Asking sensitive questions: Possibilities and limits of randomized response and other techniques in different survey modes

In our project within the DFG Priority Programme on Survey Methodology (SPP 1292) we conducted various methodological studies on survey techniques for asking sensitive questions. For example, we compared results from the randomized response technique (RRT) to true known data in a validation study, developed and evaluated implementations of the RRT for CATI and online mode, and compared the performance of the RRT to competing approaches. In our talk, we will give an overview of the studies conducted in this project and will present our key findings. Furthermore, we will identify open research questions and give guidelines for future research on asking sensitive questions.

What Limits Bacterial Production in the Suboxic Region of Permanently Ice-Covered Lake Bonney, Antarctica?

Bacterial production assays (thymidine incorporation rates) were used to evaluate the activity of heterotrophic bacteria at the chemocline region in both the East (ELB) and West (WLB) Lobes of permanently ice-covered Lake Bonney, in the Taylor Valley of Antarctica. The magnitude of activity varied dramatically within the depth interval of 1 to 2 m from moderate to very low levels below the chemocline, especially in the East Lobe, where chemical distributions indicate the absence of a normally functioning nitrogen cycle. Several parameters (e.g. addition of nutrients or chelators, dilution) were manipulated in incubation experiments in order to identify factors that would enhance activity in the suboxic deep waters of the East Lobe. Activity, in terms of thymidine incorporation, was consistently detected in the deep-water communities, implying that, although the water may be 'toxic', the cells remain viable. None of the treatments resulted in consistent enhancement of thymidine incorporation rates in samples from below the chemocline. Bacterial populations above the chemocline appear to be phosphorus-limited. The nature of the limitation, toxicity or inhibition that limits bacterial activity in the suboxic waters has not been identified.

On the Limits of Greenwich Mean Time, or The Failure of a Modernist Revolution

On the Limits of Greenwich Mean Time, or The Failure of a Modernist Revolution From the introduction of World Standard Time in 1884 to Einstein’s theory of relativity, the nature and regulation of time was a highly contested issue in modernism, with profound political, social and epistemological consequences. Modernist aesthetic sensibilities widely revolted against the increasingly strict rule of the clock, which, as Georg Simmel observed in “The Metropolis and Mental Life,” was established as the necessary basis of a capitalist, urban life. This paper will focus on the contending conceptions of time arising in key modernist texts by authors like Joyce, Woolf and Conrad. I will argue that the uniformity and regularity of time necessary to a rising capitalist society came under attack in a similar way by both modernist literary aesthetics and new scientific discoveries. However, while Einstein’s theory of relativity may have led to a subsequent change of paradigm in scientific thought, it has failed to significantly alter social and popular conceptions of time. Although alternative ways of thinking and living with time are proposed by modernist authors, they remain isolated aesthetic experiments, ineffectual against the regulatory pressure of economic and social structures. In this struggle about the nature of time, so I suggest, science and literature join force against a society that is increasingly governed by economic reason. The fact that they lost this struggle can serve as a striking illustration of an increasing shift of social influence from science and art towards economy.

Measurement of ℤℤ production in pp collisions at sqrts=7 TeV and limits on anomalous ℤℤℤ ℤℤgamma couplings with the ATLAS detector

A measurement of the ZZ production cross section in proton-proton collisions at root s = 7 TeV using data recorded by the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider is presented. In a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 4.6 fb(-1) collected in 2011, events are selected that are consistent either with two Z bosons decaying to electrons or muons or with one Z boson decaying to electrons or muons and a second Z boson decaying to neutrinos. The ZZ((*)) -> l(+)l(-)l'(+)l'(-) and ZZ -> l(+)l(-) nu(nu) over bar cross sections are measured in restricted phase-space regions. These results are then used to derive the total cross section for ZZ events produced with both Z bosons in the mass range 66 to 116 GeV, sigma(tot)(ZZ) = 6.7 +/- 0.7 (stat.) (+0.4)(-0.3) (syst.) +/- 0.3 (lumi.) pb, which is consistent with the Standard Model prediction of 5.89(-0.18)(+0.22) pb calculated at next-to-leading order in QCD. The normalized differential cross sections in bins of various kinematic variables are presented. Finally, the differential event yield as a function of the transverse momentum of the leading Z boson is used to set limits on anomalous neutral triple gauge boson couplings in ZZ production.

