Multiplicity of data in trial reports and the reliability of meta-analyses: empirical study

Objectives To examine the extent of multiplicity of data in trial reports and to assess the impact of multiplicity on meta-analysis results. Design Empirical study on a cohort of Cochrane systematic reviews. Data sources All Cochrane systematic reviews published from issue 3 in 2006 to issue 2 in 2007 that presented a result as a standardised mean difference (SMD). We retrieved trial reports contributing to the first SMD result in each review, and downloaded review protocols. We used these SMDs to identify a specific outcome for each meta-analysis from its protocol. Review methods Reviews were eligible if SMD results were based on two to ten randomised trials and if protocols described the outcome. We excluded reviews if they only presented results of subgroup analyses. Based on review protocols and index outcomes, two observers independently extracted the data necessary to calculate SMDs from the original trial reports for any intervention group, time point, or outcome measure compatible with the protocol. From the extracted data, we used Monte Carlo simulations to calculate all possible SMDs for every meta-analysis. Results We identified 19 eligible meta-analyses (including 83 trials). Published review protocols often lacked information about which data to choose. Twenty-four (29%) trials reported data for multiple intervention groups, 30 (36%) reported data for multiple time points, and 29 (35%) reported the index outcome measured on multiple scales. In 18 meta-analyses, we found multiplicity of data in at least one trial report; the median difference between the smallest and largest SMD results within a meta-analysis was 0.40 standard deviation units (range 0.04 to 0.91). Conclusions Multiplicity of data can affect the findings of systematic reviews and meta-analyses. To reduce the risk of bias, reviews and meta-analyses should comply with prespecified protocols that clearly identify time points, intervention groups, and scales of interest.

Study of heavy-flavor quarks produced in association with top-quark pairs at s √ =7 TeV using the ATLAS detector

Using a sample of dilepton top-quark pair (tt ¯ ) candidate events, a study is performed of the production of top-quark pairs together with heavy-flavor (HF) quarks, the sum of tt ¯ +b+X and tt ¯ +c+X , collectively referred to as tt ¯  + HF . The data set used corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 4.7  fb −1 of proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 7 TeV recorded by the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. The presence of additional HF (b or c ) quarks in the tt ¯ sample is inferred by looking for events with at least three b -tagged jets, where two are attributed to the b quarks from the tt ¯ decays and the third to additional HF production. The dominant background to tt ¯  + HF in this sample is tt ¯ +jet events in which a light-flavor jet is misidentified as a heavy-flavor jet. To determine the heavy- and light-flavor content of the additional b -tagged jets, a fit to the vertex mass distribution of b -tagged jets in the sample is performed. The result of the fit shows that 79 ± 14 (stat) ± 22 (syst) of the 105 selected extra b -tagged jets originate from HF quarks, 3 standard deviations away from the hypothesis of zero tt ¯  + HF production. The result for extra HF production is quoted as a ratio (R HF ) of the cross section for tt ¯  + HF production to the cross section for tt ¯ production with at least one additional jet. Both cross sections are measured in a fiducial kinematic region within the ATLAS acceptance. R HF is measured to be [6.2±1.1(stat)±1.8(syst)]% for jets with p T >25  GeV and |η|<2.5 , in agreement with the expectations from Monte Carlo generators.

Potential Impact of Sexual Transmission on Ebola Virus Epidemiology: Sierra Leone as a Case Study.

