959 resultados para Linear program model


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Tropical coastal marine ecosystems including mangroves, seagrass beds and coral reef communities are undergoing intense degradation in response to natural and human disturbances, therefore, understanding the causes and mechanisms present challenges for scientist and managers. In order to protect our marine resources, determining the effects of nutrient loads on these coastal systems has become a key management goal. Data from monitoring programs were used to detect trends of macroalgae abundances and develop correlations with nutrient availability, as well as forecast potential responses of the communities monitored. Using eight years of data (1996–2003) from complementary but independent monitoring programs in seagrass beds and water quality of the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary (FKNMS), we: (1) described the distribution and abundance of macroalgae groups; (2) analyzed the status and spatiotemporal trends of macroalgae groups; and (3) explored the connection between water quality and the macroalgae distribution in the FKNMS. In the seagrass beds of the FKNMS calcareous green algae were the dominant macroalgae group followed by the red group; brown and calcareous red algae were present but in lower abundance. Spatiotemporal patterns of the macroalgae groups were analyzed with a non-linear regression model of the abundance data. For the period of record, all macroalgae groups increased in abundance (Abi) at most sites, with calcareous green algae increasing the most. Calcareous green algae and red algae exhibited seasonal pattern with peak abundances (Φi) mainly in summer for calcareous green and mainly in winter for red. Macroalgae Abi and long-term trend (mi) were correlated in a distinctive way with water quality parameters. Both the Abi and mi of calcareous green algae had positive correlations with NO3−, NO2−, total nitrogen (TN) and total organic carbon (TOC). Red algae Abi had a positive correlation with NO2−, TN, total phosphorus and TOC, and the mi in red algae was positively correlated with N:P. In contrast brown and calcareous red algae Abi had negative correlations with N:P. These results suggest that calcareous green algae and red algae are responding mainly to increases in N availability, a process that is happening in inshore sites. A combination of spatially variable factors such as local current patterns, nutrient sources, and habitat characteristics result in a complex array of the macroalgae community in the seagrass beds of the FKNMS.

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Purpose: Depression in older females is a significant and growing problem. Females who experience life stressors across the life span are at higher risk for developing problems with depression than their male counterparts. The primary aim of this study was (a) to examine gender-specific differences in the correlates of depression in older primary care patients based on baseline and longitudinal analyses; and (b) to examine the longitudinal effect of biopsychosocial risk factors on depression treatment outcomes in different models of behavioral healthcare (i.e., integrated care and enhanced referral). Method: This study used a quantitative secondary data analysis with longitudinal data from the Primary Care Research in Substance Abuse and Mental Health for Elderly (PRISM-E) study. A linear mixed model approach to hierarchical linear modeling was used for analysis using baseline assessment, and follow-up from three-month and six-month. Results: For participants diagnosed with major depressive disorder female gender was associated with increased depression severity at six-month compared to males at six-month. Further, the interaction between gender and life stressors found that females who reported loss of family and friends, family issues, money issues, medical illness was related to higher depression severity compared to males whereas lack of activities was related to lower depression severity among females compared to males. Conclusion: These findings suggest that gender moderated the relationship between specific life stressors and depression severity similar to how a protective factor can impact a person's response to a problem and reduce the negative impact of a risk factor on a problem outcome. Therefore, life stressors may be a reliable predictor of depression for both females and males in either behavioral health treatment model. This study concluded that life stressors influence males basic comfort, stability, and survival whereas life stressors influence females' development, personal growth, and happiness; therefore, life stressors may be a useful component to include in gender-based screening and assessment tools for depression. ^

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This work test the relationship of performance and legal form of microfinance institutions (MFI), in our work MFI can be banks, non-governmental organizations (NGO), cooperatives, non-banks financial institutions (NBFI) or rural banks. We use linear regression model, panel data and variables dummy for the legal forms. Our samples are 243 MFI from all continents, except North America, in the period from 2007 to 2012. We found that bigger MFI generates higher profit, higher returns and higher self-sufficiency rates, so the growing can be a way for consolidation of MFI. For smaller MFI a way can be assimilation or merging with other MFI. Cooperatives, non-bank financial institutions and rural banks can serve more customers, causing greater impact on society, and get higher returns. This suggests the most appropriate legal form for microfinance market can be cooperatives, non-banks financial institutions or rural banks balancing social orientation and profit orientation.

