Zonal playfield attributes – A stochastic approach to subjective passing affordances in football

Introduction: According to the ecological view, coordination establishes byvirtueof social context. Affordances thought of as situational opportunities to interact are assumed to represent the guiding principles underlying decisions involved in interpersonal coordination. It’s generally agreed that affordances are not an objective part of the (social) environment but that they depend on the constructive perception of involved subjects. Theory and empirical data hold that cognitive operations enabling domain-specific efficacy beliefs are involved in the perception of affordances. The aim of the present study was to test the effects of these cognitive concepts in the subjective construction of local affordances and their influence on decision making in football. Methods: 71 football players (M = 24.3 years, SD = 3.3, 21 % women) from different divisions participated in the study. Participants were presented scenarios of offensive game situations. They were asked to take the perspective of the person on the ball and to indicate where they would pass the ball from within each situation. The participants stated their decisions in two conditions with different game score (1:0 vs. 0:1). The playing fields of all scenarios were then divided into ten zones. For each zone, participants were asked to rate their confidence in being able to pass the ball there (self-efficacy), the likelihood of the group staying in ball possession if the ball were passed into the zone (group-efficacy I), the likelihood of the ball being covered safely by a team member (pass control / group-efficacy II), and whether a pass would establish a better initial position to attack the opponents’ goal (offensive convenience). Answers were reported on visual analog scales ranging from 1 to 10. Data were analyzed specifying general linear models for binomially distributed data (Mplus). Maximum likelihood with non-normality robust standard errors was chosen to estimate parameters. Results: Analyses showed that zone- and domain-specific efficacy beliefs significantly affected passing decisions. Because of collinearity with self-efficacy and group-efficacy I, group-efficacy II was excluded from the models to ease interpretation of the results. Generally, zones with high values in the subjective ratings had a higher probability to be chosen as passing destination (βself-efficacy = 0.133, p < .001, OR = 1.142; βgroup-efficacy I = 0.128, p < .001, OR = 1.137; βoffensive convenience = 0.057, p < .01, OR = 1.059). There were, however, characteristic differences in the two score conditions. While group-efficacy I was the only significant predictor in condition 1 (βgroup-efficacy I = 0.379, p < .001), only self-efficacy and offensive convenience contributed to passing decisions in condition 2 (βself-efficacy = 0.135, p < .01; βoffensive convenience = 0.120, p < .001). Discussion: The results indicate that subjectively distinct attributes projected to playfield zones affect passing decisions. The study proposes a probabilistic alternative to Lewin’s (1951) hodological and deterministic field theory and enables insight into how dimensions of the psychological landscape afford passing behavior. Being part of a team, this psychological landscape is not only constituted by probabilities that refer to the potential and consequences of individual behavior, but also to that of the group system of which individuals are part of. Hence, in regulating action decisions in group settings, informers are extended to aspects referring to the group-level. References: Lewin, K. (1951). In D. Cartwright (Ed.), Field theory in social sciences: Selected theoretical papers by Kurt Lewin. New York: Harper & Brothers.

Environmental correlates of species rank − abundance distributions in global drylands

Theoretical models predict lognormal species abundance distributions (SADs) in stable and productive environments, with log-series SADs in less stable, dispersal driven communities. We studied patterns of relative species abundances of perennial vascular plants in global dryland communities to: (i) assess the influence of climatic and soil characteristics on the observed SADs, (ii) infer how environmental variability influences relative abundances, and (iii) evaluate how colonisation dynamics and environmental filters shape abundance distributions. We fitted lognormal and log-series SADs to 91 sites containing at least 15 species of perennial vascular plants. The dependence of species relative abundances on soil and climate variables was assessed using general linear models. Irrespective of habitat type and latitude, the majority of the SADs (70.3%) were best described by a lognormal distribution. Lognormal SADs were associated with low annual precipitation, higher aridity, high soil carbon content, and higher variability of climate variables and soil nitrate. Our results do not corroborate models predicting the prevalence of log-series SADs in dryland communities. As lognormal SADs were particularly associated with sites with drier conditions and a higher environmental variability, we reject models linking lognormality to environmental stability and high productivity conditions. Instead our results point to the prevalence of lognormal SADs in heterogeneous environments, allowing for more evenly distributed plant communities, or in stressful ecosystems, which are generally shaped by strong habitat filters and limited colonisation. This suggests that drylands may be resilient to environmental changes because the many species with intermediate relative abundances could take over ecosystem functioning if the environment becomes suboptimal for dominant species.

