The Role of model uncertainty and learning in the U.S. postwar policy response to oil prices

This paper studies optimal monetary policy in a framework that explicitly accounts for policymakers' uncertainty about the channels of transmission of oil prices into the economy. More specfically, I examine the robust response to the real price of oil that US monetary authorities would have been recommended to implement in the period 1970 2009; had they used the approach proposed by Cogley and Sargent (2005b) to incorporate model uncertainty and learning into policy decisions. In this context, I investigate the extent to which regulator' changing beliefs over different models of the economy play a role in the policy selection process. The main conclusion of this work is that, in the specific environment under analysis, one of the underlying models dominates the optimal interest rate response to oil prices. This result persists even when alternative assumptions on the model's priors change the pattern of the relative posterior probabilities, and can thus be attributed to the presence of model uncertainty itself.

Three Essays on the Formation and Impact of Economic Policy

Introduction In my thesis I argue that economic policy is all about economics and politics. Consequently, analysing and understanding economic policy ideally has at least two parts. The economics part, which is centered around the expected impact of a specific policy on the real economy both in terms of efficiency and equity. The insights of this part point into which direction the fine-tuning of economic policies should go. However, fine-tuning of economic policies will be most likely subject to political constraints. That is why, in the politics part, a much better understanding can be gained by taking into account how the incentives of politicians and special interest groups as well as the role played by different institutional features affect the formation of economic policies. The first part and chapter of my thesis concentrates on the efficiency-related impact of economic policies: how does corporate income taxation in general, and corporate income tax progressivity in specific, affect the creation of new firms? Reduced progressivity and flat-rate taxes are in vogue. By 2009, 22 countries are operating flat-rate income tax systems, as do 7 US states and 14 Swiss cantons (for corporate income only). Tax reform proposals in the spirit of the "flat tax" model typically aim to reduce three parameters: the average tax burden, the progressivity of the tax schedule, and the complexity of the tax code. In joint work, Marius Brülhart and I explore the implications of changes in these three parameters on entrepreneurial activity, measured by counts of firm births in a panel of Swiss municipalities. Our results show that lower average tax rates and reduced complexity of the tax code promote firm births. Controlling for these effects, reduced progressivity inhibits firm births. Our reading of these results is that tax progressivity has an insurance effect that facilitates entrepreneurial risk taking. The positive effects of lower tax levels and reduced complexity are estimated to be significantly stronger than the negative effect of reduced progressivity. To the extent that firm births reflect desirable entrepreneurial dynamism, it is not the flattening of tax schedules that is key to successful tax reforms, but the lowering of average tax burdens and the simplification of tax codes. Flatness per se is of secondary importance and even appears to be detrimental to firm births. The second part of my thesis, which corresponds to the second and third chapter, concentrates on how economic policies are formed. By the nature of the analysis, these two chapters draw on a broader literature than the first chapter. Both economists and political scientists have done extensive research on how economic policies are formed. Thereby, researchers in both disciplines have recognised the importance of special interest groups trying to influence policy-making through various channels. In general, economists base their analysis on a formal and microeconomically founded approach, while abstracting from institutional details. In contrast, political scientists' frameworks are generally richer in terms of institutional features but lack the theoretical rigour of economists' approaches. I start from the economist's point of view. However, I try to borrow as much as possible from the findings of political science to gain a better understanding of how economic policies are formed in reality. In the second chapter, I take a theoretical approach and focus on the institutional policy framework to explore how interactions between different political institutions affect the outcome of trade policy in presence of special interest groups' lobbying. Standard political economy theory treats the government as a single institutional actor which sets tariffs by trading off social welfare against contributions from special interest groups seeking industry-specific protection from imports. However, these models lack important (institutional) features of reality. That is why, in my model, I split up the government into a legislative and executive branch which can both be lobbied by special interest groups. Furthermore, the legislative has the option to delegate its trade policy authority to the executive. I allow the executive to compensate the legislative in exchange for delegation. Despite ample anecdotal evidence, bargaining over delegation of trade policy authority has not yet been formally modelled in the literature. I show that delegation has an impact on policy formation in that it leads to lower equilibrium tariffs compared to a standard model without delegation. I also show that delegation will only take place if the lobby is not strong enough to prevent it. Furthermore, the option to delegate increases the bargaining power of the legislative at the expense of the lobbies. Therefore, the findings of this model can shed a light on why the U.S. Congress often practices delegation to the executive. In the final chapter of my thesis, my coauthor, Antonio Fidalgo, and I take a narrower approach and focus on the individual politician level of policy-making to explore how connections to private firms and networks within parliament affect individual politicians' decision-making. Theories in the spirit of the model of the second chapter show how campaign contributions from lobbies to politicians can influence economic policies. There exists an abundant empirical literature that analyses ties between firms and politicians based on campaign contributions. However, the evidence on the impact of campaign contributions is mixed, at best. In our paper, we analyse an alternative channel of influence in the shape of personal connections between politicians and firms through board membership. We identify a direct effect of board membership on individual politicians' voting behaviour and an indirect leverage effect when politicians with board connections influence non-connected peers. We assess the importance of these two effects using a vote in the Swiss parliament on a government bailout of the national airline, Swissair, in 2001, which serves as a natural experiment. We find that both the direct effect of connections to firms and the indirect leverage effect had a strong and positive impact on the probability that a politician supported the government bailout.

