Herramientas estadísticas para el estudio de perfiles de riesgo

En este documento se ilustra de un modo práctico, el empleo de tres instrumentos que permiten al actuario definir grupos arancelarios y estimar premios de riesgo en el proceso que tasa la clase para el seguro de no vida. El primero es el análisis de segmentación (CHAID y XAID) usado en primer lugar en 1997 por UNESPA en su cartera común de coches. El segundo es un proceso de selección gradual con el modelo de regresión a base de distancia. Y el tercero es un proceso con el modelo conocido y generalizado de regresión linear, que representa la técnica más moderna en la bibliografía actuarial. De estos últimos, si combinamos funciones de eslabón diferentes y distribuciones de error, podemos obtener el aditivo clásico y modelos multiplicativos

Holt Oram syndrome: a registry-based study in Europe.

BACKGROUND: Holt-Oram syndrome (HOS) is an autosomal dominant disorder characterised by upper limb anomalies and congenital heart defects. We present epidemiological and clinical aspects of HOS patients using data from EUROCAT (European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies) registries. METHODS: The study was based on data collected during 1990-2011 by 34 registries. The registries are population-based and use multiple sources of information to collect data on all types of birth using standardized definitions, methodology and coding. Diagnostic criteria for inclusion in the study were the presence of radial ray abnormalities and congenital heart disease (CHD), or the presence of either radial ray anomaly or CHD, with family history of HOS. RESULTS: A total of 73 cases of HOS were identified, including 11 (15.1%) TOPFA and 62 (84.9%) LB. Out of 73 HOS cases, 30.8% (20/65) were suspected prenatally, 55.4% (36/65) at birth, 10.7% (7/65) in the first week of life, and 3.1% (2/65) in the first year of life. The prenatal detection rate was 39.2% (20/51), with no significant change over the study period. In 55% (11/20) of prenatally detected cases, parents decided to terminate pregnancy. Thumb anomalies were reported in all cases. Agenesis/hypoplasia of radius was present in 49.2% (30/61), ulnar aplasia/hypoplasia in 24.6% (15/61) and humerus hypoplasia/phocomelia in 42.6% (26/61) of patients. Congenital heart defects (CHD) were recorded in 78.7% (48/61) of patients. Isolated septal defects were present in 54.2 (26/48), while 25% (12/48) of patients had complex/severe CHD. The mean prevalence of HOS diagnosed prenatally or in the early years of life in European registries was 0.7 per 100,000 births or 1:135,615 births. CONCLUSIONS: HOS is a rare genetic condition showing regional variation in its prevalence. It is often missed prenatally, in spite of the existence of major structural anomalies. When discovered, parents in 45% (9/20) of cases opt for the continuation of pregnancy. Although a quarter of patients have severe CHD, the overall first week survival is very good, which is important information for counselling purposes.

Protein level expression of Toll-like receptors 2, 4 and 9 in renal disease.

Background. Toll-like receptors (TLR) recognize a variety of ligands, including pathogen-associated molecular patterns and link innate and adaptive immunity. Individual receptors can be up-regulated during infection and inflammation. We examined the expression of selected TLRs at the protein level in various types of renal disease.Methods. Frozen sections of renal biopsies were stained with monoclonal antibodies to TLR-2, -4 and -9.Results. Up-regulation of the three TLRs studied was seen, although the extent was modest. TLR-2- and -4-positive cells belonged to the population of infiltrating inflammatory cells; only in the case of TLR-9 were intrinsic glomerular cells positive in polyoma virus infection and haemolytic uraemic syndrome (HUS).Conclusions. Evidence for the involvement of the three TLRs tested in a variety of human renal diseases was found. These findings add to our understanding of the role of the innate immune system in kidney disease.

