Ciclos económicos en economías abiertas y menos desarrolladas: el papel de los "shocks" en los términos de intercambio.The business cycle in open and less developed economies: the rol of terms-of-trade shocks.

Nuestra preocupación reside en estudiar empíricamente el mecanismo de transmisión internacional de ciclos económicos a economías pequeñas y menos desarrolladas (LDC), evaluando el impacto de los shocks en los términos de intercambio en países dónde existen imperfecciones en el mercado crediticio que imponen severas restricciones en el financiamiento de la inversión doméstica y al crecimiento económico. Primero, analizamos si la cuenta corriente responde de manera asimétrica a movimientos de largo plazo en los términos de intercambio. La hipótesis es que “en los buenos tiempos” cuando se produce una mejora permanente en términos de intercambio (y con ello el nivel de ingreso) los individuos no elevan su consumo en un monto acorde con la mejora de su ingreso (permanente) sino que ahorran una fracción del aumento en su dotación para hacer frente a una reversión en la mejora en los términos de intercambios (aunque ésta sea transitoria) en el futuro. En consecuencia, la cuenta corriente (diferencia entre ingreso y absorción) responde de manera positiva a un shock permanente en los términos de intercambio, ya que el individuo ahorra de manera cautelosa –debido a que sabe que no le prestarán para suavizar consumo - aún suponiendo que en el futuro tendrá una reversión transitoria de su ingreso. Segundo, estudiamos la relación dinámica entre los términos de intercambio y la tasa de interés en la economía pequeña abierta y con imperfecciones en el mercado crediticio (información asimétrica). La hipótesis es que la economía doméstica tiene que soportar una prima de riesgo que eleva el costo de la inversión y retarda el crecimiento (Gertler y Rogoff; 1990). Esta prima de riesgo depende, además, en forma negativa del nivel del colateral que tenga la economía. El colateral es la dotación de recursos naturales, por ejemplo, que la economía posee a los fines garantizar el cumplimiento de las obligaciones contraídas (en el modelo presentado las actividades dónde se invierten son independientes del colateral). La hipótesis establecida indica que los cambios en los términos de intercambio generan un aumento del colateral de la economía y una reducción del riesgo país: aumentos en los términos de intercambio reducen la prima de riesgo de la economía que opera en mercados de capitales con asimetrías de información, y como consecuencia aumentarían los ingresos de capitales. De esta forma, se estaría encontrando una explicación a la denominada “Paradoja de Lucas”. Finalmente, el proyecto estudia la conexión entre dos variables “clave” en la economía de los países emergentes: la relación entre los términos de intercambio y el tipo de cambio real. Argumentamos que los efectos de las mejoras de los términos de intercambio sobre los flujos de capitales externos tienden a ser sobreestimadas si no se consideran los efectos “secundarios” de éstas sobre el tipo de cambio real de la economía pequeña menos desarrollada. En este proyecto se controlan estadísticamente esta relación. La estrategia empírica elegida resulta en aplicar a un panel (constituido por dieciocho países de Latinoamérica) el método generalizado de momentos (GMM) a dos modelos de regresión estadística a los fines de abordar de manera eficiente el problema de la endogeneidad de la variable dependiente que actúa como regresor rezagado. La estrategia de estimación elegida enfatiza el análisis de la relación dinámica de las variables económicas incluidas en el análisis. The paper analyzes the general problem related to the transmission of economic cycles to Small Open Economies. The analysis focuses on terms-of-trade shocks, which are considered one of the major sources of income volatility in developing economies. Specifically, we tackle the problem related to the impact of terms-of-trade shocks in Less Developed SOEs. ‘Less Developed SOEs’ are understood as those countries who have borrowing constraints. First, we put to a test the hypothesis of asymmetric response of current account to terms-of-trade shocks (the impact of the shock on current account differs depending whether it is positive or negative), which originates from considering binding restrictions in international capital markets (Agénor and Aizenman; 2004). Second, we investigate about the main determinants of External Capital Flows (ECF) directed to Developing Countries. We put to a test the Gertler and Rogoff (1990) hypothesis that a “risky rate” arises in that markets because the economy has not sufficient amount of wealth to “collateralize” the capital she needs to borrow to take advantage of the investment opportunities she has and additionally because the lender does not have the chance of observing what the borrowed does with the funds (that is information asymmetry arises because the lender can check the realized output of investment but he can not observe if he really invest in the project or secretly lend abroad). Finally, Following Prasad, E. S., Rajan and R. Subramanian, A (2007) we measure the relationship between external capital flows and domestic currency overvaluation. We run a panel GMM estimation for a set of 18 Latin American Countries during the period 1973-2008.

