Using common features to understand the behavior of metal-commodity prices and forecast them at different horizons

The objective of this article is to study (understand and forecast) spot metal price levels and changes at monthly, quarterly, and annual frequencies. Data consists of metal-commodity prices at a monthly and quarterly frequencies from 1957 to 2012, extracted from the IFS, and annual data, provided from 1900-2010 by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). We also employ the (relatively large) list of co-variates used in Welch and Goyal (2008) and in Hong and Yogo (2009). We investigate short- and long-run comovement by applying the techniques and the tests proposed in the common-feature literature. One of the main contributions of this paper is to understand the short-run dynamics of metal prices. We show theoretically that there must be a positive correlation between metal-price variation and industrial-production variation if metal supply is held fixed in the short run when demand is optimally chosen taking into account optimal production for the industrial sector. This is simply a consequence of the derived-demand model for cost-minimizing firms. Our empirical evidence fully supports this theoretical result, with overwhelming evidence that cycles in metal prices are synchronized with those in industrial production. This evidence is stronger regarding the global economy but holds as well for the U.S. economy to a lesser degree. Regarding out-of-sample forecasts, our main contribution is to show the benefits of forecast-combination techniques, which outperform individual-model forecasts - including the random-walk model. We use a variety of models (linear and non-linear, single equation and multivariate) and a variety of co-variates and functional forms to forecast the returns and prices of metal commodities. Using a large number of models (N large) and a large number of time periods (T large), we apply the techniques put forth by the common-feature literature on forecast combinations. Empirically, we show that models incorporating (short-run) common-cycle restrictions perform better than unrestricted models, with an important role for industrial production as a predictor for metal-price variation.

Limites e evolução geodinâmica do Sistema Jaguaribeano, Província Borborema, Nordeste do Brasil

