Raum-zeitliche Analyse der Klimavariabilität anhand von hochaufgelösten interpolierten Klimakarten am Beispiel von Europa (Region VI der Weltorganisation für Meteorologie)

Klimamontoring benötigt eine operative, raum-zeitliche Analyse der Klimavariabilität. Mit dieser Zielsetzung, funktionsbereite Karten regelmäßig zu erstellen, ist es hilfreich auf einen Blick, die räumliche Variabilität der Klimaelemente in der zeitlichen Veränderungen darzustellen. Für aktuelle und kürzlich vergangene Jahre entwickelte der Deutsche Wetterdienst ein Standardverfahren zur Erstellung solcher Karten. Die Methode zur Erstellung solcher Karten variiert für die verschiedenen Klimaelemente bedingt durch die Datengrundlage, die natürliche Variabilität und der Verfügbarkeit der in-situ Daten.rnIm Rahmen der Analyse der raum-zeitlichen Variabilität innerhalb dieser Dissertation werden verschiedene Interpolationsverfahren auf die Mitteltemperatur der fünf Dekaden der Jahre 1951-2000 für ein relativ großes Gebiet, der Region VI der Weltorganisation für Meteorologie (Europa und Naher Osten) angewendet. Die Region deckt ein relativ heterogenes Arbeitsgebiet von Grönland im Nordwesten bis Syrien im Südosten hinsichtlich der Klimatologie ab.rnDas zentrale Ziel der Dissertation ist eine Methode zur räumlichen Interpolation der mittleren Dekadentemperaturwerte für die Region VI zu entwickeln. Diese Methode soll in Zukunft für die operative monatliche Klimakartenerstellung geeignet sein. Diese einheitliche Methode soll auf andere Klimaelemente übertragbar und mit der entsprechenden Software überall anwendbar sein. Zwei zentrale Datenbanken werden im Rahmen dieser Dissertation verwendet: So genannte CLIMAT-Daten über dem Land und Schiffsdaten über dem Meer.rnIm Grunde wird die Übertragung der Punktwerte der Temperatur per räumlicher Interpolation auf die Fläche in drei Schritten vollzogen. Der erste Schritt beinhaltet eine multiple Regression zur Reduktion der Stationswerte mit den vier Einflussgrößen der Geographischen Breite, der Höhe über Normalnull, der Jahrestemperaturamplitude und der thermischen Kontinentalität auf ein einheitliches Niveau. Im zweiten Schritt werden die reduzierten Temperaturwerte, so genannte Residuen, mit der Interpolationsmethode der Radialen Basis Funktionen aus der Gruppe der Neuronalen Netzwerk Modelle (NNM) interpoliert. Im letzten Schritt werden die interpolierten Temperaturraster mit der Umkehrung der multiplen Regression aus Schritt eins mit Hilfe der vier Einflussgrößen auf ihr ursprüngliches Niveau hochgerechnet.rnFür alle Stationswerte wird die Differenz zwischen geschätzten Wert aus der Interpolation und dem wahren gemessenen Wert berechnet und durch die geostatistische Kenngröße des Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE) wiedergegeben. Der zentrale Vorteil ist die wertegetreue Wiedergabe, die fehlende Generalisierung und die Vermeidung von Interpolationsinseln. Das entwickelte Verfahren ist auf andere Klimaelemente wie Niederschlag, Schneedeckenhöhe oder Sonnenscheindauer übertragbar.

Kernel density correlation based non-rigid point set matching for statistical model-based 2D/3D reconstruction

This paper presents a kernel density correlation based nonrigid point set matching method and shows its application in statistical model based 2D/3D reconstruction of a scaled, patient-specific model from an un-calibrated x-ray radiograph. In this method, both the reference point set and the floating point set are first represented using kernel density estimates. A correlation measure between these two kernel density estimates is then optimized to find a displacement field such that the floating point set is moved to the reference point set. Regularizations based on the overall deformation energy and the motion smoothness energy are used to constraint the displacement field for a robust point set matching. Incorporating this non-rigid point set matching method into a statistical model based 2D/3D reconstruction framework, we can reconstruct a scaled, patient-specific model from noisy edge points that are extracted directly from the x-ray radiograph by an edge detector. Our experiment conducted on datasets of two patients and six cadavers demonstrates a mean reconstruction error of 1.9 mm

