Intégration du concept de capacité de support d’un plan d’eau aux apports en phosphore à l’aménagement du territoire au Québec : Réalité ou utopie?

Ce mémoire a comme objectif de présenter une revue de la littérature et une analyse comparative des différents modèles existants pour le calcul de la capacité de support d’un plan d’eau aux apports en phosphore. Ce document a aussi pour but d’évaluer les différentes options pour l’utilisation de ce genre d’outil au Québec, ainsi que d’amorcer une réflexion sur les applications possibles de ce concept au niveau local, en lien avec l’aménagement du territoire des bassins versants. L’analyse comparative des modèles théoriques, combinée à la réflexion d’acteurs clés impliqués actuellement dans un processus qui consiste à tester leur utilisation dans les Laurentides au Québec, a permis de mettre en relief l’importance de calibrer les modèles régionalement. De plus, certains avantages semblent résider dans l’utilisation d’un modèle de nature empirique afin d’effectuer les prédictions sur les apports naturels et totaux en phosphore pour les lacs de cette région. Par contre, l’utilisation d’une approche de type « bilan de masse », s’avère tout de même indispensable afin de relativiser l’importance des différents apports anthropiques en phosphore du bassin versant. Dans l’avenir, l’utilisation de tels modèles permettra possiblement de justifier certaines mesures restrictives au développement des bassins versants, qui pourront s’insérer parmi les outils d’urbanisme actuels. Ce sont principalement les municipalités qui détiennent les pouvoirs nécessaires afin d’intégrer les prescriptions découlant de ce genre d’analyse à l’aménagement du territoire des bassins versants. Plusieurs outils d’urbanisme, tels que les plans d’aménagement d’ensemble (PAE) ou bien les règlements de zonage et de lotissement, semblent donner assez de latitude afin de permettre aux municipalités d’intervenir en ce sens. Toutefois, les modèles de capacité de support ne pourront pas être utilisés afin de calculer un nombre précis d’habitations qu’il est possible de construire dans le bassin versant d’un lac.

A review of dissolved oxygen modelling techniques for lowland rivers

This review introduces the methods used to simulate the processes affecting dissolved oxygen (DO) in lowland rivers. The important processes are described and this provides a modelling framework to describe those processes in the context of a mass-balance model. The process equations that are introduced all require (reaction) rate parameters and a variety of common procedures for identifying those parameters are reviewed. This is important because there is a wide range of estimation techniques for many of the parameters. These different techniques elicit different estimates of the parameter value and so there is the potential for a significant uncertainty in the model's inputs and therefore in the output too. Finally, the data requirements for modelling DO in lowland rivers are summarised on the basis of modelling the processes described in this review using a mass-balance model. This is reviewed with regard to what data are available and from where they might be obtained. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Ice-sheet contributions to future sea-level change

Accurate simulation of ice-sheet surface mass balance requires higher spatial resolution than is afforded by typical atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), owing, in particular, to the need to resolve the narrow and steep margins where the majority of precipitation and ablation occurs. We have developed a method for calculating mass-balance changes by combining ice-sheet average time-series from AOGCM projections for future centuries, both with information from high-resolution climate models run for short periods and with a 20 km ice-sheet mass-balance model. Antarctica contributes negatively to sea level on account of increased accumulation, while Greenland contributes positively because ablation increases more rapidly. The uncertainty in the results is about 20% for Antarctica and 35% for Greenland. Changes in ice-sheet topography and dynamics are not included, but we discuss their possible effects. For an annual- and area-average warming exceeding 4.5 +/- 0.9 K in Greenland and 3.1 +/- 0.8 K in the global average, the net surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet becomes negative, in which case it is likely that the ice sheet would eventually be eliminated, raising global-average sea level by 7 m.