The studied area is geologically located in the Northern Domain of the Borborema Province (Northeast Brazil), limited to the south by the Patos shear zone. Terranes of the Jaguaribeano system are dominant, flanked by the Piranhas (E and S sides) and Central Ceará (NE side) terranes. Its basement comprises gneiss -migmatite terrains of Paleoproterozoic to Archean age (2.6 to 1.9 Ga old), overprinted by neoproterozoic to cambrian tectonotherma l events. Narrow supracrustal belts ( schist belts) display a 1.6 to 1.8 Ga age, as shown by whole - rock Rb-Sr and zircon U-Pb and Pb/Pb dates in acid metavolcanics which dominate in the lower section of these sequences, and in coeval metaplutonics (granitic augen gneisses). From the stratigraphic point of view, three Staterian belts are recognized: 1. Orós Belt - made up by the Orós Group, subdivided in the Santarém (predominantly pure to impure quartzites, micaschists and metacarbonates) and Campo Alegre (metandesites, metabasalts, metarhyolites and metarhyodacites, interlayered with metatuffs and metasediments) formations, and by the Serra do Deserto Magmatic Suite (granitic augen gneisses). 2. Jaguaribe Belt - its lithostratigrahic-lithodemic framework is similar to the one of the Orós Belt, however with a greater expression of the volcano -plutonic components (Campo Alegre Formation and Serra do Deserto Magmatic Suite). The Peixe Gordo Sequence, separately described, is also related to this belt and contain s metasedimentary, metavolcanic (with subordinated volcanoclastics) and metaplutonic units. The first one correlated to the Orós Group and the latter the Serra do Deserto Magmatic Suite. 3. Western Potiguar Belt - represented by the Serra de São José Gro up, subdivided in the Catolezinho (biotite -amphibole gneisses with intercalations of metacarbonates, calcsilicate rocks, amphibolites and quartzite beds to the top) and Minhuins (quartzites, micaschists, metaconglomerates, calcsilicate rocks, acid to the b asic metavolcanics and metatuffs) formations. Its late Paleoproterozoic (Staterian) age was established by a Pb/Pb date on zircons from a granitic orthogneiss of the Catolezinho Formation. The petrographic characteristics and sedimentary structures of the Santarém Formation of the Orós Group point to deltaic to shallow marine depositional systems, overlain by deep water deposits (turbidites). The geodynamic setting of this region encompassed a large depositional basin, probably extending to the east of the Portalegre shear zone and west of the Senador Pompeu shear zone, with possible equivalents in the Jucurutu Formation of the Seridó Belt and in the Ceará Group of central Ceará. The Arneiróz Belt, west Ceará, displays some stratigraphic features and granito ids geochemically akin to the ones of the Orós Belt. The evolutionary setting started with an extensional phase which was more active in the eastern part of this domain (Western Potiguar and part of the Jaguaribe belts), where the rudite and psamite sedime ntation relates to a fluviatile rift environment which evolved to a prograding deltaic system to the west (Orós Group). The basaltic andesitic and rhyolitic volcanics were associated to this extensional phase. During this magmatic event, acid magmas also crystallized at plutonic depths. The Orós Group illustrates the environmental conditions in the western part of this domain. Later on, after a large time gap (1.6 to 1.1 Ga), the region was subjected to an extensional deformational episode marked by 900 Ma old (Sm-Nd data) basic rocks, possibly in connection with the deposition of the Cachoeirinha Group south of the Patos shear zone. In the 800 to 500 Ma age interval, the region was affected by important deformational and metamorphic events coupled with in trusion of granitic rocks of variable size (dykes to batholiths), related to the Brasiliano/Pan -African geotectonic cycle. These events produced structural blocks which differentiate, one from the other, according to the importance of anatectic mobilizatio n, proportion of high-grade supracrustals and the amount of neoproterozoic -cambrian granitoid intrusions. On this basis, a large portion of the Jaguaretama Block/Terrane is relatively well preserved from this late overprint. The border belts of the Jagua retama Block (Western Potiguar and Arneiroz) display kyanite-bearing (medium pressure) mineral associations, while in the inner part of the block there is a north-south metamorphic zoning marked by staurolite or sillimanite peak metamorphic conditions. Regarding the deformations of the Staterian supracrustal rocks, second and third phases were the most important, diagnosed as having developed in a progressive tectonic process. In the general, more vigorous conditions of PT are related to the interval tardi - phase 2 early-phase 3, whose radiometric ages and regional structuring indicators places it in the Brasiliano/Pan-African Cycle. In the Staterian geodynamic setting of Brazilian Platform , these sequences are correlated to the lower Espinhaço Supergroup (p.ex., Rio dos Remédios and Paraguaçu groups, a paleproterozoic rift system in the São Francisco Craton), the Araí and Serra da Mesa groups (north of Goiás, in the so -called Goiás Central Massif), and the Uatumã Group (in the Amazonian Craton). Granitic ( augen gneisses) plutonics are also known from these areas, as for example the A-type granites intrusive in the Araí and Serra da Mesa groups, dated at 1.77 Ga. Gravimetric and geological data place the limits of the Jaguaribeano System (terranes) along the Senador Pompeu Shear Zone (western border) and the Portalegre- Farias Brito shear zone (eastern and southern). However, the same data area not conclusive as regards the interpretation of those structures as suture of the terrane docking process. The main features of those shear zones and of involved lothological associations, appear to favour an intracontinental transpressional -transcurrent regime, during Neoproterozoic-Cambrian times, marking discontinuities along which different crustal blocks were laterally dispersed. Inside of this orogenic system and according to the magnetic data (total field map), the most important terrane boundary appears to be the Jaguaribe shear zone. The geochronological data, on some tectonostratigraphic associations (partly represented by the Ceará and Jucurutu groups), still at a preliminary level, besides the lack of granitic zonation and other petrotectonic criteria, do not allow to propose tectonic terrane assembly diagrams for the studied area

Estruturação da seqüência vulcano-sedimentar Rio Mata Cavalo (Morro do Pilar, MG, Brasil) baseada na análise qualitativa de dados geofísicos

Geofísica terrestre (magnetometria e radiometria) foi utilizada como ferramenta de apoio ao mapeamento geológico em uma área de pesquisa mineral da Companhia Mineradora de Minas Gerais (COMIG), denominada Alvo Bueiro, localizada a sudeste da cidade de Morro do Pilar, na Serra do Espinhaço, Estado de Minas Gerais. A integração de informações de geologia de superfície com os dados geofísicos correspondentes permitiu definir quatro zonas: A, B, C e D. A Zona A, caracterizada por altos valores de susceptibilidade magnética e baixos valores de radiometria, é composta por itabiritos do Grupo Serra da Serpentina. A Zona B, pertencente ao mesmo grupo, é constituída por filitos cinza e metassiltitos e mostra baixa susceptibilidade magnética; interrupções nas linhas de contorno foram interpretadas como decorrentes de falhas de empurrão. A Zona C, relacionada à Seqüência Vulcano-Sedimentar Rio Mata Cavalo, é caracterizada por uma expressiva anomalia do campo magnético total em xistos máficos e ultramáficos com lentes de formações ferríferas e filitos carbonosos negros; esta zona hospeda as mais importantes anomalias geoquímicas de ouro conhecidas na área em estudo. A Zona D, correspondente a ortognaisses cisalhados do Complexo Dona Rita, mostra os mais elevados valores de radiometria do Alvo Bueiro e baixas respostas magnéticas.