Body fat distribution and serum lipids in children and adolescents

Previous studies of normal children have linked body fat but not body fat distribution (BFD), to higher blood pressures, lipids, and insulin resistance (Berenson et al., 1988) BFD is a well-established risk factor for cardiovascular disease in adults (Björntorp, 1988). This study investigates the relation of BFD and serum lipids at baseline in children from Project HeartBeat!, a study of the growth and development of cardiovascular risk factors in 678 children in three cohorts measured initially at ages 8, 11, and 14 years. Initially, two of four indices of BFD were significantly related to the lipids: ratio of upper to lower body skinfolds (ln US:LS) and conicity (C Index). A factor analysis reduced the information in the serum lipids to two vectors: (1) total cholesterol + LDL-cholesterol and (2) HDL-cholesterol − triglycerides, which together accounted for 85% of the lipid variation. Using each serum lipid and vector as separate dependent variables, linear and quadratic regression models were constructed to examine the predictive ability of the two BFD variables, controlling for total body fat, gender, ethnicity (Black, non-Black) and maturation. Linear models provided an acceptable fit. Percent body fat (%BF) was a significant predictor in each and every lipid model, independent of age, maturation, or ethnicity (p ≤ 0.05). No BFD variable entered the equation for total or LDL-cholesterol, although there was a significant maturity by BFD interaction for LDL (ln US:LS was a significant predictor in more mature individuals). Both %BF and BFD (by way of Conicity) were significant predictors of HDL-cholesterol and triglycerides (p ≤ 0.01). All models were statistically significant at a high level (p ≤ 0.01), but adjusted R 2's for all models were low (0.05–0.15). Body fat distribution is a significant predictor of lipids in normal children, but secondarily to %BF, and for LDL-cholesterol in particular, the relation is dependent on maturity status. ^

Trauma care capacity and performance in Texas: Regional comparisons

Objective. The study reviewed one year of Texas hospital discharge data and Trauma Registry data for the 22 trauma services regions in Texas to identify regional variations in capacity, process of care and clinical outcomes for trauma patients, and analyze the statistical associations among capacity, process of care, and outcomes. ^ Methods. Cross sectional study design covering one year of state-wide Texas data. Indicators of trauma capacity, trauma care processes, and clinical outcomes were defined and data were collected on each indicator. Descriptive analyses were conducted of regional variations in trauma capacity, process of care, and clinical outcomes at all trauma centers, at Level I and II trauma centers and at Level III and IV trauma centers. Multilevel regression models were performed to test the relations among trauma capacity, process of care, and outcome measures at all trauma centers, at Level I and II trauma centers and at Level III and IV trauma centers while controlling for confounders such as age, gender, race/ethnicity, injury severity, level of trauma centers and urbanization. ^ Results. Significant regional variation was found among the 22 trauma services regions across Texas in trauma capacity, process of care, and clinical outcomes. The regional trauma bed rate, the average staffed bed per 100,000 varied significantly by trauma service region. Pre-hospital trauma care processes were significantly variable by region---EMS time, transfer time, and triage. Clinical outcomes including mortality, hospital and intensive care unit length of stay, and hospital charges also varied significantly by region. In multilevel regression analysis, the average trauma bed rate was significantly related to trauma care processes including ambulance delivery time, transfer time, and triage after controlling for age, gender, race/ethnicity, injury severity, level of trauma centers, and urbanization at all trauma centers. Transfer time only among processes of care was significant with the average trauma bed rate by region at Level III and IV. Also trauma mortality only among outcomes measures was significantly associated with the average trauma bed rate by region at all trauma centers. Hospital charges only among outcomes measures were statistically related to trauma bed rate at Level I and II trauma centers. The effect of confounders on processes and outcomes such as age, gender, race/ethnicity, injury severity, and urbanization was found significantly variable by level of trauma centers. ^ Conclusions. Regional variation in trauma capacity, process, and outcomes in Texas was extensive. Trauma capacity, age, gender, race/ethnicity, injury severity, level of trauma centers and urbanization were significantly associated with trauma process and clinical outcomes depending on level of trauma centers. ^ Key words: regionalized trauma systems, trauma capacity, pre-hospital trauma care, process, trauma outcomes, trauma performance, evaluation measures, regional variations ^