Political Emotions: Civil Religion and Melodrama in Spielberg's Lincoln

This essay focuses on how Spielberg's film engages with and contributes to the myth of Lincoln as a super-natural figure, a saint more than a hero or great statesman, while anchoring his moral authority in the sentimental rhetoric of the domestic sphere. It is this use of the melodramatic mode, linking the familial space with the national through the trope of the victim-hero, which is the essay's main concern. With Tony Kushner, author of Angels in America, as scriptwriter, it is perhaps not surprising that melodrama is the operative mode in the film. One of the issues that emerge from this analysis is how the film updates melodrama for a contemporary audience in order to minimize what could be perceived as manipulative sentimental devices, observing for most of the film an aesthetic of relative sobriety and realism. In the last hour, and especially the final minutes of the film, melodramatic conventions are deployed in full force and infused with hagiographic iconography to produce a series of emotionally charged moments that create a perfect union of American Civil Religion and classical melodrama. The cornerstone of both cultural paradigms, as deployed in this film, is death: Lincoln's at the hands of an assassin, and the Civil War soldiers', poignantly depicted at key moments of the film. Finally, the essay shows how film melodrama as a genre weaves together the private and the public, the domestic with the national, the familial with the military, and links pathos to politics in a carefully choreographed narrative of sentimentalized mythopoesis.

Herramientas estadísticas para el estudio de perfiles de riesgo

En este documento se ilustra de un modo práctico, el empleo de tres instrumentos que permiten al actuario definir grupos arancelarios y estimar premios de riesgo en el proceso que tasa la clase para el seguro de no vida. El primero es el análisis de segmentación (CHAID y XAID) usado en primer lugar en 1997 por UNESPA en su cartera común de coches. El segundo es un proceso de selección gradual con el modelo de regresión a base de distancia. Y el tercero es un proceso con el modelo conocido y generalizado de regresión linear, que representa la técnica más moderna en la bibliografía actuarial. De estos últimos, si combinamos funciones de eslabón diferentes y distribuciones de error, podemos obtener el aditivo clásico y modelos multiplicativos

Neuroanatomical and neuropsychological features of elderly euthymic depressed patients with early- and late-onset.

BACKGROUND: Whether or not cognitive impairment and brain structure changes are trait characteristics of late-life depression is still disputed. Previous studies led to conflicting data possibly because of the difference in the age of depression onset. In fact, several lines of evidence suggest that late-onset depression (LOD) is more frequently associated with neuropsychological deficits and brain pathology than early-onset depression (EOD). To date, no study explored concomitantly the cognitive profile and brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) patterns in euthymic EOD and LOD patients. METHOD: Using a cross-sectional design, 41 remitted outpatients (30 with EOD and 11 with LOD) were compared to 30 healthy controls. Neuropsychological evaluation concerned working memory, episodic memory, processing speed, naming capacity and executive functions. Volumetric estimates of the amygdala, hippocampus, entorhinal and anterior cingulate cortex were obtained using both voxel-based and region of interest morphometric methods. White matter hyperintensities were assessed semiquantitatively. RESULTS: Both cognitive performance and brain volumes were preserved in euthymic EOD patients whereas LOD patients showed a significant reduction of episodic memory capacity and a higher rate of periventricular hyperintensities compared to both controls and EOD patients. CONCLUSION: Our results support the dissociation between EOD thought to be mainly related to psychosocial factors and LOD that is characterized by increasing vascular burden and episodic memory decline.

Integration of Bridge Damage Detection Concepts and Components (3 volumes), TR-636, 2013