BACKGROUND Sexual transmission of Ebola virus disease (EVD) 6 months after onset of symptoms has been recently documented, and Ebola virus RNA has been detected in semen of survivors up to 9 months after onset of symptoms. As countries affected by the 2013-2015 epidemic in West Africa, by far the largest to date, are declared free of Ebola virus disease (EVD), it remains unclear what threat is posed by rare sexual transmission events that could arise from survivors. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS We devised a compartmental mathematical model that includes sexual transmission from convalescent survivors: a SEICR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-convalescent-recovered) transmission model. We fitted the model to weekly incidence of EVD cases from the 2014-2015 epidemic in Sierra Leone. Sensitivity analyses and Monte Carlo simulations showed that a 0.1% per sex act transmission probability and a 3-month convalescent period (the two key unknown parameters of sexual transmission) create very few additional cases, but would extend the epidemic by 83 days [95% CI: 68-98 days] (p < 0.0001) on average. Strikingly, a 6-month convalescent period extended the average epidemic by 540 days (95% CI: 508-572 days), doubling the current length, despite an insignificant rise in the number of new cases generated. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE Our results show that reductions in the per sex act transmission probability via abstinence and condom use should reduce the number of sporadic sexual transmission events, but will not significantly reduce the epidemic size and may only minimally shorten the length of time the public health community must maintain response preparedness. While the number of infectious survivors is expected to greatly decline over the coming months, our results show that transmission events may still be expected for quite some time as each event results in a new potential cluster of non-sexual transmission. Precise measurement of the convalescent period is thus important for planning ongoing surveillance efforts.

Slope estimation in a parametric measurement error model: A simulation study

In regression analysis, covariate measurement error occurs in many applications. The error-prone covariates are often referred to as latent variables. In this proposed study, we extended the study of Chan et al. (2008) on recovering latent slope in a simple regression model to that in a multiple regression model. We presented an approach that applied the Monte Carlo method in the Bayesian framework to the parametric regression model with the measurement error in an explanatory variable. The proposed estimator applied the conditional expectation of latent slope given the observed outcome and surrogate variables in the multiple regression models. A simulation study was presented showing that the method produces estimator that is efficient in the multiple regression model, especially when the measurement error variance of surrogate variable is large.^

Calculus of the uncertainty in acoustic field measurements: comparative study between the uncertainty propagation method and the distribution propagation method

The new Spanish Regulation in Building Acoustic establishes values and limits for the different acoustic magnitudes whose fulfillment can be verify by means field measurements. In this sense, an essential aspect of a field measurement is to give the measured magnitude and the uncertainty associated to such a magnitude. In the calculus of the uncertainty it is very usual to follow the uncertainty propagation method as described in the Guide to the expression of Uncertainty in Measurements (GUM). Other option is the numerical calculus based on the distribution propagation method by means of Monte Carlo simulation. In fact, at this stage, it is possible to find several publications developing this last method by using different software programs. In the present work, we used Excel for the Monte Carlo simulation for the calculus of the uncertainty associated to the different magnitudes derived from the field measurements following ISO 140-4, 140-5 and 140-7. We compare the results with the ones obtained by the uncertainty propagation method. Although both methods give similar values, some small differences have been observed. Some arguments to explain such differences are the asymmetry of the probability distributions associated to the entry magnitudes,the overestimation of the uncertainty following the GUM

Uncertainty Analysis in New Seismic Hazard Study of Spain Aimed at the Revision of the Spanish Building Code.

In this paper we present a global overview of the recent study carried out in Spain for the new hazard map, which final goal is the revision of the Building Code in our country (NCSE-02). The study was carried our for a working group joining experts from The Instituto Geografico Nacional (IGN) and the Technical University of Madrid (UPM) , being the different phases of the work supervised by an expert Committee integrated by national experts from public institutions involved in subject of seismic hazard. The PSHA method (Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment) has been followed, quantifying the epistemic uncertainties through a logic tree and the aleatory ones linked to variability of parameters by means of probability density functions and Monte Carlo simulations. In a first phase, the inputs have been prepared, which essentially are: 1) a project catalogue update and homogenization at Mw 2) proposal of zoning models and source characterization 3) calibration of Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPE’s) with actual data and development of a local model with data collected in Spain for Mw < 5.5. In a second phase, a sensitivity analysis of the different input options on hazard results has been carried out in order to have criteria for defining the branches of the logic tree and their weights. Finally, the hazard estimation was done with the logic tree shown in figure 1, including nodes for quantifying uncertainties corresponding to: 1) method for estimation of hazard (zoning and zoneless); 2) zoning models, 3) GMPE combinations used and 4) regression method for estimation of source parameters. In addition, the aleatory uncertainties corresponding to the magnitude of the events, recurrence parameters and maximum magnitude for each zone have been also considered including probability density functions and Monte Carlo simulations The main conclusions of the study are presented here, together with the obtained results in terms of PGA and other spectral accelerations SA (T) for return periods of 475, 975 and 2475 years. The map of the coefficient of variation (COV) are also represented to give an idea of the zones where the dispersion among results are the highest and the zones where the results are robust.

