Sucesso terapêutico no controlo da tuberculose em Portugal : determinantes do resultado do tratamento e a sua capacidade preditiva

RESUMO - Enquadramento/objectivos: Apesar do elevado nível de comprometimento em estratégias eficazes para o controlo da tuberculose, em todo o mundo, esta constitui ainda um sério problema de Saúde Pública, com uma estimativa global de 9,4milhões de casos novos em 2008 e 1,8milhões de mortes/ano. O reduzido conhecimento das barreiras e facilitadores para o sucesso terapêutico constitui um importante obstáculo na procura de soluções eficazes de melhoramento da qualidade dos programas de controlo da tuberculose. Este estudo procura contribuir para a identificação atempada de doentes com perfis preditivos de insucesso terapêutico, através da identificação inicial de potenciais determinantes do resultado, com base num modelo epidemiológico e estatístico. Métodos: Foi desenvolvido um estudo de caso-controlo para a população de casos notificados ao Programa Nacional de Controlo da Tuberculose (n=24491), entre 2000-2007. Os factores preditivos de insucesso terapêutico foram identificados na análise bivariada e multivariada, com um nível de significância de 5%; a regressão logística foi utilizada para estimar a odds ratio de insucesso terapêutico, em comparação com o sucesso terapêutico, para diversos factores identificados na literatura, e para os quais os dados se encontravam disponíveis. Resultados: A dependência alcoólica (OR=2,889), o país de origem (OR=3,910), a situação sem-abrigo (OR=3.919), a co-infecção pelo VIH (OR=5,173), a interrupção (OR=60.615) ou falha terapêutica no tratamento anterior (OR=67.345) e a duração do tratamento inferior a 165 dias (OR=1930,133) foram identificados como factores preditivos de insucesso terapêutico. A duração do tratamento inferior a 165 dias provou ser o mais importante determinante do resultado terapêutico. Conclusões: Os resultados sugerem que um doente imigrante, em situação de sem-abrigo, dependente alcoólico, com tratamentos anteriores para a tuberculose e co-infectado pelo VIH apresenta uma elevada probabilidade de insucesso terapêutico. Assim, deverão ser definidas estratégias específicas, centradas no doente por forma a impedir este resultado. A base de dados (SVIG-TB), provou ser uma ferramenta de qualidade para a investigação sobre diversos aspectos do controlo da tuberculose. ------------------------------- ABSTRACT - Background/Objective: Despite the high commitment in good strategies for tuberculosis control worldwide, this is still a serious Public Health problem, with global estimates of 9,4million new cases in 2008 and 1,8million deaths/year. The poor understanding of the barriers and facilitators to treatment success is a major obstacle to find effective solutions to improve the quality of tuberculosis programs. This study tries to contribute to the timely identification of patients with predictive profiles of unsuccessful treatment outcomes, through the initial identification of characteristics probably affecting treatment outcome, found on the basis of an epidemiological and statistical model. Methods: A case-control study was conducted for the population of cases notified to the National Program for Tuberculosis Control (n=24 491), between 2000-2007. Predictive factors for unsuccessful outcome were assessed in a bivariate and multivariate analysis, using a significance level of 5%; a logistic regression was used to estimate the odds-ratio of unsuccessful, as compared to successful outcome, for several factors identified in the literature and to which data was available. Results: Alcohol abuse (OR=2,889), patient´s foreign origin (OR=3,910), homelessness (OR=3,919), HIV co-infection (OR=5,173), interruption (OR=60,615) or unsuccessful outcome in the previous treatment (OR=67,345) and treatment duration below 165 days (OR=1930,133) were identified as predictive of unsuccessful outcomes. A low treatment duration proved to be the most powerful factor affecting treatment outcome. Conclusions: Results suggest that a foreign-born patient, alcohol abuser, who has had a previous treatment for tuberculosis and is co-infected with HIV is very likely to have an unsuccessful outcome. Therefore, specific, patient-centered strategies should be taken to prevent an unsuccessful outcome. The database (SVIG-TB), has proved to be a quality tool on research of various aspects of tuberculosis control.