This work is divided into three volumes: Volume I: Strain-Based Damage Detection; Volume II: Acceleration-Based Damage Detection; Volume III: Wireless Bridge Monitoring Hardware. Volume I: In this work, a previously-developed structural health monitoring (SHM) system was advanced toward a ready-for-implementation system. Improvements were made with respect to automated data reduction/analysis, data acquisition hardware, sensor types, and communication network architecture. The statistical damage-detection tool, control-chart-based damage-detection methodologies, were further investigated and advanced. For the validation of the damage-detection approaches, strain data were obtained from a sacrificial specimen attached to the previously-utilized US 30 Bridge over the South Skunk River (in Ames, Iowa), which had simulated damage,. To provide for an enhanced ability to detect changes in the behavior of the structural system, various control chart rules were evaluated. False indications and true indications were studied to compare the damage detection ability in regard to each methodology and each control chart rule. An autonomous software program called Bridge Engineering Center Assessment Software (BECAS) was developed to control all aspects of the damage detection processes. BECAS requires no user intervention after initial configuration and training. Volume II: In this work, a previously developed structural health monitoring (SHM) system was advanced toward a ready-for-implementation system. Improvements were made with respect to automated data reduction/analysis, data acquisition hardware, sensor types, and communication network architecture. The objective of this part of the project was to validate/integrate a vibration-based damage-detection algorithm with the strain-based methodology formulated by the Iowa State University Bridge Engineering Center. This report volume (Volume II) presents the use of vibration-based damage-detection approaches as local methods to quantify damage at critical areas in structures. Acceleration data were collected and analyzed to evaluate the relationships between sensors and with changes in environmental conditions. A sacrificial specimen was investigated to verify the damage-detection capabilities and this volume presents a transmissibility concept and damage-detection algorithm that show potential to sense local changes in the dynamic stiffness between points across a joint of a real structure. The validation and integration of the vibration-based and strain-based damage-detection methodologies will add significant value to Iowa’s current and future bridge maintenance, planning, and management Volume III: In this work, a previously developed structural health monitoring (SHM) system was advanced toward a ready-for-implementation system. Improvements were made with respect to automated data reduction/analysis, data acquisition hardware, sensor types, and communication network architecture. This report volume (Volume III) summarizes the energy harvesting techniques and prototype development for a bridge monitoring system that uses wireless sensors. The wireless sensor nodes are used to collect strain measurements at critical locations on a bridge. The bridge monitoring hardware system consists of a base station and multiple self-powered wireless sensor nodes. The base station is responsible for the synchronization of data sampling on all nodes and data aggregation. Each wireless sensor node include a sensing element, a processing and wireless communication module, and an energy harvesting module. The hardware prototype for a wireless bridge monitoring system was developed and tested on the US 30 Bridge over the South Skunk River in Ames, Iowa. The functions and performance of the developed system, including strain data, energy harvesting capacity, and wireless transmission quality, were studied and are covered in this volume.

Linear relations between writhe and minimal crossing number in Conway families of ideal knots and links

We showed earlier how to predict the writhe of any rational knot or link in its ideal geometric configuration, or equivalently the average of the 3D writhe over statistical ensembles of random configurations of a given knot or link (Cerf and Stasiak 2000 Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 97 3795). There is no general relation between the minimal crossing number of a knot and the writhe of its ideal geometric configuration. However, within individual families of knots linear relations between minimal crossing number and writhe were observed (Katritch et al 1996 Nature 384 142). Here we present a method that allows us to express the writhe as a linear function of the minimal crossing number within Conway families of knots and links in their ideal configuration. The slope of the lines and the shift between any two lines with the same

Influence of weather, rank, and home advantage on football outcomes in the gulf region.

