Handling of Uncertainty in Life Cycle Inventory by Correlated Multivariate Lognormal Distributions: Application to the Design of Supply Chain Networks

Poster presented in the 24th European Symposium on Computer Aided Process Engineering (ESCAPE 24), Budapest, Hungary, June 15-18, 2014.

Handling of Uncertainty in Life Cycle Inventory by Correlated Multivariate Lognormal Distributions: Application to the Design of Supply Chain Networks

In this work, we analyze the effect of incorporating life cycle inventory (LCI) uncertainty on the multi-objective optimization of chemical supply chains (SC) considering simultaneously their economic and environmental performance. To this end, we present a stochastic multi-scenario mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) coupled with a two-step transformation scenario generation algorithm with the unique feature of providing scenarios where the LCI random variables are correlated and each one of them has the desired lognormal marginal distribution. The environmental performance is quantified following life cycle assessment (LCA) principles, which are represented in the model formulation through standard algebraic equations. The capabilities of our approach are illustrated through a case study of a petrochemical supply chain. We show that the stochastic solution improves the economic performance of the SC in comparison with the deterministic one at any level of the environmental impact, and moreover the correlation among environmental burdens provides more realistic scenarios for the decision making process.

Enseñando a programar: un camino directo para desarrollar el pensamiento computacional

Está ampliamente aceptado que es fundamental desarrollar la habilidad de resolver problemas. El pensamiento computacional se basa en resolver problemas haciendo uso de conceptos fundamentales de la informática. Nada mejor para desarrollar la habilidad de resolver problemas usando conceptos informáticos que una asignatura de introducción a la programación. Este trabajo presenta nuestras reflexiones acerca de cómo iniciar a un estudiante en el campo de la programación de computadores. El trabajo no detalla los contenidos a impartir, sino que se centra en aspectos metodológicos, con la inclusión de experiencias y ejemplos concretos, a la vez que generales, extensibles a cualquier enseñanza de programación. En general, aunque se van desarrollado lenguajes cada vez más cercanos al lenguaje humano, la programación de ordenadores utilizando lenguajes formales no es una materia intuitiva y de fácil comprensión por parte de los estudiantes. A la persona que ya sabe programar le parece una tarea sencilla, pero al neófito no. Es más, dominar el arte de la programación es complejo. Por esta razón es indispensable utilizar todas las técnicas y herramientas posibles que faciliten dicha labor.

An analog input-output system for the ILLIAC II.

Issued also as thesis, University of Illinois.

A feasibility conjecture related to the Hirsch conjecture.

Photocopy. [Washington?] Clearinghouse for Federal Scientific and Technical Information of the U. S. Dept. of Commerce [1966?]

Searching oligo sets of human chromosome 12 using evolutionary strategies

DNA Microarray is a powerful tool to measure the level of a mixed population of nucleic acids at one time, which has great impact in many aspects of life sciences research. In order to distinguish nucleic acids with very similar composition by hybridization, it is necessary to design microarray probes with high specificities and sensitivities. Highly specific probes correspond to probes having unique DNA sequences; whereas highly sensitive probes correspond to those with melting temperature within a desired range and having no secondary structure. The selection of these probes from a set of functional DNA sequences (exons) constitutes a computationally expensive discrete non-linear search problem. We delegate the search task to a simple yet effective Evolution Strategy algorithm. The computational efficiency is also greatly improved by making use of an available bioinformatics tool.

Density evolution and power profile optimization for iterative multiuser decoders based on individually optimum multiuser detectors

Iterative multiuser joint decoding based on exact Belief Propagation (BP) is analyzed in the large system limit by means of the replica method. It is shown that performance can be improved by appropriate power assignment to the users. The optimum power assignment can be found by linear programming in most technically relevant cases. The performance of BP iterative multiuser joint decoding is compared to suboptimum approximations based on Interference Cancellation (IC). While IC receivers show a significant loss for equal-power users, they yield performance close to BP under optimum power assignment.

Conditional distribution modeling for estimating and exploiting uncertainty in control systems

This paper presents a general methodology for estimating and incorporating uncertainty in the controller and forward models for noisy nonlinear control problems. Conditional distribution modeling in a neural network context is used to estimate uncertainty around the prediction of neural network outputs. The developed methodology circumvents the dynamic programming problem by using the predicted neural network uncertainty to localize the possible control solutions to consider. A nonlinear multivariable system with different delays between the input-output pairs is used to demonstrate the successful application of the developed control algorithm. The proposed method is suitable for redundant control systems and allows us to model strongly non Gaussian distributions of control signal as well as processes with hysteresis.

Probability distribution modelling to improve stability in nonlinear MIMO control

We consider the direct adaptive inverse control of nonlinear multivariable systems with different delays between every input-output pair. In direct adaptive inverse control, the inverse mapping is learned from examples of input-output pairs. This makes the obtained controller sub optimal, since the network may have to learn the response of the plant over a larger operational range than necessary. Moreover, in certain applications, the control problem can be redundant, implying that the inverse problem is ill posed. In this paper we propose a new algorithm which allows estimating and exploiting uncertainty in nonlinear multivariable control systems. This approach allows us to model strongly non-Gaussian distribution of control signals as well as processes with hysteresis. The proposed algorithm circumvents the dynamic programming problem by using the predicted neural network uncertainty to localise the possible control solutions to consider.