Epidemiological and clinical aspects of snAkebite in Belo Horizonte, Southeast Brazil

Epidemiologic and clinical aspects of 310 hospitalized snakebite patients and 310 matched controls were described, over a seven years period, from an emergency hospital in Belo Horizonte, Southeast Brazil. The diagnosis was based upon clinical picture or actual snake identification. Fifty six percent of victims were bitten by the snakes of genus Bothrops, 32.0% by Crotalus, 1.0% by Lachesis and 10.0% undetermined. During the study period, stable number of cases and marked seasonal variation were noted. In comparing cases of snakebite and controls, those from a rural area or who were involved in agricultural labor activity were identified as a high risk group, with an odds ratio (OR) of 14.7 and 6.7, respectively, in favor of being bitten. Upon treatment, snakebite patients were 13.5 times more likely to have had early anaphylactic reactions than their controls, with a higher association in the age group ³ 20 years (OR = 30.3). Increased risks were also detected for pyrexia (OR = 11.7), with a marked association in the group under 19 years old (OR = 16.6). Severe cases of snakebite are an important treatable cause of morbidity in Brazil but therapy may be potentially life threatening. The higher case-fatality ratio encountered, compared to national statistics may be due the representativeness of the more severe cases who sought hospitalization. Preventing snakebite and early referral of those who are bitten is proposed

Vitamin D Intake and Cardiometabolic: Risk Factors in Adolescents

Background: A growing body of research suggests that vitamin D might play an important role in overall health. No data exist on vitamin D intake for the Azorean adolescent population. The purpose of this study was to assess vitamin D intake and investigate a possible association between vitamin D intake and cardiometabolic risk factors in Azorean adolescents. Methods: A cross-sectional school-based study was conducted on 496 adolescents (288 girls) aged 15–18 years from the Azorean Islands, Portugal. Anthropometric measurements (waist circumference and height), blood pressure (systolic), and plasma biomarkers [fasting glucose, insulin, total cholesterol (TC), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), and triglycerides (TGs)] were measured to assess metabolic risk. Homeostasis model assessment (HOMA), TC-to-HDL-C ratio, and waist-to-height ratio were calculated. For each of these variables, a Z-score was computed by age and sex. A metabolic risk score was constructed by summing the Zscores of all individual risk factors. High risk was considered when the individual had ‡ 1 standard deviation(SD) of this score. Vitamin D intake was assessed with a semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire. Participants were classified into quartiles of vitamin D intake. Logistic regression was used to determine odds ratios for high cardiometabolic risk scores after adjusting for total energy intake, pubertal stage, fat mass percentage, and cardiorespiratory fitness. Results: Mean (SD) vitamin D intake was 5.8 (6.5) mg/day, and 9.1% of Azorean adolescents achieved the estimated average requirement of vitamin D (10 mg/day or 400 IU). Logistic regression showed that the odds ratio for a high cardiometabolic risk score was 3.35 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.28–8.75] for adolescents in the lowest vitamin D intake quartile in comparison with those in the highest vitamin D intake quartile, even after adjustment for confounders. Conclusion: A lower level of vitamin D intake was associated with worse metabolic profile among Azorean adolescents.

Intake of milk, but not total dairy, yogurt, or cheese, is negatively associated with the clustering of cardiometabolic risk factors in adolescents

Epidemiologic studies have reported an inverse association between dairy product consumption and cardiometabolic risk factors in adults, but this relation is relatively unexplored in adolescents. We hypothesized that a higher dairy product intake is associated with lower cardiometabolic risk factor clustering in adolescents. To test this hypothesis, a cross-sectional study was conducted with 494 adolescents aged 15 to 18 years from the Azorean Archipelago, Portugal. We measured fasting glucose, insulin, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, systolic blood pressure, body fat, and cardiorespiratory fitness. We also calculated homeostatic model assessment and total cholesterol/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio. For each one of these variables, a z score was computed using age and sex. A cardiometabolic risk score (CMRS) was constructed by summing up the z scores of all individual risk factors. High risk was considered to exist when an individual had at least 1 SD from this score. Diet was evaluated using a food frequency questionnaire, and the intake of total dairy (included milk, yogurt, and cheese), milk, yogurt, and cheese was categorized as low (equal to or below the median of the total sample) or “appropriate” (above the median of the total sample).The association between dairy product intake and CMRS was evaluated using separate logistic regression, and the results were adjusted for confounders. Adolescents with high milk intake had lower CMRS, compared with those with low intake (10.6% vs 18.1%, P = .018). Adolescents with appropriate milk intake were less likely to have high CMRS than those with low milk intake (odds ratio, 0.531; 95% confidence interval, 0.302-0.931). No association was found between CMRS and total dairy, yogurt, and cheese intake. Only milk intake seems to be inversely related to CMRS in adolescents.