An epidemiologic evaluation of a worksite based intervention

The healthcare industry spends billions on worker injury and employee turnover. Hospitals and healthcare settings have one of the highest rates of lost days due to injuries. The occupational hazards for healthcare workers can be classified into biological, chemical, ergonomic, physical, organizational, and psychosocial. Therefore, interventions addressing a range of occupational health risks are needed to prevent injuries and reduce turnover and reduce costs. ^ The Sacred Vocation Program (SVP) seeks to change the content of work, i.e., the meaningfulness of work, to improve work environments. The SVP intervenes at both the individual and organizational level. First the SVP attempts to connect healthcare workers with meaning from their work through a series of 5 self-discovery group sessions. In a sixth session the graduates take an oath recommitting them to do their work as a vocation. Once motivated to connect with meaning in their work, a representative employee group meets in a second set of five meetings. This representative group suggests organizational changes to create a culture that supports employees in their calling. The employees present their plan in the twelfth session to management beginning a new phase in the existing dialogue between employees and management. ^ The SVP was implemented in a large Dallas hospital (almost 1000 licensed beds). The Baylor University Medical Center (BUMC) Pastoral Care department invited front-line caregivers (primarily Patient Care Assistants, PCAs, or Patient Care Technicians, PCTs) to participate in the SVP. Participants completed SVP questionnaires at the beginning and following SVP implementation. Following implementation, employer records were collected on injury, absence and turnover to further evaluate the program's effectiveness on metrics that are meaningful to managers in assessing organizational performance. This provided an opportunity to perform an epidemiological evaluation of the intervention using the two sources of information: employee self-reports and employer administrative data. ^ The ability to evaluate the effectiveness of the SVP on program outcomes could be limited by the strength of the measures used. An ordinal CFA performed on baseline SVP questionnaire measurements examined the construct validity and reliability of the SVP scales. Scales whose item-factor structure was confirmed in ordinal CFA were evaluated for their psychometric properties (i.e., reliability, mean, ceiling and floor effects). CFA supported the construct validity of six of the proposed scales: blocks to spirituality, meaning at work, work satisfaction, affective commitment, collaborative communication, and MHI-5. Five of the six scales confirmed had acceptable measures of reliability (all but MHI-5 had α>0.7). All six scales had a high percentage (>30%) of the scores at the ceiling. These findings supported the use of these items in the evaluation of change although strong ceiling effects may hinder discerning change. ^ Next, the confirmed SVP scales were used to evaluate whether the intervention improved program constructs. To evaluate the SVP a one group pretest-posttest design compared participants’ self-reports before and after the intervention. It was hypothesized that measurements of reduced blocks to spirituality (α = 0.76), meaning at work (α = 0.86), collaborative communication (α = 0.67) and SVP job tasks (α = 0.97) would improve following SVP implementation. The SVP job tasks scale was included even though it was not included in the ordinal CFA analysis due to a limited sample and high inter-item correlation. Changes in scaled measurements were assessed using multilevel linear regression methods. All post-intervention measurements increased (increases <0.28 points) but only reduced blocks to spirituality was statistically significant (0.22 points on a scale from 1 to 7, p < 0.05) after adjustment for covariates. Intensity of the intervention (stratifying on high participation units) strengthened effects; but were not statistically significant. The findings provide preliminary support for the hypothesis that meaning in work can be improved and, importantly, lend greater credence to any observed improvements in the outcomes. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)^

Functional data analysis approaches for genotype-phenotype association studies from next-generation sequencing