A Portable Image Overlay Projection Device for Computer-Aided Open Liver Surgery

Image overlay projection is a form of augmented reality that allows surgeons to view underlying anatomical structures directly on the patient surface. It improves intuitiveness of computer-aided surgery by removing the need for sight diversion between the patient and a display screen and has been reported to assist in 3-D understanding of anatomical structures and the identification of target and critical structures. Challenges in the development of image overlay technologies for surgery remain in the projection setup. Calibration, patient registration, view direction, and projection obstruction remain unsolved limitations to image overlay techniques. In this paper, we propose a novel, portable, and handheld-navigated image overlay device based on miniature laser projection technology that allows images of 3-D patient-specific models to be projected directly onto the organ surface intraoperatively without the need for intrusive hardware around the surgical site. The device can be integrated into a navigation system, thereby exploiting existing patient registration and model generation solutions. The position of the device is tracked by the navigation system’s position sensor and used to project geometrically correct images from any position within the workspace of the navigation system. The projector was calibrated using modified camera calibration techniques and images for projection are rendered using a virtual camera defined by the projectors extrinsic parameters. Verification of the device’s projection accuracy concluded a mean projection error of 1.3 mm. Visibility testing of the projection performed on pig liver tissue found the device suitable for the display of anatomical structures on the organ surface. The feasibility of use within the surgical workflow was assessed during open liver surgery. We show that the device could be quickly and unobtrusively deployed within the sterile environment.

Experimentation with different thermodynamic cycles used for pKa calculations on carboxylic acids using Complete Basis Set and Gaussian-n Models combined with CPCM Continuum Solvation Methods

Complete basis set and Gaussian-n methods were combined with Barone and Cossi's implementation of the polarizable conductor model (CPCM) continuum solvation methods to calculate pKa values for six carboxylic acids. Four different thermodynamic cycles were considered in this work. An experimental value of −264.61 kcal/mol for the free energy of solvation of H+, ΔGs(H+), was combined with a value for Ggas(H+) of −6.28 kcal/mol, to calculate pKa values with cycle 1. The complete basis set gas-phase methods used to calculate gas-phase free energies are very accurate, with mean unsigned errors of 0.3 kcal/mol and standard deviations of 0.4 kcal/mol. The CPCM solvation calculations used to calculate condensed-phase free energies are slightly less accurate than the gas-phase models, and the best method has a mean unsigned error and standard deviation of 0.4 and 0.5 kcal/mol, respectively. Thermodynamic cycles that include an explicit water in the cycle are not accurate when the free energy of solvation of a water molecule is used, but appear to become accurate when the experimental free energy of vaporization of water is used. This apparent improvement is an artifact of the standard state used in the calculation. Geometry relaxation in solution does not improve the results when using these later cycles. The use of cycle 1 and the complete basis set models combined with the CPCM solvation methods yielded pKa values accurate to less than half a pKa unit. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Int J Quantum Chem, 2001

Accurate pKa Calculations for Carboxylic Acids Using Complete Basis Set and Gaussian-n Models Combined with CPCM Continuum Solvation Methods”

Complete Basis Set and Gaussian-n methods were combined with CPCM continuum solvation methods to calculate pKa values for six carboxylic acids. An experimental value of −264.61 kcal/mol for the free energy of solvation of H+, ΔGs(H+), was combined with a value for Ggas(H+) of −6.28 kcal/mol to calculate pKa values with Cycle 1. The Complete Basis Set gas-phase methods used to calculate gas-phase free energies are very accurate, with mean unsigned errors of 0.3 kcal/mol and standard deviations of 0.4 kcal/mol. The CPCM solvation calculations used to calculate condensed-phase free energies are slightly less accurate than the gas-phase models, and the best method has a mean unsigned error and standard deviation of 0.4 and 0.5 kcal/mol, respectively. The use of Cycle 1 and the Complete Basis Set models combined with the CPCM solvation methods yielded pKa values accurate to less than half a pKa unit.

Efficient and Accurate Characterization of the Bergman Cyclization for an Expanded Substructure of Esperamicin A1

Incorporation of enediynes into anticancer drugs remains an intriguing yet elusive strategy for the design of therapeutically active agents. Density functional theory was used to locate reactants, products, and transition states along the Bergman cyclization pathways connecting enediynes to reactive para-biradicals. Sum method correction to low-level calculations confirmed B3LYP/6-31G(d,p) as the method of choice in investigating enediynes. Herein described as MI:Sum, calculated reaction enthalpies differed from experiment by an average of 2.1 kcal·mol−1 (mean unsigned error). A combination of strain energy released across the reaction coordinate and the critical intramolecular distance between reacting diynes explains reactivity differences. Where experimental and calculated barrier heights are in disagreement, higher level multireference treatment of the enediynes confirms lower level estimates. Previous work concerning the chemically reactive fragment of esperamcin, MTC, is expanded to our model system MTC2.