PURPOSE: The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of weather, rank, and home advantage on international football match results and scores in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region. METHODS: Football matches (n = 2008) in six GCC countries were analyzed. To determine the weather influence on the likelihood of favorable outcome and goal difference, generalized linear model with a logit link function and multiple regression analysis were performed. RESULTS: In the GCC region, home teams tend to have greater likelihood of a favorable outcome (P < 0.001) and higher goal difference (P < 0.001). Temperature difference was identified as a significant explanatory variable when used independently (P < 0.001) or after adjustment for home advantage and team ranking (P < 0.001). The likelihood of favorable outcome for GCC teams increases by 3% for every 1-unit increase in temperature difference. After inclusion of interaction with opposition, this advantage remains significant only when playing against non-GCC opponents. While home advantage increased the odds of favorable outcome (P < 0.001) and goal difference (P < 0.001) after inclusion of interaction term, the likelihood of favorable outcome for a GCC team decreased (P < 0.001) when playing against a stronger opponent. Finally, the temperature and wet bulb globe temperature approximation were found as better indicators of the effect of environmental conditions than absolute and relative humidity or heat index on match outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: In GCC region, higher temperature increased the likelihood of a favorable outcome when playing against non-GCC teams. However, international ranking should be considered because an opponent with a higher rank reduced, but did not eliminate, the likelihood of a favorable outcome.

FiltekTM Silorane and FiltekTM Supreme XT resins: tissue reaction after subcutaneous implantation in isogenic mice

The aim of this study was to evaluate the tissue compatibility of a silorane-based resin system (FiltekTM Silorane) and a methacrylatebased nanoparticle resin (FiltekTM Supreme XT) after implantation in the subcutaneous connective tissue of isogenic mice. One hundred and thirty five male isogenic BALB/c mice were randomly assigned to 12 experimental and 3 control groups, according to the implanted material and the experimental period of 7, 21 and 63 days. At the end of each period, the animals were killed and the tubes with the surrounding tissues were removed and processed for microscopic analysis. Samples were subjected to a descriptive and a semi-quantitative analyses using a 4-point scoring system (0-3) to evaluate the collagen fiber formation and inflammatory infiltrate. Data were statistically analyzed using the Kruskal Wallis test (a=0.05). The results showed that there was no significant difference between the experimental and control groups considering the three evaluation periods (p>0.05). The silorane-based and the methacrylate-based nanoparticle resins presented similar tissue response to that of the empty tube (control group) after subcutaneous implantation in isogenic mice.

Community structure in mediterranean shallow lentic ecosystems: size-based vs. taxon-based approaches

The main environmental variables determining the community structure and the functioning of Mediterranean shallow lentic ecosystems are described. These ecosystems are characterized by the unpredictability of their water inputs and the high variability in their water level and physical and chemical composition. Variations in flooding, salinity, and water turnover are determinant in species composition and nutrient dynamics. Taxon-based and size-based approaches to the study of the community structure of aquatic organisms that colonise these ecosystems are also compared. The conventional taxonomic approach, based on the determination of species composition, has been used for the identification of patterns in species richness, distribution and temporal dynamics, and for ecological requirements of species and their potential use as ecological indicators. This taxonbased approach has been compared with a size-based approach, where individuals are classified by their size. Size-based approach gives complementary information about community structure and dynamics, especially when communities are dominated by a single species. The use of size diversity combined with species diversity is suggested for a more complete understanding of community structuring in this type of ecosystem. Detailed examples of two Mediterranean shallow lentic ecosystems, the salt marshes of the Empordà wetlands and the Espolla temporary karstic pond, which differ in hydrology and water origin, are used to discuss the suitability of these different approaches

World Of Wars Android Game

World Of Wars es un videojuego de acción para plataformas Android basándose en los estilos shoot em¿up arcades antiguos pero adaptándolos a los nuevos tiempos y nuevas formas de juego que existen en la actualidad. Se ha utilizado la librería Cocos2D-x, así como el lenguaje de programación C++ para el desarrollo de el.

World of wars : Desarrollo de aplicaciones Android

World of wars es un videojuego de acción para plataformas Android basándose en los estilos shoot 'em up arcade antiguos pero adaptándolos a los nuevos tiempos y nuevas formas de juego. Se ha utilizado la librería Cocos2d-x, así como el lenguaje de programación C++ para su desarrollo.