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The fast growth of the elderly population is a reality throughout the world and has become one of the greatest challenges for contemporary public health. When considering the increased life expectancy and the aging as a multidimensional phenomenon, one should highlight the need to investigate if the increase of longevity is associated with satisfactory levels of Quality of Life (QOL). This study has the objective of assessing the QOL of elderly people from the Paraíba’s Western Curimataú microregion, explained by its health and living conditions. This is a cross-sectional and observational study with quantitative design held with 444 elderly people from five cities: Barra de Santa Rosa, Cuité, Nova Floresta, Remígio e Sossego. In order to obtain information, the following instruments were used: I) Questionnaire for collection data related to the elderly population, for sociodemographic, clinical and behavioral characteristics; and II) WHOQOL-Old questionnaire, with a view to measuring and assessing QOL. Data were processed on the IBM-SPSS Statistics 20.0 software by means of the ANOVA (one-way), Student’s t, Mann-Whitney, Kruskal-Wallis and Pearson’s correlation tests, with p-values<0,05 accepted as being statistically significant. The results indicate a good global QOL (ETT=65,69%), with better assessment by elderly men, aged between 60 and 74 years, married, living with partner and children, without caregiver, physical activity practitioners, with up to one health problem before an aspect of multimorbidity and with very good and/or good assessment of basic needs. The self-reported stress showed a negative significant correlation before the global QOL, where the greater the perception of stress, the worse the assessment of QOL. In the faceted assessment of QOL, the Sensory Operation showed the best performance (ETF= 68,86%) and the Social Participation (SP) the worst (ETF=60,37%). In the multiple linear regression model, SP is singly responsible for 51,8% (R2=0,518) of explanation of the global QOL. In the intercorrelation among the WHOQOL-Old facets, only Death and Dying did not reveal significance. The harmony highlighted among the facets raises the need to ensure a comprehensive health care for the elderly population, especially in understanding the social participation as an intrinsic part of the QOL and that it requires the re-discussion and reconstruction of individual and collective, family and community, political and government actions. Hence, guaranteeing an active, healthy and participatory aging, with QOL, is the major challenge.

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The fast growth of the elderly population is a reality throughout the world and has become one of the greatest challenges for contemporary public health. When considering the increased life expectancy and the aging as a multidimensional phenomenon, one should highlight the need to investigate if the increase of longevity is associated with satisfactory levels of Quality of Life (QOL). This study has the objective of assessing the QOL of elderly people from the Paraíba’s Western Curimataú microregion, explained by its health and living conditions. This is a cross-sectional and observational study with quantitative design held with 444 elderly people from five cities: Barra de Santa Rosa, Cuité, Nova Floresta, Remígio e Sossego. In order to obtain information, the following instruments were used: I) Questionnaire for collection data related to the elderly population, for sociodemographic, clinical and behavioral characteristics; and II) WHOQOL-Old questionnaire, with a view to measuring and assessing QOL. Data were processed on the IBM-SPSS Statistics 20.0 software by means of the ANOVA (one-way), Student’s t, Mann-Whitney, Kruskal-Wallis and Pearson’s correlation tests, with p-values<0,05 accepted as being statistically significant. The results indicate a good global QOL (ETT=65,69%), with better assessment by elderly men, aged between 60 and 74 years, married, living with partner and children, without caregiver, physical activity practitioners, with up to one health problem before an aspect of multimorbidity and with very good and/or good assessment of basic needs. The self-reported stress showed a negative significant correlation before the global QOL, where the greater the perception of stress, the worse the assessment of QOL. In the faceted assessment of QOL, the Sensory Operation showed the best performance (ETF= 68,86%) and the Social Participation (SP) the worst (ETF=60,37%). In the multiple linear regression model, SP is singly responsible for 51,8% (R2=0,518) of explanation of the global QOL. In the intercorrelation among the WHOQOL-Old facets, only Death and Dying did not reveal significance. The harmony highlighted among the facets raises the need to ensure a comprehensive health care for the elderly population, especially in understanding the social participation as an intrinsic part of the QOL and that it requires the re-discussion and reconstruction of individual and collective, family and community, political and government actions. Hence, guaranteeing an active, healthy and participatory aging, with QOL, is the major challenge.

