Robust regression in biological assay: application to the evaluation of alternative experimental techniques.

Robust Huber type regression and testing of linear hypotheses are adapted to statistical analysis of parallel line and slope ratio assays. They are applied in the evaluation of results of several experiments carried out in order to compare and validate alternatives to animal experimentation based on embryo and cell cultures. Computational procedures necessary for the application of robust methods of analysis used the conversational statistical package ROBSYS. Special commands for the analysis of parallel line and slope ratio assays have been added to ROBSYS.

Adiponectin and C-reactive protein are positively associated with microalbuminuria in an adult Caucasian population

Objective: Microalbuminuria (MAU) is a marker of early kidney injury and cardiovascular risk. We assessed the association of MAU with plasma adiponectin, leptin and hsCRP, as inflammatory markers, accounting for hypertension, diabetes and obesity. Design and methods: Population based, cross-sectional study in Caucasian subjects aged 35 to 75 years in Lausanne, Switzerland. MAU, measured on spot morning urine, was used either as a continuous (MAU) or dichotomized variable (MA defined as MAU >2.5 and >3.5 mg/mmol creatinine in men and women, respectively). Results: The 2955 women (age 53.3 ± 10.7, mean ± SD years) had mean body mass index (BMI) 24.9 ± 4.5 kg/m. The 2479 men (age 53.1 ± 10.8 years) had mean BMI 27.0 ± 3.9 kg/m². Median hsCRP was 1.3 and 1.3 mg/L, median adiponectin 6.2 and 10.6 mg/mL in men and women, respectively. MA prevalence was 4.9% in women and 9.8% in men. In multivariate regression analysis adjusting for potential confounders (age, sex, hypertension, diabetes, eGFR, BMI, percent fat mass, insulin and smoking), log-transformed MAU was positively associated with hsCRP (P <0.001) and adiponectin (P = 0.002), but not with leptin. The association of adiponectin with MAU was stronger in subjects with low hsCRP, and vice versa (P interaction <0.001). Conclusion: Adiponectin and hsCRP are significant positive determinants of MAU, independently of diabetes, hypertension and fat mass. A negative interaction between hsCRP and adiponectin was found for their effect on MAU. Whether hyperadiponectinemia represents an adequate protective response to vascular stress or has negative causal impact on the development of MAU should be assessed in further studies.

Assessment of recent HIV-1 infection by a line immunoassay for HIV-1/2 confirmation.

BACKGROUND: Knowledge of the number of recent HIV infections is important for epidemiologic surveillance. Over the past decade approaches have been developed to estimate this number by testing HIV-seropositive specimens with assays that discriminate the lower concentration and avidity of HIV antibodies in early infection. We have investigated whether this "recency" information can also be gained from an HIV confirmatory assay. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The ability of a line immunoassay (INNO-LIA HIV I/II Score, Innogenetics) to distinguish recent from older HIV-1 infection was evaluated in comparison with the Calypte HIV-1 BED Incidence enzyme immunoassay (BED-EIA). Both tests were conducted prospectively in all HIV infections newly diagnosed in Switzerland from July 2005 to June 2006. Clinical and laboratory information indicative of recent or older infection was obtained from physicians at the time of HIV diagnosis and used as the reference standard. BED-EIA and various recency algorithms utilizing the antibody reaction to INNO-LIA's five HIV-1 antigen bands were evaluated by logistic regression analysis. A total of 765 HIV-1 infections, 748 (97.8%) with complete test results, were newly diagnosed during the study. A negative or indeterminate HIV antibody assay at diagnosis, symptoms of primary HIV infection, or a negative HIV test during the past 12 mo classified 195 infections (26.1%) as recent (< or = 12 mo). Symptoms of CDC stages B or C classified 161 infections as older (21.5%), and 392 patients with no symptoms remained unclassified. BED-EIA ruled 65% of the 195 recent infections as recent and 80% of the 161 older infections as older. Two INNO-LIA algorithms showed 50% and 40% sensitivity combined with 95% and 99% specificity, respectively. Estimation of recent infection in the entire study population, based on actual results of the three tests and adjusted for a test's sensitivity and specificity, yielded 37% for BED-EIA compared to 35% and 33% for the two INNO-LIA algorithms. Window-based estimation with BED-EIA yielded 41% (95% confidence interval 36%-46%). CONCLUSIONS: Recency information can be extracted from INNO-LIA-based confirmatory testing at no additional costs. This method should improve epidemiologic surveillance in countries that routinely use INNO-LIA for HIV confirmation.

