890 resultados para Nelson and Siegel model


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Taihu Lake is the third largest fresh water lake in China. With the fast economic development, abundant industrial and agricultural waste water has been discharged into Taihu Lake, causing the eutrophication of the water quality, which greatly affected the water utility. In the past decades, the treatment of Taihu Lake has witnessed limited success. Therefore, it is practically and theoretically significant to study the eutrophication of Taihu Lake. This research has focused on the issue of water quality including the characteristics of spatial and temporal distributions, and the rules of nutrient diffusion in the Taihu lake area. Based on the monitoring data, the basis distribution characteristics of water quality in Taihu Lake are analyzed. Comparing Taihu Lake with other Lakes shows that one important reason for Taihu eutrophication is the long period of water retention. A transporting and diffusing model of Taihu nutrient is developed by combining with the hydrodynamics model. Using the model, the concentration field of the total phosphorus (TP) and the influence of wind-driven current are numerically investigated, which leads to the conclusion that the flow field has a great influence on the spatial and temporal distributions of TP in Taihu Lake. Furthermore, the effect for improving the water quality by the project of water diversion from the Yangtze River to Taihu Lake was analyzed by simulation. The results demonstrate that short-term water diversion cannot improve the water quality of the heavily-polluted Meiliang Bay and the western bank areas of Taihu Lake.

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Salt water intrusion occurred frequently during dry season in Modaomen waterway of the Pearl River Estuary. With the development of region's economy and urbanization, the salt tides affect the region's water supply more and more seriously in recent years. Regulation and allocation of freshwater resources of the upper rivers of the estuary to suppress the salt tides is becoming important measures for ensuring the water supply security of the region in dry season. The observation data analysis showed that the flow value at the Wuzhou hydrometric station on the upper Xijiang river had a good correlation with the salinity in Modaomen estuary. Thus the flow rate of Wuzhou has been used as a control variable for suppression of salt tides in Modaomen estuary. However, the runoff at Wuzhou mainly comes from the discharge of Longtan reservoir on the upper reaches of Xijiang river and the runoff in the interval open valley between Longtan and Wuzhou sections. As the long distance and many tributaries as well as the large non-controlled watershed between this two sections, the reservoir water scheduling has a need for reasonable considering of interaction between the reservoir regulating discharge and the runoff process of the interval open watershed while the deployment of suppression flow at Wuzhou requires longer lasting time and high precision for the salt tide cycles. For this purpose, this study established a runoff model for Longtan - Wuzhou interval drainage area and by model calculations and observation data analysis, helped to understand the response patterns of the flow rate at Wuzhou to the water discharge of Longtan under the interval water basin runoff participating conditions. On this basis, further discussions were taken on prediction methods of Longtan reservoir discharge scheduling scheme for saline intrusion suppression and provided scientific and typical implementation programs for effective suppression flow process at the Wuzhou section.

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In this paper, we studied the reactions of both potassium ferricyanide and hexaammineruthenium(III) chloride at a 4-aminobenzoic acid (4-ABA) modified glassy carbon electrode (GCE) by scanning electrochemical microscopy (SECM) in different pH solutions. The surface of the modified electrode has carboxyl groups, the dissociation of which are strongly dependent upon the solution pH values. The rate constant kb of the oxidation of ferrocyanide on the modified electrode can be obtained by fitting the experimental tip current-distance (I-T-d) curves with the theoretical values. The surface pK(a) of the 4-ABA modified GCE was estimated from the plot of standard rate constant k(o) versus the solution pH and is equal to 3.2, which is in good agreement with the reported result. The SECM approach curves for Ru(NH3)(6)(3+) both on the bare and the modified electrodes show similar diffusion control processes. These results can be explained by the electrostatic interactions between the modified electrode surface and the model compounds with different charges. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science BN. All rights reserved.

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A numerical method to estimate temperature distribution during the cure of epoxy-terminated poly(phenylene ether ketone) (E-PEK)-based composite is suggested. The effect of the temperature distribution on the selection of cure cycle is evaluated using a suggested alternation criterion. The effect of varying heating rate and thickness on the temperature distribution, viscosity distribution and distribution of the extent of cure reaction are discussed based on the combination of the here-established temperature distribution model and the previously established curing kinetics model and chemorheological model. It is found that, for a thin composite (<=10mm) and low heating rate (<=2.5K/min), the effect of temperature distribution on cure cycle and on the processing window for pressure application can be neglected. Low heating rate is of benefit to reduce the temperature gradient. The processing window for pressure application becomes narrower with increasing thicknesses of composite sheets. The validity of the temperature distribution model and the modified processing window is evaluated through the characterization of mechanical and physical properties of E-PEK-based composite fabricated according to different temperature distribution conditions.