Validation of a modified AVHRR aerosol optical depth retrieval algorithm over Central Europe

The Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) carried on board the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Meteorological Operational Satellite (MetOp) polar orbiting satellites is the only instrument offering more than 25 years of satellite data to analyse aerosols on a daily basis. The present study assessed a modified AVHRR aerosol optical depth τa retrieval over land for Europe. The algorithm might also be applied to other parts of the world with similar surface characteristics like Europe, only the aerosol properties would have to be adapted to a new region. The initial approach used a relationship between Sun photometer measurements from the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) and the satellite data to post-process the retrieved τa. Herein a quasi-stand-alone procedure, which is more suitable for the pre-AERONET era, is presented. In addition, the estimation of surface reflectance, the aerosol model, and other processing steps have been adapted. The method's cross-platform applicability was tested by validating τa from NOAA-17 and NOAA-18 AVHRR at 15 AERONET sites in Central Europe (40.5° N–50° N, 0° E–17° E) from August 2005 to December 2007. Furthermore, the accuracy of the AVHRR retrieval was related to products from two newer instruments, the Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) on board the Environmental Satellite (ENVISAT) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on board Aqua/Terra. Considering the linear correlation coefficient R, the AVHRR results were similar to those of MERIS with even lower root mean square error RMSE. Not surprisingly, MODIS, with its high spectral coverage, gave the highest R and lowest RMSE. Regarding monthly averaged τa, the results were ambiguous. Focusing on small-scale structures, R was reduced for all sensors, whereas the RMSE solely for MERIS substantially increased. Regarding larger areas like Central Europe, the error statistics were similar to the individual match-ups. This was mainly explained with sampling issues. With the successful validation of AVHRR we are now able to concentrate on our large data archive dating back to 1985. This is a unique opportunity for both climate and air pollution studies over land surfaces.

Effect of pulsatility on the mathematical modeling of rotary blood pumps

In this study, the effect of time derivatives of flow rate and rotational speed was investigated on the mathematical modeling of a rotary blood pump (RBP). The basic model estimates the pressure head of the pump as a dependent variable using measured flow and speed as predictive variables. Performance of the model was evaluated by adding time derivative terms for flow and speed. First, to create a realistic working condition, the Levitronix CentriMag RBP was implanted in a sheep. All parameters from the model were physically measured and digitally acquired over a wide range of conditions, including pulsatile speed. Second, a statistical analysis of the different variables (flow, speed, and their time derivatives) based on multiple regression analysis was performed to determine the significant variables for pressure head estimation. Finally, different mathematical models were used to show the effect of time derivative terms on the performance of the models. In order to evaluate how well the estimated pressure head using different models fits the measured pressure head, root mean square error and correlation coefficient were used. The results indicate that inclusion of time derivatives of flow and speed can improve model accuracy, but only minimally.

Examining the Role of Vocational Rehabilitation on Access to Care and Public Health Outcomes for People Living with HIV/AIDS

The purpose of this study is to examine the role of vocational rehabilitation services in contributing to the goals of the National HIV/AIDS strategy. Three key research questions are addressed: (a) What is the relationship among factors associated with the use of vocational rehabilitation services for people living with HIV/AIDS? (b) Are the factors associated with use of vocational rehabilitation also associated with access to health care, supplemental employment services and reduced risk of HIV transmission? And (c) What unique role does use of vocational rehabilitation services play in access to health care and HIV prevention? Survey research methods were used to collect data from a broad sample of volunteer respondents who represented diverse racial (37% Black, 37% White, 18% Latino, 7% other), gender (65% male, 34% female, 1% transgender) and sexual orientation (48% heterosexual, 44% gay, 8% bisexual) backgrounds. The fit of the final structural equation model was good (root mean square error of approximation = .055, Comparative Fit Index=.953, Tucker Lewis Index=.945). Standardized effects with bootstrap confidence intervals are reported. Overall, the findings support the hypothesis that vocational rehabilitation services can play an important role in health and prevention strategies outlined in the National HIV/AIDS strategy.