Negative control of quorum sensing by RpoN (sigma54) in Pseudomonas aeruginosa PAO1.

In Pseudomonas aeruginosa PAO1, the expression of several virulence factors such as elastase, rhamnolipids, and hydrogen cyanide depends on quorum-sensing regulation, which involves the lasRI and rhlRI systems controlled by N-(3-oxododecanoyl)-L-homoserine lactone and N-butyryl-L-homoserine lactone, respectively, as signal molecules. In rpoN mutants lacking the transcription factor sigma(54), the expression of the lasR and lasI genes was elevated at low cell densities, whereas expression of the rhlR and rhlI genes was markedly enhanced throughout growth by comparison with the wild type and the complemented mutant strains. As a consequence, the rpoN mutants had elevated levels of both signal molecules and overexpressed the biosynthetic genes for elastase, rhamnolipids, and hydrogen cyanide. The quorum-sensing regulatory protein QscR was not involved in the negative control exerted by RpoN. By contrast, in an rpoN mutant, the expression of the gacA global regulatory gene was significantly increased during the entire growth cycle, whereas another global regulatory gene, vfr, was downregulated at high cell densities. In conclusion, it appears that GacA levels play an important role, probably indirectly, in the RpoN-dependent modulation of the quorum-sensing machinery of P. aeruginosa.

Evaluation of the synergistic potential of vancomycin combined with other antimicrobial agents against methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus and coagulase-negative Staphylococcus spp strains

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and coagulase-negative Staphylococcus spp (CNS) are the most common pathogens that cause serious long term infections in patients. Despite the existence of new antimicrobial agents, such as linezolid, vancomycin (VAN) remains the standard therapy for the treatment of infections caused by these multidrug-resistant strains. However, the use of VAN has been associated with a high frequency of therapeutic failures in some clinical scenarios, mainly with decreasing concentration of VAN. This work aims to evaluate the synergic potential of VAN plus sulfamethoxazole/trimethoprim (SXT), VAN plus rifampin (RIF) and VAN plus imipenem (IPM) in sub-minimum inhibitory concentrations against 22 clinical strains of MRSA and CNS. The checkerboard method showed synergism of VAN/RIF and VAN/SXT against two and three of the 22 strains, respectively. The combination of VAN with IPM showed synergistic effects against 21 out of 22 strains by the E-test method. Four strains were analyzed by the time-kill curve method and synergistic activity was observed with VAN/SXT, VAN/RIF and especially VAN/IPM in sub-inhibitory concentrations. It would be interesting to determine if synergy occurs in vivo. Evidence of in vivo synergy could lead to a reduction of the standard VAN dosage or treatment time.

Lack of evidence for KRAS oncogenic mutations in triple-negative breast cancer.

BACKGROUND Mutational analysis of the KRAS gene has recently been established as a complementary in vitro diagnostic tool for the identification of patients with colorectal cancer who will not benefit from anti-epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) therapies. Assessment of the mutation status of KRAS might also be of potential relevance in other EGFR-overexpressing tumors, such as those occurring in breast cancer. Although KRAS is mutated in only a minor fraction of breast tumors (5%), about 60% of the basal-like subtype express EGFR and, therefore could be targeted by EGFR inhibitors. We aimed to study the mutation frequency of KRAS in that subtype of breast tumors to provide a molecular basis for the evaluation of anti-EGFR therapies. METHODS Total, genomic DNA was obtained from a group of 35 formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded, triple-negative breast tumor samples. Among these, 77.1% (27/35) were defined as basal-like by immunostaining specific for the established surrogate markers cytokeratin (CK) 5/6 and/or EGFR. KRAS mutational status was determined in the purified DNA samples by Real Time (RT)-PCR using primers specific for the detection of wild-type KRAS or the following seven oncogenic somatic mutations: Gly12Ala, Gly12Asp, Gly12Arg, Gly12Cys, Gly12Ser, Gly12Val and Gly13Asp. RESULTS We found no evidence of KRAS oncogenic mutations in all analyzed tumors. CONCLUSIONS This study indicates that KRAS mutations are very infrequent in triple-negative breast tumors and that EGFR inhibitors may be of potential benefit in the treatment of basal-like breast tumors, which overexpress EGFR in about 60% of all cases.