A performance assessment method for hospitals:the case of municipal hospitals in Angola

Over 60% of the recurrent budget of the Ministry of Health (MoH) in Angola is spent on the operations of the fixed health care facilities (health centres plus hospitals). However, to date, no study has been attempted to investigate how efficiently those resources are used to produce health services. Therefore the objectives of this study were to assess the technical efficiency of public municipal hospitals in Angola; assess changes in productivity over time with a view to analyzing changes in efficiency and technology; and demonstrate how the results can be used in the pursuit of the public health objective of promoting efficiency in the use of health resources. The analysis was based on a 3-year panel data from all the 28 public municipal hospitals in Angola. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), a non-parametric linear programming approach, was employed to assess the technical and scale efficiency and productivity change over time using Malmquist index.The results show that on average, productivity of municipal hospitals in Angola increased by 4.5% over the period 2000-2002; that growth was due to improvements in efficiency rather than innovation. © 2008 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

Technical efficiency:efficiency, change, technical progress and productivity growth in the national health systems of continental African countries

In May 2006, the Ministers of Health of all the countries on the African continent, at a special session of the African Union, undertook to institutionalise efficiency monitoring within their respective national health information management systems. The specific objectives of this study were: (i) to assess the technical efficiency of National Health Systems (NHSs) of African countries for measuring male and female life expectancies, and (ii) to assess changes in health productivity over time with a view to analysing changes in efficiency and changes in technology. The analysis was based on a five-year panel data (1999-2003) from all the 53 countries of continental Africa. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) - a non-parametric linear programming approach - was employed to assess the technical efficiency. Malmquist Total Factor Productivity (MTFP) was used to analyse efficiency and productivity change over time among the 53 countries' national health systems. The data consisted of two outputs (male and female life expectancies) and two inputs (per capital total health expenditure and adult literacy). The DEA revealed that 49 (92.5%) countries' NHSs were run inefficiently in 1999 and 2000; 50 (94.3%), 48 (90.6%) and 47 (88.7%) operated inefficiently in 2001, 2002, and 2003 respectively. All the 53 countries' national health systems registered improvements in total factor productivity attributable mainly to technical progress. Fifty-two countries did not experience any change in scale efficiency, while thirty (56.6%) countries' national health systems had a Pure Efficiency Change (PEFFCH) index of less than one, signifying that those countries' NHSs pure efficiency contributed negatively to productivity change. All the 53 countries' national health systems registered improvements in total factor productivity, attributable mainly to technical progress. Over half of the countries' national health systems had a pure efficiency index of less than one, signifying that those countries' NHSs pure efficiency contributed negatively to productivity change. African countries may need to critically evaluate the utility of institutionalising Malmquist TFP type of analyses to monitor changes in health systems economic efficiency and productivity over time. African national health systems, per capita total health expenditure, technical efficiency, scale efficiency, Malmquist indices of productivity change, DEA

A note on DEA models in technology selection:an improvement of Karsak and Ahiska's approach

This paper introduces a compact form for the maximum value of the non-Archimedean in Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) models applied for the technology selection, without the need to solve a linear programming (LP). Using this method the computational performance the common weight multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) DEA model proposed by Karsak and Ahiska (International Journal of Production Research, 2005, 43(8), 1537-1554) is improved. This improvement is significant when computational issues and complexity analysis are a concern.

Inverse forecasting:a new approach for predictive modelling

In the last two decades there have been substantial developments in the mathematical theory of inverse optimization problems, and their applications have expanded greatly. In parallel, time series analysis and forecasting have become increasingly important in various fields of research such as data mining, economics, business, engineering, medicine, politics, and many others. Despite the large uses of linear programming in forecasting models there is no a single application of inverse optimization reported in the forecasting literature when the time series data is available. Thus the goal of this paper is to introduce inverse optimization into forecasting field, and to provide a streamlined approach to time series analysis and forecasting using inverse linear programming. An application has been used to demonstrate the use of inverse forecasting developed in this study. © 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Measurement efficiency and productivity in SAS/OR

This paper explores the use of the optimisation procedures in SAS/OR software with application to the measurement of efficiency and productivity of decision-making units (DMUs) using data envelopment analysis (DEA) techniques. DEA was originally introduced by Charnes et al. [J. Oper. Res. 2 (1978) 429] is a linear programming method for assessing the efficiency and productivity of DMUs. Over the last two decades, DEA has gained considerable attention as a managerial tool for measuring performance of organisations and it has widely been used for assessing the efficiency of public and private sectors such as banks, airlines, hospitals, universities and manufactures. As a result, new applications with more variables and more complicated models are being introduced. Further to successive development of DEA a non-parametric productivity measure, Malmquist index, has been introduced by Fare et al. [J. Prod. Anal. 3 (1992) 85]. Employing Malmquist index, productivity growth can be decomposed into technical change and efficiency change. On the other hand, the SAS is a powerful software and it is capable of running various optimisation problems such as linear programming with all types of constraints. To facilitate the use of DEA and Malmquist index by SAS users, a SAS/MALM code was implemented in the SAS programming language. The SAS macro developed in this paper selects the chosen variables from a SAS data file and constructs sets of linear-programming models based on the selected DEA. An example is given to illustrate how one could use the code to measure the efficiency and productivity of organisations.

On the solution of a class of capital investment problems

In this work the solution of a class of capital investment problems is considered within the framework of mathematical programming. Upon the basis of the net present value criterion, the problems in question are mainly characterized by the fact that the cost of capital is defined as a non-decreasing function of the investment requirements. Capital rationing and some cases of technological dependence are also included, this approach leading to zero-one non-linear programming problems, for which specifically designed solution procedures supported by a general branch and bound development are presented. In the context of both this development and the relevant mathematical properties of the previously mentioned zero-one programs, a generalized zero-one model is also discussed. Finally,a variant of the scheme, connected with the search sequencing of optimal solutions, is presented as an alternative in which reduced storage limitations are encountered.