TRPM1 is mutated in patients with autosomal-recessive complete congenital stationary night blindness.

Night vision requires signaling from rod photoreceptors to adjacent bipolar cells in the retina. Mutations in the genes NYX and GRM6, expressed in ON bipolar cells, lead to a disruption of the ON bipolar cell response. This dysfunction is present in patients with complete X-linked and autosomal-recessive congenital stationary night blindness (CSNB) and can be assessed by standard full-field electroretinography (ERG), showing severely reduced rod b-wave amplitude and slightly altered cone responses. Although many cases of complete CSNB (cCSNB) are caused by mutations in NYX and GRM6, in approximately 60% of the patients the gene defect remains unknown. Animal models of human diseases are a good source for candidate genes, and we noted that a cCSNB phenotype present in homozygous Appaloosa horses is associated with downregulation of TRPM1. TRPM1, belonging to the family of transient receptor potential channels, is expressed in ON bipolar cells and therefore qualifies as an excellent candidate. Indeed, mutation analysis of 38 patients with CSNB identified ten unrelated cCSNB patients with 14 different mutations in this gene. The mutation spectrum comprises missense, splice-site, deletion, and nonsense mutations. We propose that the cCSNB phenotype in these patients is due to the absence of functional TRPM1 in retinal ON bipolar cells.

Anti-TNF Therapy in the Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease G8 Cohort

Background: A nti-TNF d rugs (Infliximab (IFX), Adalimumab (ADA), Certolizumab pegol (CZP)) are effective in inducing and maintaining response a nd remission in i nflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Insufficient response or side effects may lead to a switch o f the anti-TNF d rug. W e aimed to e valuate the frequency and reasons for anti-TNF switches. Methods: Analysis of data from the Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort (SIBDCS). Eighty percent of included patients were recruited in hospitals and 20% from private practice. Results: From 2,058 patients ( 1,172 with Crohn's disease (CD), 842 with ulcerative colitis (UC) and 44 with indeterminate colitis (IC)), 772 received at least one anti-TNF. Forty-eight % of patients w ith CD, 23% with U C, a nd 30% with IC w ere ever treated with an anti-TNF drug. There was no gender difference with respect to the frequency of a nti-TNF treatment. A total of 584 patients (76%) were treated with one, 142 (18%) with two, and 46 (6%) with three anti-TNF (of which 32 were female). A total of 89% patients were treated with IFX, 28% ADA and 13% with CZP. Overall response rate (defined as drop in CDAI >100 points) to anti-TNF was 50%, with best response rates for the first used anti-TNF. Reasons t o switch t he anti-TNF w ere in 11% a primary non-response, in 38% a loss of response and in 36% anti-TNF s ide effects o r intolerance ( reasons for 15% of treatment failures not documented). Conclusion: A nti-TNF d rugs were used in h alf of the CD patients a nd in o ne quarter of U C patients. Anti-TNF d rug switch d ue to insufficient response a nd/or side effects w as necessary in one quarter of IBD patients. IFX was mainly used as first-line therapy. Best response rates were observed for the first used anti-TNF. Following analyses will identify risk median treatment duration as well as risk factors for anti-TNF switch.