Next-generation DNA sequencing platforms can effectively detect the entire spectrum of genomic variation and is emerging to be a major tool for systematic exploration of the universe of variants and interactions in the entire genome. However, the data produced by next-generation sequencing technologies will suffer from three basic problems: sequence errors, assembly errors, and missing data. Current statistical methods for genetic analysis are well suited for detecting the association of common variants, but are less suitable to rare variants. This raises great challenge for sequence-based genetic studies of complex diseases.^ This research dissertation utilized genome continuum model as a general principle, and stochastic calculus and functional data analysis as tools for developing novel and powerful statistical methods for next generation of association studies of both qualitative and quantitative traits in the context of sequencing data, which finally lead to shifting the paradigm of association analysis from the current locus-by-locus analysis to collectively analyzing genome regions.^ In this project, the functional principal component (FPC) methods coupled with high-dimensional data reduction techniques will be used to develop novel and powerful methods for testing the associations of the entire spectrum of genetic variation within a segment of genome or a gene regardless of whether the variants are common or rare.^ The classical quantitative genetics suffer from high type I error rates and low power for rare variants. To overcome these limitations for resequencing data, this project used functional linear models with scalar response to develop statistics for identifying quantitative trait loci (QTLs) for both common and rare variants. To illustrate their applications, the functional linear models were applied to five quantitative traits in Framingham heart studies. ^ This project proposed a novel concept of gene-gene co-association in which a gene or a genomic region is taken as a unit of association analysis and used stochastic calculus to develop a unified framework for testing the association of multiple genes or genomic regions for both common and rare alleles. The proposed methods were applied to gene-gene co-association analysis of psoriasis in two independent GWAS datasets which led to discovery of networks significantly associated with psoriasis.^

The role of youth sports in public health

Study 1: Schools provide a range of opportunities for youth to be active, however, over the past decade, these opportunities have been declining. Sports teams are a promising venue to promote physical activity yet limited research has examined the gender an ethnic differences in sport participation. The purpose of this study is to examine trends in sport participation from 1991-2009 among US high school students. Secondly, we examined the association between gender and ethnicity with sports over time. This serial cross-sectional study used surveillance data from the Youth Risk Behavior Survey, a probability based sample weighted to represent gender and race/ethnic subpopulations of US high school students. The findings of this paper reveal persistent gender and ethnic disparities for sports participation among US youth. Since sports teams may provide a substantial source of physical activity, greater efforts should be undertaken to increase the participation of girls, especially minorities, in sports teams. ^ Study 2: Sports team participation is congruent with teaching and supporting healthy eating, yet limited research has examined the association between sports participation and dietary behaviors. This study aims to determine the association between youth sports participation and dietary behaviors among elementary-aged children. Significant dose-response associations were observed between number of sports teams and consumption of most fruits and vegetables. The likelihood of eating fruit for boys increased with the number of sports teams (1 team: OR=1.89; 3 teams: OR=3.44, p<0.001) and the likelihood of consuming green vegetables for girls was higher with the number of sports teams (1 team: OR=1.50; 3 teams: OR=2.39; p<0.001). For boys, the odds of consuming fruit-flavored drinks was higher ( p=0.019) and the odds of drinking soda was lower (p=0.018) with participation in increasing number of sports teams whereas for girls, sports participation was positively associated with diet soda consumption (p=0.006). ^ Study 3: Parents and peers have been shown to have a strong influence over the physical activity, dietary, and sedentary behaviors of youth. Youth sports teams have the potential to offer physical activity, displace sedentary behaviors, and promote a healthy diet. The purpose of this study is to assess how peer and parental support for physical activity and healthy eating, coupled with sport participation, is associated obesity related risk factors including diet and sedentary behaviors. A secondary analysis of data from the School Physical Activity and Nutrition study, a state-representative survey, was conducted. Eighth (n=3,931) and 11th (n=2,785) grade students were categorized into four groups based upon the level of peer and parental support derived from a three item scale and their participation in sports (sports/high support, sports/low support, no sports/high support, no sports/low support). Linear models were conducted to determine the difference in means between these groups for the following outcome variables: previous day fruit and vegetable intake, scores for an unhealthy and healthy food index, and hours spent watching television, playing video games, and working on a computer. Eighth graders had significantly greater levels of parental support for healthy eating and physical activity compared to 11th grade. Both 8 th and 11th graders in the sport/high support for healthy eating from peers and parents scored significantly higher on the healthy food index than other groups. Eighth and 11th graders in the sport/high support for physical activity from peers participated in fewer hours of sedentary behaviors than any other group (p ≤ 0.032). Although it is thought that sport participation may offer opportunities to support a healthy diet and displace sedentary time by offering providing physical activity, our study found that parental and peer support for activity and healthy eating may further attenuate this association. Parents and peer support should be an important target when developing strategies to improve healthy diets and reduce sedentary time among youth, especially in the context of youth sports. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)^

