Technical efficiency:efficiency, change, technical progress and productivity growth in the national health systems of continental African countries

In May 2006, the Ministers of Health of all the countries on the African continent, at a special session of the African Union, undertook to institutionalise efficiency monitoring within their respective national health information management systems. The specific objectives of this study were: (i) to assess the technical efficiency of National Health Systems (NHSs) of African countries for measuring male and female life expectancies, and (ii) to assess changes in health productivity over time with a view to analysing changes in efficiency and changes in technology. The analysis was based on a five-year panel data (1999-2003) from all the 53 countries of continental Africa. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) - a non-parametric linear programming approach - was employed to assess the technical efficiency. Malmquist Total Factor Productivity (MTFP) was used to analyse efficiency and productivity change over time among the 53 countries' national health systems. The data consisted of two outputs (male and female life expectancies) and two inputs (per capital total health expenditure and adult literacy). The DEA revealed that 49 (92.5%) countries' NHSs were run inefficiently in 1999 and 2000; 50 (94.3%), 48 (90.6%) and 47 (88.7%) operated inefficiently in 2001, 2002, and 2003 respectively. All the 53 countries' national health systems registered improvements in total factor productivity attributable mainly to technical progress. Fifty-two countries did not experience any change in scale efficiency, while thirty (56.6%) countries' national health systems had a Pure Efficiency Change (PEFFCH) index of less than one, signifying that those countries' NHSs pure efficiency contributed negatively to productivity change. All the 53 countries' national health systems registered improvements in total factor productivity, attributable mainly to technical progress. Over half of the countries' national health systems had a pure efficiency index of less than one, signifying that those countries' NHSs pure efficiency contributed negatively to productivity change. African countries may need to critically evaluate the utility of institutionalising Malmquist TFP type of analyses to monitor changes in health systems economic efficiency and productivity over time. African national health systems, per capita total health expenditure, technical efficiency, scale efficiency, Malmquist indices of productivity change, DEA

Variational Markov Chain Monte Carlo for Bayesian smoothing of non-linear niffusions

In this paper we develop set of novel Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for Bayesian smoothing of partially observed non-linear diffusion processes. The sampling algorithms developed herein use a deterministic approximation to the posterior distribution over paths as the proposal distribution for a mixture of an independence and a random walk sampler. The approximating distribution is sampled by simulating an optimized time-dependent linear diffusion process derived from the recently developed variational Gaussian process approximation method. Flexible blocking strategies are introduced to further improve mixing, and thus the efficiency, of the sampling algorithms. The algorithms are tested on two diffusion processes: one with double-well potential drift and another with SINE drift. The new algorithm's accuracy and efficiency is compared with state-of-the-art hybrid Monte Carlo based path sampling. It is shown that in practical, finite sample, applications the algorithm is accurate except in the presence of large observation errors and low observation densities, which lead to a multi-modal structure in the posterior distribution over paths. More importantly, the variational approximation assisted sampling algorithm outperforms hybrid Monte Carlo in terms of computational efficiency, except when the diffusion process is densely observed with small errors in which case both algorithms are equally efficient.

Optimization of chemical plant simulation using double collocation

A method has been constructed for the solution of a wide range of chemical plant simulation models including differential equations and optimization. Double orthogonal collocation on finite elements is applied to convert the model into an NLP problem that is solved either by the VF 13AD package based on successive quadratic programming, or by the GRG2 package, based on the generalized reduced gradient method. This approach is termed simultaneous optimization and solution strategy. The objective functional can contain integral terms. The state and control variables can have time delays. Equalities and inequalities containing state and control variables can be included into the model as well as algebraic equations and inequalities. The maximum number of independent variables is 2. Problems containing 3 independent variables can be transformed into problems having 2 independent variables using finite differencing. The maximum number of NLP variables and constraints is 1500. The method is also suitable for solving ordinary and partial differential equations. The state functions are approximated by a linear combination of Lagrange interpolation polynomials. The control function can either be approximated by a linear combination of Lagrange interpolation polynomials or by a piecewise constant function over finite elements. The number of internal collocation points can vary by finite elements. The residual error is evaluated at arbitrarily chosen equidistant grid-points, thus enabling the user to check the accuracy of the solution between collocation points, where the solution is exact. The solution functions can be tabulated. There is an option to use control vector parameterization to solve optimization problems containing initial value ordinary differential equations. When there are many differential equations or the upper integration limit should be selected optimally then this approach should be used. The portability of the package has been addressed converting the package from V AX FORTRAN 77 into IBM PC FORTRAN 77 and into SUN SPARC 2000 FORTRAN 77. Computer runs have shown that the method can reproduce optimization problems published in the literature. The GRG2 and the VF I 3AD packages, integrated into the optimization package, proved to be robust and reliable. The package contains an executive module, a module performing control vector parameterization and 2 nonlinear problem solver modules, GRG2 and VF I 3AD. There is a stand-alone module that converts the differential-algebraic optimization problem into a nonlinear programming problem.