Limits on Spin-Dependent WIMP-Nucleon Cross Sections from 225 Live Days of XENON100 Data

We present new experimental constraints on the elastic, spin-dependent WIMP-nucleon cross section using recent data from the XENON100 experiment, operated in the Laboratori Nazionali del Gran Sasso in Italy. An analysis of 224.6 live days x 34 kg of exposure acquired during 2011 and 2012 revealed no excess signal due to axial-vector WIMP interactions with Xe-129 and Xe-131 nuclei. This leads to the most stringent upper limits on WIMP-neutron cross sections for WIMP masses above 6 GeV/c(2), with a minimum cross section of 3.5 x 10(-40) cm(2) at a WIMP mass of 45 GeV/c(2), at 90% confidence level.

Enhanced Cold Tolerance in Transgenic Tobacco Expressing a Chloroplast Omega-3 Fatty Acid Desaturase Gene under the Control of a Cold-inducible Promoter

A new cold-inducible genetic construct was cloned using a chloroplast-specific omega-3-fatty acid desaturase gene (FAD7) under the control of a cold-inducible promoter (cor15a) from Arabidopsis thaliana. RT-PCR confirmed a marked increase in FAD7 expression, in young Nicotiana tabacum (cv. Havana) plants harboring cor15a-FAD7, after a short-term exposure to cold. When young, cold-induced tobacco seedlings were exposed to low-temperature (0.5, 2 or 3.5 degrees C) for up to 44 days, survival within independent cor15a-FAD7 transgenic lines (40.2-96%) was far superior to the wild type (6.7-10.2%). In addition, the major trienoic fatty acid species remained stable in cold-induced cor15a-FAD7 N. tabacum plants under prolonged cold storage while the levels of hexadecatrienoic acid (16:3) and octadecatrienoic acid (18:3) declined in wild type plants under the same conditions (79 and 20.7% respectively). Electron microscopy showed that chloroplast membrane ultrastructure in cor15a-FAD7 transgenic plants was unaffected by prolonged exposure to cold temperatures. In contrast, wild type plants experienced a loss of granal stacking and disorganization of the thylakoid membrane under the same conditions. Changes in membrane integrity coincided with a precipitous decline in leaf chlorophyll concentration and low survival rates in wild type plants. Cold-induced double transgenic N. alata (cv. Domino Mix) plants, harboring both the cor15a-FAD7 cold-tolerance gene and a cor15a-IPT dark-tolerance gene, exhibited dramatically higher survival rates (89-90%) than wild type plants (2%) under prolonged cold storage under dark conditions (2 degrees C for 50 days).

DISTRIBUTION FUNCTIONS, MEAN SQUARED ERRORS, AND CONFIDENCE LIMITS FOR RIDGE REGRESSION ESTIMATORS

A large number of ridge regression estimators have been proposed and used with little knowledge of their true distributions. Because of this lack of knowledge, these estimators cannot be used to test hypotheses or to form confidence intervals.^ This paper presents a basic technique for deriving the exact distribution functions for a class of generalized ridge estimators. The technique is applied to five prominent generalized ridge estimators. Graphs of the resulting distribution functions are presented. The actual behavior of these estimators is found to be considerably different than the behavior which is generally assumed for ridge estimators.^ This paper also uses the derived distributions to examine the mean squared error properties of the estimators. A technique for developing confidence intervals based on the generalized ridge estimators is also presented. ^

Use of a modified delphi process for establishing occupational exposure limits in support of health surveillance for space travelers