Study of the effects of moving targets in SAR images for their detection.

Synthetic Aperture Radar’s (SAR) are systems designed in the early 50’s that are capable of obtaining images of the ground using electromagnetic signals. Thus, its activity is not interrupted by adverse meteorological conditions or during the night, as it occurs in optical systems. The name of the system comes from the creation of a synthetic aperture, larger than the real one, by moving the platform that carries the radar (typically a plane or a satellite). It provides the same resolution as a static radar equipped with a larger antenna. As it moves, the radar keeps emitting pulses every 1/PRF seconds —the PRF is the pulse repetition frequency—, whose echoes are stored and processed to obtain the image of the ground. To carry out this process, the algorithm needs to make the assumption that the targets in the illuminated scene are not moving. If that is the case, the algorithm is able to extract a focused image from the signal. However, if the targets are moving, they get unfocused and/or shifted from their position in the final image. There are applications in which it is especially useful to have information about moving targets (military, rescue tasks,studyoftheflowsofwater,surveillanceofmaritimeroutes...).Thisfeatureiscalled Ground Moving Target Indicator (GMTI). That is why the study and the development of techniques capable of detecting these targets and placing them correctly in the scene is convenient. In this document, some of the principal GMTI algorithms used in SAR systems are detailed. A simulator has been created to test the features of each implemented algorithm on a general situation with moving targets. Finally Monte Carlo tests have been performed, allowing us to extract conclusions and statistics of each algorithm.

Using the Cross-Entropy Method for Control Optimization: A Case Study of See-and-Avoid on Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

This paper presents an adaptation of the Cross-Entropy (CE) method to optimize fuzzy logic controllers. The CE is a recently developed optimization method based on a general Monte-Carlo approach to combinatorial and continuous multi-extremal optimization and importance sampling. This work shows the application of this optimization method to optimize the inputs gains, the location and size of the different membership functions' sets of each variable, as well as the weight of each rule from the rule's base of a fuzzy logic controller (FLC). The control system approach presented in this work was designed to command the orientation of an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) to modify its trajectory for avoiding collisions. An onboard looking forward camera was used to sense the environment of the UAV. The information extracted by the image processing algorithm is the only input of the fuzzy control approach to avoid the collision with a predefined object. Real tests with a quadrotor have been done to corroborate the improved behavior of the optimized controllers at different stages of the optimization process.

An empirical study of three stochastic approximation techniques applicable to sensitivity testing (U)

Photocopy.

On the microscopic mechanism of carbon gasification: A theoretical study

In this paper we report the results of ab initio calculations on the energetics and kinetics of oxygen-driven carbon gasification reactions using a small model cluster, with full characterisation of the stationary points on the reaction paths. We show that previously unconsidered pathways present significantly reduced barriers to reaction and must be considered as alternative viable paths. At least two electronic spin states of the model cluster must be considered for a complete description. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of potential models on the adsorption of ethane and ethylene on graphitized thermal carbon black. Study of two-dimensional critical temperature and isosteric heat versus loading