Dynamics of phonological-phonetic encoding in word production: Evidence from diverging ERPs between stroke patients and controls.

While the dynamics of lexical-semantic and lexical-phonological encoding in word production have been investigated in several event-related potential (ERP) studies, the estimated time course of phonological-phonetic encoding is the result of rather indirect evidence. We investigated the dynamics of phonological-phonetic encoding combining ERP analyses covering the entire encoding process in picture naming and word reading tasks by comparing ERP modulations in eight brain-damaged speakers presenting impaired phonological-phonetic encoding relative to 16 healthy controls. ERPs diverged between groups in terms of local waveform amplitude and global topography at ∼400ms after stimulus onset in the picture naming task and at ∼320-350ms in word reading and sustained until 100ms before articulation onset. These divergences appeared in later time windows than those found in patients with underlying lexical-semantic and lexical-phonological impairment in previous studies, providing evidence that phonological-phonetic encoding is engaged around 400ms in picture naming and around 330ms in word reading.

Identification and analysis of functional elements in 1% of the human genome by the ENCODE pilot project.

We report the generation and analysis of functional data from multiple, diverse experiments performed on a targeted 1% of the human genome as part of the pilot phase of the ENCODE Project. These data have been further integrated and augmented by a number of evolutionary and computational analyses. Together, our results advance the collective knowledge about human genome function in several major areas. First, our studies provide convincing evidence that the genome is pervasively transcribed, such that the majority of its bases can be found in primary transcripts, including non-protein-coding transcripts, and those that extensively overlap one another. Second, systematic examination of transcriptional regulation has yielded new understanding about transcription start sites, including their relationship to specific regulatory sequences and features of chromatin accessibility and histone modification. Third, a more sophisticated view of chromatin structure has emerged, including its inter-relationship with DNA replication and transcriptional regulation. Finally, integration of these new sources of information, in particular with respect to mammalian evolution based on inter- and intra-species sequence comparisons, has yielded new mechanistic and evolutionary insights concerning the functional landscape of the human genome. Together, these studies are defining a path for pursuit of a more comprehensive characterization of human genome function.

Timing of Palaeozoic magmatism in the Maggia and Sambuco nappes and paleogeographic implications (Central Lepontine Alps)

Magmatic rocks from the pre-Mesozoic basements of the Sambuco and Maggia nappes have been dated by U-Pb zircon ages with the LA-ICPMS technique. Several magmatic events have been identified in the Sambuco nappe. The mafic banded calc-alkaline suite of Scheggia is dated at 540 Ma, an age comparable to that of mafic rocks in the Austroalpine Silvretta nappe. The Sasso Nero peraluminous augengneiss has an age of 480-470 Ma, like many other ``older orthogneisses'' in Alpine basement units. It hosts a large proportion of inherited zircons, which were dated around 630 Ma, a Panafrican age indicating the Gondwanan affiliation of the Sambuco basement. The calc-alkaline Matorello pluton yielded ages around 300 Ma, similar to numerous Late Carboniferous intrusions in other basement units of the Lower Penninic (Monte Leone, Antigorio, Verampio) and Helvetic domains (Gotthard and other External Crystalline Massifs). Associated lamprophyric dykes are slightly younger (300-290 Ma), like similar dykes sampled in gneiss blocks included in the sedimentary cover of the underlying Antigorio nappe (290-285 Ma). The Cocco granodiorite and Ruscada leucogranite, both intruding the basement of the neighbouring Maggia nappe, yielded ages of ca. 300-310 Ma, identical within errors to the age of the Matorello pluton. They are significantly older than former age determinations. This age coincidence, coupled with remarkable petrologic similarities between the Cocco and Matorello granodiorites, strongly suggests paleogeographic proximity of the Sambuco and Maggia nappes in Late Carboniferous times. In recent publications these two nappes have been interpreted as belonging to distinct Mesozoic paleogeographic domains: ``European'' for Sambuco and ``Brian double dagger onnais'' for Maggia, separated by the ``Valais'' oceanic basin. In this case, the similarity of the Matorello and Cocco intrusions would demonstrate the absence of any significant transcurrent movement between these two continental domains. Alternatively, according to a more traditional view, Sambuco and Maggia might belong to a single large Alpine tectonic unit.

