A monthly indicator of Brazilian GDP. The Brazilian business cycle and growth cycle

This paper constructs an indicator of Brazilian GDP at the monthly ftequency. The peculiar instability and abrupt changes of regimes in the dynamic behavior of the Brazilian business cycle were explicitly modeled within nonlinear ftameworks. In particular, a Markov switching dynarnic factor model was used to combine several macroeconomic variables that display simultaneous comovements with aggregate economic activity. The model generates as output a monthly indicator of the Brazilian GDP and real time probabilities of the current phase of the Brazilian business cycle. The monthly indicator shows a remarkable historical conformity with cyclical movements of GDP. In addition, the estimated filtered probabilities predict ali recessions in sample and out-of-sample. The ability of the indicator in linear forecasting growth rates of GDP is also examined. The estimated indicator displays a better in-sample and out-of-sample predictive performance in forecasting growth rates of real GDP, compared to a linear autoregressive model for GDP. These results suggest that the estimated monthly indicator can be used to forecast GDP and to monitor the state of the Brazilian economy in real time.

Welfare and growth effects of alternative fiscal rules for infrastructure investment in Brazil

This article studies the interplay between fiscal rules, public investment and growth in Brazil. It is investigated if it would make sense to raise public investment and, if so, under which fiscal rule it is best to do it — whether through tax financing, debt financing, or a reduction of public consumption. We construct and simulate a competitive general equilibrium model, calibrated to Brazilian economy, in which public capital is a component of the production function and public consumption directly affects individuals’ well-being. After assessing the impacts of alternative fiscal rules, the paper concludes that the most desirable financing scheme is the reduction of public consumption, which dominates the others in terms of output and welfare gains. The model replicates the observed growth slowdown of the Brazilian economy when we increase taxes and reduce public capital formation to the levels observed after 1980 and shows that the growth impact of the expansion of tax collection in Brazil was much larger than that of public investment compression.

Environmental policy and growth when inputs are differentiated in pollution intensity

Environmental policy affects the distribution of market shares if intermediate goods are differentiated in their pollution intensity. When innovations are environment-friendly, a tax on emissions skews demand towards new goods which are the most productive. In this case, the tax has to increase along a balanced growth path to keep the market shares of goods of different vintages constant. Comparing balanced growth paths, we find that an increase in the burden of environmental taxation spurs innovation because it increases the market share of recent vintages. As a result the cost of environmental policy in terms of slower growth is weaker and may even be absent.

Democracy and growth in pre-industrial countries

This paper distinguishes three types of countries (rich, middle-income, and pre-industrial) and focus on the latter, which, in contrast to the other two, didn’t complete their industrial and capitalist revolutions. Can pre-industrial countries be governed well and embody the principles of consolidated democracies? Today these countries are under pressure from the imperial West to eschew institutions and developmental strategies that, in the past, allowed rich and middle-income countries to industrialize. At the same time, they are pressured by these same Western parties (and by its own people) to be democratic, even though their societies are not mature enough to fulfill that. In fact, no country completed its industrial and capitalist revolution within the framework of even a minimal democracy, suggesting that such demands are unfair. Added to this, pre-industrial countries are extremely difficult to govern because they usually don’t have a strong nation and capable states. This double pressure to renounce development strategies that have worked for the West while being required to become a democracy represents a major obstacle to their development.

Population structure and growth of the hermit crab Pagurus brevidacylus (Anomura : Paguridae) from the northern coast of São Paulo, Brazil

The hermit crab Paguras brevidactylus (Crustacea: Anomura: Paguridea) from the infralittoral area of Anchieta Island, Ubatuba, was characterized by population Structure (size, sex ratio, reproduction and recruitment) and growth. Animals were collected monthly during 1999 by SCUBA diving. A total of 1525 individuals was collected (633 males and 892 females), 695 of them were ovigerous females. Overall sex ratio was 0.7:1 in favour of females. The crabs showed a unimodal distribution with males significantly larger than females. Ovigerous females were collected during all months and in high percentages from 1.0 mm of shield length, demonstrating intense and Continuous reproduction. The longevity was approximately 24 months for males and 18 for females, which showed larger growth rate and reached sexual maturity earlier (two months) than males. The low number of males in this Population may be due to the longer life span. Moreover, the sexual dimorphism favours males during the intra- and interspecific fights by shell, food, reproduction and territory. Females demonstrated a short life cycle and intense reproduction.

