Communicating probabilistic information from climate model ensembles—lessons from numerical weather prediction

Climate model ensembles are widely heralded for their potential to quantify uncertainties and generate probabilistic climate projections. However, such technical improvements to modeling science will do little to deliver on their ultimate promise of improving climate policymaking and adaptation unless the insights they generate can be effectively communicated to decision makers. While some of these communicative challenges are unique to climate ensembles, others are common to hydrometeorological modeling more generally, and to the tensions arising between the imperatives for saliency, robustness, and richness in risk communication. The paper reviews emerging approaches to visualizing and communicating climate ensembles and compares them to the more established and thoroughly evaluated communication methods used in the numerical weather prediction domains of day-to-day weather forecasting (in particular probabilities of precipitation), hurricane and flood warning, and seasonal forecasting. This comparative analysis informs recommendations on best practice for climate modelers, as well as prompting some further thoughts on key research challenges to improve the future communication of climate change uncertainties.

Implications of model error for numerical climate prediction

Numerical climate models constitute the best available tools to tackle the problem of climate prediction. Two assumptions lie at the heart of their suitability: (1) a climate attractor exists, and (2) the numerical climate model's attractor lies on the actual climate attractor, or at least on the projection of the climate attractor on the model's phase space. In this contribution, the Lorenz '63 system is used both as a prototype system and as an imperfect model to investigate the implications of the second assumption. By comparing results drawn from the Lorenz '63 system and from numerical weather and climate models, the implications of using imperfect models for the prediction of weather and climate are discussed. It is shown that the imperfect model's orbit and the system's orbit are essentially different, purely due to model error and not to sensitivity to initial conditions. Furthermore, if a model is a perfect model, then the attractor, reconstructed by sampling a collection of initialised model orbits (forecast orbits), will be invariant to forecast lead time. This conclusion provides an alternative method for the assessment of climate models.

Impacts of increasing the aerosol complexity in the Met Office global numerical weather prediction model.

The inclusion of the direct and indirect radiative effects of aerosols in high-resolution global numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is being increasingly recognised as important for the improved accuracy of short-range weather forecasts. In this study the impacts of increasing the aerosol complexity in the global NWP configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) are investigated. A hierarchy of aerosol representations are evaluated including three-dimensional monthly mean speciated aerosol climatologies, fully prognostic aerosols modelled using the CLASSIC aerosol scheme and finally, initialised aerosols using assimilated aerosol fields from the GEMS project. The prognostic aerosol schemes are better able to predict the temporal and spatial variation of atmospheric aerosol optical depth, which is particularly important in cases of large sporadic aerosol events such as large dust storms or forest fires. Including the direct effect of aerosols improves model biases in outgoing long-wave radiation over West Africa due to a better representation of dust. However, uncertainties in dust optical properties propagate to its direct effect and the subsequent model response. Inclusion of the indirect aerosol effects improves surface radiation biases at the North Slope of Alaska ARM site due to lower cloud amounts in high-latitude clean-air regions. This leads to improved temperature and height forecasts in this region. Impacts on the global mean model precipitation and large-scale circulation fields were found to be generally small in the short-range forecasts. However, the indirect aerosol effect leads to a strengthening of the low-level monsoon flow over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal and an increase in precipitation over Southeast Asia. Regional impacts on the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) are also presented with the large dust loading in the aerosol climatology enhancing of the heat low over West Africa and weakening the AEJ. This study highlights the importance of including a more realistic treatment of aerosol–cloud interactions in global NWP models and the potential for improved global environmental prediction systems through the incorporation of more complex aerosol schemes.

