A Possible Change in Mass Balance of Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets in the Coming Century

A high-resolution GCM is found to simulate precipitation and surface energy balance of high latitudes with high accuracy. This opens new possibilities to investigate the future mass balance of polar glaciers and its effect on sea level. The surface mass balance of the Greenland and the Antarctic ice sheets is simulated using the ECHAM3 GCM with TI06 horizontal resolution. With this model, two 5-year integrations for the present and doubled carbon dioxide conditions based on the boundary conditions provided by the ECHAM1/T21 transient experiment have been conducted. A comparison of the two experiments over Greenland and Antarctica shows to what extent the effect of climate change on the mass balance on the two largest glaciers of the world can differ. On Greenland one sees a slight decrease in accumulation and a substantial increase in melt, while on Antarctica a large increase in accumulation without melt is projected. Translating the mass balances into terms of sea-level equivalent. the Greenland discharge causes a sea level rise of 1.1 mm yr−1, while the accumulation on Antarctica tends to lower it by 0.9 mm yr−1. The change in the combined mass balance of the two continents is almost zero. The sea level change of the next century can be affected more effectively by the thermal expansion of seawater and the mass balance of smaller glaciers outside of Greenland and Antarctica.

Multimodel projections of stratospheric ozone in the 21st century

Simulations from eleven coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs) employing nearly identical forcings have been used to project the evolution of stratospheric ozone throughout the 21st century. The model-to-model agreement in projected temperature trends is good, and all CCMs predict continued, global mean cooling of the stratosphere over the next 5 decades, increasing from around 0.25 K/decade at 50 hPa to around 1 K/ decade at 1 hPa under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario. In general, the simulated ozone evolution is mainly determined by decreases in halogen concentrations and continued cooling of the global stratosphere due to increases in greenhouse gases (GHGs). Column ozone is projected to increase as stratospheric halogen concentrations return to 1980s levels. Because of ozone increases in the middle and upper stratosphere due to GHGinduced cooling, total ozone averaged over midlatitudes, outside the polar regions, and globally, is projected to increase to 1980 values between 2035 and 2050 and before lower stratospheric halogen amounts decrease to 1980 values. In the polar regions the CCMs simulate small temperature trends in the first and second half of the 21st century in midwinter. Differences in stratospheric inorganic chlorine (Cly) among the CCMs are key to diagnosing the intermodel differences in simulated ozone recovery, in particular in the Antarctic. It is found that there are substantial quantitative differences in the simulated Cly, with the October mean Antarctic Cly peak value varying from less than 2 ppb to over 3.5 ppb in the CCMs, and the date at which the Cly returns to 1980 values varying from before 2030 to after 2050. There is a similar variation in the timing of recovery of Antarctic springtime column ozone back to 1980 values. As most models underestimate peak Cly near 2000, ozone recovery in the Antarctic could occur even later, between 2060 and 2070. In the Arctic the column ozone increase in spring does not follow halogen decreases as closely as in the Antarctic, reaching 1980 values before Arctic halogen amounts decrease to 1980 values and before the Antarctic. None of the CCMs predict future large decreases in the Arctic column ozone. By 2100, total column ozone is projected to be substantially above 1980 values in all regions except in the tropics.

Multimodel assessment of the factors driving stratospheric ozone evolution over the 21st century

The evolution of stratospheric ozone from 1960 to 2100 is examined in simulations from 14 chemistry‐climate models, driven by prescribed levels of halogens and greenhouse gases. There is general agreement among the models that total column ozone reached a minimum around year 2000 at all latitudes, projected to be followed by an increase over the first half of the 21st century. In the second half of the 21st century, ozone is projected to continue increasing, level off, or even decrease depending on the latitude. Separation into partial columns above and below 20 hPa reveals that these latitudinal differences are almost completely caused by differences in the model projections of ozone in the lower stratosphere. At all latitudes, upper stratospheric ozone increases throughout the 21st century and is projected to return to 1960 levels well before the end of the century, although there is a spread among models in the dates that ozone returns to specific historical values. We find decreasing halogens and declining upper atmospheric temperatures, driven by increasing greenhouse gases, contribute almost equally to increases in upper stratospheric ozone. In the tropical lower stratosphere, an increase in upwelling causes a steady decrease in ozone through the 21st century, and total column ozone does not return to 1960 levels in most of the models. In contrast, lower stratospheric and total column ozone in middle and high latitudes increases during the 21st century, returning to 1960 levels well before the end of the century in most models.