Recent Glacier Retreat Exceeds Internal Variability

Glacier fluctuations exclusively due to internal variations in the climate system are simulated using downscaled integrations of the ECHAM4/OPYC coupled general circulation model (GCM). A process-based modeling approach using a mass balance model of intermediate complexity and a dynamic ice flow model considering simple shearing flow and sliding are applied. Multimillennia records of glacier length fluctuations for Nigardsbreen (Norway) and Rhonegletscher (Switzerland) are simulated using autoregressive processes determined by statistically downscaled GCM experiments. Return periods and probabilities of specific glacier length changes using GCM integrations excluding external forcings such as solar irradiation changes, volcanic, or anthropogenic effects are analyzed and compared to historical glacier length records. Preindustrial fluctuations of the glaciers as far as observed or reconstructed, including their advance during the “Little Ice Age,” can be explained by internal variability in the climate system as represented by a GCM. However, fluctuations comparable to the present-day glacier retreat exceed any variation simulated by the GCM control experiments and must be caused by external forcing, with anthropogenic forcing being a likely candidate.

Ecological carrying capacity for intensive tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) cage aquaculture in a large hydroelectrical reservoir in Southeastern Brazil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Models of the Distribution of Persistent Organic Pollutants in the Marine Environment

Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) is a group of chemicals that are toxic, undergo long-range transport and accumulate in biota. Due to their persistency the distribution and recirculation in the environment often continues for a long period of time. Thereby they appear virtually everywhere within the biosphere, and poses a toxic stress to living organisms. In this thesis, attempts are made to contribute to the understanding of factors that influence the distribution of POPs with focus on processes in the marine environment. The bioavailability and the spatial distribution are central topics for the environmental risk management of POPs. In order to study these topics, various field studies were undertaken. To determine the bioavailable fraction of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs), polychlorinated naphthalenes (PCNs), and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) the aqueous dissolved phase were sampled and analysed. In the same samples, we also measured how much of these POPs were associated with suspended particles. Different models, which predicted the phase distribution of these POPs, were then evaluated. It was found that important water characteristics, which influenced the solid-water phase distribution of POPs, were particulate organic matter (POM), particulate soot (PSC), and dissolved organic matter (DOM). The bioavailable dissolved POP-phase in the water was lower when these sorbing phases were present. Furthermore, sediments were sampled and the spatial distribution of the POPs was examined. The results showed that the concentration of PCDD/Fs, and PCNs were better described using PSC- than using POM-content of the sediment. In parallel with these field studies, we synthesized knowledge of the processes affecting the distribution of POPs in a multimedia mass balance model. This model predicted concentrations of PCDD/Fs throughout our study area, the Grenlandsfjords in Norway, within factors of ten. This makes the model capable to validate the effect of suitable remedial actions in order to decrease the exposure of these POPs to biota in the Grenlandsfjords which was the aim of the project. Also, to evaluate the influence of eutrophication on the marine occurrence PCB data from the US Musselwatch and Benthic Surveillance Programs are examined in this thesis. The dry weight based concentrations of PCB in bivalves were found to correlate positively to the organic matter content of nearby sediments, and organic matter based concentrations of PCB in sediments were negatively correlated to the organic matter content of the sediment.

Protein and lipid binding parameters in rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) blood and liver fractions to extrapolate from an in vitro metabolic degradation assay to in vivo bioaccumulation potential of hydrophobic organic chemicals

Binding of hydrophobic chemicals to colloids such as proteins or lipids is difficult to measure using classical microdialysis methods due to low aqueous concentrations, adsorption to dialysis membranes and test vessels, and slow kinetics of equilibration. Here, we employed a three-phase partitioning system where silicone (polydimethylsiloxane, PDMS) serves as a third phase to determine partitioning between water and colloids and acts at the same time as a dosing device for hydrophobic chemicals. The applicability of this method was demonstrated with bovine serum albumin (BSA). Measured binding constants (K(BSAw)) for chlorpyrifos, methoxychlor, nonylphenol, and pyrene were in good agreement with an established quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR). A fifth compound, fluoxypyr-methyl-heptyl ester, was excluded from the analysis because of apparent abiotic degradation. The PDMS depletion method was then used to determine partition coefficients for test chemicals in rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) liver S9 fractions (K(S9w)) and blood plasma (K(bloodw)). Measured K(S9w) and K(bloodw) values were consistent with predictions obtained using a mass-balance model that employs the octanol-water partition coefficient (K(ow)) as a surrogate for lipid partitioning and K(BSAw) to represent protein binding. For each compound, K(bloodw) was substantially greater than K(S9w), primarily because blood contains more lipid than liver S9 fractions (1.84% of wet weight vs 0.051%). Measured liver S9 and blood plasma binding parameters were subsequently implemented in an in vitro to in vivo extrapolation model to link the in vitro liver S9 metabolic degradation assay to in vivo metabolism in fish. Apparent volumes of distribution (V(d)) calculated from the experimental data were similar to literature estimates. However, the calculated binding ratios (f(u)) used to relate in vitro metabolic clearance to clearance by the intact liver were 10 to 100 times lower than values used in previous modeling efforts. Bioconcentration factors (BCF) predicted using the experimental binding data were substantially higher than the predicted values obtained in earlier studies and correlated poorly with measured BCF values in fish. One possible explanation for this finding is that chemicals bound to proteins can desorb rapidly and thus contribute to metabolic turnover of the chemicals. This hypothesis remains to be investigated in future studies, ideally with chemicals of higher hydrophobicity.