Process simulation of lime calcination in mixed feed shaft kilns

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Verfahrens- und Systemtechnik, Diss., 2012

Synthesis of plantwide control strategies using mixed integer optimization

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Elektrotechnik und Informationstechnik, Diss., 2012

Approximations of the Fisher information for the construction of efficient experimental designs in nonlinear mixed effects models

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Mathematik, Diss., 2012

Neurodegeneration and neurogenesis in organotypic hippocampal slice cultures after oxygen and glucose deprivation

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Experimental design for mixed models with application to population pharmacokinetic studies

experimental design, mixed model, random coefficient regression model, population pharmacokinetics, approximate design

Spatiotemporal metabolic organization during development of brain cell cultures

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Naturwiss., Diss., 2009

Spatio-temporal dynamics of glycolysis in an open spatial reactor

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Verfahrens- und Systemtechnik, Diss., 2008

Optimal designs for mixed effects poisson regression models

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Mathematik, Diss., 2010

The induction of root and shoot morphogenesis in Phaseolus vulgaris tissue cultures

Exogenous concentrations of bean seed extract prepared from seeds pretreated in aerated water, homogenized in Veliky and Martin's 67-V salt solution, filtered, and added to the culture medium at proper concentrations promote callus proliferation, root morphogenesis, and shoot morphogenesis in leaf explains of Phaseolus vulgaris var. Bico de Ouro. The activity of the bean seed factor is dependent upon the period of pretreatment in aerated water.

Seasonal dynamics of a drosophilid (Diptera) assemblage and its potencial as bioindicator in open environments

Drosophila Fallen, 1823 (Diptera, Drosophilidae) is for long a well-established model organism for genetics and evolutionary research. The ecology of these flies, however, has only recently been better studied. Recent papers show that Drosophila assemblies can be used as bioindicators of forested environment degradation. In this work the bioindicator potential of drosophilids was evaluated in a naturally opened environment, a coastal strand-forest (restinga). Data from nine consecutive seasonal collections revealed strong temporal fluctuation pattern of the majority of Drosophila species groups. Drosophila willistoni group was more abundant at autumns, whereas D. cardini and D. tripunctata groups were, respectively, expressive at winters and springs, and D. repleta group at both seasons. The exotic species D. simulans Sturtevant, 1919 (from D. melanogaster group) and Zaprionus indianus Gupta, 1970 were most abundant at summers. Overall, the assemblage structure did not show the same characteristics of forested or urban environments, but was similar to the forests at winters and to cities at summers. This raises the question that this locality may already been under urbanization impact. Also, this can be interpreted as an easily invaded site for exotic species, what might lead to biotic homogenization and therefore can put in check the usage of drosophilid assemblages as bioindicators at open environments.

Life history, biomass and production of Coronatella rectangula (Branchiopoda, Anomopoda, Chydoridae) from Minas Gerais

Species of Chydoridae provide the main diversity of the Cladocera. These organisms have been the subject of many studies; some dealing with their role in energy flow in aquatic ecosystems, since they inhabit the littoral region of water bodies which undergo the first impacts from anthropic activities. The aim of this study is to increase knowledge about the life cycle of Coronatella rectangula (Sars, 1861), a species found in several water bodies in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. The life cycle was determined by the culture of parthenogenetic females under controlled conditions in the laboratory. Experimental cultures were maintained in growth chambers at a constant temperature of 23.6(±0.5)ºC, through a 12 h light/12 h dark photoperiod. The organisms were fed on a suspension of Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata (Chlorophyceae) (10(5) cells.mL-1), and 0.02 mL of a mixed suspension of yeast and fish ration added per organism in equal proportions (1:1). Fifty parthenogenetic females with eggs were isolated and maintained until they produced neonates. Thirty of these neonates that had less than 24 hours were put in polypropylene bottles of 50 mL and kept in a germination chamber. These organisms were observed daily to obtain the parameters of the life cycle. Biomass and secondary production were also calculated. The embryonic development time of the specimens of C. rectangula was 1.68(±0.13) days and the time to reach primipara, was 2.48(±0.45) days. The mean fecundity of C. rectangula was two eggs/female/brood and the total number of eggs produced by the female during its life cycle was 27.8 eggs. During the whole life cycle, specimens of C. rectangula had a maximum of 14 seedlings, with two instars in the juvenile stage. Total biomass for C. rectangula was 36.66 µgDW.m-3(9.83 for the juvenile stage and 26.82 µgDW.m-3 for adults), and secondary production was 12.10 µgDW.m-3.day-1(8.34 µgDW.m-3.day-1 for egg production and 3.76 µgDW.m-3.day-1 for the juvenile stage).