Interdecadal enhancement of the Walker circulation over the Tropical Pacific in the late 1990s

The Walker circulation is one of the major components of the large-scale tropical atmospheric circulation and variations in its strength are critical to equatorial Pacific Ocean circulation. It has been argued in the literature that during the 20th century the Walker circulation weakened, and that this weakening was attributable to anthropogenic climate change. By using updated observations, we show that there has been a rapid interdecadal enhancement of the Walker circulation since the late 1990s. Associated with this enhancement is enhanced precipitation in the tropical western Pacific, anomalous westerlies in the upper troposphere, descent in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, and anomalous surface easterlies in the western and central tropical Pacific. The characteristics of associated oceanic changes are a strengthened thermocline slope and an enhanced zonal SST gradient across the tropical Pacific. Many characteristics of these changes are similar to those associated with the mid-1970s climate shift with an opposite sign. We also show that the interdecadal variability of the Walker circulation in the tropical Pacific is inversely correlated to the interdecadal variability of the zonal circulation in the tropical Atlantic. An enhancement of the Walker circulation in the tropical Pacific is associated with a weakening zonal circulation in the tropical Atlantic and vise versa, implying an inter-Atlantic-Pacific connection of the zonal overturning circulation variation. Whether these recent changes will be sustained is not yet clear, but our research highlights the importance of understanding the interdecadal variability, as well as the long-term trends, that influence tropical circulation.

Feedbacks and mechanisms affecting the global sensitivity of glaciers to climate change

Mass loss by glaciers has been an important contributor to sea level rise in the past, and is projected to contribute a substantial fraction of total sea level rise during the 21st century. Here, we use a model of the world's glaciers to quantify equilibrium sensitivities of global glacier mass to climate change, and to investigate the role of changes in glacier hypsometry for long-term mass changes. We find that 21st century glacier-mass loss is largely governed by the glacier's response to 20th century climate change. This limits the influence of 21st century climate change on glacier-mass loss, and explains why there are relatively small differences in glacier-mass loss under greatly different scenarios of climate change. The projected future changes in both temperature and precipitation experienced by glaciers are amplified relative to the global average. The projected increase in precipitation partly compensates for the mass loss caused by warming, but this compensation is negligible at higher temperature anomalies since an increasing fraction of precipitation at the glacier sites is liquid. Loss of low-lying glacier area, and more importantly, eventual complete disappearance of glaciers, strongly limit the projected sea level contribution from glaciers in coming centuries. The adjustment of glacier hypsometry to changes in the forcing strongly reduces the rates of global glacier-mass loss caused by changes in global mean temperature compared to rates of mass loss when hypsometric changes are neglected. This result is a second reason for the relatively weak dependence of glacier-mass loss on future climate scenario, and helps explain why glacier-mass loss in the first half of the 20th century was of the same order of magnitude as in the second half of the 20th century, even though the rate of warming was considerably smaller.

Open solar flux estimates from near-Earth measurements of the interplanetary magnetic field: comparison of the first two perihelion passes of the Ulysses spacecraft

Results from all phases of the orbits of the Ulysses spacecraft have shown that the magnitude of the radial component of the heliospheric field is approximately independent of heliographic latitude. This result allows the use of near- Earth observations to compute the total open flux of the Sun. For example, using satellite observations of the interplanetary magnetic field, the average open solar flux was shown to have risen by 29% between 1963 and 1987 and using the aa geomagnetic index it was found to have doubled during the 20th century. It is therefore important to assess fully the accuracy of the result and to check that it applies to all phases of the solar cycle. The first perihelion pass of the Ulysses spacecraft was close to sunspot minimum, and recent data from the second perihelion pass show that the result also holds at solar maximum. The high level of correlation between the open flux derived from the various methods strongly supports the Ulysses discovery that the radial field component is independent of latitude. We show here that the errors introduced into open solar flux estimates by assuming that the heliospheric field’s radial component is independent of latitude are similar for the two passes and are of order 25% for daily values, falling to 5% for averaging timescales of 27 days or greater. We compare here the results of four methods for estimating the open solar flux with results from the first and second perehelion passes by Ulysses. We find that the errors are lowest (1–5% for averages over the entire perehelion passes lasting near 320 days), for near-Earth methods, based on either interplanetary magnetic field observations or the aa geomagnetic activity index. The corresponding errors for the Solanki et al. (2000) model are of the order of 9–15% and for the PFSS method, based on solar magnetograms, are of the order of 13–47%. The model of Solanki et al. is based on the continuity equation of open flux, and uses the sunspot number to quantify the rate of open flux emergence. It predicts that the average open solar flux has been decreasing since 1987, as Correspondence to: M. Lockwood (m.lockwood@rl.ac.uk) is observed in the variation of all the estimates of the open flux. This decline combines with the solar cycle variation to produce an open flux during the second (sunspot maximum) perihelion pass of Ulysses which is only slightly larger than that during the first (sunspot minimum) perihelion pass.