Maturation and growth curves of Macrobrachium Carcinus (Linnaeus) (Crustacea, Decapoda, Palaemonidae) from Ribeira de Iguape River, southern Brazil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Genetic associations between accumulated productivity, and reproductive and growth traits in Nelore cattle

The total meat yield in a beef cattle production cycle is economically very important and depends on the number of calves born per year or birth season, being directly related to reproductive potential. Accumulated Productivity (ACP) is an index that expresses a cow's capacity to give birth regularly at a young age and to wean animals of greater body weight. Using data from cattle participating in the "Program for Genetic Improvement of the Nelore Breed" (PMGRN - Nelore Brasil), bi-trait analyses were performed using the Restricted Maximum Likelihood method based on an ACP animal model and the following traits: age at first calving (AFC), female body weight adjusted for 365 (BW365) and 450 (BW450) days of age, and male scrotal circumference adjusted for 365 (SC365), 450 (SC450), 550 (SC550) and 730 (SC730) days of age. Median estimated ACP heritability was 0.19 and the genetic correlations with AFC, BW365, BW450, SC365, SC450, SC550 and SC730 were 0.33, 0.70, 0.65, 0.08, 0.07, 0.12 and 0.16, respectively. ACP increased and AFC decreased over time, revealing that the selection criteria genetically improved these traits. Selection based on ACP appears to favor the heaviest females at 365 and 450 days of age who showed better reproductive performance as regards AFC. Scrotal circumference was not genetically associated with ACP. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Neuronal vacuolation and spongiform lesions in young Rottweiler dogs

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

PHOSPHORUS EFFECTS IN THE NUTRITION and GROWTH of DEVELOPING MANGO PLANTS

The objective was to study the effects of phosphorous (P) fertilization on nutritional and developmental aspects of growing mango plants. The mango plants were evaluated by soil chemical analyses, leaf chemical analyses, biological examination of plant growth, and the starting point of fruit production. Having this in view, an experiment was set up on 2 January 2003, at Flora, a farm in Uberlandia, state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. The soil was a clayish Oxisol. The doses at planting were: D0 = zero, D1 = 40, D2 = 100, D3 = 200, and D4 = 300 g of P2O5 plant-1. These doses at the beginning of the second year were multiplied by 1.5 and at the beginning of the third year by 2.0 and applied to the plants. The fertilizer used in this experiment was triple superphosphate (44% of P2O5.). During August of 2004, 2005, and 2006, soil samples were taken at a depth of 20 cm in between the plant rows. Leaf samples were taken during August of 2004 and 2005 to determine macro- and micronutrient contents in the leaves. Plant stem diameter was measured during January of 2004 and 2005. Plant height and crown radius were measured during January of 2005 and fruit production in 2005 and 2006. Fertilizer applications increased the level of P in the soil but significantly influenced plant performance only after the second year. The effects of phosphorus on mango plants take place slowly leading to increments in plant stem diameter only at the third year. Fruit set was not influenced by phosphorous fertilization.

Auxin-producing bacteria isolated from the roots of Cattleya walkeriana, an endangered Brazilian orchid, and their role in acclimatization

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Genetic associations between carcass traits measured by real-time ultrasound and scrotal circumference and growth traits in Nelore cattle

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Genetic associations between flight speed and growth traits in Nellore cattle

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

First polymorphisms in JY-1 gene in cattle (Bos taurus indicus) and their association with sexual precocity and growth traits

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)