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Fractional energy losses of waves due to wave breaking when passing over a submerged bar are studied systematically using a modified numerical code that is based on the high-order Boussinesq-type equations. The model is first tested by the additional experimental data, and the model's capability of simulating the wave transformation over both gentle slope and steep slope is demonstrated. Then, the model's breaking index is replaced and tested. The new breaking index, which is optimized from the several breaking indices, is not sensitive to the spatial grid length and includes the bottom slopes. Numerical tests show that the modified model with the new breaking index is more stable and efficient for the shallow-water wave breaking. Finally, the modified model is used to study the fractional energy losses for the regular waves propagating and breaking over a submerged bar. Our results have revealed that how the nonlinearity and the dispersion of the incident waves as well as the dimensionless bar height (normalized by water depth) dominate the fractional energy losses. It is also found that the bar slope (limited to gentle slopes that less than 1:10) and the dimensionless bar length (normalized by incident wave length) have negligible effects on the fractional energy losses.

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A three-dimensional (3-D) coupled physical and biological model was used to investigate the physical processes and their influence on the ecosystem dynamics of the Bohai Sea of China. The physical processes include M-2 tide, time - varying wind forcing and river discharge. Wind records from I to 31 May in 1993 were selected to force the model. The biological model is based on a simple, nitrate and phosphate limited, lower trophic food web system. The simulated results showed that variation of residual currents forced by M, tide, river discharge and time-varying wind had great impact on the distribution of phytoplankton biomass in the Laizhou Bay. High phytoplankton biomass appeared in the upwelling region. Numerical experiments based on the barotropic model and baroclinic model with no wind and water discharge were also conducted. Differences in the results by the baroclinic model and the barotropic model were significant: more patches appeared in the baroclinic model comparing with the barotropic model. And in the baroclinic model, the subsurface maximum phytoplankton biomass patches formed in the stratified water.

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Stable carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios of single tissues or whole bodies were analyzed to establish trophic positions of main consumers living at the alpine meadow ecosystem in the Tibetan Plateau. The results demonstrated that delta C-13 and delta N-15 values of vertebrates showed great variations and ranged from -26.83 to -22.51 parts per thousand and from 2.33 to 8.44 parts per thousand, respectively. Plateau pika, root vole, plateau hare, infants of rodents and hatchlings of passerine bird species had the lowest delta C-13 and delta N-15 values. delta C-13 and delta N-15 values of omnivorous and insectivorous birds and amphibians showed intermediate. Carnivorous species, steppe polecat and Upland buzzard, and omnivorous Robin accentor and White wagtail possessed extremely higher VC and delta N-15 values. Omnivorous birds captured in earlier year had significantly less negative delta C-13 and greater delta N-15 values than those captured later. Based on steady angular enrichment between trophic levels, an "alpha and vector model" combing delta C-13 and delta N-15 values was introduced to reveal trophic positions, the results indicated that Tibetan sheep, Tibetan yak, plateau pika, root vole, plateau hare, infants of small rodents showed the lowest trophic positions (TP 1.81-2.38). While omnivorous and insectivorous birds, their hatchlings and amphibians showed intermediate trophic positions (TP 2.06-2.89), carnivorous species steppe polecat and Upland buzzard, migrant birds possessed extremely higher trophic positions (TP 2.89-3.05). The isotopic investigation of organisms and the introduced "alpha and vector model" successfully demonstrated the same trophic positions and diet prediction of consumers as nitrogen enrichment model at the alpine meadow ecosystem. Besides of this information, the "alpha and vector model" can also be incorporated into multiple isotope signatures to infer trophic relationships. This angular enrichment model has the potential to address basic ecological questions, such as trophic structure, trophic dynamics, and energy flow in other terrestrial ecosystems of properly handled. (C) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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We investigated the independent and combined effects of experimental warming and grazing on plant species diversity on the north-eastern Tibetan Plateau, a region highly vulnerable to ongoing climate and land use changes. Experimental warming caused a 26-36% decrease in species richness, a response that was generally dampened by experimental grazing. Higher species losses occurred at the drier sites where N was less available. Moreover, we observed an indirect effect of climate change on species richness as mediated by plant-plant interactions. Heat stress and warming-induced litter accumulation are potential explanations for the species' responses to experimental warming. This is the first reported experimental evidence that climate warming could cause dramatic declines in plant species diversity in high elevation ecosystems over short time frames and supports model predictions of species losses with anthropogenic climate change.

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In the principles-and-parameters model of language, the principle known as "free indexation'' plays an important part in determining the referential properties of elements such as anaphors and pronominals. This paper addresses two issues. (1) We investigate the combinatorics of free indexation. In particular, we show that free indexation must produce an exponential number of referentially distinct structures. (2) We introduce a compositional free indexation algorithm. We prove that the algorithm is "optimal.'' More precisely, by relating the compositional structure of the formulation to the combinatorial analysis, we show that the algorithm enumerates precisely all possible indexings, without duplicates.

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Lee M.H., Model-Based Reasoning: A Principled Approach for Software Engineering, Software - Concepts and Tools,19(4), pp179-189, 2000.