Modeling contaminant behavior in Lake Superior : a comparison of PCBs, PBDEs, and mercury

A mass‐balance model for Lake Superior was applied to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), and mercury to determine the major routes of entry and the major mechanisms of loss from this ecosystem as well as the time required for each contaminant class to approach steady state. A two‐box model (water column, surface sediments) incorporating seasonally adjusted environmental parameters was used. Both numerical (forward Euler) and analytical solutions were employed and compared. For validation, the model was compared with current and historical concentrations and fluxes in the lake and sediments. Results for PCBs were similar to prior work showing that air‐water exchange is the most rapid input and loss process. The model indicates that mercury behaves similarly to a moderately‐chlorinated PCB, with air‐water exchange being a relatively rapid input and loss process. Modeled accumulation fluxes of PBDEs in sediments agreed with measured values reported in the literature. Wet deposition rates were about three times greater than dry particulate deposition rates for PBDEs. Gas deposition was an important process for tri‐ and tetra‐BDEs (BDEs 28 and 47), but not for higher‐brominated BDEs. Sediment burial was the dominant loss mechanism for most of the PBDE congeners while volatilization was still significant for tri‐ and tetra‐BDEs. Because volatilization is a relatively rapid loss process for both mercury and the most abundant PCBs (tri‐ through penta‐), the model predicts that similar times (from 2 ‐ 10 yr) are required for the compounds to approach steady state in the lake. The model predicts that if inputs of Hg(II) to the lake decrease in the future then concentrations of mercury in the lake will decrease at a rate similar to the historical decline in PCB concentrations following the ban on production and most uses in the U.S. In contrast, PBDEs are likely to respond more slowly if atmospheric concentrations are reduced in the future because loss by volatilization is a much slower process for PBDEs, leading to lesser overall loss rates for PBDEs in comparison to PCBs and mercury. Uncertainties in the chemical degradation rates and partitioning constants of PBDEs are the largest source of uncertainty in the modeled times to steady‐state for this class of chemicals. The modeled organic PBT loading rates are sensitive to uncertainties in scavenging efficiencies by rain and snow, dry deposition velocity, watershed runoff concentrations, and uncertainties in air‐water exchange such as the effect of atmospheric stability.

Modeling particulate organic matter diagenesis with SED2K

Diagenesis of particulate organic matter in lake sediments consumes and produces chemical species that have significant effects on water quality, e.g. oxygen and nitrate depletion and attendant mediation of nutrient and metal recycling. A mechanistic, mass balance model (SED2K) is applied here in quantifying the time course and magnitude of sediment response to reductions in depositional fluxes of organic matter. In applying the model, direct, site-specific measurements of the sedimentation and POM rates in Onondaga Lake are used, leaving only the diagenesis coefficient (solubilization) for estimation by fit to downcore POM profiles. Model calibration is constrained by the dual requirement that both POM profiles and the time series of efflux of the products of diagenesis must be matched. Simulations point to the existence of POM preservation processes at depth, a phenomenon that may enhance the timing and magnitude of lake recovery.

