Robust dynamics of Amazon dieback to climate change with perturbed ecosystem model parameters

Climate change science is increasingly concerned with methods for managing and integrating sources of uncertainty from emission storylines, climate model projections, and ecosystem model parameterizations. In tropical ecosystems, regional climate projections and modeled ecosystem responses vary greatly, leading to a significant source of uncertainty in global biogeochemical accounting and possible future climate feedbacks. Here, we combine an ensemble of IPCC-AR4 climate change projections for the Amazon Basin (eight general circulation models) with alternative ecosystem parameter sets for the dynamic global vegetation model, LPJmL. We evaluate LPJmL simulations of carbon stocks and fluxes against flux tower and aboveground biomass datasets for individual sites and the entire basin. Variability in LPJmL model sensitivity to future climate change is primarily related to light and water limitations through biochemical and water-balance-related parameters. Temperature-dependent parameters related to plant respiration and photosynthesis appear to be less important than vegetation dynamics (and their parameters) for determining the magnitude of ecosystem response to climate change. Variance partitioning approaches reveal that relationships between uncertainty from ecosystem dynamics and climate projections are dependent on geographic location and the targeted ecosystem process. Parameter uncertainty from the LPJmL model does not affect the trajectory of ecosystem response for a given climate change scenario and the primary source of uncertainty for Amazon 'dieback' results from the uncertainty among climate projections. Our approach for describing uncertainty is applicable for informing and prioritizing policy options related to mitigation and adaptation where long-term investments are required.

Formation and circulation of the cold intermediate layer in the Gulf of Saint Lawrence

[ 1] The local heat content and formation rate of the cold intermediate layer (CIL) in the Gulf of Saint Lawrence are examined using a combination of new in situ wintertime observations and a three-dimensional numerical model. The field observations consist of five moorings located throughout the gulf over the period of November 2002 to June 2003. The observations demonstrate a substantially deeper surface mixed layer in the central and northeast gulf than in regions downstream of the buoyant surface outflow from the Saint Lawrence Estuary. The mixed-layer depth in the estuary remains shallow (< 60 m) throughout winter, with the arrival of a layer of near-freezing waters between 40 and 100 m depth in April. An eddy-permitting ice-ocean model with realistic forcing is used to hindcast the period of observation. The model simulates well the seasonal evolution of mixed-layer depth and CIL heat content. Although the greatest heat losses occur in the northeast, the most significant change in CIL heat content over winter occurs in the Anticosti Trough. The observed renewal of CIL in the estuary in spring is captured by the model. The simulation highlights the role of the northwest gulf, and in particular, the separation of the Gaspe Current, in controlling the exchange of CIL between the estuary and the gulf. In order to isolate the effects of inflow through the Strait of Belle Isle on the CIL heat content, we examine a sensitivity experiment in which the strait is closed. This simulation shows that the inflow has a less important effect on the CIL than was suggested by previous studies.

Characterising the background errors for the boundary-layer capping inversion

The one-dimensional variational assimilation of vertical temperature information in the presence of a boundary-layer capping inversion is studied. For an optimal analysis of the vertical temperature profile, an accurate representation of the background error covariances is essential. The background error covariances are highly flow-dependent due to the variability in the presence, structure and height of the boundary-layer capping inversion. Flow-dependent estimates of the background error covariances are shown by studying the spread in an ensemble of forecasts. A forecast of the temperature profile (used as a background state) may have a significant error in the position of the capping inversion with respect to observations. It is shown that the assimilation of observations may weaken the inversion structure in the analysis if only magnitude errors are accounted for as is the case for traditional data assimilation methods used for operational weather prediction. The positional error is treated explicitly here in a new data assimilation scheme to reduce positional error, in addition to the traditional framework to reduce magnitude error. The distribution of the positional error of the background inversion is estimated for use with the new scheme.