Mapeamento do contorno estrutural do embasamento da bacia sedimentar de Curitiba - PR

The sedimentary Curitiba basin is located in the Central-Southern part of the first Parananense plateau, and comprises Curitiba (PR), and part of the neighbour Municipalities (fig.1). It is supposed to be of Plio-Pleistocene age. It has a shallow sedimentary fulfillment, represented by the Guabirotuba formation (BIGARELLA and SALAMUNI, 1962) which is dristributed over a large area of about 3.000km2. The internal geometry, not entirely known yet, is actually object of detailed research, that shows its geological evolution to Cenozoic tectonic movements. For the purpose of this study the definition of the structural contour of the basement and their depo-centers is fundamental. This paper presents the results of the integration of surface and subsurface data, processed by statistical methods, which allowed a more precise definition of the morphostructural framework of the basement. For the analysis of the geological spacial data, specific softwares were used for statistical processing for trend surfaces analysis. The data used in this study are of following types: a) drilling logs for ground water; b) description of surface points of geological maps (CRPM, 1977); c) description of points of geotechnical drillings and down geological survey. The data of 223 drilling logs for ground water were selected out of 770 wells. The description files of 700 outcrops, as well as planialtimetric field data, were used for the localization of the basement outcrop. Thus, a matrix with five columns was set up: utm E-W (x) and utm N-S (y); surface altitude (z); altimetric cote of the contact between sedimentary rocks and the basement (k); isopachs (l). For the study of the basement limits, the analysis of surface trends of 2(nd) and 3(rd) degree polinomial for the altimetric data (figs. 2 and 3) were used. For the residuals the method of the inverse of the square of the distance (fig.4) was used. The adjustments and the explanations of the surfaces were made with the aid of multiple linear regressions. The analysis of 3rd degree polinomial trend surface (fig.3) confirmed that the basement tends to be more exposed towards NNW-SSE explaining better the data trend through an ellipse, which striking NE-SW and dipping SW axis coincides with the trough of the basin observed in the trending surface of the basement. The performed analysis and the respective images offer a good degree of certainty of the geometric model of the Curitiba Basin and of the morphostructure of its basement. The surface trend allows to sketch with a greater degree of confidence the structural contour of the topgraphic surface (figs. 5 and 6) and of the basement (figs. 7 and 8), as well as the delimitation of intermediate structural heights, which were responsible for isolated and assymmetric depocenters. These details are shown in the map of figures 9 and 10. Thus, the Curitiba Basin is made up by a structural trough stretching NE-SW, with maximum preserved depths of about 80m, which are separated by heights and depocenters striking NW-SE (fig. 11). These structural features seems to have been controlled by tectonic reactivation during the Tertiary (HASUI, 1990) and which younger dissection was conditioned by neotectonic processes (SALAMUNI and EBERT, 1994).

Diques clásticos na formação corumbataí (p) no nordeste da bacia do paraná, SP: Análise sistemática e significações estratigráficas, sedimentológicas e tectônicas

