Drought risk assessment as changes in the potential stand yield classes and potential forest production for Sitka spruce, Scots pine, and pedunculate oak over the next 80 years in the Great Britain

Probabilistic climate data have become available for the first time through the UK Climate Projections 2009, so that the risk of tree growth change can be quantified. We assess the drought risk spatially and temporally using drought probabilities and tree species vulnerabilities across Britain. We assessed the drought impact on the potential yield class of three major tree species (Picea sitchensis, Pinus sylvestris, and Quercus robur) which presently cover around 59% (400,700 ha) of state-managed forests, across lowland and upland sites. Here we show that drought impacts result mostly in reduced tree growth over the next 80 years when using b1, a1b and a1fi IPCC emissions scenarios. We found a maximum reduction of 94% but also a maximum increase of 56% in potential stand yield class in the 2080s from the baseline climate (1961-1990). Furthermore, potential production over the national forest estate for all three species in the 2080s may decrease due to drought by 42% in the lowlands and 32% in the uplands in comparison to the baseline climate. Our results reveal that potential tree growth and forest production on the national forest estate in Britain is likely to reduce, and indicate where and when adaptation measures are required. Moreover, this paper demonstrates the value of probabilistic climate projections for an important economic and environmental sector.

Promoting mixed stands through conversion treatments. Effect of holm oak coppices thinning on black pine regeneration

The effects of conversion treatments, depending on ecological factors and silvicultural parameters (thinning intensity, thinning type and rotation, among others) have been studied during the last fifteen years in an experimental trial in Central Spain. The general climate is continental Mediterranean; soils are low depth and limy; vegetation is an homogeneous dense coppices of Quercus ilex with isolated Pinus nigra trees. The experimental design (three locations) includes different thinning intensities (from 0 to 100% of extracted basal area). Inventories have been carried out in 1994 and 2010; thinning treatments were done in 1995 and 2011. Analysis of the effects of the conversion treatment show the increment of diameter and height growth rates, the canopy recovery and the stand resprouting, finding differences in these effects between thinning treatments. Besides the induced changes at holm oak stand, the application of conversion treatment clearly changed the woodland dynamics. Fifteen years after the thinnings, floristic composition varied and an abundant pine regeneration was installed in the woodland. In this work we describe the changes between inventories in tree species composition and diameter distribution, specially in the case of black pine. The conversion treatment caused changes in forest dynamics in the short term, increasing biodiversity and diversifying the forest structure. The fast installation of Pinus regeneration suggests the potential of the zone for the establishment of multipurpose mixed Quercus-Pinus stands in wide areas where Quercus species were favoured by human populations for firewood production. Conversion treatment of coppices, with the creation of mixed stands, constitutes a good management alternative for extensive areas and an interesting technique to adaptation to global change.