Research needs in allergy: an EAACI position paper, in collaboration with EFA.

In less than half a century, allergy, originally perceived as a rare disease, has become a major public health threat, today affecting the lives of more than 60 million people in Europe, and probably close to one billion worldwide, thereby heavily impacting the budgets of public health systems. More disturbingly, its prevalence and impact are on the rise, a development that has been associated with environmental and lifestyle changes accompanying the continuous process of urbanization and globalization. Therefore, there is an urgent need to prioritize and concert research efforts in the field of allergy, in order to achieve sustainable results on prevention, diagnosis and treatment of this most prevalent chronic disease of the 21st century.The European Academy of Allergy and Clinical Immunology (EAACI) is the leading professional organization in the field of allergy, promoting excellence in clinical care, education, training and basic and translational research, all with the ultimate goal of improving the health of allergic patients. The European Federation of Allergy and Airways Diseases Patients' Associations (EFA) is a non-profit network of allergy, asthma and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disorder (COPD) patients' organizations. In support of their missions, the present EAACI Position Paper, in collaboration with EFA, highlights the most important research needs in the field of allergy to serve as key recommendations for future research funding at the national and European levels.Although allergies may involve almost every organ of the body and an array of diverse external factors act as triggers, there are several common themes that need to be prioritized in research efforts. As in many other chronic diseases, effective prevention, curative treatment and accurate, rapid diagnosis represent major unmet needs. Detailed phenotyping/endotyping stands out as widely required in order to arrange or re-categorize clinical syndromes into more coherent, uniform and treatment-responsive groups. Research efforts to unveil the basic pathophysiologic pathways and mechanisms, thus leading to the comprehension and resolution of the pathophysiologic complexity of allergies will allow for the design of novel patient-oriented diagnostic and treatment protocols. Several allergic diseases require well-controlled epidemiological description and surveillance, using disease registries, pharmacoeconomic evaluation, as well as large biobanks. Additionally, there is a need for extensive studies to bring promising new biotechnological innovations, such as biological agents, vaccines of modified allergen molecules and engineered components for allergy diagnosis, closer to clinical practice. Finally, particular attention should be paid to the difficult-to-manage, precarious and costly severe disease forms and/or exacerbations. Nonetheless, currently arising treatments, mainly in the fields of immunotherapy and biologicals, hold great promise for targeted and causal management of allergic conditions. Active involvement of all stakeholders, including Patient Organizations and policy makers are necessary to achieve the aims emphasized herein.

Platelet count and outcome in patients with acute venous thromboembolism.

The relationship between platelet count and outcome in patients with acute venous thromboembolism (VTE) has not been consistently explored. RIETE is an ongoing registry of consecutive patients with acute VTE. We categorised patients as having very low- (<80,000/µl), low- (80,000/µl to 150,000/µl), normal- (150,000/µl to 300,000/µl), high- (300,000/µl to 450,000/µl), or very high (>450,000/µl) platelet count at baseline, and compared their three-month outcome. As of October 2012, 43,078 patients had been enrolled in RIETE: 21,319 presenting with pulmonary embolism and 21,759 with deep-vein thrombosis. In all, 502 patients (1.2%) had very low-; 5,472 (13%) low-; 28,386 (66%) normal-; 7,157 (17%) high-; and 1,561 (3.6%) very high platelet count. During the three-month study period, the recurrence rate was: 2.8%, 2.2%, 1.8%, 2.1% and 2.2%, respectively; the rate of major bleeding: 5.8%, 2.6%, 1.7%, 2.3% and 4.6%, respectively; the rate of fatal bleeding: 2.0%, 0.9%, 0.3%, 0.5% and 1.2%, respectively; and the mortality rate: 29%, 11%, 6.5%, 8.8% and 14%, respectively. On multivariate analysis, patients with very low-, low-, high- or very high platelet count had an increased risk for major bleeding (odds ratio [OR]: 2.70, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.85-3.95; 1.43 [1.18-1.72]; 1.23 [1.03-1.47]; and 2.13 [1.65-2.75]) and fatal bleeding (OR: 3.70 [1.92-7.16], 2.10 [1.48-2.97], 1.29 [0.88-1.90] and 2.49 [1.49-4.15]) compared with those with normal count. In conclusion, we found a U-shaped relationship between platelet count and the three-month rate of major bleeding and fatal bleeding in patients with VTE.