This paper aims to present the results of systematic survey on clastic dykes in the Corumbataí Formation (Permian), in the northeast region of the State of São Paulo. Besides this, the paper analyses genetic aspects of those features as well as their stratigraphic and sedimentologic implications in terms of geologic evolution of the northeastern Paraná Sedimentary Basin during Permian times. The field works had been developed in 3 main Corumbataí Formation outcrops (2 road cuts and a quarry) supposed to show the most important clastic dikes occurrences in the studied area. Basically, the sedimentary intrusions are formed by fine sand or silt size particles and had penetrated host rocks as near-vertical, centimeter thick, dykes (most common form) or as horizontal sheets, forming clastic sills (subsidiary form), both with variable geometric forms and dimensions. A lot of dyke walls show undulations suggesting pre-diagenetic clastic intrusions, probably near the ancient depositional surface. Almost all intrusions occur in the superior third portion of the Corumbataí Formation and some similar features seem to appear in the adjoining superposed Pirambóia Formation base. In this article the authors defend a seismic origin hypothesis for the clastic intrusions. It is important to mention that clastic intrusions tend to occur linked to expressive seismic events, with magnitude upper to 5. The analysis of isopach maps of the Permian and Mesozoic units of the Paraná Sedimentary Basin in the study area suggests a depositional system changing, from epicontinental sea conditions to shallow platform and, finally, to coastal deserts. Probably, this environmental change was driven by regional uplift accompanied by seismic events. It is possible that ancient seismicity triggered liquefaction processes and the resulting clastic intrusions. In this sense, those clastic features might be properly namedseismites.

Influência do arcabouço hidroestratigráfico nas ocorrências de arsênio em águas subterrâneas ao longo do corredor termal do rio Uruguai (Argentina - Brasil - Uruguai)

The Thermal Corridor of Uruguay River is located in the triple border of Argentine, Brazil and Uruguay, and shows an intense economic thermal tourism activity, mainly based on groundwaters from Guarani Aquifer System (GAS). Recent studies have pointed out the occurrence of high concentrations of arsenic (>10 μg/L) in GAS groundwater in this area. The complex geological and hydrogeological framework in the area is associated to the Paraná Basin geological evolution south of the Assuncion-Rio Grande Arch; it encompass paleozoic marine sequences and continental sequences permian/eotriassic to mesozoic in age, which are covered by basaltic lavas of Serra Geral Formation. Iron oxide coatings have been described in sandstones of Buena Vista and Sanga do Cabral formations, which underlie GAS units. Arsenic occurrence is associated to sodium bicarbonate groundwater with pH values over 8.0. Arsenic is released to groundwater by desorption from iron oxides/hydroxides, as result of the higher pH of these waters, indicating that arsenic is released from the units that underlie GAS units. Increase in chromium and uranium concentrations are also related to high pH groundwaters, thus indicating special care on using groundwater from this region.

Estimativa de parâmetros estruturais de áreas de produção de eucalipto através de imagens de satélite na região de Botucatu /SP

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

Aplicação do gravímetro de poço em problemas de avaliação de formação no Brasil

No período de outubro a novembro de 1990, foi realizado na Bacia Sergipe-Alagoas o primeiro levantamento gravimétrico de poço no Brasil, através de um programa com a participação da Universidade Federal do Pará, a PETROBRÁS e o U.S.G.S. (United States Geological Survey). Este levantamento teve como objetivos o teste do equipamento, a resposta dos perfis gravimétricos em relação aos problemas encontrados nas bacias sedimentares brasileiras e a comparação com os dados de densidade obtidos com o perfil de densidade compensada (CDL). Os levantamentos foram realizados em três poços e os dados obtidos passaram por um processo de redução, onde os valores foram transformados para miligals e corrigidos dos efeitos de maré, deriva e terreno, para obter as densidades preliminares. Porém, a região onde foram realizados os levantamentos apresenta além do embasamento muito raso, uma seqüência evaporítica com contraste de densidade grande em relação ao resto do pacote sedimentar, gerando gradientes verticais anômalos. Estes efeitos foram então corrigidos e obtidos os valores finais de densidade. Com base em uma caracterização litológica prévia, os valores de densidade foram então comparados com o perfil CDL. Verificou-se a boa qualidade dos dados, o que permitiu o cálculo de valores de porosidade, mostrando assim possíveis intervalos de interesse à exploração de hidrocarbonetos, tanto no embasamento, reservatório mais importante, quanto no intervalo sedimentar.