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The characteristics profile of individuals who develop AIDS in Brazil has changed over time. Among these modifications, a worrying finding is the increased incidence of AIDS in the elderly across the country. But, however, is not yet clear whether the increase in AIDS cases is sufficient to produce a change in the trend of measures in recent years in the Brazilian states, and this increase has an effect from the socioeconomic and demographic indicators. In this sense, the objective of this study is to analyze the AIDS incidence rates among the elderly in Brazil and its effect on socioeconomic and demographic inequalities in the period 2000 to 2012. This is an ecological time-series study to meet behavior of the time series of the incidence rates of AIDS in the elderly from 2000 to 2012. the rates were calculated using the secondary data from Diseases Information System Notification and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Data were analyzed statistically to know the trends in incidence rates, by polynomial regression model and joinpoint log-linear regression model, but also the simple linear regression analysis to find the relationship of trends with variables socioeconomic and demographic. SPSS 20.0® and Joinpoint 4.1.1 programs were used. All tests were carried out considering a significance of 5%. After the analysis, in Brazil were reported 62,052 new cases of AIDS in the elderly from 2000 to 2012. During this period, a significant increase was found for males, both aged 50-59 years (APPC: 3.46 %, p <0.001), such as above 59 years (AAPC: 4.38%; p <0.001). For females, the increase was significant and has the largest increments in the time series, when compared to males in both age groups (AAPC: 4.62%, p <0.001 and AAPC: 6.53%; p <0.001) respectively. The largest increases are observed in women and in the states of North and Northeast. In the Southeast Region is observed stabilization of rates throughout the series. The reason of trends between the sexes had a significant reduction, but also an approach in both age groups of the study, reaching a ratio of 1.7 males for every female in the youngest age group. The trends were related to illiteracy rates, with increasing social inequality and the lowest human development in the Brazilian states. We conclude that in Brazil the incidence of AIDS in the elderly follows an increasing trend in individuals over 50 years. Noteworthy are the highest rates of study in women and in the states of North and Northeast. In this sense, the country needs to enhance policies towards older people with STD / AIDS, training health professionals and developing effective measures for the prevention and early diagnosis of infected people, especially in places with limited resources and high social inequality. In the long term, it is developing new studies to understand whether the measures taken were effective in reducing the trends identified in this study.

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Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technologies provide a means to significantly reduce carbon emissions from the existing fleet of fossil-fired plants, and hence can facilitate a gradual transition from conventional to more sustainable sources of electric power. This is especially relevant for coal plants that have a CO2 emission rate that is roughly two times higher than that of natural gas plants. Of the different kinds of CCS technology available, post-combustion amine based CCS is the best developed and hence more suitable for retrofitting an existing coal plant. The high costs from operating CCS could be reduced by enabling flexible operation through amine storage or allowing partial capture of CO2 during high electricity prices. This flexibility is also found to improve the power plant’s ramp capability, enabling it to offset the intermittency of renewable power sources. This thesis proposes a solution to problems associated with two promising technologies for decarbonizing the electric power system: the high costs of the energy penalty of CCS, and the intermittency and non-dispatchability of wind power. It explores the economic and technical feasibility of a hybrid system consisting of a coal plant retrofitted with a post-combustion-amine based CCS system equipped with the option to perform partial capture or amine storage, and a co-located wind farm. A techno-economic assessment of the performance of the hybrid system is carried out both from the perspective of the stakeholders (utility owners, investors, etc.) as well as that of the power system operator.

In order to perform the assessment from the perspective of the facility owners (e.g., electric power utilities, independent power producers), an optimal design and operating strategy of the hybrid system is determined for both the amine storage and partial capture configurations. A linear optimization model is developed to determine the optimal component sizes for the hybrid system and capture rates while meeting constraints on annual average emission targets of CO2, and variability of the combined power output. Results indicate that there are economic benefits of flexible operation relative to conventional CCS, and demonstrate that the hybrid system could operate as an energy storage system: providing an effective pathway for wind power integration as well as a mechanism to mute the variability of intermittent wind power.