Reading Our Land Use Legacy in Groundwater: Nitrate Dynamics in the Judith River Watershed

Elevated nitrate in groundwater is common is agricultural areas where fertilizer has been added at high rates for decades. Within the Judith River Wastershed, high native soil fertility allowed for dryland wheat production without N fertilization until the 1980s, yet elevated nitrate levels were frequently observed in shallow aquifers. Dr. Stephanie Ewing presents results for soil, groundwater and surface water analyses from a hydrologically isolated strath terrace near Moccasin, MT. In context of this uniquely well constrained field setting, these observed data, along with land use history and a simple mass balance model, revel the long term development and perturbation of native soil fertility with cultivation.

Isotopic composition of water in fog, rain, throughfall and stemflow in the Monte Verde, Costa Rica

Fog deposition, precipitation, throughfall and stemflow were measured in a windward tropical montane cloud forest near Monteverde, Costa Rica, for a 65-day period during the dry season of 2003. Net fog deposition was measured directly using the eddy covariance (EC) method and it amounted to 1.2 ± 0.1 mm/day (mean ± standard error). Fog water deposition was 5-9% of incident rainfall for the entire period, which is at the low end of previously reported values. Stable isotope concentrations (d18O and d2H) were determined in a large number of samples of each water component. Mass balance-based estimates of fog deposition were 1.0 ± 0.3 and 5.0 ± 2.7 mm/day (mean ± SE) when d18O and d2H were used as tracer, respectively. Comparisons between direct fog deposition measurements and the results of the mass balance model using d18O as a tracer indicated that the latter might be a good tool to estimate fog deposition in the absence of direct measurement under many (but not all) conditions. At 506 mm, measured water inputs over the 65 days (fog plus rain) fell short by 46 mm compared to the canopy output of 552 mm (throughfall, stemflow and interception evaporation). This discrepancy is attributed to the underestimation of rainfall during conditions of high wind.

Geochemistry of planktonic foraminifera from DSDP sites in the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean

The lithium content of planktonic foraminiferal calcite has been determined to evaluate temporal variability of seawater Li concentrations over the past 116 m.y. Mean foraminiferal calcite lithium/calcium in each time interval is no more than 16% greater nor 25% less than the mean Li/Ca of all samples. Li/Ca minima are observed for samples from 50-60 m.y. and 80-90 m.y., with Li/Ca about 25% lower than in adjacent time intervals. At no time during the past 40 m.y does mean Li/Ca appear to be higher than that at present. Subject to the limitations imposed by sample coverage and diagenesis, a similar conclusion holds for the past 116 m.y. Coupled with an oceanic mass balance model for Li, these data suggest that: (1) oceanic Li concentrations and, therefore, high-temperature hydrothermal circulation fluxes during the past 40 m.y. (and perhaps the past 100 m.y.) have not been more than perhaps 30-40% greater than at present for intervals any longer than a million years at most, and (2) these fluxes were not a factor of two higher 100 m.y. ago. By inference, variations in oceanic crustal generation rates over these time periods are similarly limited. Decreases in hydrothermal circulation fluxes and crustal generation rates or fluctuations up to 20% in these rates of a few million years duration are not necessarily ruled out by the Li/Ca data. The lack of variability in Li/Ca over time is not unequivocal evidence that hydrothermal fluxes have not varied because the rates of removal processes may be linked to changes in input fluxes.

Temporal evolution of organic carbon and lipid content and derived SST of sediment core GIK23258-2, Norwegian Sea