The impact of a thermodynamic sea-ice module in the COSMO numerical weather prediction model on simulations for the Laptev Sea, Siberian Arctic

Previous versions of the Consortium for Small-scale Modelling (COSMO) numerical weather prediction model have used a constant sea-ice surface temperature, but observations show a high degree of variability on sub-daily timescales. To account for this, we have implemented a thermodynamic sea-ice module in COSMO and performed simulations at a resolution of 15 km and 5 km for the Laptev Sea area in April 2008. Temporal and spatial variability of surface and 2-m air temperature are verified by four automatic weather stations deployed along the edge of the western New Siberian polynya during the Transdrift XIII-2 expedition and by surface temperature charts derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data. A remarkable agreement between the new model results and these observations demonstrates that the implemented sea-ice module can be applied for short-range simulations. Prescribing the polynya areas daily, our COSMO simulations provide a high-resolution and high-quality atmospheric data set for the Laptev Sea for the period 14-30 April 2008. Based on this data set, we derive a mean total sea-ice production rate of 0.53 km3/day for all Laptev Sea polynyas under the assumption that the polynyas are ice-free and a rate of 0.30 km3/day if a 10-cm-thin ice layer is assumed. Our results indicate that ice production in Laptev Sea polynyas has been overestimated in previous studies.

Understanding advances in the simulation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in a numerical weather prediction model.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of intraseasonal variability in the Trop- ics. It can be characterised as a planetary-scale coupling between the atmospheric circulation and organised deep convection that propagates east through the equatorial Indo-Pacific region. The MJO interacts with weather and climate systems on a near-global scale and is a crucial source of predictability for weather forecasts on medium to seasonal timescales. Despite its global signifi- cance, accurately representing the MJO in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate models remains a challenge. This thesis focuses on the representation of the MJO in the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), a state-of-the-art NWP model. Recent modifications to the model physics in Cycle 32r3 (Cy32r3) of the IFS led to ad- vances in the simulation of the MJO; for the first time the observed amplitude of the MJO was maintained throughout the integration period. A set of hindcast experiments, which differ only in their formulation of convection, have been performed between May 2008 and April 2009 to asses the sensitivity of MJO simulation in the IFS to the Cy32r3 convective parameterization. Unique to this thesis is the attribution of the advances in MJO simulation in Cy32r3 to the mod- ified convective parameterization, specifically, the relative-humidity-dependent formulation for or- ganised deep entrainment. Increasing the sensitivity of the deep convection scheme to environmen- tal moisture is shown to modify the relationship between precipitation and moisture in the model. Through dry-air entrainment, convective plumes ascending in low-humidity environments terminate lower in the atmosphere. As a result, there is an increase in the occurrence of cumulus congestus, which acts to moisten the mid-troposphere. Due to the modified precipitation-moisture relationship more moisture is able to build up which effectively preconditions the tropical atmosphere for the transition to deep convection. Results from this thesis suggest that a tropospheric moisture control on convection is key to simulating the interaction between the physics and large-scale circulation associated with the MJO.

Numerical solution of the eXtended Pom-Pom model for viscoelastic free surface flows

In this paper we present a finite difference method for solving two-dimensional viscoelastic unsteady free surface flows governed by the single equation version of the eXtended Pom-Pom (XPP) model. The momentum equations are solved by a projection method which uncouples the velocity and pressure fields. We are interested in low Reynolds number flows and, to enhance the stability of the numerical method, an implicit technique for computing the pressure condition on the free surface is employed. This strategy is invoked to solve the governing equations within a Marker-and-Cell type approach while simultaneously calculating the correct normal stress condition on the free surface. The numerical code is validated by performing mesh refinement on a two-dimensional channel flow. Numerical results include an investigation of the influence of the parameters of the XPP equation on the extrudate swelling ratio and the simulation of the Barus effect for XPP fluids. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Numerical Solution of the Upper-Convected Maxwell Model for Three-Dimensional Free Surface Flows

This work presents a finite difference technique for simulating three-dimensional free surface flows governed by the Upper-Convected Maxwell (UCM) constitutive equation. A Marker-and-Cell approach is employed to represent the fluid free surface and formulations for calculating the non-Newtonian stress tensor on solid boundaries are developed. The complete free surface stress conditions are employed. The momentum equation is solved by an implicit technique while the UCM constitutive equation is integrated by the explicit Euler method. The resulting equations are solved by the finite difference method on a 3D-staggered grid. By using an exact solution for fully developed flow inside a pipe, validation and convergence results are provided. Numerical results include the simulation of the transient extrudate swell and the comparison between jet buckling of UCM and Newtonian fluids.