Integrable evolution equations in time-dependent domains

We discuss the implementation of a method of solving initial boundary value problems in the case of integrable evolution equations in a time-dependent domain. This method is applied to a dispersive linear evolution equation with spatial derivatives of arbitrary order and to the defocusing nonlinear Schrödinger equation, in the domain l(t)

The influence of individual characteristics on employee creative participation

In a knowledge-based economy and dynamic work environment retaining competitiveness is increasingly dependent on creativity, skills, individual abilities and appropriate motivation. For instance, the UK government explicitly stated in the recent "Review of Employee Engagement and Investment" report that new ways are required through which British companies could boost employee engagement at work, improving staff commitment and, thereby, increase workplace productivity. Although creativity and innovation have been studied extensively, little is known about employees' intrinsic willingness to contribute novel ideas and solutions (defined here as creative participation). For instance, the same individual can thrive in one organisation but be completely isolated in another and the question is to what extent this depends on individual characteristics and organisational settings. The main aim of this research is, therefore, to provide a conceptual framework for identification of individual characteristics that influence employees' willingness to contribute new ideas. In order to achieve this aim the investigation will be based on a developed psychological experiment, and will include personal-profiling inventory and a questionnaire. Understanding how these parameters influence willingness of an individual to put forward created ideas would offer an opportunity for companies to improve motivation practices and team efficiency, and can consequently lead to better overall performance.

Hydrolyzable tannin structures influence relative globular and random coil protein binding strengths

Binding parameters for the interactions of pentagalloyl glucose (PGG) and four hydrolyzable tannins (representing gallotannins and ellagitannins) with gelatin and bovine serum albumin (BSA) have been determined from isothermal titration calorimetry data. Equilibrium binding constants determined for the interaction of PGG and isolated mixtures of tara gallotannins and of sumac gallotannins with gelatin and BSA were of the same order of magnitude for each tannin (in the range of 10(4)-10(5) M-1 for stronger binding sites when using a binding model consisting of two sets of multiple binding sites). In contrast, isolated mixtures of chestnut ellagitannins and of myrabolan ellagitannins exhibited 3-4 orders of magnitude greater equilibrium binding constants for the interaction with gelatin (similar to 2 x 10(6) M-1) than for that with BSA (similar to 8 x 10(2) M-1). Binding stoichiometries revealed that the stronger binding sites on gelatin outnumbered those on BSA by a ratio of at least similar to 2:1 for all of the hydrolyzable tannins studied. Overall, the data revealed that relative binding constants for the interactions with gelatin and BSA are dependent on the structural flexibility of the tannin molecule.

Influence of vegetation on the local climate and hydrology in the tropics: sensitivity to soil parameters

Land use change with accompanying major modifications to the vegetation cover is widespread in the tropics, due to increasing demands for agricultural land, and may have significant impacts on the climate. This study investigates (1) the influence of vegetation on the local climate in the tropics; (2) how that influence varies from region to region; and (3) how the sensitivity of the local climate to vegetation, and hence land use change, depends on the hydraulic characteristics of the soil. A series of idealised experiments with the Hadley Centre atmospheric model, HadAM3, are described in which the influence of vegetation in the tropics is assessed by comparing the results of integrations with and without tropical vegetation. The sensitivity of the results to the soil characteristics is then explored by repeating the experiments with a differing, but equally valid, description of soil hydraulic parameters. The results have shown that vegetation has a significant moderating effect on the climate throughout the tropics by cooling the surface through enhanced latent heat fluxes. The influence of vegetation is, however, seasonally dependent, with much greater impacts during the dry season when the availability of surface moisture is limited. Furthermore, there are significant regional variations both in terms of the magnitude of the cooling and in the response of the precipitation. Not all regions show a feedback of vegetation on the local precipitation; this result has been related both to vegetation type and to the prevailing meteorological conditions. An important finding has been the sensitivity of the results to the specification of the soil hydraulic parameters. The introduction of more freely draining soils has changed the soil-moisture contents of the control, vegetated system and has reduced, significantly, the climate sensitivity to vegetation and by implication, land use change. Changes to the soil parameters have also had an impact on the soil hydrology and its interaction with vegetation, by altering the partitioning between fast and slow runoff processes. These results raise important questions about the representation of highly heterogeneous soil characteristics in climate models, as well as the potential influence of land use change on the soil characteristics themselves.