Regression with autocorrelated data: A study of time trend of global infant mortality rate

The infant mortality rate (IMR) is considered to be one of the most important indices of a country's well-being. Countries around the world and other health organizations like the World Health Organization are dedicating their resources, knowledge and energy to reduce the infant mortality rates. The well-known Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4), whose aim is to archive a two thirds reduction of the under-five mortality rate between 1990 and 2015, is an example of the commitment. ^ In this study our goal is to model the trends of IMR between the 1950s to 2010s for selected countries. We would like to know how the IMR is changing overtime and how it differs across countries. ^ IMR data collected over time forms a time series. The repeated observations of IMR time series are not statistically independent. So in modeling the trend of IMR, it is necessary to account for these correlations. We proposed to use the generalized least squares method in general linear models setting to deal with the variance-covariance structure in our model. In order to estimate the variance-covariance matrix, we referred to the time-series models, especially the autoregressive and moving average models. Furthermore, we will compared results from general linear model with correlation structure to that from ordinary least squares method without taking into account the correlation structure to check how significantly the estimates change.^

Ground beetle (Carabidae) abundance data from north-eastern Australian rainforest, between June 2008 - January 2010, using pitfall traps

Understanding how the environment influences patterns of diversity is vital for effective conservation management, especially in a changing global climate. While assemblage structure and species richness patterns are often correlated with current environmental factors, historical influences may also be considerable, especially for taxa with poor dispersal abilities. Mountain-top regions throughout tropical rainforests can act as important refugia for taxa characterised by low dispersal capacities such as flightless ground beetles (Carabidae), an ecologically significant predatory group. We surveyed flightless ground beetles along elevational gradients in five different subregions within the Australian Wet Tropics World Heritage Area to investigate (1) whether the diversity and composition of flightless ground beetles are elevationally stratified, and, if so, (2) what environmental factors (other than elevation per se) are associated with these patterns. Generalised linear models and model averaging techniques were used to relate patterns of diversity to environmental factors. Unlike most taxonomic groups, flightless ground beetles increased in species richness and abundance with elevation. Additionally, each subregion consisted of distinct assemblages containing a high level of regional endemic species. Species richness was most strongly positively associated with the historical climatic conditions and negatively associated with severity of recent disturbance (treefalls) and current climatic conditions. Assemblage composition was associated with latitude and current and historical climatic conditions. Our results suggest that distributional patterns of flightless ground beetles are not only likely to be associated with factors that change with elevation (current climatic conditions), but also factors that are independent of elevation (recent disturbance and historical climatic conditions). Variation in historical vegetation stability explained both species richness and assemblage composition patterns, probably reflecting the significance of upland refugia at a geographic time scale. These findings are important for conservation management as upland habitats are under threat from climate change.

Modelización de la fenología del haba cv. Alameda

La predicción de la fenología del haba es un paso crítico para optimizar el manejo de los cultivos, así como para el desarrollo de modelos de cultivos. Este artículo examina la respuesta fenológica del cultivo de haba (Vicia faba L.) a diversos regímenes térmicos y fotoperíodicos evaluada mediante modelos lineales. Se realizaron diecisiete fechas de siembra durante tres años en Lugo, España (43°04’ N; 7°30’ W; altitud 480 m) en las que se hicieron observaciones fenológicas. El tiempo desde emergencia a floración se describe satisfactoriamente mediante un modelo fototérmico. Las tasas de desarrollo de siembra a emergencia, floración hasta la primera vaina y primera vaina hasta madurez fisiológica fueron modeladas en forma satisfactoria, utilizando solamente la temperatura como variable independiente. Los valores de temperaturas basales variaron entre 2,09 y 4,47°C, dependiendo del subperíodo fenológico. El fotoperíodo base resultó de 6,9 h mientras el fotoperíodo crítico fue de 16,2 h.