Association between dairy product intake and abdominal obesity in Azorean adolescents

BACKGROUND: Some studies have reported an inverse association between dairy product (DP) consumption and weight or fat mass loss. OBJECTIVES: The objective of our study was to assess the association between DP intake and abdominal obesity (AO) among Azorean adolescents. SUBJECTS/METHODS: This study was a cross-sectional analysis. A total of 903 adolescents (370 boys) aged 15--16 years was evaluated. Anthropometric measurements were collected (weight, height and waist circumference (WC)) and McCarthy’s cut-points were used to categorize WC. AO was defined when WC was X90th percentile. Adolescent food intake was assessed using a self-administered semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire and DP intake was categorized in o2 and X2 servings/day. Data were analyzed separately for girls and boys, and logistical regression was used to estimate the association between DPs and AO adjusting for potential confounders. RESULTS: The prevalence of AO was 54.9% (boys: 32.1% and girls: 70.7%, Po0.001). For boys and girls, DP consumption was 2.3±1.9 and 2.1±1.6 servings/day (P¼0.185), respectively. In both genders, the proportion of adolescents with WC o90th percentile was higher among individuals who reported a dairy intake of X2 servings/day compared with those with an intake o2 servings/day (boys: 71% vs 65% and girls: 36% vs 24%, Po0.05). After adjustments for confounders, two or more DP servings per day were a negative predictor of AO (odds ratio, 0.217; 95% confidence interval, 0.075 -- 0.633) only in boys. CONCLUSION: We found a protective association between DP intake and AO only in boys.

HEADACHE IN CHAGASIC WOMEN

The aim of this study was to compare the frequency of headache between Chagasic and Non-chagasic women. The cross-sectional study comprised 647 female ³40 years old, Chagasic (n = 362) and Controls (n = 285) at a Brazilian University Hospital. Chagasic were classified as Cardiac (n = 179), Megas (n = 58) or Indeterminate (n = 125) clinical forms. Headache was ascertained according to Headache International Society diagnostic criteria. The age (57.0 ± 11.3 versus 57.3 ± 10.4 years), and the percentage of white women (75.8% versus 77.1%) were similar between Chagasic and Controls, respectively. Headache was more prevalent among Chagasic (32.9%) than Controls (16.1%), mainly in Cardiac form (odds ratio, 2.41; 95% confidence interval, 1.38-4.23), phenomenon possibly related to parasympathetic denervation and cerebral vessels changes.

Desigualdades socioeconómicas na doença cardiovascular em Portugal : estudo baseado no 4º Inquérito Nacional de Saúde