An in situ time-dependent study of the photodimerisation of chloro-derivatives of trans-cinnamic acid using infrared microspectroscopy with a synchrotron radiation source

The photodimerisation of single crystals of substituted cinnamic acid has been monitored continuously by infrared microscopy using a synchrotron source. The beta-form of 2,4-dichloro-trans-cinnamic acid dimerises under ultraviolet irradiation to form the corresponding beta-truxinic acid derivative in a reaction which follows strictly first order kinetics. By contrast the corresponding reactions in single crystals of beta-2-chloro-trans-cinnamic acid and beta-4-chloro-trans-cinnamic acid deviate somewhat from first order kinetics as a result of solid-state effects. In all three cases the reactions proceed smoothly from monomer to dimer with no hint of any reaction intermediate.

2D parallel interpenetration of [M-2(bpp)(4)X-4] [M, Fe(II)/Co(II); bpp, 4,4 '-trimethylenedipyridine; X, SCN-SeCN- and N-3(-)] complexes: pseudohalide-dependent conformation of bpp

Three coordination complexes of Co(II)/Fe(II) with 4,4'-trimethylenedipyridine (bpp) and pseudohalides (SCN-, SeCN- and N-3(-)) have been synthesized. The complexes have been characterized by X-ray single crystal structure determination. They are isomorphous having 2D layers in which two independent wavy nets display parallel interwoven structures. Pseudohalide binds metal centers through N terminal and occupies the trans axial positions of the octahedral metal coordination environment. Pseudohalide remains pendant on both sides of the polymeric layer and help the stacking through hydrogen bonding. The conformation of bpp in the interpenetrated nets is observed to be dependent on the choice of pseudohalide. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Layer-by-layer deposition of praseodymium oxide on tin-doped indium oxide (ITO) surface

Praseodymium oxide as a thin film of controllable layer is known to display many unique physiochemical properties, which can be useful to ceramic, semiconductive and sensor industries. Here in this short paper, we describe a new chemical method of depositing praseodymium oxide on tin-doped indium oxide (ITO) surface using a layer-by-layer approach. The process is carried out by dipping the ITO in solutions of adsorbable polycationic chitosan and alkaline praseodymium hydroxide Pr(OH)(3) alternatively in order to build up the well-defined multi-layers. XRD suggests that the predominant form of the oxide is Pr6O11, obtained after heat treatment of the deposited ITO in static air at 500 degrees C. Microscopic studies including AFM, TEM and SEM indicate that the deposited oxide particles are uniform in size and shape (cylindrical), mesoporous and the thickness of the film can be controlled. AC impedance measurements of the deposited materials also reveal that the oxide layers display a high electrical conductivity hence suitable for sensor uses. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Serpa cheese: technological, biochemical and microbiological characterisation of a PDO ewe's milk cheese coagulated with Cynara cardunculus L

Portugal has a strong tradition of cheesemaking from raw ewe's milk; most of these cheeses are still made on a traditional farmhouse scale. Their production is protected by Protected Designation of Origin (PDO) but the specific biochemical aspects of the majority still need to be characterised. Two different cheesemaking procedures, traditional and semi-industrial, were compared technologically, biochemically and microbiologically. It was observed that, despite the highly significant difference between artisanal and semi-industrial cheeses (P < 0.001), both products were within the limits of national regulations for most parameters except maturation temperature, humidity and the value for the maturation index. Although the present study was not fully representative of the region, the results obtained suggest that the specific regulations for Serpa cheese should be revised and that other parameters, such as moisture and salt-in-moisture content, which are very much dependent on the cheesemaking process, should be included in order to characterise better this traditional cheese.