In order to assess the performance of the hybrid system from the perspective of the system operator, a modified Unit Commitment/ Economic Dispatch model is built to consider and represent the techno-economic aspects of operation of the hybrid system within a power grid. The hybrid system is found to be effective in helping the power system meet an average CO2 emissions limit equivalent to the CO2 emission rate of a state-of-the-art natural gas plant, and to reduce power system operation costs and number of instances and magnitude of energy and reserve scarcity.

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In this thesis we study aspects of (0,2) superconformal field theories (SCFTs), which are suitable for compactification of the heterotic string. In the first part, we study a class of (2,2) SCFTs obtained by fibering a Landau-Ginzburg (LG) orbifold CFT over a compact K\"ahler base manifold. While such models are naturally obtained as phases in a gauged linear sigma model (GLSM), our construction is independent of such an embedding. We discuss the general properties of such theories and present a technique to study the massless spectrum of the associated heterotic compactification. We test the validity of our method by applying it to hybrid phases of GLSMs and comparing spectra among the phases. In the second part, we turn to the study of the role of accidental symmetries in two-dimensional (0,2) SCFTs obtained by RG flow from (0,2) LG theories. These accidental symmetries are ubiquitous, and, unlike in the case of (2,2) theories, their identification is key to correctly identifying the IR fixed point and its properties. We develop a number of tools that help to identify such accidental symmetries in the context of (0,2) LG models and provide a conjecture for a toric structure of the SCFT moduli space in a large class of models. In the final part, we study the stability of heterotic compactifications described by (0,2) GLSMs with respect to worldsheet instanton corrections to the space-time superpotential following the work of Beasley and Witten. We show that generic models elude the vanishing theorem proved there, and may not determine supersymmetric heterotic vacua. We then construct a subclass of GLSMs for which a vanishing theorem holds.

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BACKGROUND: Persistently elevated natriuretic peptide (NP) levels in heart failure (HF) patients are associated with impaired prognosis. Recent work suggests that NP-guided therapy can improve outcome, but the mechanisms behind an elevated BNP remain unclear. Among the potential stimuli for NP in clinically stable patients are persistent occult fluid overload, wall stress, inflammation, fibrosis, and ischemia. The purpose of this study was to identify associates of B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) in a stable HF population.

METHODS: In a prospective observational study of 179 stable HF patients, the association between BNP and markers of collagen metabolism, inflammation, and Doppler-echocardiographic parameters including left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), left atrial volume index (LAVI), and E/e prime (E/e') was measured.

RESULTS: Univariable associates of elevated BNP were age, LVEF, LAVI, E/e', creatinine, and markers of collagen turnover. In a multiple linear regression model, age, creatinine, and LVEF remained significant associates of BNP. E/e' and markers of collagen turnover had a persistent impact on BNP independent of these covariates.

CONCLUSION: Multiple variables are associated with persistently elevated BNP levels in stable HF patients. Clarification of the relative importance of NP stimuli may help refine NP-guided therapy, potentially improving outcome for this at-risk population.

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Robust joint modelling is an emerging field of research. Through the advancements in electronic patient healthcare records, the popularly of joint modelling approaches has grown rapidly in recent years providing simultaneous analysis of longitudinal and survival data. This research advances previous work through the development of a novel robust joint modelling methodology for one of the most common types of standard joint models, that which links a linear mixed model with a Cox proportional hazards model. Through t-distributional assumptions, longitudinal outliers are accommodated with their detrimental impact being down weighed and thus providing more efficient and reliable estimates. The robust joint modelling technique and its major benefits are showcased through the analysis of Northern Irish end stage renal disease patients. With an ageing population and growing prevalence of chronic kidney disease within the United Kingdom, there is a pressing demand to investigate the detrimental relationship between the changing haemoglobin levels of haemodialysis patients and their survival. As outliers within the NI renal data were found to have significantly worse survival, identification of outlying individuals through robust joint modelling may aid nephrologists to improve patient's survival. A simulation study was also undertaken to explore the difference between robust and standard joint models in the presence of increasing proportions and extremity of longitudinal outliers. More efficient and reliable estimates were obtained by robust joint models with increasing contrast between the robust and standard joint models when a greater proportion of more extreme outliers are present. Through illustration of the gains in efficiency and reliability of parameters when outliers exist, the potential of robust joint modelling is evident. The research presented in this thesis highlights the benefits and stresses the need to utilise a more robust approach to joint modelling in the presence of longitudinal outliers.