Atrial remodeling, autonomic tone, and lifetime training hours in nonelite athletes

Endurance athletes have an increased risk of developing atrial fibrillation (AF) at 40 to 50 years of age. Signal-averaged P-wave analysis has been used for identifying patients at risk for AF. We evaluated the impact of lifetime training hours on signal-averaged P-wave duration and modifying factors. Nonelite men athletes scheduled to participate in the 2010 Grand Prix of Bern, a 10-mile race, were invited. Four hundred ninety-two marathon and nonmarathon runners applied for participation, 70 were randomly selected, and 60 entered the final analysis. Subjects were stratified according to their lifetime training hours (average endurance and strength training hours per week × 52 × training years) in low (<1,500 hours), medium (1,500 to 4,500 hours), and high (>4,500 hours) training groups. Mean age was 42 ± 7 years. From low to high training groups signal-averaged P-wave duration increased from 131 ± 6 to 142 ± 13 ms (p = 0.026), and left atrial volume increased from 24.8 ± 4.6 to 33.1 ± 6.2 ml/m(2) (p = 0.001). Parasympathetic tone expressed as root of the mean squared differences of successive normal-to-normal intervals increased from 34 ± 13 to 47 ± 16 ms (p = 0.002), and premature atrial contractions increased from 6.1 ± 7.4 to 10.8 ± 7.7 per 24 hours (p = 0.026). Left ventricular mass increased from 100.7 ± 9.0 to 117.1 ± 18.2 g/m(2) (p = 0.002). Left ventricular systolic and diastolic function and blood pressure at rest were normal in all athletes and showed no differences among training groups. Four athletes (6.7%) had a history of paroxysmal AF, as did 1 athlete in the medium training group and 3 athletes in the high training group (p = 0.252). In conclusion, in nonelite men athletes lifetime training hours are associated with prolongation of signal-averaged P-wave duration and an increase in left atrial volume. The altered left atrial substrate may facilitate occurrence of AF. Increased vagal tone and atrial ectopy may serve as modifying and triggering factors.

Conserving indigenous animal genetic resources as a coping strategy to adapt to climate change: the Azikheli Buffalo in Northern Mountains of Pakistan

There are clear signs that the agro-pastoralists in the Himalayan and Hindu-Kush mountain ranges will have less cropping opportunities due to reduced possibilities for irrigated agriculture as a result of climate change. The importance of extensive livestock production based on well adapted livestock species may once again increase. This calls for a better documentation and understanding of the adaptation capabilities of indigenous breeds considering a changing environment. The current study investigates the adaptive traits of the Azikheli buffalo to mountain environments through calculating mean, standard error and percentages for different variables. Results from this study suggest that the brown coat color, the small body size and the high fertility are adaptive traits of the Azikheli buffalo that may well suit harsh mountainous environment conditions with greater climate variability. Local farmers find it hard to sustain the Azikheli buffalo’s key adaptive traits because of a low bull to buffalo ratio, possibility of insemination with semen from imported breeds and a lack of institutional support to conserve the Azikheli breed. The breed is crucial for sustaining custodian communities in these mountains and thus needs to be conserved.

A realistic validation study of a new nitrogen multiple-breath washout system

Background For reliable assessment of ventilation inhomogeneity, multiple-breath washout (MBW) systems should be realistically validated. We describe a new lung model for in vitro validation under physiological conditions and the assessment of a new nitrogen (N2)MBW system. Methods The N2MBW setup indirectly measures the N2 fraction (FN2) from main-stream carbon dioxide (CO2) and side-stream oxygen (O2) signals: FN2 = 1−FO2−FCO2−FArgon. For in vitro N2MBW, a double chamber plastic lung model was filled with water, heated to 37°C, and ventilated at various lung volumes, respiratory rates, and FCO2. In vivo N2MBW was undertaken in triplets on two occasions in 30 healthy adults. Primary N2MBW outcome was functional residual capacity (FRC). We assessed in vitro error (√[difference]2) between measured and model FRC (100–4174 mL), and error between tests of in vivo FRC, lung clearance index (LCI), and normalized phase III slope indices (Sacin and Scond). Results The model generated 145 FRCs under BTPS conditions and various breathing patterns. Mean (SD) error was 2.3 (1.7)%. In 500 to 4174 mL FRCs, 121 (98%) of FRCs were within 5%. In 100 to 400 mL FRCs, the error was better than 7%. In vivo FRC error between tests was 10.1 (8.2)%. LCI was the most reproducible ventilation inhomogeneity index. Conclusion The lung model generates lung volumes under the conditions encountered during clinical MBW testing and enables realistic validation of MBW systems. The new N2MBW system reliably measures lung volumes and delivers reproducible LCI values.