Numerical simulation of drop impact and jet buckling problems using the eXtended Pom-Pom model

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Numerical solution of the eXtended Pom-Pom model for viscoelastic free surface flows

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Determination of the numerical parameters of a continuous damage model for the structural analysis of clay brick masonry

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

NUMERICAL STUDY OF A PERTURBED EINSTEIN-DESITTER COSMOLOGICAL MODEL

Given the ever-increasing scale of structures discovered in the universe, we solve Einstein's equations numerically, under simplifying assumptions, to examine how this lack of uniformity affects the metric of Einstein-de Sitter cosmology. The results confirm the qualitative conclusion of Barrow, that a large density contrast is compatible with much smaller metric perturbations. The contribution of this peculiar gravity to the redshift might complicate studies of peculiar motions of galaxies, although it appears that the distortion is small for nearby clusters.

Numerical solution of the FENE-CR model in complex flows

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A Numerical Study of the FENE-CR Model Applied to a Jet Flow Problem

The FENE-CR model is investigated through a numerical algorithm to simulate the time-dependent moving free surface flow produced by a jet impinging on a flat surface. The objective is to demonstrate that by increasing the extensibility parameter L, the numerical solutions converge to the solutions obtained with the Oldroyd-B model. The governing equations are solved by an established free surface flow solver based on the finite difference and marker-and-cell methods. Numerical predictions of the extensional viscosity obtained with several values of the parameter L are presented. The results show that if the extensibility parameter L is sufficiently large then the extensional viscosities obtained with the FENE-CR model approximate the corresponding Oldroyd-B viscosity. Moreover, the flow from a jet impinging on a flat surface is simulated with various values of the extensibility parameter L and the fluid flow visualizations display convergence to the Oldroyd-B jet flow results.

NUMERICAL AND ANALYTICAL VERIFICATION OF A MULTISCALE COMPUTATIONAL MODEL FOR IMPACT PROBLEMS IN HETEROGENEOUS VISCOELASTIC MATERIALS WITH EVOLVING DAMAGE

Composites are engineered materials that take advantage of the particular properties of each of its two or more constituents. They are designed to be stronger, lighter and to last longer which can lead to the creation of safer protection gear, more fuel efficient transportation methods and more affordable materials, among other examples. This thesis proposes a numerical and analytical verification of an in-house developed multiscale model for predicting the mechanical behavior of composite materials with various configurations subjected to impact loading. This verification is done by comparing the results obtained with analytical and numerical solutions with the results found when using the model. The model takes into account the heterogeneity of the materials that can only be noticed at smaller length scales, based on the fundamental structural properties of each of the composite’s constituents. This model can potentially reduce or eliminate the need of costly and time consuming experiments that are necessary for material characterization since it relies strictly upon the fundamental structural properties of each of the composite’s constituents. The results from simulations using the multiscale model were compared against results from direct simulations using over-killed meshes, which considered all heterogeneities explicitly in the global scale, indicating that the model is an accurate and fast tool to model composites under impact loads. Advisor: David H. Allen

Numerical simulation of drop impact and jet buckling problems using the eXtended Pom-Pom model

This work presents numerical simulations of two fluid flow problems involving moving free surfaces: the impacting drop and fluid jet buckling. The viscoelastic model used in these simulations is the eXtended Pom-Pom (XPP) model. To validate the code, numerical predictions of the drop impact problem for Newtonian and Oldroyd-B fluids are presented and compared with other methods. In particular, a benchmark on numerical simulations for a XPP drop impacting on a rigid plate is performed for a wide range of the relevant parameters. Finally, to provide an additional application of free surface flows of XPP fluids, the viscous jet buckling problem is simulated and discussed. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.