Towards a universal sampling protocol for soil biotas in the humid tropics

This paper reviews the methods for the inventory of below-ground biotas in the humid tropics, to document the (hypothesized) loss of soil biodiversity associated with deforestation and agricultural intensification at forest margins. The biotas were grouped into eight categories, each of which corresponded to a major functional group considered important or essential to soil function. An accurate inventory of soil organisms can assist in ecosystem management and help sustain agricultural production. The advantages and disadvantages of transect-based and grid-based sampling methods are discussed, illustrated by published protocols ranging from the original "TSBF transect", through versions developed for the alternatives to Slash-and-Burn Project (ASB) to the final schemes (with variants) adopted by the Conservation and Sustainable Management of Below-ground Biodiversity Project (CSM-BGBD). Consideration is given to the place and importance of replication in below-ground biological sampling and it is argued that the new sampling protocols are inclusive, i.e. designed to sample all eight biotic groups in the same field exercise; spatially scaled, i.e. provide biodiversity data at site, locality, landscape and regional levels, and link the data to land use and land cover; and statistically robust, as shown by a partial randomization of plot locations for sampling.

Emotions in a Web-based Learning Environment

The aim of this thesis was to examine emotions in a web-based learning environment (WBLE). Theoretically, the thesis was grounded on the dimensional model of emotions. Four empirical studies were conducted. Study I focused on students’ anxiety and their self-efficacy in computer-using situations. Studies II and III examined the influence of experienced emotions on students’ collaborative visible and non-collaborative invisible activities and lurking in a WBLE. Study II also focused on the antecedents of the emotions students experience in a web-based learning environment. Study IV concentrated on clarifying the differences between emotions experienced in face-to-face and web-based collaborative learning. The results of these studies are reported in four original research articles published in scientific journals. The present studies demonstrate that emotions are important determinants of student behaviour in a web-based learning, and justify the conclusion that interactions on the web can and do have an emotional content. Based on the results of these empirical studies, it can be concluded that the emotions students experience during the web-based learning result mostly from the social interactions rather than from the technological context. The studies indicate that the technology itself is not the only antecedent of students’ emotional reactions in the collaborative web-based learning situations. However, the technology itself also exerted an influence on students’ behaviour. It was found that students’ computer anxiety was associated with their negative expectations of the consequences of using technology-based learning environments in their studies. Moreover, the results also indicated that student behaviours in a WBLE can be divided into three partially overlapping classes: i) collaborative visible ii) non-collaborative invisible activities, and iii) lurking. What is more, students’ emotions experienced during the web-based learning affected how actively they participated in such activities in the environment. Especially lurkers, i.e. students who seldom participated in discussions but frequently visited the online environment, experienced more negatively valenced emotions during the courses than did the other students. This result indicates that such negatively toned emotional experiences can make the lurking individuals less eager to participate in other WBLE courses in the future. Therefore, future research should also focus more precisely on the reasons that cause individuals to lurk in online learning groups, and the development of learning tasks that do not encourage or permit lurking or inactivity. Finally, the results from the study comparing emotional reactions in web-based and face-to-face collaborative learning indicated that the learning by means of web-based communication resulted in more affective reactivity when compared to learning in a face-to-face situation. The results imply that the students in the web-based learning group experienced more intense emotions than the students in the face-to-face learning group.The interpretations of this result are that the lack of means for expressing emotional reactions and perceiving others’ emotions increased the affectivity in the web-based learning groups. Such increased affective reactivity could, for example, debilitate individual’s learning performance, especially in complex learning tasks. Therefore, it is recommended that in the future more studies should be focused on the possibilities to express emotions in a text-based web environment to ensure better means for communicating emotions, and subsequently, possibly decrease the high level of affectivity. However, we do not yet know whether the use of means for communicating emotional expressions via the web (for example, “smileys” or “emoticons”) would be beneficial or disadvantageous in formal learning situations. Therefore, future studies should also focus on assessing how the use of such symbols as a means for expressing emotions in a text-based web environment would affect students’ and teachers’ behaviour and emotional state in web-based learning environments.