Adsorption of ethylene and ethane on graphitized thermal carbon black and in slit pores whose walls are composed of graphene layers is studied in detail to investigate the packing efficiency, the two-dimensional critical temperature, and the variation of the isosteric heat of adsorption with loading and temperature. Here we used a Monte Carlo simulation method with a grand canonical Monte Carlo ensemble. A number of two-center Lennard-Jones (LJ) potential models are investigated to study the impact of the choice of potential models in the description of adsorption behavior. We chose two 2C-LJ potential models in our investigation of the (i) UA-TraPPE-LJ model of Martin and Siepmann (J. Phys. Chem. B 1998,102, 25692577) for ethane and Wick et al. (J. Phys. Chem. B 2000,104, 8008-8016) for ethylene and (ii) AUA4-LJ model of Ungerer et al. (J. Chem. Phys. 2000,112, 5499-5510) for ethane and Bourasseau et al. (J. Chem. Phys. 2003, 118, 3020-3034) for ethylene. These models are used to study the adsorption of ethane and ethylene on graphitized thermal carbon black. It is found that the solid-fluid binary interaction parameter is a function of adsorbate and temperature, and the adsorption isotherms and heat of adsorption are well described by both the UA-TraPPE and AUA models, although the UA-TraPPE model performs slightly better. However, the local distributions predicted by these two models are slightly different. These two models are used to explore the two-dimensional condensation for the graphitized thermal carbon black, and these values are 110 K for ethylene and 120 K for ethane.

Adsorption of ethylene on graphitized thermal carbon black and in slit pores: A computer simulation study

In this paper, we studied vapor-liquid equilibria (VLE) and adsorption of ethylene on graphitized thermal carbon black and in slit pores whose walls are composed of graphene layers. Simple models of a one-center Lennard-Jones (LJ) potential and a two-center united atom (UA)-LJ potential are investigated to study the impact of the choice of potential models in the description of VLE and adsorption behavior. Here, we used a Monte Carlo simulation method with grand canonical Monte Carlo (GCMC) and Gibbs ensemble Monte Carlo ensembles. The one-center potential model cannot describe adequately the VLE over the practical range of temperature from the triple point to the critical point. On the other hand, the two-center potential model (Wick et al. J. Phys. Chem. B 2000, 104, 8008-8016) performs well in the description of VLE (saturated vapor and liquid densities and vapor pressure) over the wide range of temperature. This UA-LJ model is then used in the study of adsorption of ethylene on graphitized thermal carbon black and in slit pores. Agreement between the GCMC simulation results and the experimental data on graphitized thermal carbon black for moderate temperatures is excellent, demonstrating that the potential of the GCMC method and the proper choice of potential model are essential to investigate adsorption. For slit pores of various sizes, we have found that the behavior of ethylene exhibits a number of features that are not manifested in the study of spherical LJ particles. In particular, the singlet density distribution versus distance across the pore and the angle between the molecular axis and the z direction provide rich information about the way molecules arrange themselves when the pore width is varied. Such an arrangement has been found to be very sensitive to the pore width.

Adsorption of Lennard-Jones fluids in carbon slit pores of a finite length. A computer simulation study

The adsorption of simple Lennard-Jones fluids in a carbon slit pore of finite length was studied with Canonical Ensemble (NVT) and Gibbs Ensemble Monte Carlo Simulations (GEMC). The Canonical Ensemble was a collection of cubic simulation boxes in which a finite pore resides, while the Gibbs Ensemble was that of the pore space of the finite pore. Argon was used as a model for Lennard-Jones fluids, while the adsorbent was modelled as a finite carbon slit pore whose two walls were composed of three graphene layers with carbon atoms arranged in a hexagonal pattern. The Lennard-Jones (LJ) 12-6 potential model was used to compute the interaction energy between two fluid particles, and also between a fluid particle and a carbon atom. Argon adsorption isotherms were obtained at 87.3 K for pore widths of 1.0, 1.5 and 2.0 nm using both Canonical and Gibbs Ensembles. These results were compared with isotherms obtained with corresponding infinite pores using Grand Canonical Ensembles. The effects of the number of cycles necessary to reach equilibrium, the initial allocation of particles, the displacement step and the simulation box size were particularly investigated in the Monte Carlo simulation with Canonical Ensembles. Of these parameters, the displacement step had the most significant effect on the performance of the Monte Carlo simulation. The simulation box size was also important, especially at low pressures at which the size must be sufficiently large to have a statistically acceptable number of particles in the bulk phase. Finally, it was found that the Canonical Ensemble and the Gibbs Ensemble both yielded the same isotherm (within statistical error); however, the computation time for GEMC was shorter than that for canonical ensemble simulation. However, the latter method described the proper interface between the reservoir and the adsorbed phase (and hence the meniscus).