The impact of secondary pests on Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) crops

The intensification of agriculture and the development of synthetic insecticides enabled worldwide grain production to more than double in the last third of the 20th century. However, the heavy dependence and, in some cases, overuse of insecticides has been responsible for negative environmental and ecological impacts across the globe, such as a reduction in biodiversity, insect resistance to pesticides, negative effects on nontarget species (e.g. natural enemies) and the development of secondary pests. The use of recombinant DNA technology to develop genetically engineered (GE) insect resistant crops could mitigate many of the negative side effects of pesticides. One such genetic alteration enables crops to express toxic crystalline (Cry) proteins from the soil bacteria Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt). Despite the widespread adoption of Bt crops, there are still a range of unanswered questions concerning longer term agro-ecosystem interactions. For instance, insect species that are not susceptible to the expressed toxin can develop into secondary pests and cause significant damage to the crop. Here we review the main causes surrounding secondary pest dynamics in Bt crops and the impact of such outbreaks. Regardless of the causes, if non-susceptible secondary pest populations exceed economic thresholds, insecticide spraying could become the immediate solution at farmers’ disposal, and the sustainable use of this genetic modification technology may be in jeopardy. Based on the literature, recommendations for future research are outlined that will help to improve the knowledge of the possible longterm ecological trophic interactions of employing this technology.

Standing on the shoulders of giants: an examination of the interdisciplinary foundation of relationship marketing

In the 20th century, the scholarly study of human relationships both grew dramatically and simultaneously fragmented into various disciplines and subdisciplines. Although diversity of thought is generally considered helpful for the evolution of scientific fields, the value accrued from interdisciplinary discourse depends on the ability of scholars to integrate multiple perspectives and synthesize foundational works in a systematic manner. The goal of this study is to synthesize foundational theories from social and behavioral sciences that have contributed to an understanding of relationship marketing. In seeking to provide a holistic understanding of the field, we incorporate contributions from the disciplines of marketing, management, psychology, and sociology. In building on our analysis, we synthesize our findings into a conceptual model that examines the systematic dimensions of relationship marketing. The article concludes by identifying key themes for contributors to the Journal of Relationship Marketing to consider going forward.

"We Are All Homeless Wanderers". Transculturality and Modernism in the Works of Edith Södergran, Elias Canetti, Henry Parland and Marguerite Duras

This article investigates the notion of transculturality and applies it to four modernist authors of the 20th century: Edith Södergran, Elias Canetti, Henry Parland and Marguerite Duras. The concept of transculturality is used to reach a better – or at least different – understanding of the selected writers and their respective body of work.

Evolution of representation of the hands in plastic arts

A interação entre arte e ciência foi intensa durante o Renascimento, sofrendo declínio nos anos posteriores com retomada significativa no século XX, principalmente com o uso de técnicas de identificação, datação de obras de arte e o desenvolvimento de novos materiais. O relacionamento entre artes plásticas e Cirurgia da Mão mantêm-se intenso , sendo freqüente o uso de reproduções artísticas da mão nas ilustrações de textos científicos. Objetivando compreender o papel da mão nas artes plásticas, reproduções de obras de artes (esculturas e pinturas) representativas de vários estilos ou períodos da história da arte foram analisadas com enfoque no estudo das mãos. Detalhes anatômicos, relacionamento com outras estruturas do corpo humano, papel na composição e aspectos simbólicos das mãos foram estudados no contexto histórico e artístico de obras de arte do período paleolítico (pré-história) até o século XX. A representação da mão nas artes plásticas está diretamente relacionada ao estilo ou período da obra e à capacidade individual de interpretação e execução do artista.