Avaliação preliminar do emprego de arenito zeolítico da região nordeste do Brasil como material pozolânico para cimento Portland

As zeolitas possuem atividade pozolânica normalmente sem a necessidade de ativação térmica, por isto têm sido empregadas na produção de cimento e concreto hidráulicos desde a época do império romano. Hoje em dia são utilizadas na fabricação do cimento Portland através da substituição do clinquer em percentuais que variam entre 5 e 20%, dependendo da reatividade e da finura da zeólita. Em razão disto, são muito importantes do ponto de vista econômico e ambiental, principalmente quando não necessitam de tratamento térmico para adquirirem caráter pozolânico satisfatório, porque reduzem significativamente a energia de produção do clinquer e a liberação de CO₂ proveniente tanto da descarbonatação da calcita como da combustão de combustíveis fósseis. Contudo, dados sobre reservas de zeólitas naturais são escassos e imprecisos. No Brasil, não existe conhecimento sobre depósitos naturais de zeólitas que possam ser explorados comercialmente. No nordeste do Brasil existe a ocorrência de zeolitas sedimentares relacionadas a arenitos descoberta nos anos 2000. Estes arenitos são constituídos de quartzo, argilominerais e zeolitas naturais (estilbita). O objetivo geral desse trabalho foi avaliar se esta zeólita natural presente no arenito possui atividade pozolânica satisfatória para ser empregada como adição mineral em cimentos Portland. No programa experimental o arenito zeolítico passou por beneficiamento através da remoção, por peneiramento, do quartzo e outros minerais inertes, de modo a concentrar a zeólita estilbita e com isto verificar as propriedades pozolânicas deste mineral. No estudo experimental foram empregadas as técnicas de difração de raios X, calorimetria, ensaios químicos e de determinação da atividade pozolânica em argamassas de cal hidratada e cimento Portland. Os resultados mostraram que o arenito zeolítico acelerou a hidratação do cimento Portland devido a extrema finura do material. O arenito apresentou atividade pozolânica, sendo a estilbita responsável por este comportamento. Entretanto, a reatividade foi ligeiramente inferior ao mínimo exigido para ser empregado em escala industrial como pozolana. Estudos complementares são necessários para averiguar se o tratamento térmico entre 300 °C e 500 °C pode aumentar a atividade pozolânica do arenito devido a destruição da estrutura cristalina tanto da estilbita quanto da esmectita presente no arenito.

Cimentos Portland aditivados com arenito zeolítico com propriedades pozolânicas

O uso adequado de pozolanas possibilita a produção de cimentos especiais, de menor custo de fabricação e de maior durabilidade que os correspondentes sem adição. O emprego dessas adições minerais possibilita ganhos significativos em termos de produtividade e uma extensão da vida útil dos equipamentos de produção e da própria jazida de calcário, também ajudando na diminuição de CO2 lançado na atmosfera. As zeólitas têm sido utilizadas como material pozolânico em misturas com "terras vulcânicas" e água nas construções desde o tempo do antigo Império Romano. Nos dias atuais, existem muitas discussões envolvendo reatividade pozolânica das zeólitas naturais na incorporação dos cimentos Portland. Na Região nordeste do Brasil, zeólitas sedimentares relacionadas a arenitos da Bacia do Parnaíba foram descobertas pelo Serviço Geológico do Brasil nos anos 2000. Estes arenitos são constituídos em sua maioria de quartzo, zeólitas naturais (estilbita) e argilominerais (esmectita). Estudos preliminares constataram que este arenito pode ser empregado como material pozolânico em sistemas a base de cimento Portland, desde que o material seja peneirado para remoção do quartzo e ativado termicamente, uma vez que a estilbita é uma zeólita de baixa atividade pozolânica. O objetivo geral desse trabalho foi determinar qual proporção de arenito zeolítico ativado termicamente proporciona melhores propriedades mineralógicas e mecânicas ao cimento Portland. No programa experimental empregou-se o arenito zeolítico passante na peneira 200# e calcinado à temperatura de 500ºC. A análise química das amostras foi realizada por espectroscopia de fluorescência de raios-x e a caracterização mineralógica por difração de raios-x e análise termogravimétrica e termodiferencial. O comportamento da hidratação dos cimentos foi avaliado através de calorimetria de condução, difratometria de raio-X e análises termodiferencial e termogravimétricas. Para avaliação da atividade pozolânica foi adotado um ensaio mecânico de resistência à compressão em argamassas cimento Portland (CP I -S) e areia, com percentuais de substituição de cimento por arenito de 10, 20 e 30%. Os resultados mostraram que o arenito zeolítico calcinado com a percentual de substituição de 10% proporcionou às argamassas melhor resultado tem termos de resistência à compressão simples, contudo estudos mais aprofundados de durabilidade e a idades mais avançadas podem indicar que teores mais elevados do arenito zeolítico podem também ser apropriados para a produção de concretos, principalmente em obras de infraestrutura como barragens, canais, entre outras.