Comparative adsorption of spherical argon and flexible n-butane in carbon slit pores - a GCMC computer simulation study

In this paper we investigate the difference between the adsorption of spherical molecule argon (at 87.3 K) and the flexible normal butane (at an equivalent temperature of 150 K) in carbon slit pores. These temperatures are equivalent in the sense that they have the same relative distances between their respective triple points and critical points. Higher equivalent temperatures are also studied (122.67 K for argon and 303 K for n-butane) to investigate the effects of temperature on the 2D-transition in adsorbed density. The Grand Canonical Monte Carlo simulation is used to study the adsorption of these two model adsorbates. Beside the longer computation times involved in the computation of n-butane adsorption, n-butane exhibits many interesting behaviors such as: (i) the onset of adsorption occurs sooner (in terms of relative pressure), (ii) the hysteresis for 2D- and 3D-transitions is larger, (iii) liquid-solid transition is not possible, (iv) 2D-transition occurs for n-butane at 150 K while it does not happen for argon except for pores that accommodate two layers of molecules, (v) the maximum pore density is about four times less than that of argon and (vi) the sieving pore width is slightly larger than that for argon. Finally another feature obtained from the Grand Canonical Monte Carlo (GCMC) simulation is the configurational arrangement of molecules in pores. For spherical argon, the arrangement is rather well structured, while for n-butane the arrangement depends very much on the pore size. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The effects of energy sites on adsorption of Lennard–Jones fluids and phase transition in carbon slit pore of finite length a computer simulation study

A Monte Carlo simulation method is Used 10 study the effects of adsorption strength and topology of sites on adsorption of simple Lennard-Jones fluids in a carbon slit pore of finite length. Argon is used as a model adsorbate, while the adsorbent is modeled as a finite carbon slit pore whose two walls composed of three graphene layers with carbon atoms arranged in a hexagonal pattern. Impurities having well depth of interaction greater than that of carbon atom are assumed to be grafted onto the surface. Different topologies of the impurities; corner, centre, shelf and random topologies are studied. Adsorption isotherms of argon at 87.3 K are obtained for pore having widths of 1, 1.5 and 3 11111 using a Grand Canonical Monte Carlo simulation (GCMC). These results are compared with isotherms obtained for infinite pores. It is shown that the Surface heterogeneity affects significantly the overall adsorption isotherm, particularly the phase transition. Basically it shifts the onset of adsorption to lower pressure and the adsorption isotherms for these four impurity models are generally greater than that for finite pore. The positions of impurities on solid Surface also affect the shape of the adsorption isotherm and the phase transition. We have found that the impurities allocated at the centre of pore walls provide the greatest isotherm at low pressures. However when the pressure increases the impurities allocated along the edges of the graphene layers show the most significant effect on the adsorption isotherm. We have investigated the effect of surface heterogeneity on adsorption hysteresis loops of three models of impurity topology, it shows that the adsorption branches of these isotherms are different, while the desorption branches are quite close to each other. This suggests that the desorption branch is either the thermodynamic equilibrium branch or closer to it than the adsorption branch. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.