Use of accuracy profile for the validation of a gas chromatography-negative chemical ionization tandem mass spectrometry method: quantification of ethyl glucuronide in hair

Introduction: Ethylglucuronide (EtG) is a direct and specific metabolite of ethanol. Its determination in hair is of increasing interest for detecting and monitoring alcohol abuse. The quantification of EtG in hair requires analytical methods showing highest sensitivity and specificity. We present a fully validated method based on gas chromatography-negative chemical ionization tandem mass spectrometry (GC-NCI-MS/MS). The method was validated using French Society of Pharmaceutical Sciences and Techniques (SFSTP) guidelines which are based on the determination of the total measurement error and accuracy profiles. Methods: Washed and powdered hair is extracted in water using an ultrasonic incubation. After purification by Oasis MAX solid phase extraction, the derivatized EtG is detected and quantified by GC-NCI-MS/MS method in the selected reaction monitoring mode. The transitions m/z 347 / 163 and m/z 347 / 119 were used for the quantification and identification of EtG. Four quality controls (QC) prepared with hair samples taken post mortem from 2 subjects with a known history of alcoholism were used. A proficiency test with 7 participating laboratories was first run to validate the EtG concentration of each QC sample. Considering the results of this test, these samples were then used as internal controls for validation of the method. Results: The mean EtG concentrations measured in the 4 QC were 259.4, 130.4, 40.8, and 8.4 pg/mg hair. Method validation has shown linearity between 8.4 and 259.4 pg/mg hair (r2 > 0.999). The lower limit of quantification was set up at 8.4 pg/mg. Repeatability and intermediate precision were found less than 13.2% for all concentrations tested. Conclusion: The method proved to be suitable for routine analysis of EtG in hair. GC-NCI-MS/MS method was then successfully applied to the analysis of EtG in hair samples collected from different alcohol consumers.

Evaluation of rapid techniques for the detection of mycobacteria in sputum with scanty bacilli or clinically evident, smear negative cases of pulmonary and extra-pulmonary tuberculosis

The objective of the current study was to compare two rapid methods, the BBL Mycobacteria Growth Indicator Tube (MGIT TM) and Biotec FASTPlaque TB TM (FPTB) assays, with the conventional Löwenstein-Jensen (LJ) media assay to diagnose mycobacterial infections from paucibacillary clinical specimens. For evaluation of the clinical utility of the BBL MGIT TM and FPTB assays, respiratory tract specimens (n = 208), with scanty bacilli or clinically evident, smear negative cases and non-respiratory tract specimens (n = 119) were analyzed and the performance of each assay was compared with LJ media. MGIT and FPTB demonstrated a greater sensitivity (95.92% and 87.68%), specificity (94.59% and 98.78%), positive predictive value (94.91% and 99.16%) and negative predictive value (96.56% and 90.92%), respectively, compared to LJ culture for both respiratory tract and non-respiratory tract specimens. However, the FPTB assay was unable to detect nontuberculous mycobacteria and few Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex cases from paucibacillary clinical specimens. It is likely that the analytical sensitivity of FPTB is moderately low and may not be useful for the direct detection of tuberculosis in paucibacillary specimens. The current study concluded that MGIT was a dependable, highly efficient system for recovery of M. tuberculosis complexes and nontuberculous mycobacteria from both respiratory and non-respiratory tract specimens in combination with LJ media.

Pre-hospital antibiotic treatment and mortality caused by invasive meningococcal disease, adjusting for indication bias.

Background: Mortality from invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) has remained stable over the last thirty years and it is unclear whether pre-hospital antibiotherapy actually produces a decrease in this mortality. Our aim was to examine whether pre-hospital oral antibiotherapy reduces mortality from IMD, adjusting for indication bias. Methods: A retrospective analysis was made of clinical reports of all patients (n = 848) diagnosed with IMD from 1995 to 2000 in Andalusia and the Canary Islands, Spain, and of the relationship between the use of pre-hospital oral antibiotherapy and mortality. Indication bias was controlled for by the propensity score technique, and a multivariate analysis was performed to determine the probability of each patient receiving antibiotics, according to the symptoms identified before admission. Data on in-hospital death, use of antibiotics and demographic variables were collected. A logistic regression analysis was then carried out, using death as the dependent variable, and prehospital antibiotic use, age, time from onset of symptoms to parenteral antibiotics and the propensity score as independent variables. Results: Data were recorded on 848 patients, 49 (5.72%) of whom died. Of the total number of patients, 226 had received oral antibiotics before admission, mainly betalactams during the previous 48 hours. After adjusting the association between the use of antibiotics and death for age, time between onset of symptoms and in-hospital antibiotic treatment, pre-hospital oral antibiotherapy remained a significant protective factor (Odds Ratio for death 0.37, 95% confidence interval 0.15–0.93). Conclusion: Pre-hospital oral antibiotherapy appears to reduce IMD mortality.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2014.