Secchi depth maps for the Baltic Sea, 2003-2012, with links to GeoTIFs

Secchi depth is a measure of water transparency. In the Baltic Sea region, Secchi depth maps are used to assess eutrophication and as input for habitat models. Due to their spatial and temporal coverage, satellite data would be the most suitable data source for such maps. But the Baltic Sea's optical properties are so different from the open ocean that globally calibrated standard models suffer from large errors. Regional predictive models that take the Baltic Sea's special optical properties into account are thus needed. This paper tests how accurately generalized linear models (GLMs) and generalized additive models (GAMs) with MODIS/Aqua and auxiliary data as inputs can predict Secchi depth at a regional scale. It uses cross-validation to test the prediction accuracy of hundreds of GAMs and GLMs with up to 5 input variables. A GAM with 3 input variables (chlorophyll a, remote sensing reflectance at 678 nm, and long-term mean salinity) made the most accurate predictions. Tested against field observations not used for model selection and calibration, the best model's mean absolute error (MAE) for daily predictions was 1.07 m (22%), more than 50% lower than for other publicly available Baltic Sea Secchi depth maps. The MAE for predicting monthly averages was 0.86 m (15%). Thus, the proposed model selection process was able to find a regional model with good prediction accuracy. It could be useful to find predictive models for environmental variables other than Secchi depth, using data from other satellite sensors, and for other regions where non-standard remote sensing models are needed for prediction and mapping. Annual and monthly mean Secchi depth maps for 2003-2012 come with this paper as Supplementary materials.

Responses of three tropical seagrass species to CO2 enrichment

Increased atmospheric carbon dioxide leads to ocean acidification and carbon dioxide (CO2) enrichment of seawater. Given the important ecological functions of seagrass meadows, understanding their responses to CO2 will be critical for the management of coastal ecosystems. This study examined the physiological responses of three tropical seagrasses to a range of seawater pCO2 levels in a laboratory. Cymodocea serrulata, Halodule uninervis and Thalassia hemprichii were exposed to four different pCO2 treatments (442-1204 µatm) for 2 weeks, approximating the range of end-of-century emission scenarios. Photosynthetic responses were quantified using optode-based oxygen flux measurements. Across all three species, net productivity and energetic surplus (PG:R) significantly increased with a rise in pCO2 (linear models, P < 0.05). Photosynthesis-irradiance curve-derived photosynthetic parameters-maximum photosynthetic rates (P max) and efficiency (alpha) also increased as pCO2 increased (linear models, P < 0.05). The response for productivity measures was similar across species, i.e. similar slopes in linear models. A decrease in compensation light requirement (Ec) with increasing pCO2 was evident in C. serrulata and H. uninervis, but not in T. hemprichii. Despite higher productivity with pCO2 enrichment, leaf growth rates in C. serrulata did not increase, while those in H. uninervis and T. hemprichii significantly increased with increasing pCO2 levels. While seagrasses can be carbon-limited and productivity can respond positively to CO2 enrichment, varying carbon allocation strategies amongst species suggest differential growth response between species. Thus, future increase in seawater CO2 concentration may lead to an overall increase in seagrass biomass and productivity, as well as community changes in seagrass meadows.

Juvenile–adult tree associations in a continental Mediterranean ecosystem: no evidence for sustained and general facilitation at increased aridity

Question: How do tree species identity, microhabitat and water availability affect inter- and intra-specific interactions between juvenile and adult woody plants? Location: Continental Mediterranean forests in Alto Tajo Natural Park, Guadalajara, Spain. Methods: A total of 2066 juveniles and adults of four co-occurring tree species were mapped in 17 plots. The frequency of juveniles at different microhabitats and water availability levels was analysed using log-linear models. We used nearest-neighbour contingency table analysis of spatial segregation and J-functions to describe the spatial patterns. Results: We found a complex spatial pattern that varied according to species identity and microhabitat. Recruitment was more frequent in gaps for Quercus ilex, while the other three species recruited preferentially under shrubs or trees depending on the water availability level. Juveniles were not spatially associated to conspecific adults, experiencing segregation from them inmany cases. Spatial associations, both positive and negative, were more common at higher water availability levels. Conclusions: Our results do not agree with expectations from the stressgradient hypothesis, suggesting that positive interactions do not increase in importance with increasing aridity in the study ecosystem. Regeneration patterns are species-specific and depend on microhabitat characteristics and dispersal strategies. In general, juveniles do not look for conspecific adult protection. This work contributes to the understanding of species co-existence, proving the importance of considering a multispecies approach at several plots to overcome limitations of simple pair-wise comparisons in a limited number of sites.

