoking habit and thickness of buccal bone wall. MATERIALS AND METHODS The clinical trial was designed as a prospective, randomized-controlled multicenter study. Adults in need of one or more implants replacing teeth to be removed in the maxilla within the region 15-25 were recruited. Following tooth extraction, the site was randomly allocated to receive either a cylindrical or conical/cylindrical implant. The following parameters were studied: (i) Soft tissue recession (REC) measured by comparing the gingival zenith (GZ) score at baseline (permanent restoration) with that of the yearly follow-up visits over a period of 3 years (V1, V2 and V3). (ii) Interdental Papilla Index (PI): PI measurements were performed at baseline and compared with that of the follow-up visits. In addition, data were stratified by different variables: tooth category: anterior (incisors and canine) and posterior (first and second premolar); smoking habit: patient smoker (habitual or occasional smoker at inclusion) or non-smoker (non-smoker or ex-smoker at inclusion) and thickness of buccal bone wall (TB): TB ≤ 1 mm (thin buccal wall) or TB > 1 mm (thick buccal wall). RESULTS A total of 93 patients were treated with 93 implants. At the surgical re-entry one implant was mobile and then removed; moreover, one patient was lost to follow-up. Ninety-one patients were restored with 91 implant-supported permanent single crowns. After the 3-year follow-up, a mean gain of 0.23 mm of GZ was measured; moreover, 79% and 72% of mesial and distal papillae were classified as >50%/ complete, respectively. From the stratification analysis, not significant differences were found between the mean GZ scores of implants with TB ≤ 1 mm (thin buccal wall) and TB > 1 mm (thick buccal wall), respectively (P < 0.05, Mann-Whitney U-test) at baseline, at V1, V2 and V3 follow-up visits. Also, the other variables did not seem to influence GZ changes over the follow-up period. Moreover, a re-growth of the interproximal mesial and distal papillae was the general trend observed independently from the variables studied. CONCLUSIONS Immediate single implant treatment may be considered a predictable option regarding soft tissue stability over a period of 3 years of follow-up. An overall buccal soft tissue stability was observed during the GZ changes from the baseline to the 3 years of follow-up with a mean GZ reduction of 0.23 mm. A nearly full papillary re-growth can be detectable over a minimum period of 2 years of follow-up for both cylindrical and conical/cylindrical implants. Both the interproximal papilla filling and the midfacial mucosa stability were not influenced by variables such as type of fixture configuration, tooth category, smoke habit, and thickness of buccal bone wall of ≤ 1 mm (thin buccal wall).

A meta-analysis of trabecular bone score in fracture risk prediction and its relationship to FRAX

Trabecular bone score (TBS) is a grey-level textural index of bone microarchitecture derived from lumbar spine dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) images. TBS is a BMD-independent predictor of fracture risk. The objective of this meta-analysis was to determine whether TBS predicted fracture risk independently of FRAX probability and to examine their combined performance by adjusting the FRAX probability for TBS. We utilized individual level data from 17,809 men and women in 14 prospective population-based cohorts. Baseline evaluation included TBS and the FRAX risk variables and outcomes during follow up (mean 6.7 years) comprised major osteoporotic fractures. The association between TBS, FRAX probabilities and the risk of fracture was examined using an extension of the Poisson regression model in each cohort and for each sex and expressed as the gradient of risk (GR; hazard ratio per 1SD change in risk variable in direction of increased risk). FRAX probabilities were adjusted for TBS using an adjustment factor derived from an independent cohort (the Manitoba Bone Density Cohort). Overall, the GR of TBS for major osteoporotic fracture was 1.44 (95% CI: 1.35-1.53) when adjusted for age and time since baseline and was similar in men and women (p > 0.10). When additionally adjusted for FRAX 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture, TBS remained a significant, independent predictor for fracture (GR 1.32, 95%CI: 1.24-1.41). The adjustment of FRAX probability for TBS resulted in a small increase in the GR (1.76, 95%CI: 1.65, 1.87 vs. 1.70, 95%CI: 1.60-1.81). A smaller change in GR for hip fracture was observed (FRAX hip fracture probability GR 2.25 vs. 2.22). TBS is a significant predictor of fracture risk independently of FRAX. The findings support the use of TBS as a potential adjustment for FRAX probability, though the impact of the adjustment remains to be determined in the context of clinical assessment guidelines. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Comparison of ovarian cancer markers in endometriosis favours HE4 over CA125

Endometriosis is a gynaecological condition with an associated chronic inflammatory response. The ectopic growth of 'lesions', consisting of endometrial cells outside the uterine cavity, stimulates an inflammatory response initiating the activation of macrophages, and resulting in increased cytokine and growth factor concentrations in the peritoneal fluid (PF). Endometriosis‑associated inflammation is chronic and long lasting. In patients with endometriosis, the risk of developing ovarian cancer within 10 years, particularly of the endometrioid or clear cell subtype, is increased 2.5‑4 times. Endometriosis creates a peritoneal environment that exposes the affected endometriotic and the normal ovarian surface epithelial cells to agents that have been suggested to be involved in the pathogenesis of cancer. Concentrations of several cytokines and growth factors were increased in the PF of patients with endometriosis. The ovarian cancer marker, CA125, was one such growth factor; however, this remains to be confirmed. Human epididymis protein 4 (HE4) was detected at high concentrations in patients with ovarian cancer and was identified as the best biomarker for the detection of ovarian cancer. The present study determined the levels of HE4 and CA125 in the peritoneal fluid of 258 patients with and 100 control individuals without endometriosis attending the Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, University of Berne (Berne, Switzerland) between 2007 and 2014. The cases were subdivided into groups without hormonal treatment (n=107), or treated with combined oral contraceptives (n=45), continuous gestagens (n=56) or GnRH agonists (n=50). Both of these markers were significantly increased in the non‑treated endometriosis samples compared with the control group. Hormone treatment with either of the three agents mentioned resulted in the concentration of CA125 returning to the control levels and the concentration of HE4 decreasing to below the control levels. CA125, however not HE4, significantly differed between the proliferative and secretory cycle phases. Since HE4 is sensitive to hormonal treatment and robust towards menstrual cycle variation, HE4 is potentially superior to CA125 as an endometriosis marker and therefore has greater potential as a marker for the identification of women at risk of developing ovarian cancer.