BACKGROUND: From most recent available data, we projected cancer mortality statistics for 2014, for the European Union (EU) and its six more populous countries. Specific attention was given to pancreatic cancer, the only major neoplasm showing unfavorable trends in both sexes. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Population and death certification data from stomach, colorectum, pancreas, lung, breast, uterus, prostate, leukemias and total cancers were obtained from the World Health Organisation database and Eurostat. Figures were derived for the EU, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the UK. Projected 2014 numbers of deaths by age group were obtained by linear regression on estimated numbers of deaths over the most recent time period identified by a joinpoint regression model. RESULTS: In the EU in 2014, 1,323,600 deaths from cancer are predicted (742,500 men and 581,100 women), corresponding to standardized death rates of 138.1/100,000 men and 84.7/100,000 women, falling by 7% and 5%, respectively, since 2009. In men, predicted rates for the three major cancers (lung, colorectum and prostate cancer) are lower than in 2009, falling by 8%, 4% and 10%, respectively. In women, breast and colorectal cancers had favorable trends (-9% and -7%), but female lung cancer rates are predicted to rise 8%. Pancreatic cancer is the only neoplasm with a negative outlook in both sexes. Only in the young (25-49 years), EU trends become more favorable in men, while women keep registering slight predicted rises. CONCLUSIONS: Cancer mortality predictions for 2014 confirm the overall favorable cancer mortality trend in the EU, translating to an overall 26% fall in men since its peak in 1988, and 20% in women, and the avoidance of over 250,000 deaths in 2014 compared with the peak rate. Notable exceptions are female lung cancer and pancreatic cancer in both sexes.

Novel methicillin-resistant coagulase-negative Staphylococcus clone isolated from patients with haematological diseases at the Blood Bank Centre of Amazon, Brazil

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus remains a severe public health problem worldwide. This research was intended to identify the presence of methicillin-resistant coagulase-negative staphylococci clones and their staphylococcal cassette chromosome mec (SCCmec)-type isolate from patients with haematologic diseases presenting bacterial infections who were treated at the Blood Bank of the state of Amazonas in Brazil. Phenotypic and genotypic tests, such as SCCmec types and multilocus sequence typing (MLST), were developed to detect and characterise methicillin-resistant isolates. A total of 26 Gram-positive bacteria were isolated, such as: Staphylococcus epidermidis (8/27), Staphylococcus intermedius (4/27) and Staphylococcus aureus (4/27). Ten methicillin-resistant staphylococcal isolates were identified. MLST revealed three different sequence types: S. aureus ST243, S. epidermidis ST2 and a new clone of S. epidermidis, ST365. These findings reinforce the potential of dissemination presented by multi-resistant Staphylococcus and they suggest the introduction of monitoring actions to reduce the spread of pathogenic clonal lineages of S. aureus and S. epidermidis to avoid hospital infections and mortality risks.

Development and validation of a risk score predicting substantial weight gain over 5 years in middle-aged European men and women.

BACKGROUND Identifying individuals at high risk of excess weight gain may help targeting prevention efforts at those at risk of various metabolic diseases associated with weight gain. Our aim was to develop a risk score to identify these individuals and validate it in an external population. METHODS We used lifestyle and nutritional data from 53°758 individuals followed for a median of 5.4 years from six centers of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) to develop a risk score to predict substantial weight gain (SWG) for the next 5 years (derivation sample). Assuming linear weight gain, SWG was defined as gaining ≥ 10% of baseline weight during follow-up. Proportional hazards models were used to identify significant predictors of SWG separately by EPIC center. Regression coefficients of predictors were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Pooled coefficients were used to assign weights to each predictor. The risk score was calculated as a linear combination of the predictors. External validity of the score was evaluated in nine other centers of the EPIC study (validation sample). RESULTS Our final model included age, sex, baseline weight, level of education, baseline smoking, sports activity, alcohol use, and intake of six food groups. The model's discriminatory ability measured by the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.64 (95% CI = 0.63-0.65) in the derivation sample and 0.57 (95% CI = 0.56-0.58) in the validation sample, with variation between centers. Positive and negative predictive values for the optimal cut-off value of ≥ 200 points were 9% and 96%, respectively. CONCLUSION The present risk score confidently excluded a large proportion of individuals from being at any appreciable risk to develop SWG within the next 5 years. Future studies, however, may attempt to further refine the positive prediction of the score.