On-orbit exposures can come from numerous factors related to the space environment as evidenced by almost 50 years of environmental samples collected for water analysis, air analysis, radiation analysis, and physiologic parameters. For astronauts and spaceflight participants the occupational exposures can be very different from those experienced by workers performing similar tasks in workplaces on Earth, because the duration of the exposure could be continuous for very long orbital, and eventually interplanetary, missions. The establishment of long-term exposure standards is vital to controlling the quality of the spacecraft environment over long periods. NASA often needs to update and revise its prior exposure standards (Spacecrafts Maximum Allowable Concentrations (SMACs)). Traditional standards-setting processes are often lengthy, so a more rapid method to review and establish standards would be a substantial advancement in this area. This project investigates use of the Delphi method for this purpose. ^ In order to achieve the objectives of this study a modified Delphi methodology was tested in three trials executed by doctoral students and a panel of experts in disciplines related to occupational safety and health. During each test/trial modifications were made to the methodology. Prior to submission of the Delphi Questionnaire to the panel of experts a pilot study/trial was conducted using five doctoral students with the goals of testing and adjusting the Delphi questionnaire to improve comprehension, work out any procedural issues and evaluate the effectiveness of the questionnaire in drawing the desired responses. The remainder of the study consisted of two trials of the Modified Delphi process using 6 chemicals that currently have the potential of causing occupational exposures to NASA astronauts or spaceflight participants. To assist in setting Occupational Exposure Limits (OEL), the expert panel was established consisting of experts from academia, government and industry. Evidence was collected and used to create close-ended questionnaires which were submitted to the Delphi panel of experts for the establishment of OEL values for three chemicals from the list of six originally selected (trial 1). Once the first Delphi trial was completed, adjustments were made to the Delphi questionnaires and the process above was repeated with the remaining 3 chemicals (trial 2). ^ Results indicate that experience in occupational safety and health and with OEL methodologies can have a positive effect in minimizing the time experts take in completing this process. Based on the results of the questionnaires and comparison of the results with the SMAC already established by NASA, we conclude that use of the Delphi methodology is appropriate for use in the decision-making process for the selection of OELs.^

The effects of omega -3 fatty acid -enriched fish on C -reactive protein levels in postmenopausal women

Coronary heart disease (CHD) is the leading cause of death in women and rates markedly increase among women after 65 years of age. C-reactive protein (CRP) is a new clinical indicator of atherosclerotic-related inflammation with a direct pathogenic role. Studies show lifestyle factors can modulate CRP. Omega-3 fatty acids have anti-inflammatory properties and studies suggest that eating fish high in omega-3 fatty acids may lower CHD risk in women. This study sought to assess the possible role of omega-3 fatty acids in the reduction of CHD-related inflammation by investigating the effect of fish consumption on CRP levels. Methods. Twenty-four healthy postmenopausal women were randomly assigned to a fish group (usual diet plus two servings per week of enriched fish) or control group (usual diet with no fatty fish) for eight weeks. Omega-3 fatty acid-enriched fish developed by the West Virginia University Aquaculture Division was used. Serum CRP, serum interleukin-6 (IL-6), and the fatty acid content of red blood cells (RBC) were measured before and after the study. Women also completed food records. RESULTS: Baseline levels of CRP were low (85% of the fish group had normal levels) and few changes in CRP risk category were observed. Mean IL-6 levels were reduced by 27% and 35% in the fish and control groups, respectively (p for between-group difference = 0.60). Changes in RBC fatty acid composition were not statistically significant. Compared to control women, women in the fish group had greater reductions in mean triglycerides (p = 0.08), total cholesterol (P = 0.04), and LDL cholesterol levels (p = 0.06). Baseline dietary intake of total and monounsaturated fatty acids tended to be positively associated with baseline CRP, while vitamin E intake was inversely related. Saturated fat intake tended to have a positive association with IL-6. Conclusions. Findings regarding the effect of two servings of fish on CRP and IL-6 levels are inconclusive due to low baseline levels of CRP and IL-6. However, results indicate two servings of fatty fish have favorable effects on blood lipids. The relationship of dietary components with CRP and IL-6 is complex and further research is needed to determine the varying roles of diet on the inflammatory process. ^