Lipids are used for the evaluation of the different organic matter contributions in the north eastern Norwegian sea (M23258 site; 75ºN, 14ºE) over the last 15,000 years. Development of a mass balance model based on the down core quantification of the C37 alkenones, the odd carbon numbered n-alkanes (Aodd) and the unresolved complex mixture of hydrocarbons (UCM) has allowed three main organic matter inputs involving marine, continental and ancient reworked organic matter to be recognized. The model shows a good agreement between measured and reconstructed TOC values. Similarly, a strong parallelism is observed between predicted components such as marine TOC and carbonate content (CaCO3), which was determined independently. Representation of the model results within a time-scale based on 15 AMS-14C measurements shows that the main changes in organic matter constituents are coincident with the major climatic events of the last 15,000 a. Thus, the predominance of reworked organic matter is characteristic of Termination Ia (up to 70%), continental organic matter was dominant during the Bølling-Allerød (B-A) and Younger Dryas (YD) periods (about 85%) and a strong increase of marine organic matter occurred in the Holocene (between 50 and 75%). This agreement reflects the main hydrographic changes that determined the deposition of sedimentary materials during the period studied: ice-rafted detritus from the Barents continental platform, ice-melting waters from the Arctic fluvial system discharging into the Barents sea and dominance of north Atlantic currents, respectively. In this respect, the high-resolution down core record resulting from the mass balance and lipid measurements allows the identification of millennial-scale events such as the increase of reworked organic matter at the final retreat of the Barents ice sheet at the end of the deglaciation period (Termination Ib).

Phosphate d18O pore-water profiles of sediment core GeoB11807-2 and GeoB11804-4

Phosphorus cycling in the ocean is influenced by biological and geochemical processes that are reflected in the oxygen isotope signature of dissolved inorganic phosphate (Pi). Extending the Pi oxygen isotope record from the water column into the seabed is difficult due to low Pi concentrations and small amounts of marine porewaters available for analysis. We obtained porewater profiles of Pi oxygen isotopes using a refined protocol based on the original micro-extraction designed by Colman (2002). This refined and customized method allows the conversion of ultra-low quantities (0.5 - 1 µmol) of porewater Pi to silver phosphate (Ag3PO4) for routine analysis by mass spectrometry. A combination of magnesium hydroxide co-precipitation with ion exchange resin treatment steps is used to remove dissolved organic matter, anions, and cations from the sample before precipitating Ag3PO4. Samples as low as 200 µg were analyzed in a continuous flow isotope ratio mass spectrometer setup. Tests with external and laboratory internal standards validated the preservation of the original phosphate oxygen isotope signature (d18OP) during micro extraction. Porewater data on d18OP has been obtained from two sediment cores of the Moroccan margin. The d18OP values are in a range of +19.49 to +27.30 per mill. We apply a simple isotope mass balance model to disentangle processes contributing to benthic P cycling and find evidence for Pi regeneration outbalancing microbial demand in the upper sediment layers. This highlights the great potential of using d18OP to study microbial processes in the subseafloor and at the sediment water interface.

Projected Reorganization of Florida Bay Seagrass Communities in Response to the Increased Freshwater Inflow of Everglades Restoration

Historic changes in water-use management in the Florida Everglades have caused the quantity of freshwater inflow to Florida Bay to decline by approximately 60% while altering its timing and spatial distribution. Two consequences have been (1) increased salinity throughout the bay, including occurrences of hypersalinity, coupled with a decrease in salinity variability, and (2) change in benthic habitat structure. Restoration goals have been proposed to return the salinity climates (salinity and its variability) of Florida Bay to more estuarine conditions through changes in upstream water management, thereby returning seagrass species cover to a more historic state. To assess the potential for meeting those goals, we used two modeling approaches and long-term monitoring data. First, we applied the hydrological mass balance model FATHOM to predict salinity climate changes in sub-basins throughout the bay in response to a broad range of freshwater inflow from the Everglades. Second, because seagrass species exhibit different sensitivities to salinity climates, we used the FATHOM-modeled salinity climates as input to a statistical discriminant function model that associates eight seagrass community types with water quality variables including salinity, salinity variability, total organic carbon, total phosphorus, nitrate, and ammonium, as well as sediment depth and light reaching the benthos. Salinity climates in the western sub-basins bordering the Gulf of Mexico were insensitive to even the largest (5-fold) modeled increases in freshwater inflow. However, the north, northeastern, and eastern sub-basins were highly sensitive to freshwater inflow and responded to comparatively small increases with decreased salinity and increased salinity variability. The discriminant function model predicted increased occurrences ofHalodule wrightii communities and decreased occurrences of Thalassia testudinum communities in response to the more estuarine salinity climates. The shift in community composition represents a return to the historically observed state and suggests that restoration goals for Florida Bay can be achieved through restoration of freshwater inflow from the Everglades.