The effect of haem limitation and iron restriction on outer membrane proteins and on respiratory systems of non typable Haemophilus influenzae

The effects of haem limitation and iron restriction on cells of non typable Haemophilus influenzae were investigated. Haem limitation was achieved by adding concentrations of haem to growth media which resulted in substantial decreases in final cell yields. Iron restriction was achieved by substituting protoporphyrin IX (PPIX) for haem in the growth medium and adding an iron chelator to the system. The effect of these nutrient limitations on a) outer membrane composition, and b) respiratory systems of non typable H.influenzae was investigated. Several of the strains examined produced new PPIX-specific outer membrane proteins when cultured utilising PPIX as a porphyrin source. The immune response of patients with bronchiectasis to outer membrane antigens of H.influenzae cultured under iron-restricted conditions was analysed by ELISA and immunoblotting techniques. ELISA analysis revealed that individuals with severe bronchiectasis had high titres of antibodies directed against H.influenzae OMs in both serum and sputum. Immunoblotting with homologous serum showed that where PPIX-specific OMPs were produced they were antigenic and were recognised by patients' serum. This suggested that these H.influenzae OMPs may be expressed in vivo. Additionally, the development of the immune responses to non typable H.influenzae outer membrane antigens was investigated using a rat lung model. Bacteria encased in agar beads were inoculated intratracheally into rat lungs, infection was established, and the immune response monitored for 6 weeks. The animals developed antibodies to PPIX-specific OMPs during the course of infection, providing further evidence that H.influenzae express these novel OMP antigens when growing in vivo. Studies in vitro on respiratory systems of phenotypically altered H.influenzae showed that bacteria grown utilising PPIX as a porphyrin source, or under conditions of iron-restriction produced ten fold fewer cytochromes than cells grown in nutrient excess, while haem limited H.influenzae produced no detectable cytochromes. Respiration of various substrates was depressed in haem limited and in PPIX-grown cultures as compared with cells grown in nutrient excess.

Non-linear hierarchical visualisation

This thesis applies a hierarchical latent trait model system to a large quantity of data. The motivation for it was lack of viable approaches to analyse High Throughput Screening datasets which maybe include thousands of data points with high dimensions. High Throughput Screening (HTS) is an important tool in the pharmaceutical industry for discovering leads which can be optimised and further developed into candidate drugs. Since the development of new robotic technologies, the ability to test the activities of compounds has considerably increased in recent years. Traditional methods, looking at tables and graphical plots for analysing relationships between measured activities and the structure of compounds, have not been feasible when facing a large HTS dataset. Instead, data visualisation provides a method for analysing such large datasets, especially with high dimensions. So far, a few visualisation techniques for drug design have been developed, but most of them just cope with several properties of compounds at one time. We believe that a latent variable model (LTM) with a non-linear mapping from the latent space to the data space is a preferred choice for visualising a complex high-dimensional data set. As a type of latent variable model, the latent trait model can deal with either continuous data or discrete data, which makes it particularly useful in this domain. In addition, with the aid of differential geometry, we can imagine the distribution of data from magnification factor and curvature plots. Rather than obtaining the useful information just from a single plot, a hierarchical LTM arranges a set of LTMs and their corresponding plots in a tree structure. We model the whole data set with a LTM at the top level, which is broken down into clusters at deeper levels of t.he hierarchy. In this manner, the refined visualisation plots can be displayed in deeper levels and sub-clusters may be found. Hierarchy of LTMs is trained using expectation-maximisation (EM) algorithm to maximise its likelihood with respect to the data sample. Training proceeds interactively in a recursive fashion (top-down). The user subjectively identifies interesting regions on the visualisation plot that they would like to model in a greater detail. At each stage of hierarchical LTM construction, the EM algorithm alternates between the E- and M-step. Another problem that can occur when visualising a large data set is that there may be significant overlaps of data clusters. It is very difficult for the user to judge where centres of regions of interest should be put. We address this problem by employing the minimum message length technique, which can help the user to decide the optimal structure of the model. In this thesis we also demonstrate the applicability of the hierarchy of latent trait models in the field of document data mining.

Non-linear temperature response of Bragg gratings in doped and un-doped holey polymer optical fibre

We present measurements on the non-linear temperature response of fibre Bragg gratings recorded in pure and trans-4-stilbenemethanol-doped polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA) holey fibres.

Experimental measurement of switched reluctance motor non-linear characteristics

For a Switched Reluctance Motor (SRM), the flux linkage characteristic is the most basic magnetic characteristic, and many other quantities, including the incremental inductance, back emf, and electromagnetic torque can be determined indirectly from it. In this paper, two methods of measuring the flux linkage profile of an SRM from the phase winding voltage and current measurements, with and without rotor locking devices, are presented. Torque, incremental inductance and back emf characteristics of the SRM are then obtained from the flux linkage measurements. The torque of the SRM is also measured directly as a comparison, and the closeness of the calculated and directly measured torque curves suggests the validity of the method to obtain the SRM torque, incremental inductance and back emf profiles from the flux linkage measurements. © 2013 IEEE.

Study of synchronisation in chains of coupled non-linear oscillators and resonators

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A comparisation of methods for the optimisation of a non-linear function subject to non-linear constraints

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Travelling-wave model of semiconductor optical amplifier based non-linear loop mirror

A travelling-wave model of a semiconductor optical amplifier based non-linear loop mirror is developed to investigate the importance of travelling-wave effects and gain/phase dynamics in predicting device behaviour. A constant effective carrier recovery lifetime approximation is found to be reasonably accurate (±10%) within a wide range of control pulse energies. Based on this approximation, a heuristic model is developed for maximum computational efficiency. The models are applied to a particular configuration involving feedback.

Computing and Visualizing Solution Sets of Interval Linear Systems

The paper has been presented at the 12th International Conference on Applications of Computer Algebra, Varna, Bulgaria, June, 2006

Oscillation Theorems for Perturbed Second Order Nonlinear Differential Equations with Damping

Some oscillation criteria for solutions of a general perturbed second order ordinary differential equation with damping (r(t)x′ (t))′ + h(t)f (x)x′ (t) + ψ(t, x) = H(t, x(t), x′ (t)) with alternating coefficients are given. The results obtained improve and extend some existing results in the literature.

Mean-Periodic Solutions of Retarded Functional Differential Equations

In this paper we present a spectral criterion for existence of mean-periodic solutions of retarded functional differential equations with a time-independent main part.