Reconstruction of patient-specific 3D bone surface from 2D calibrated fluoroscopic images and point distribution model

Reconstruction of patient-specific 3D bone surface from 2D calibrated fluoroscopic images and a point distribution model is discussed. We present a 2D/3D reconstruction scheme combining statistical extrapolation and regularized shape deformation with an iterative image-to-model correspondence establishing algorithm, and show its application to reconstruct the surface of proximal femur. The image-to-model correspondence is established using a non-rigid 2D point matching process, which iteratively uses a symmetric injective nearest-neighbor mapping operator and 2D thin-plate splines based deformation to find a fraction of best matched 2D point pairs between features detected from the fluoroscopic images and those extracted from the 3D model. The obtained 2D point pairs are then used to set up a set of 3D point pairs such that we turn a 2D/3D reconstruction problem to a 3D/3D one. We designed and conducted experiments on 11 cadaveric femurs to validate the present reconstruction scheme. An average mean reconstruction error of 1.2 mm was found when two fluoroscopic images were used for each bone. It decreased to 1.0 mm when three fluoroscopic images were used.

Oral misoprostol for third stage of labor: a randomized placebo-controlled trial

OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether orally administered misoprostol during the third stage of labor is efficient in reducing postpartum blood loss. METHODS: In a double-masked trial, during vaginal delivery women were randomly assigned to receive a single oral dose of misoprostol (600 microg) or placebo in third stage of labor, immediately after cord clamping. The third stage of labor was managed routinely by early cord clamping and controlled cord traction; oxytocin was administered only if blood loss seemed more than usual. Blood loss was estimated by the delivering physician and differences in hematocrit were measured before and after delivery. RESULTS: Mean (+/- standard error of the mean) estimated blood loss (345 +/- 19.5 mL versus 417 +/- 25.9 mL, P = .031) and hematocrit difference (4.5 +/- 0.9% versus 7.9 +/- 1.2%, P = .014) were significantly lower in women who received misoprostol than those who received placebo. Fewer women in the misoprostol group had postpartum hemorrhage (blood loss of at least 500 mL), but that difference was not statistically significant (7% versus 15%, P = .43). Additional oxytocin before or after placental separation was used less often in the misoprostol group (16% versus 38%, P = .047). There were no differences in the length of third stage of labor (8 +/- 0.9 minutes versus 9 +/- 1 minutes, P = .947). There were no differences in pain during third stage of labor, postpartum fever, or diarrhea, but shivering was more frequent in the misoprostol group. CONCLUSION: Oral misoprostol administered in the third stage of labor reduced postpartum blood loss and might be effective in reducing incidence of postpartum hemorrhage.

Comparison of Doppler-derived aortic velocities obtained from various transducer sites in healthy dogs and cats

In normal dogs and dogs with subaortic stenosis, it is known that the subcostal transducer site provides higher left ventricular ejection velocities than does the left apical site. We hypothesized that aortic flow velocities could also be obtained from the right parasternal long-axis view, optimized for the placement of the Doppler cursor as parallel as possible into the aortic root. In 15 healthy dogs and 13 healthy cats, high-pulsed repetition frequency Doppler flow velocity measurements in the proximal aorta were performed using two-dimensional echocardiographic guidance. The mean [ +/- standard error of the mean (SEM)] peak aortic flow velocities in healthy dogs were as follows: subcostal site 1.46 +/- 0.05 m/s; apical site 1.12 +/- 0.06 m/s; right parasternal long-axis site 1.09 +/- 0.05 m/s. In healthy cats, the following peak aortic flow velocities were observed: apical site 0.87 +/- 0.03m/s; right parasternal long-axis site 0.87 +/- 0.03 m/s. Aortic flow velocities obtained from the subcostal site were significantly higher in healthy dogs than those obtained from the left apical and right parasternal long-axis site (P< 0.001). There was no statistical difference between the peak aortic flow velocities obtained from right parasternal long-axis and left apical transducer position in all groups. We conclude therefore that right parasternal long-axis and left apical-derived aortic flow velocities are similar and may be used interchangeably in healthy dogs and cats.