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Chaque année le feu brûle quelques dizaines de milliers d’hectares de forêts québécoises. Le coût annuel de prévention et de lutte contre les feux de forêts au Québec est de l’ordre de plusieurs dizaines de millions de dollars. Le présent travail contribue à la réduction de ces coûts à travers l’automatisation du processus de planification des opérations de suppression des feux de forêts majeurs. Pour ce faire, un modèle mathématique linéaire en nombres entiers a été élaboré, résolu et testé; introduisant un nouveau cas particulier à la littérature des Problèmes de Tournées de Véhicules (VRP). Ce modèle mathématique concerne le déploiement aérien des ressources disponibles pour l’extinction des incendies. Le modèle élaboré a été testé avec CPLEX sur des cas tirés de données réelles. Il a permis de réduire le temps de planification des opérations d’extinction des feux de forêts majeurs de 75% dans les situations courantes.

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Introdução: As experiências adversas na infância, tal como a exposição a acontecimentos traumáticos e vivências de vergonha, podem ter um contributo importante na vida dos adolescentes moldando a forma estes se percecionam a si próprios e aos outros, e como lidam com as adversidades, podendo aumentar a sua vulnerabilidade para desenvolver uma perturbação depressiva. Este estudo, de desenho longitudinal, consistiu em estudar os factores preditores (acontecimentos de vida traumáticos e sentimentos de vergonha) no desenvolvimento de psicopatologia depressiva a seis meses. Método: A amostra é constituída por 325 adolescentes, com idades compreendidas entre os 12 e os 18 anos a frequentar o 3º ciclo do ensino básico e ensino secundário. Para o estudo das variáveis referidas, foram utilizados os seguintes instrumentos de medida: o Child Depression Inventory, o Childhood Trauma Questionaire e a Escala de Vergonha Externa. Resultados: Os resultados obtidos relativamente à estabilidade absoluta das variáveis demonstram diferenças significativas entre os valores médios do 1ºmomento de avaliação e do 2º momento de avaliação (após 6 meses) para a variável vergonha. Ao longo do estudo, verificou-se uma associação positiva entre as variáveis relacionadas com o trauma e os sentimentos de vergonha avaliados no primeiro tempo (T1) e a variável sintomas depressivos (T2). O modelo de regressão linear múltipla, explicou 63% da variância dos sintomas depressivos no tempo 2, mostrando que o facto de pertencer ao sexo feminino, experienciar mais vivências de vergonha, e mais experiências traumáticas de abuso afetivo, abuso sexual e de negligência emocional permitem predizer mais sintomas depressivos na adolescência. Conclusão: Podemos concluir com a presente investigação, que o impacto de acontecimentos traumáticos, do tipo abuso/negligência, bem como de sentimentos de vergonha durante a fase da adolescência pode ser nocivo para o desenvolvimento harmonioso posterior, nomeadamente no desenvolvimento de sintomatologia depressiva. / Introduction: The adverse experiences in childhood, such as an exhibition of traumatic events and experiences of sham can have important contribution in teenager’s life shaping the way they perceive themselves and the others and how they deal with adversity, increasing their vulnerability to develop a depressive disorder. This study, longitudinal design, it was consisted in study of the predictive factors (traumatic life events and feelings of shame) in the development of depressive psychopathology in six months. Method: The sample consisted of 325 adolescents aged between 12 and 18 years attending the 3rd cycle of basic education and secondary education. To the study of the variables mentioned, the following measuring instruments were used: the Child Depression Inventory, the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire and External Shame Scale. Results: The results obtained regarding the absolute stability of the variables showed significant differences between the mean values of the evaluation 1st moment and 2nd moment of evaluation (after 6 months) for the variable shame. Throughout the study, there was a positive association between variables related to the trauma and feelings of shame evaluated at the first time (T1) and the variable depressive symptoms (T2). The multiple linear regression model explained 63% of variance in depressive symptoms at time 2 , showing that the fact of being female experience more shame experiences, and most traumatic experiences of emotional abuse, sexual abuse and emotional neglect permit predict more depressive symptoms in adolescence. Conclusion: We can conclude with this research, that the impact of traumatic events, the type abuse/neglect, as well as feelings of shame during adolescence can be harmful to the subsequent harmonious development, including the development of depressive symptoms.

