Development and assessment of a coupled crop-climate model

It is well established that crop production is inherently vulnerable to variations in the weather and climate. More recently the influence of vegetation on the state of the atmosphere has been recognized. The seasonal growth of crops can influence the atmosphere and have local impacts on the weather, which in turn affects the rate of seasonal crop growth and development. Considering the coupled nature of the crop-climate system, and the fact that a significant proportion of land is devoted to the cultivation of crops, important interactions may be missed when studying crops and the climate system in isolation, particularly in the context of land use and climate change. To represent the two-way interactions between seasonal crop growth and atmospheric variability, we integrate a crop model developed specifically to operate at large spatial scales (General Large Area Model for annual crops) into the land surface component of a global climate model (GCM; HadAM3). In the new coupled crop-climate model, the simulated environment (atmosphere and soil states) influences growth and development of the crop, while simultaneously the temporal variations in crop leaf area and height across its growing season alter the characteristics of the land surface that are important determinants of surface fluxes of heat and moisture, as well as other aspects of the land-surface hydrological cycle. The coupled model realistically simulates the seasonal growth of a summer annual crop in response to the GCM's simulated weather and climate. The model also reproduces the observed relationship between seasonal rainfall and crop yield. The integration of a large-scale single crop model into a GCM, as described here, represents a first step towards the development of fully coupled crop and climate models. Future development priorities and challenges related to coupling crop and climate models are discussed.

Vegetation dynamics in abandoned crop fields on a Mediterranean island: Development of succession model and estimation of disturbance thresholds

This case study on the Sifnos island, Greece, assesses the main factors controlling vegetation succession following crop abandonment and describes the vegetation dynamics of maquis and phrygana formations in relation to alternative theories of secondary succession. Field survey data were collected and analysed at community as well as species level. The results show that vegetation succession on abandoned crop fields is determined by the combined effects of grazing intensity, soil and geological characteristics and time. The analysis determines the quantitative grazing thresholds that modify the successional pathway. Light grazing leads to dominance by maquis vegetation while overgrazing leads to phryganic vegetation. The proposed model shows that vegetation succession following crop abandonment is a complex multi-factor process where the final or the stable stage of the process is not predefined but depends on the factors affecting succession. An example of the use of succession models and disturbance thresholds as a policy assessment tool is presented by evaluating the likely vegetation impacts of the recent reform of the Common Agricultural Policy on Sifnos island over a 20-30-year time horizon. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development of a fermentation system to model sessile bacterial populations in the human colon

A fermentation system was designed to model the human colonic microflora in vitro. The system provided a framework of mucin beads to encourage the adhesion of bacteria, which was encased within a dialysis membrane. The void between the beads was inoculated with faeces from human donors. Water and metabolites were removed from the fermentation by osmosis using a solution of polyethylene glycol (PEG). The system was concomitantly inoculated alongside a conventional single-stage chemostat. Three fermentations were carried out using inocula from three healthy human donors. Bacterial populations from the chemostat and biofilm system were enumerated using fluorescence in situ hybridization. The culture fluid was also analysed for its short-chain fatty acid (SCFA) content. A higher cell density was achieved in the biofilm fermentation system (taking into account the contribution made by the bead-associated bacteria) as compared with the chemostat, owing to the removal of water and metabolites. Evaluation of the bacterial populations revealed that the biofilm system was able to support two distinct groups of bacteria: bacteria growing in association with the mucin beads and planktonic bacteria in the culture fluid. Furthermore, distinct differences were observed between populations in the biofilm fermenter system and the chemostat, with the former supporting higher populations of clostridia and Escherichia coli. SCFA levels were lower in the biofilm system than in the chemostat, as in the former they were removed via the osmotic effect of the PEG. These experiments demonstrated the potential usefulness of the biofilm system for investigating the complexity of the human colonic microflora and the contribution made by sessile bacterial populations.

An instructional design model for constructivist learning

The emergent requirements for effective e-learning calls for a paradigm shift for instructional design. Constructivist theory and semiotics offer a sound underpinning to enable such revolutionary change by employing the concepts of Learning Objects. E-learning guidelines adopted by the industry have led successfully to the development of training materials. Inadequacy and deficiency of those methods for Higher Education have been identified in this paper. Based on the best practice in industry and our empirical research, we present an instructional design model with practical templates for constructivist learning.

Development and experimental identification of a biomechanical model of the trunk for functional electrical stimulation control in paraplegia

Objectives. Theoretic modeling and experimental studies suggest that functional electrical stimulation (FES) can improve trunk balance in spinal cord injured subjects. This can have a positive impact on daily life, increasing the volume of bimanual workspace, improving sitting posture, and wheelchair propulsion. A closed loop controller for the stimulation is desirable, as it can potentially decrease muscle fatigue and offer better rejection to disturbances. This paper proposes a biomechanical model of the human trunk, and a procedure for its identification, to be used for the future development of FES controllers. The advantage over previous models resides in the simplicity of the solution proposed, which makes it possible to identify the model just before a stimulation session ( taking into account the variability of the muscle response to the FES). Materials and Methods. The structure of the model is based on previous research on FES and muscle physiology. Some details could not be inferred from previous studies, and were determined from experimental data. Experiments with a paraplegic volunteer were conducted in order to measure the moments exerted by the trunk-passive tissues and artificially stimulated muscles. Data for model identification and validation also were collected. Results. Using the proposed structure and identification procedure, the model could adequately reproduce the moments exerted during the experiments. The study reveals that the stimulated trunk extensors can exert maximal moment when the trunk is in the upright position. In contrast, previous studies show that able-bodied subjects can exert maximal trunk extension when flexed forward. Conclusions. The proposed model and identification procedure are a successful first step toward the development of a model-based controller for trunk FES. The model also gives information on the trunk in unique conditions, normally not observable in able-bodied subjects (ie, subject only to extensor muscles contraction).

