Short, medium and long term load forecasting model and virtual load forecaster based on radial basis neural networks

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) can be easily applied to short-term load forecasting (STLF) models for electric power distribution applications. However, they are not typically used in medium and long term load forecasting (MLTLF) electric power models because of the difficulties associated with collecting and processing the necessary data. Virtual instrument (VI) techniques can be applied to electric power load forecasting but this is rarely reported in the literature. In this paper, we investigate the modelling and design of a VI for short, medium and long term load forecasting using ANNs. Three ANN models were built for STLF of electric power. These networks were trained using historical load data and also considering weather data which is known to have a significant affect of the use of electric power (such as wind speed, precipitation, atmospheric pressure, temperature and humidity). In order to do this a V-shape temperature processing model is proposed. With regards MLTLF, a model was developed using radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN). Results indicate that the forecasting model based on the RBFNN has a high accuracy and stability. Finally, a virtual load forecaster which integrates the VI and the RBFNN is presented.

Micro-environmental change as a trigger for granite decay in offshore Irish lighthouses: implications for the long-term preservation of operational historic buildings.

Following automation of lighthouses around the coastline of Ireland, reports of accelerated deterioration of interior granite stonework have increased significantly with an associated deterioration in the historic structure and rise in related maintenance costs. Decay of granite stone- work primarily occurs through granular disintegration with the effective grusification of granite surfaces. A decay gradient exists within the towers whereby the condition of granite in the lower levels is much worse than elsewhere. The lower tower levels are also regions with highest rela- tive humidity values and greatest salt concentrations. Data indicate that post-automation decay may have been trig- gered by a change in micro-environmental conditions within the towers associated with increased episodes of condensation on stone surfaces. This in turn appears to have facilitated deposition and accumulation of hygro- scopic salts (e.g. NaCl) giving rise to widespread evidence of deliquescence in the lower tower levels. Evidence indicates that the main factors contributing to accelerated deterioration of interior granite stonework are changes in micro-environmental conditions, salt weathering, chemical weathering through the corrosive effect of strongly alkaline conditions on alumino-silicate minerals within the granite and finally, the mica-rich characteristics of the granite itself which increases its structural and chemical susceptibility to subaerial weathering processes by creating points of weakness within the granite. This case study demonstrates how seemingly minor changes in micro-environmental conditions can unintentionally trigger the rapid and extensive deterioration of a previously stable rock type and threaten the long-term future of nationally iconic opera- tional historic structures.

Wear paths produced by individual hip-replacement patients— A large-scale, long-term follow-up study

Wear particle accumulation is one of the main contributors to osteolysis and implant failure in hip replacements. Altered kinematics produce significant differences in wear rates of hip replacements in simulator studies due to varying degrees of multidirectional motion. Gait analysis data from 153 hip-replacement patients 10-years post-operation were used to model two- and three-dimensional wear paths for each patient. Wear paths were quantified in two dimensions using aspect ratios and in three dimensions using the surface areas of the wear paths, with wear-path surface area correlating poorly with aspect ratio. The average aspect ratio of the patients wear paths was 3.97 (standard deviation ¼ 1.38), ranging from 2.13 to 10.86. Sixty percent of patients displayed aspect ratios between 2.50 and 3.99. However, 13% of patients displayed wear paths with aspect ratios 45.5, which indicates reduced multidirectional motion. The majority of total hip replacement (THR) patients display gait kinematics which produce multidirectional wear paths, but a significant minority display more linear paths.

Long-term return reversals-Value and growth or tax? UK evidence

This paper examines (i) whether value-growth characteristics have more power than past performance in predicting return reversals; and (ii) whether typical rational behaviour such as incentives to delay paying capital gain taxes can better explain long-term reversals than past performance. We find that value-growth characteristics generally provide better explanations for long-term stock returns than past performance. The evidence also shows that winners identified by capital gains dominate past performance winners in predicting reversals in the cross-sectional comparison. However, in the time-series analysis, when returns on capital gain winners are adjusted by the Fama and French (1996) risk factors, the predictive power of capital gain winners disappears. Our results show that capital gain winners are heavily featured as growth stocks. Return reversals in capital gain winners potentially reflect market price corrections for growth stocks. We conclude that investors’ incentives to delay paying capital gain taxes cannot fully rationalise long-term reversals in the UK market. Our results also imply that the long-term return pattern potentially reflects a mixture of investor rational and irrational behaviour.

Effects of Interface Conditions and Long-Term Stability of Passive Intermodulation Response in Printed Lines

An experimental investigation of the effect of conductor-to-substrate interface on distributed passive intermodulation (PIM) generation in printed microstrip lines has been undertaken using the custom-designed microwave laminates with removed surface bonding layers and with the commercial adhesion promotion applied to the conductor underside. The study of long-term stability of PIM performance of the printed circuits is reported for the first time. The comprehensive measurement results, observations of the selfimprovement of the PIM performance and the effect of panel bending on PIM generation in printed boards with different finishing are presented. A consistent physical interpretation of the observed phenomena is proposed. The results of this study provide new important considerations for the design and characterisation of low-PIM printed circuits.

Long-term occlusal and soft-tissue profile outcomes after treatment of Class II Division 1 malocclusion with fixed appliances

Introduction: Our objective was to determine which factors were predictive of good long-term outcomes after fixed appliance treatment of Class II Division 1 malocclusion. Methods: Two hundred seven patients with Class II Division 1 malocclusion were examined in early adulthood at a mean of 4.6 years after treatment with fixed appliances. The peer assessment rating index was used to evaluate dental alignment and occlusal relationships. The soft-tissue profile was assessed with the Holdaway angle. Results: Logistic regression identified 3 pretreatment variables that were predictive of a good facial profile (Holdaway angle) at recall: the lower lip to E-plane distance (P