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1. Genomewide association studies (GWAS) enable detailed dissections of the genetic basis for organisms' ability to adapt to a changing environment. In long-term studies of natural populations, individuals are often marked at one point in their life and then repeatedly recaptured. It is therefore essential that a method for GWAS includes the process of repeated sampling. In a GWAS, the effects of thousands of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) need to be fitted and any model development is constrained by the computational requirements. A method is therefore required that can fit a highly hierarchical model and at the same time is computationally fast enough to be useful. 2. Our method fits fixed SNP effects in a linear mixed model that can include both random polygenic effects and permanent environmental effects. In this way, the model can correct for population structure and model repeated measures. The covariance structure of the linear mixed model is first estimated and subsequently used in a generalized least squares setting to fit the SNP effects. The method was evaluated in a simulation study based on observed genotypes from a long-term study of collared flycatchers in Sweden. 3. The method we present here was successful in estimating permanent environmental effects from simulated repeated measures data. Additionally, we found that especially for variable phenotypes having large variation between years, the repeated measurements model has a substantial increase in power compared to a model using average phenotypes as a response. 4. The method is available in the R package RepeatABEL. It increases the power in GWAS having repeated measures, especially for long-term studies of natural populations, and the R implementation is expected to facilitate modelling of longitudinal data for studies of both animal and human populations.

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Il trasporto marittimo è una delle modalità più utilizzate soprattutto per la movimentazione di grandi volumi di prodotti tra i continenti in quanto è a basso costo, sicuro e meno inquinante rispetto ad altri mezzi di movimentazione. Ai giorni nostri è responsabile di circa l’80% del commercio globale (in volume di carichi trasportati). Il settore del trasporto marittimo ha avuto una lunga tradizione di pianificazione manuale effettuata da progettisti esperti.
 L’obiettivo principale di questa trattazione è stato quello di implementare un modello matematico lineare (MILP, Mixed-Integer Linear Programming Model) per l’ottimizzazione delle rotte marittime nell’ambito del mercato orto-frutticolo che si sviluppa nel bacino del Mediterraneo (problema di Ship-Scheduling). Il modello fornito in questa trattazione è un valido strumento di supporto alle decisioni che può utilizzare uno spedizioniere nell’ambito della pianificazione delle rotte marittime della flotta di navi in suo possesso. Consente di determinare l’insieme delle rotte ottimali che devono essere svolte da un insieme di vettori al fine di massimizzare il profitto complessivo dello spedizioniere, generato nell’arco di tempo considerato. Inoltre, permette di ottenere, per ogni nave considerata, la ripartizione ottimale della merce (carico ottimale).

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We analyze a real data set pertaining to reindeer fecal pellet-group counts obtained from a survey conducted in a forest area in northern Sweden. In the data set, over 70% of counts are zeros, and there is high spatial correlation. We use conditionally autoregressive random effects for modeling of spatial correlation in a Poisson generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), quasi-Poisson hierarchical generalized linear model (HGLM), zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP), and hurdle models. The quasi-Poisson HGLM allows for both under- and overdispersion with excessive zeros, while the ZIP and hurdle models allow only for overdispersion. In analyzing the real data set, we see that the quasi-Poisson HGLMs can perform better than the other commonly used models, for example, ordinary Poisson HGLMs, spatial ZIP, and spatial hurdle models, and that the underdispersed Poisson HGLMs with spatial correlation fit the reindeer data best. We develop R codes for fitting these models using a unified algorithm for the HGLMs. Spatial count response with an extremely high proportion of zeros, and underdispersion can be successfully modeled using the quasi-Poisson HGLM with spatial random effects.