RESUMO - Em Portugal, as doenças cardiovasculares (DCV), incluindo o acidente vascular cerebral (AVC) e a doença cardíaca isquémica (DCI), são das principais causas de morbi-mortalidade e invalidez. Sabe-se que o nível socioeconómico (NSE) influencia o estado de saúde, todavia são escassas as evidências sobre as desigualdades socioeconómicas na DCV em Portugal. O objectivo deste estudo foi analisar a distribuição da DCV de acordo com o NSE na população portuguesa. Foi realizado um estudo transversal exploratório-descritivo usando a base de dados do 4º Inquérito Nacional de Saúde, 2005/06. As desigualdades socioeconómicas nas DCV, AVC e DCI, factores de risco [sedentarismo, hipertensão arterial (HTA), diabetes mellitus (DM), tabagismo, obesidade e sofrimento psicológico (Mental Health Inventory ≤ 52)] e número de consultas médicas, foram analisadas através dos odds ratio por NSE (rendimento familiar equivalente, escala modificada da OCDE) com intervalo de confiança de 95% e dos índices e curvas de concentração. Dos 21 807 indivíduos, 53,34% são do sexo feminino, a idade média é de 54±11 e entre 35 e 74 anos. A DCV, a DCI, o AVC, a HTA, a DM e a obesidade estão associados com NSE mais baixos, o tabagismo está associado aos NSE mais elevados, enquanto o sedentarismo, o número de consultas médicas e o sofrimento psicológico não apresentam associação significativa com o NSE. Os resultados revelam a associação entre os estilos de vida, morbilidade e NSE e demonstram que são necessárias políticas de saúde mais abrangentes, de acordo com as características individuais, culturais e socioeconómicas e dirigidas à promoção da saúde e prevenção da doença. -------------------------------------------- ABSTRACT - Cardiovascular diseases (CVD), including stroke and ischemic heart disease (IHD), are the leading causes of morbidity, mortality and disability in Portugal. It is known that socioeconomic status (SES) influences health status; however there is little evidence about socioeconomic inequalities in CVD in Portugal. The aim of this study was to analyze the distribution of CVD according to SES in the Portuguese population. We conducted a cross-sectional descriptive exploratory study using the database of the 4th National Survey of Health, 2005/06. Socioeconomic inequalities in CVD, stroke, IHD, risk factors [physical inactivity, arterial hypertension (AHT), diabetes mellitus (DM), smoking, obesity and psychological distress (Mental Health Inventory ≤ 52)], as well as the number of medical visits, were analyzed by SES (family income using the OECD modified equivalent scale) using odds ratio (confidence interval = 95%), and concentration curves and indices. Of the 21 807 individuals, 53.34% are female, aged between 35 and 74 with mean 54 ± 11 years. CVD, IHD, stroke, AHT, MD and obesity are associated with lower SES, smoking is associated with higher SES, while physical inactivity, number of medical visits and psychological distress showed no significant association with SES. Results suggest an association between lifestyle, morbidity and SES. They also demonstrate the need for comprehensive health strategies, involving health promotion and disease prevention, that incorporate individual, cultural and socioeconomic characteristics.

Identification of risk factors for death from tetanus in Pernambuco, Brazil: a case-control study

A case-control study was conducted to identify risk factors for death from tetanus in the State of Pernambuco, Brazil. Information was obtained from medical records of 152 cases and 152 controls, admitted to the tetanus unit in the State University Hospital, in Recife, from 1990 to 1995. Variables were grouped in three different sets. Crude and adjusted odds ratios, p-values and 95% confidence intervals were estimated. Variables selected in the multivariate analysis in each set were controlled for the effect of those selected in the others. All factors related to the disease progression - incubation period, time elapsed between the occurrence of the first tetanus symptom and admission, and period of onset - showed a statistically significant association with death from tetanus. Similarly, signs and/or symptoms occurring on admission or in the following 24 hours (second set): reflex spasms, neck stiffness, respiratory signs/symptoms and respiratory failure requiring artificial ventilation (third set) were associated with death from tetanus even when adjusted for the effect of the others.

The association between serum potassium at hospital admission and the case-fatality rate of leptospirosis in men

Severe leptospirosis affects predominantly males and presents a high susceptibility to hypokalemic acute renal failure. As hypokalemia and hyperkalemia induce severe complications, it is important to evaluate if the initial serum potassium is an independent risk factor for death in leptospirosis. The medical records of 1016 patients hospitalized with the diagnosis of leptospirosis were reviewed. The analysis was restricted to 442, according to the following criteria: male, 18 years or older, information about death or hospital discharge and recorded values of serum potassium, serum creatinine and duration of symptoms at admission. Potassium values lower than 3.5 mEq/L (hypoK), 3.5-5 mEq/L (normoK) and above 5 mEq/L (hyperK) were detected in 180, 245 and 17 patients, respectively. The death rate increased with serum potassium: 11.1% in the hypoK, 14.7% in the normoK and 47.1% in the hyperK group (p = 0.002). In a logistic regression model (normoK as referent), including age, creatinine and duration of symptoms, hypoK was not associated with increased death rate (odds ratio (OR) = 0.80; p > 0.1). On the other hand, hyperK showed a significant association with increased risk of death (OR = 3.95, p = 0.021). In conclusion, in this sample of men with leptospirosis initial serum potassium was positively and independently correlated with the risk of in-hospital death.