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Bradshaw, K. & Urquhart, C. (2005). Theory and practice in strategic planning for health information systems. In: D. Wainwright (Ed.), UK Academy for Information Systems 10th conference 2005, 22-24 March 2005 (CD-ROM). Newcastle upon Tyne: Northumbria University.

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Gatherer, D., and McEwan, N.R. (2003). Analysis of sequence periodicity in E. coli proteins: empirical investigation of the 'duplication and divergence' theory of protein evolution. Journal of Molecular Evolution 57, 149-158. RAE2008

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We propose that a simple, closed-form mathematical expression--the Wedge-Dipole mapping--provides a concise approximation to the full-field, two-dimensional topographic structure of macaque V1, V2, and V3. A single map function, which we term a map complex, acts as a simultaneous descriptor of all three areas. Quantitative estimation of the Wedge-Dipole parameters is provided via 2DG data of central-field V1 topography and a publicly available data set of full-field macaque V1 and V2 topography. Good quantitative agreement is obtained between the data and the model presented here. The increasing importance of fMRI-based brain imaging motivates the development of more sophisticated two-dimensional models of cortical visuotopy, in contrast to the one-dimensional approximations that have been in common use. One reason is that topography has traditionally supplied an important aspect of "ground truth", or validation, for brain imaging, suggesting that further development of high-resolution fMRI will be facilitated by this data analysis. In addition, several important insights into the nature of cortical topography follows from this work. The presence of anisotropy in cortical magnification factor is shown to follow mathematically from the shared boundary conditions at the V1-V2 and V2-V3 borders, and therefore may not causally follow from the existence of columnar systems in these areas, as is widely assumed. An application of the Wedge-Dipole model to localizing aspects of visual processing to specific cortical areas--extending previous work in correlating V1 cortical magnification factor to retinal anatomy or visual psychophysics data--is briefly discussed.

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The last 30 years have seen Fuzzy Logic (FL) emerging as a method either complementing or challenging stochastic methods as the traditional method of modelling uncertainty. But the circumstances under which FL or stochastic methods should be used are shrouded in disagreement, because the areas of application of statistical and FL methods are overlapping with differences in opinion as to when which method should be used. Lacking are practically relevant case studies comparing these two methods. This work compares stochastic and FL methods for the assessment of spare capacity on the example of pharmaceutical high purity water (HPW) utility systems. The goal of this study was to find the most appropriate method modelling uncertainty in industrial scale HPW systems. The results provide evidence which suggests that stochastic methods are superior to the methods of FL in simulating uncertainty in chemical plant utilities including HPW systems in typical cases whereby extreme events, for example peaks in demand, or day-to-day variation rather than average values are of interest. The average production output or other statistical measures may, for instance, be of interest in the assessment of workshops. Furthermore the results indicate that the stochastic model should be used only if found necessary by a deterministic simulation. Consequently, this thesis concludes that either deterministic or stochastic methods should be used to simulate uncertainty in chemical plant utility systems and by extension some process system because extreme events or the modelling of day-to-day variation are important in capacity extension projects. Other reasons supporting the suggestion that stochastic HPW models are preferred to FL HPW models include: 1. The computer code for stochastic models is typically less complex than a FL models, thus reducing code maintenance and validation issues. 2. In many respects FL models are similar to deterministic models. Thus the need for a FL model over a deterministic model is questionable in the case of industrial scale HPW systems as presented here (as well as other similar systems) since the latter requires simpler models. 3. A FL model may be difficult to "sell" to an end-user as its results represent "approximate reasoning" a definition of which is, however, lacking. 4. Stochastic models may be applied with some relatively minor modifications on other systems, whereas FL models may not. For instance, the stochastic HPW system could be used to model municipal drinking water systems, whereas the FL HPW model should or could not be used on such systems. This is because the FL and stochastic model philosophies of a HPW system are fundamentally different. The stochastic model sees schedule and volume uncertainties as random phenomena described by statistical distributions based on either estimated or historical data. The FL model, on the other hand, simulates schedule uncertainties based on estimated operator behaviour e.g. tiredness of the operators and their working schedule. But in a municipal drinking water distribution system the notion of "operator" breaks down. 5. Stochastic methods can account for uncertainties that are difficult to model with FL. The FL HPW system model does not account for dispensed volume uncertainty, as there appears to be no reasonable method to account for it with FL whereas the stochastic model includes volume uncertainty.

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A computer model has been developed to optimize the performance of a 50kWp photovoltaic system which supplies electrical energy to a dairy farm at Fota Island in Cork Harbour. Optimization of the system involves maximising the efficiency and increasing the performance and reliability of each hardware unit. The model accepts horizontal insolation, ambient temperature, wind speed, wind direction and load demand as inputs. An optimization program uses the computer model to simulate the optimum operating conditions. From this analysis, criteria are established which are used to improve the photovoltaic system operation. This thesis describes the model concepts, the model implementation and the model verification procedures used during development. It also describes the techniques which are used during system optimization. The software, which is written in FORTRAN, is structured in modular units to provide logical and efficient programming. These modular units may also be used in the modelling and optimization of other photovoltaic systems.