A hypoplastic model of skeletal muscle development displaying reduced foetal myoblast cell numbers, increased oxidative myofibres and improved specific tension capacity

The major component of skeletal muscle is the myofibre. Genetic intervention inducing over-enlargement of myofibres beyond a certain threshold through acellular growth causes a reduction in the specific tension generating capacity of the muscle. However the physiological parameters of a genetic model that harbours reduced skeletal muscle mass have yet to be analysed. Genetic deletion of Meox2 in mice leads to reduced limb muscle size and causes some patterning defects. The loss of Meox2 is not embryonically lethal and a small percentage of animals survive to adulthood making it an excellent model with which to investigate how skeletal muscle responds to reductions in mass. In this study we have performed a detailed analysis of both late foetal and adult muscle development in the absence of Meox2. In the adult, we show that the loss of Meox2 results in smaller limb muscles that harbour reduced numbers of myofibres. However, these fibres are enlarged. These myofibres display a molecular and metabolic fibre type switch towards a more oxidative phenotype that is induced through abnormalities in foetal fibre formation. In spite of these changes, the muscle from Meox2 mutant mice is able to generate increased levels of specific tension compared to that of the wild type.

The DigiBog model of peatland development 1: rationale, conceptual model, and hydrological basis

Using a literature review, we argue that new models of peatland development are needed. Many existing models do not account for potentially important ecohydrological feedbacks, and/or ignore spatial structure and heterogeneity. Existing models, including those that simulate a near total loss of the northern peatland carbon store under a warming climate, may produce misleading results because they rely upon oversimplified representations of ecological and hydrological processes. In this, the first of a pair of papers, we present the conceptual framework for a model of peatland development, DigiBog, which considers peatlands as complex adaptive systems. DigiBog accounts for the interactions between the processes which govern litter production and peat decay, peat soil hydraulic properties, and peatland water-table behaviour, in a novel and genuinely ecohydrological manner. DigiBog consists of a number of interacting submodels, each representing a different aspect of peatland ecohydrology. Here we present in detail the mathematical and computational basis, as well as the implementation and testing, of the hydrological submodel. Remaining submodels are described and analysed in the accompanying paper. Tests of the hydrological submodel against analytical solutions for simple aquifers were highly successful: the greatest deviation between DigiBog and the analytical solutions was 2·83%. We also applied the hydrological submodel to irregularly shaped aquifers with heterogeneous hydraulic properties—situations for which no analytical solutions exist—and found the model's outputs to be plausible.

Reconciling model and information uncertainty in development appraisal

This paper investigates the effect of choices of model structure and scale in development viability appraisal. The paper addresses two questions concerning the application of development appraisal techniques to viability modelling within the UK planning system. The first relates to the extent to which, given intrinsic input uncertainty, the choice of model structure significantly affects model outputs. The second concerns the extent to which, given intrinsic input uncertainty, the level of model complexity significantly affects model outputs. Monte Carlo simulation procedures are applied to a hypothetical development scheme in order to measure the effects of model aggregation and structure on model output variance. It is concluded that, given the particular scheme modelled and unavoidably subjective assumptions of input variance, simple and simplistic models may produce similar outputs to more robust and disaggregated models.

The UK Department of National Heritage: a model for the development and integration of leisure policy in the new Europe?

Leisure is in the vanguard of a social and cultural revolution which is replacing the former East/West political bipolarity with a globalised economic system in which the new Europe has a central rôle. Within this revolution, leisure, including recreation, culture and tourism, is constructed as the epitome of successful capitalist development; the very legitimisation of the global transmogrification from a production to a consumption orientation. While acting as a direct encouragement to the political transformation in many eastern European states, it is uncertain how the issue of leisure policy is being handled, given its centrality to the new economic order. This paper therefore examines the experience of western Europe, considering in particular the degree to which the newly-created Department of National Heritage in the UK provides a potential model for leisure development and policy integration in the new Europe. Despite an official rhetoric of support and promotion of leisure activities, reflecting the growing economic significance of tourism and the positive relationship between leisure provision and regional economic development, the paper establishes that in the place of the traditional rôle of the state in promoting leisure interests, the introduction of the Department has signified a shift to the use of leisure to promote the Government's interests, particularly in regenerating citizen rights claims towards the market. While an institution such as the Department of National Heritage may have relevance to emerging states as a element in the maintenance of political hegemony, therefore, it is questionable how far it can be viewed as a promoter or protector of leisure as a signifier of a newly-won political, economic and cultural freedom throughout Europe.