Prevalence of putative periodontopathogens from periodontal patients and healthy subjects in São Paulo, SP, Brazil

A. actinomycetemcomitans, B. forsythus, P. gingivalis, C. rectus, E. corrodens, P. intermedia, F. nucleatum, and T. denticola were identified from subgingival plaque from 50 periodontal patients and 50 healthy subjects. PCR products from each species showed a specific band and could be used to identify periodontal organisms from clinical specimens. Identical negative or positive results between PCR and culture occurred in 66% (A. actinomycetemcomitans) to 93% (F. nucleatum) of the samples. PCR detection odds ratio values for A. actinomycetemcomitans, B. forsythus, C. rectus, E. corrodens, P. intermedia, and T. denticola were significantly associated with disease having a higher OR values for B. forsythus (2.97, 95% CI 1.88 - 4.70). Cultures showed that A. actinomycetemcomitans, B. forsythus and P. intermedia were associated with periodontitis, however, P. gingivalis, C. rectus, E. corrodens and F. nucleatum were not significantly associated with the disease.

Comparative study of the in-hospital case-fatality rate of leptospirosis between pediatric and adult patients of different age groups

The main objective was to compare the in-hospital case-fatality rate of leptospirosis between pediatric (< 19 years) and adult (>19 years) patients, taking into account gender, renal function, duration of symptoms and jaundice. Medical records of 1016 patients were reviewed. Comparative analysis was restricted to 840 patients (100 pediatric, 740 adults) with recorded information on the variables included in the analysis. Among these patients 81.7% were male and 91.5% were icteric. The case-fatality rate of leptospirosis was 14.4%. The odds of death adjusted for gender, jaundice, duration of symptoms, serum urea and serum creatinine were almost four times higher for the adult than for the pediatric group (odds ratio (OR) = 3.94; 95% confidence interval = 1.19-13.03, p = 0.029). Among adults, increased age was also significantly and independently associated with increased risk of death (p < 0.01). Older patients were also more often treated by dialysis. In conclusion, the data suggest that the in-hospital case fatality rate of leptospirosis is higher for adults than for children and adolescents, even after taking into account the effects of several potential risk factors of death. Among adults, older age was also strongly and independently associated with higher risk of death.

Importância da Presença de Lesões Adicionais Complexas no Contexto de Angioplastia Primária no Enfarte Agudo do Miocárdio no Prognóstico a Médio-Prazo

Introdução: Existe alguma controvérsia respeitante ao tipo de revascularização a efectuar no contexto de angioplastia (PCI) primária no enfarte agudo do miocárdio (EAM). A presença de lesões coronárias adicionais, particularmente complexas, poderá ter impacto no prognóstico. Objectivos: Avaliar o prognóstico a médio-prazo (1 ano) face à presença de lesões adicionais complexas após PCI primária. População e Métodos: Estudaram-se retrospectivamente 138 doentes consecutivos admitidos na nossa Unidade por EAM com elevação do segmento ST e submetidos a PCI primária. Os doentes foram seguidos por um período de 1 ano e divididos em 2 grupos: sem lesões adicionais complexas (n=69, 61 ± 14 anos, 62% sexo masculino) e com lesões adicionais complexas (n=69, 65 ± 13 anos, 73% sexo masculino, p=NS). Avaliaram-se as características demográficas, factores de risco para doença coronária, história prévia cardíaca, e presença de sinais de insuficiência cardíaca na admissão. Foram também avaliadas características angiográficas, medicação efectuada e resultado da PCI. Avaliou-se o impacto das variáveis na ocorrência combinada de morte/re-enfarte/revascularização miocárdica ao primeiro ano. Resultados: A taxa de sucesso angiográfico foi de 96,4%. O grupo com idade igual ou superior a 75 anos representa 24% da população e 4,3% apresentaram-se em classe Killip IV. A localização anterior foi ligeiramente superior no grupo sem lesões adicionais complexas (60% vs. 44%, p=0,06), a inferior no grupo com lesões adicionais complexas (26% vs. 42%, p=0,07). A doença de 1 vaso foi mais prevalente no grupo sem lesões adicionais complexas como esperado (86% vs. 11%, p<0,001). A utilização de stent foi mais frequente no grupo sem lesões adicionais complexas (96% vs. 86%, p=0,08). Não houve diferenças nas restantes variáveis. A taxa de morte/re-enfarte/revascularização foi superior no grupo com lesões adicionais complexas (13% vs. 32%, p=0,014). Até aos 13 dias de seguimento, ocorreram 67% dos eventos. Na análise univariada, os factores predizentes de eventos foram a classe Killip 2, fluxo TIMI < 3 no vaso relacionado com enfarte após PCI, a não utilização de antagonistas da glicoproteína IIb/IIIa, bloqueadores beta e estatinas, doença multivaso e presença de lesões adicionais complexas (Log-rank, p=0,003). Na análise multivariável, os factores predizentes independentes de prognóstico a 1 ano foram a classe Killip 2 (Odds ratio 0,28%; IC 95% 0,08-0,93, p=0,037) e a presença de lesões adicionais complexas (OR 0,32; IC 95% 0,12-0,84, p=0,020). Conclusões: A presença de lesões adicionais complexas após PCI primária tem um pior prognóstico ao primeiro ano, sugerindo a necessidade de intervenção para a sua estabilização, particularmente nos primeiros 30 dias após enfarte.