Investigation of cadmium alternatives in thin-film coatings - art. no. 62860C

The health risks associated with the inhalation or ingestion of cadmium are well documented([1,2]). During the past 18 years, EU legislation has steadily been introduced to restrict its use, leaving a requirement for the development of replacement materials. This paper looks at possible alternatives to various cadmium II-VI dielectric compounds used in the deposition of optical thin-films for various opto-electronic devices. Application areas of particular interest are for infrared multilayer interference filter fabrication and solar cell industries, where cadmium-based coatings currently find widespread use. The results of single and multilayer designs comprising CdTe, CdS, CdSe and PbTe deposited onto group IV and II-VI materials as interference filters for the mid-IR region are presented. Thin films of SnN, SnO2, SnS and SnSe are fabricated by plasma assisted CVD, reactive RF sputtering and thermal evaporation. Examination of these films using FTIR spectroscopy, SEM, EDX analysis and optical characterisation methods provide details of material dispersion, absorption, composition, refractive index, energy band gap and layer thicknesses. The optimisation of deposition parameters in order to synthesise coatings with similar optical and semiconductor properties as those containing cadmium has been investigated. Results of environmental, durability and stability trials are also presented.

Estimation of Hidden Markov Models parameters using differential evolution

Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) have been successfully applied to different modelling and classification problems from different areas over the recent years. An important step in using HMMs is the initialisation of the parameters of the model as the subsequent learning of HMM’s parameters will be dependent on these values. This initialisation should take into account the knowledge about the addressed problem and also optimisation techniques to estimate the best initial parameters given a cost function, and consequently, to estimate the best log-likelihood. This paper proposes the initialisation of Hidden Markov Models parameters using the optimisation algorithm Differential Evolution with the aim to obtain the best log-likelihood.

A fast linear-in-the-parameters classifier construction algorithm using orthogonal forward selection to minimize leave-one-out misclassification rate

We propose a simple and computationally efficient construction algorithm for two class linear-in-the-parameters classifiers. In order to optimize model generalization, a forward orthogonal selection (OFS) procedure is used for minimizing the leave-one-out (LOO) misclassification rate directly. An analytic formula and a set of forward recursive updating formula of the LOO misclassification rate are developed and applied in the proposed algorithm. Numerical examples are used to demonstrate that the proposed algorithm is an excellent alternative approach to construct sparse two class classifiers in terms of performance and computational efficiency.

A method for estimating the turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rate from a vertically pointing Doppler lidar, and independent evaluation from balloon-borne in situ measurements

A method of estimating dissipation rates from a vertically pointing Doppler lidar with high temporal and spatial resolution has been evaluated by comparison with independent measurements derived from a balloon-borne sonic anemometer. This method utilizes the variance of the mean Doppler velocity from a number of sequential samples and requires an estimate of the horizontal wind speed. The noise contribution to the variance can be estimated from the observed signal-to-noise ratio and removed where appropriate. The relative size of the noise variance to the observed variance provides a measure of the confidence in the retrieval. Comparison with in situ dissipation rates derived from the balloon-borne sonic anemometer reveal that this particular Doppler lidar is capable of retrieving dissipation rates over a range of at least three orders of magnitude. This method is most suitable for retrieval of dissipation rates within the convective well-mixed boundary layer where the scales of motion that the Doppler lidar probes remain well within the inertial subrange. Caution must be applied when estimating dissipation rates in more quiescent conditions. For the particular Doppler lidar described here, the selection of suitably short integration times will permit this method to be applicable in such situations but at the expense of accuracy in the Doppler velocity estimates. The two case studies presented here suggest that, with profiles every 4 s, reliable estimates of ϵ can be derived to within at least an order of magnitude throughout almost all of the lowest 2 km and, in the convective boundary layer, to within 50%. Increasing the integration time for individual profiles to 30 s can improve the accuracy substantially but potentially confines retrievals to within the convective boundary layer. Therefore, optimization of certain instrument parameters may be required for specific implementations.