A measure of the intensity of response to alcohol to screen for alcohol use disorders in primary care.

Alcohol-dependent subjects tend to report lower level of response to alcohol (LR) in the years before the disorder developed, compared to control subjects. The Self-Rating of the Effects of alcohol (SRE) score is a quick and valid retrospective estimate of LR. This study examined the associations between alcohol abuse or dependence and early experience of alcohol as measured on retrospective SRE score (relating to the first five times alcohol was imbibed), and the presence of alcohol abuse or dependence, in patients attending primary care. Higher Early SRE score (i.e. greater early tolerance of alcohol) was obtained in patients with an alcohol-related diagnosis than in patients without those diagnoses. Using a cut-off of 2 on the Early SRE score, the Early SRE score could discriminate between patients with and without an alcohol diagnosis with moderate to high sensitivity (84%) and modest specificity (57%).

Low-grade and high-grade mammary carcinomas in WAP-T transgenic mice are independent entities distinguished by Met expression.

Mammary carcinomas developing in SV40 transgenic WAP-T mice arise in two distinct histological phenotypes: as differentiated low-grade and undifferentiated high-grade tumors. We integrated different types of information such as histological grading, analysis of aCGH-based gene copy number and gene expression profiling to provide a comprehensive molecular description of mammary tumors in WAP-T mice. Applying a novel procedure for the correlation of gene copy number with gene expression on a global scale, we observed in tumor samples a global coherence between genotype and transcription. This coherence can be interpreted as a matched transcriptional regulation inherited from the cells of tumor origin and determined by the activity of cancer driver genes. Despite common recurrent genomic aberrations, e.g. gain of chr. 15 in most WAP-T tumors, loss of chr. 19 frequently occurs only in low-grade tumors. These tumors show features of "basal-like" epithelial differentiation, particularly expression of keratin 14. The high-grade tumors are clearly separated from the low-grade tumors by strong expression of the Met gene and by coexpression of epithelial (e.g. keratin 18) and mesenchymal (e.g. vimentin) markers. In high-grade tumors, the expression of the nonmutated Met protein is associated with Met-locus amplification and Met activity. The role of Met as a cancer driver gene is supported by the contribution of active Met signaling to motility and growth of mammary tumor-derived cells. Finally, we discuss the independent origin of low- and high-grade tumors from distinct cells of tumor origin, possibly luminal progenitors, distinguished by Met gene expression and Met signaling.

A role for the src family kinase Fyn in NK cell activation and the formation of the repertoire of Ly49 receptors.

NK cell function is regulated by a dual receptor system, which integrates signals from triggering receptors and MHC class I-specific inhibitory receptors. We show here that the src family kinase Fyn is required for efficient, NK cell-mediated lysis of target cells, which lack both self-MHC class I molecules and ligands for NKG2D, an activating NK cell receptor. In contrast, NK cell inhibition by the MHC class I-specific receptor Ly49A was independent of Fyn, suggesting that Fyn is specifically required for NK cell activation via non-MHC receptor(s). Compared to wild type, significantly fewer Fyn-deficient NK cells expressed the inhibitory Ly49A receptor. The presence of a transgenic Ly49A receptor together with its H-2(d) ligand strongly reduced the usage of endogenous Ly49 receptors in Fyn-deficient mice. These data suggest a model in which the repertoire of inhibitory Ly49 receptors is formed under the influenced of Fyn-dependent NK cell activation as well as the respective MHC class I environment. NK cells may acquire Ly49 receptors until they generate sufficient inhibitory signals to balance their activation levels. Such a process would ensure the induction of NK cell self-tolerance.