Uncertainty Quantification Of A Semi-Supervised Support Vector Regression Reservoir Model

Uncertainty quantification of petroleum reservoir models is one of the present challenges, which is usually approached with a wide range of geostatistical tools linked with statistical optimisation or/and inference algorithms. Recent advances in machine learning offer a novel approach to model spatial distribution of petrophysical properties in complex reservoirs alternative to geostatistics. The approach is based of semisupervised learning, which handles both ?labelled? observed data and ?unlabelled? data, which have no measured value but describe prior knowledge and other relevant data in forms of manifolds in the input space where the modelled property is continuous. Proposed semi-supervised Support Vector Regression (SVR) model has demonstrated its capability to represent realistic geological features and describe stochastic variability and non-uniqueness of spatial properties. On the other hand, it is able to capture and preserve key spatial dependencies such as connectivity of high permeability geo-bodies, which is often difficult in contemporary petroleum reservoir studies. Semi-supervised SVR as a data driven algorithm is designed to integrate various kind of conditioning information and learn dependences from it. The semi-supervised SVR model is able to balance signal/noise levels and control the prior belief in available data. In this work, stochastic semi-supervised SVR geomodel is integrated into Bayesian framework to quantify uncertainty of reservoir production with multiple models fitted to past dynamic observations (production history). Multiple history matched models are obtained using stochastic sampling and/or MCMC-based inference algorithms, which evaluate posterior probability distribution. Uncertainty of the model is described by posterior probability of the model parameters that represent key geological properties: spatial correlation size, continuity strength, smoothness/variability of spatial property distribution. The developed approach is illustrated with a fluvial reservoir case. The resulting probabilistic production forecasts are described by uncertainty envelopes. The paper compares the performance of the models with different combinations of unknown parameters and discusses sensitivity issues.

Cross-validation of bioelectrical impedance analysis for the assessment of body composition in a representative sample of 6- to 13-year-old children.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: (1) To cross-validate tetra- (4-BIA) and octopolar (8-BIA) bioelectrical impedance analysis vs dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) for the assessment of total and appendicular body composition and (2) to evaluate the accuracy of external 4-BIA algorithms for the prediction of total body composition, in a representative sample of Swiss children. SUBJECTS/METHODS: A representative sample of 333 Swiss children aged 6-13 years from the Kinder-Sportstudie (KISS) (ISRCTN15360785). Whole-body fat-free mass (FFM) and appendicular lean tissue mass were measured with DXA. Body resistance (R) was measured at 50 kHz with 4-BIA and segmental body resistance at 5, 50, 250 and 500 kHz with 8-BIA. The resistance index (RI) was calculated as height(2)/R. Selection of predictors (gender, age, weight, RI4 and RI8) for BIA algorithms was performed using bootstrapped stepwise linear regression on 1000 samples. We calculated 95% confidence intervals (CI) of regression coefficients and measures of model fit using bootstrap analysis. Limits of agreement were used as measures of interchangeability of BIA with DXA. RESULTS: 8-BIA was more accurate than 4-BIA for the assessment of FFM (root mean square error (RMSE)=0.90 (95% CI 0.82-0.98) vs 1.12 kg (1.01-1.24); limits of agreement 1.80 to -1.80 kg vs 2.24 to -2.24 kg). 8-BIA also gave accurate estimates of appendicular body composition, with RMSE < or = 0.10 kg for arms and < or = 0.24 kg for legs. All external 4-BIA algorithms performed poorly with substantial negative proportional bias (r> or = 0.48, P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In a representative sample of young Swiss children (1) 8-BIA was superior to 4-BIA for the prediction of FFM, (2) external 4-BIA algorithms gave biased predictions of FFM and (3) 8-BIA was an accurate predictor of segmental body composition.