Predictor paramétrico de glucosa subcutánea

La diabetes mellitus es una enfermedad que se caracteriza por la nula o insuficiente producción de insulina, o la resistencia del organismo a la misma. La insulina es una hormona que ayuda a que la glucosa (por ejemplo la obtenida a partir de los alimentos ingeridos) llegue a los tejidos periféricos y al sistema nervioso para suministrar energía. Hoy en día la tecnología actual permite abordar el desarrollo del llamado “páncreas endocrino artificial”, que consta de un sensor continuo de glucosa subcutánea, una bomba de infusión subcutánea de insulina y un algoritmo de control en lazo cerrado que calcule la dosis de insulina requerida por el paciente en cada momento, según la medida de glucosa obtenida por el sensor y según unos objetivos. El mayor problema que presentan los sistemas de control en lazo cerrado son los retardos, el sensor de glucosa subcutánea mide la glucosa del líquido intersticial, que representa la que hubo en la sangre un tiempo atrás, por tanto, un cambio en los niveles de glucosa en la sangre, debidos por ejemplo, a una ingesta, tardaría un tiempo en ser detectado por el sensor. Además, una dosis de insulina suministrada al paciente, tarda un tiempo aproximado de 20-30 minutos para la llegar a la sangre. Para evitar trabajar en la medida que sea posible con estos retardos, se intenta predecir cuál será el nivel de glucosa en un futuro próximo, para ello se utilizara un predictor de glucosa subcutánea, con la información disponible de glucosa e insulina. El objetivo del proyecto es diseñar una metodología para estimar el valor futuro de los niveles de glucosa obtenida a partir de un sensor subcutáneo, basada en la identificación recursiva del sistema glucorregulatorio a través de modelos lineales y determinando un horizonte de predicción óptimo de trabajo y analizando la influencia de la insulina en los resultados de la predicción. Se ha implementado un predictor paramétrico basado en un modelo autorregresivo ARX que predice con mejor precisión y con menor RMSE que un predictor ZOH a un horizonte de predicción de treinta minutos. Utilizar información relativa a la insulina no tiene efecto en la predicción. El preprocesado, postprocesado y el tratamiento de la estabilidad tienen un efecto muy beneficioso en la predicción. Diabetes mellitusis a group of metabolic diseases in which a person has high blood sugar, either because the body does not produce enough insulin, or because cells do not respond to the insulin produced. The insulin is a hormone that helps the glucose to reach to outlying tissues and the nervous system to supply energy. Nowadays, the actual technology allows raising the development of the “artificial endocrine pancreas”. It involves a continuous glucose sensor, an insulin bump, and a full closed loop algorithm that calculate the insulin units required by patient at any time, according to the glucose measure obtained by the sensor and any target. The main problem of the full closed loop systems is the delays, the glucose sensor measures the glucose in the interstitial fluid that represents the glucose was in the blood some time ago. Because of this, a change in the glucose in blood would take some time to be detected by the sensor. In addition, insulin units administered by a patient take about 20-30 minutes to reach the blood stream. In order to avoid this effect, it will try to predict the glucose level in the near future. To do that, a subcutaneous glucose predictor is used to predict the future glucose with the information about insulin and glucose. The goal of the proyect is to design a method in order to estimate the future valor of glucose obtained by a subcutaneous sensor. It is based on the recursive identification of the regulatory system through the linear models, determining optimal prediction horizon and analyzing the influence of insuline on the prediction results. A parametric predictor based in ARX autoregressive model predicts with better precision and with lesser RMSE than ZOH predictor in a thirty minutes prediction horizon. Using the relative insulin information has no effect in the prediction. The preprocessing, the postprocessing and the stability treatment have many advantages in the prediction.

Experimental analysis of the breakage of a liquid bridge under microgravity conditions

The experimental results obtained in experiment “STACO” made on board the Spacelab D-2 are re-visited, with image-analysis tools not then available. The configuration consisted of a liquid bridge between two solid supporting discs. An expected breakage occurred during the experiment. The recorded images are analysed and the measured behaviour compared with the results of a three dimensional model of the liquid dynamics, obtaining a much better fit than with linear models