Fipronil e produtos de degradação: adaptação de método analítico e caracterização de amostras de água, solo e sedimento da Bacia Hidrográfica do Turvo/Grande

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Homogeneity of the geochemical reference material BRP-1 (paranábasin basalt) and assessment of minimum mass

Reference materials (RM) are required for quantitative analyses and their successful use is associated with the degree of homogeneity, and the traceability and confidence limits of the values established by characterisation. During the production of a RM, the chemical characterisation can only commence after it has been demonstrated that the material has the required level of homogeneity. Here we describe the preparation of BRP-1, a proposed geochemical reference material, and the results of the tests to evaluate its degree of homogeneity between and within bottles. BRP-1 is the first of two geochemical RM being produced by Brazilian institutions in collaboration with the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and the International Association of Geoanalysts (IAG). Two test portions of twenty bottles of BRP-1 were analysed by wavelength dispersive-XRF spectrometry and major, minor and eighteen trace elements were determined. The results show that for most of the investigated elements, the units of BRP-1 were homogeneous at conditions approximately three times more rigorous than those strived for by the test of sufficient homogeneity. Furthermore, the within bottle homogeneity of BRP-1 was evaluated using small beam (1 mm(2)) synchrotron radiation XRF spectrometry and, for comparison, the USGS reference materials BCR-2 and GSP-2 were also evaluated. From our data, it has been possible to assign representative minimum masses for some major constituents (1 mg) and for some trace elements (1-13 mg), except Zr in GSP-2, for which test portions of 74 mg are recommended.

Características químico-mineralógicas e cerâmicas da matéria-prima utilizada pelo polo cerâmico de Rio Verde de Mato Grosso, MG

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Simulation of Ground-Water Flow in the Cedar River Alluvial Aquifer Flow System, Cedar Rapids, Iowa Scientific

The Cedar River alluvial aquifer is the primary source of municipal water in the Cedar Rapids, Iowa, area. Since 1992, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the City of Cedar Rapids, has investigated the hydrogeology and water quality of the Cedar River alluvial aquifer. This report describes a detailed analysis of the ground-water flow system in the alluvial aquifer, particularly near well field areas. The ground-water flow system in the Cedar Rapids area consists of two main components, the unconsolidated Quaternary deposits and the underlying carbonate bedrock that has a variable fracture density. Quaternary deposits consist of eolian sand, loess, alluvium, and glacial till. Devonian and Silurian bedrock aquifers overlie the Maquoketa Shale (Formation) of Ordovician age, a regional confining unit. Ground-water and surface-water data were collected during the study to better define the hydrogeology of the Cedar River alluvial aquifer and Devonian and Silurian aquifers. Stream stage and discharge, ground-water levels, and estimates of aquifer hydraulic properties were used to develop a conceptual ground-water flow model and to construct and calibrate a model of the flow system. This model was used to quantify the movement of water between the various components of the alluvial aquifer flow system and provide an improved understanding of the hydrology of the alluvial aquifer.

Hydrogeologic Setting and Ground-Water Flow Simulations of the Eastern High Plains Regional Study Area, Nebraska

The transport of anthropogenic and natural contaminants to public-supply wells was evaluated in a part of the High Plains aquifer near York, Nebraska, as part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment Program. The aquifer in the Eastern High Plains regional study area is composed of Quaternary alluvial deposits typical of the High Plains aquifer in eastern Nebraska and Kansas, is an important water source for agricultural irrigation and public water supply, and is susceptible and vulnerable to contamination. A six-layer, steady-state ground-water flow model of the High Plains aquifer near York, Nebraska, was constructed and calibrated to average conditions for the time period from 1997 to 2001. The calibrated model and advective particle-tracking simulations were used to compute areas contributing recharge and travel times from recharge areas to selected public-supply wells. Model results indicate recharge from agricultural irrigation return flow and precipitation (about 89 percent of inflow) provides most of the ground-water inflow, whereas the majority of ground-water discharge is to pumping wells (about 78 percent of outflow). Particle-tracking results indicate areas contributing recharge to public-supply wells extend northwest because of the natural ground-water gradient from the northwest to the southeast across the study area. Particle-tracking simulations indicate most ground-water travel times from areas contributing recharge range from 20 to more than 100 years but that some ground water, especially that in the lower confined unit, originates at the upgradient model boundary instead of at the water table in the study area and has travel times of thousands of years.