Análise Descritiva de Parturientes e Recém-Nascidos na Maternidade: Hospital Dona Estefânia entre 2005 e 2008

Entre 2005 e 2008, registaram-se 8413 nascimentos na maternidade do Hospital Dona Estefânia (HDE), aproximadamente 8% do total nacional no mesmo período. A mortalidade fetal (0,20%) atingiu os objectivos do Plano Nacional de Saúde (PNS) para 2010 e está aos melhores niveis da União Europeia. Contudo, a percentagem média de nascimentos prétermo (8,1%) e de cesarianas (31,9%) situam-se ainda acima das metas estabelecidas pelo PNS de, respectivamente, 4,9% e 24,8%. O odds ratio de ocorrência de um índice Apgar baixo aos 5 minutos por cada 100 g de peso a menos à nascença foi de 1,35 e por cada semana a menos de gestação foi de 1,33. As parturientes tiveram em média 30,4 anos de idade, sendo 3,8% adolescentes. Cerca de 22% eram estrangeiras, valor superior à média nacional de 9%. Registou-se variabilidade entre as principais nacionalidades quanto a percentagem de partos pré-termo e de cesarianas, sendo menor nas mães chinesas. Encontrou-se significado estatístico na relação do peso à nascença com a idade de gestação,tipo de gravidez (simples/gemelar), sexo, paridade e idade da mãe. Fixando as covariáveis,uma semana de gestação a mais correspondeu, em média, a mais 176 g; um recém-nascido(RN) gémeo teve, em média, menos 381 g que um não-gémeo e um RN do sexo feminino pesou, em média, menos 48 g que um masculino. Apresentam-se tabelas de percentis de peso por sexo e idade gestacional (36-41 semanas) para os RN do HDE.

Development and validation of a risk model for prediction of hazardous alcohol consumption in general practice attendees : the PredictAL study

Background: Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL) for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers. Methods: A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score >= 8 in men and >= 5 in women. Results: 69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873). The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51). External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846) and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78). Conclusions: The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse.

Influence of Apolipoprotein E Plasma Levels and Tobacco Smoking on the Induction of Neutralising Antibodies to Interferon-Beta

Interferon-beta (IFN-beta) therapy for multiple sclerosis (MS) is associated with a potential for induction of neutralizing antibodies (NAbs). Because immune reactivity depends on changes in lipoprotein metabolism, we investigated whether plasma lipoprotein profiles could be associated with the development of NAbs. Thirty-one female MS patients treated with subcutaneously administered IFN-beta were included. Demographic and clinical characteristics were compared between NAbs response groups using t tests for continuous and logistic regression analysis and Fisher's exact tests for categorical data, respectively. Multivariate logistic regression was used to evaluate the effect of potential confounders. Patients who developed NAbs had lower apoE levels before treatment, 67 (47-74) mg/L median (interquartile range), and at the moment of NAb analysis, 53 (50-84) mg/L, in comparison to those who remained NAb-negative, 83 (68-107) mg/L, P = 0.03, and 76 (66-87) mg/L, P = 0.04, respectively. When adjusting for age and smoking for a one-standard deviation decrease in apoE levels, a 5.6-fold increase in the odds of becoming NAb-positive was detected: odds ratios (OR) 0.18 (95% CI 0.04-0.77), P = 0.04. When adjusting for apoE, smoking habit became associated with NAb induction: OR 5.6 (95% CI 1.3-87), P = 0.03. These results suggest that apoE-containing lipoprotein metabolism and, possibly, tobacco smoking may be associated with risk of NAb production in female MS patients treated with IFN-beta.