Macroeconomic policies, sector performance and firm response: the case of Chile's textile goods market

Includes bibliography

Returning to an external debate: the terms of trade for commodities in the twentieth century

Includes bibliography

Review of The Science, Impacts and Monitoring of Drought in Western Canada: Proceedings of the 2004 Prairie Drought Workshop Edited by Dave Sauchyn, Madhav Khandekar, and E. Ray Garnett

Drought is not an unusual phenomenon on the Canadian prairies or the U.S. Great Plains. There were many short-term droughts in the prairies during the 20th century that generally lasted one to two years (e.g., 1961, 1988). The Canadian prairies multi-year drought event (1999-2003+) has been considered similar in severity to the 1930s drought years. The 2004 Prairie Drought Workshop resulted in 76 scientists and resource managers gathering in Calgary, Alberta, to share information on drought science, impacts, and monitoring. Presenters examined the impacts on agriculture, stream flow, forests, and ground water, including potential impacts under a changed climate. Though focused on the Canadian prairies, the information presented could be applied to many parts of the U.S. Great Plains.

Haplotype frequencies based on eight polymorphic sites at the 3' untranslated region of the HLA-G gene in individuals from two different geographical regions of Brazil

The Brazilian population represents an admixture of native Amerindians, Portuguese settlers and Africans who were brought as slaves during the colonization period that began in the 16th century and was followed by waves of immigrations of Europeans and Asians in the 20th century. The contribution of these different ethnic groups to the constitution of Brazilian populations from different geographic regions is variable and, in addition to environmental factors, might act by determining different allele profiles among Brazilian populations from different regions. We studied polymorphic sites at the 3' untranslated region of the HLA-G gene in individuals from a Northeastern Brazilian region and compared them to our previously published data about a Southeastern Brazilian region, located at a distance of 2589 km. Our results showed that most polymorphic sites present a similar distribution in both populations, except for the lower frequency of the +3003C allele in the Northeastern population compared to the Southeastern population. Although differences in genotypic distribution were only significant for the +3003 locus (P = 0.0201), the diversity of haplotypes was distinct for each population. These results are important for casecontrol studies on the association of human leucocyte antigen-G polymorphism with disease and also in terms of the genetic structure of two distinct Brazilian populations.

Alle origini del «romanzo giudiziario» italiano: la figura del delinquente tra letteratura, diritto e scienze mediche

In questo lavoro si conduce un’indagine sulle relazioni tra letteratura, diritto e scienze mediche all’interno del romanzo cosiddetto "giudiziario", sviluppatosi in Italia nel periodo compreso tra l’Unità e i primi anni del XX secolo. La nostra analisi si concentra in particolare sulla costruzione della figura del delinquente, intesa come prodotto specifico della suddetta relazione interdisciplinare. In questa prospettiva, abbiamo rilevato che la caratterizzazione di tale figura costituisce il principale tra i procedimenti narrativi osservabili in vari romanzi del periodo postunitario. Concentrandoci inoltre sulla definizione del genere, abbiamo affrontato l’ormai annoso dibattito sulla nascita (quando non sull’esistenza stessa) del poliziesco italiano, dimostrando come solo all’interno di una stretta relazione tra letteratura, diritto e scienze mediche sia possibile cogliere a pieno il valore di questi romanzi nel processo di costruzione dell’identità nazionale. Il lavoro è diviso in due parti. Nella prima, di carattere storico, si propone una nuova definizione del genere "giudiziario", dopo aver vagliato e discusso le ipotesi sino ad ora avanzate dalla critica. Nella seconda parte si affrontano due casi di studio esemplari: La colonia felice di Carlo Dossi e Il romanzo di Misdea di Edoardo Scarfoglio. Su ognuno di essi abbiamo condotto un’accurata analisi testuale, che ci ha permesso di esaminare la caratterizzazione delle diverse figure delinquenti dimostrando l’efficacia del metodo interdisciplinare adottato con particolare riguardo alle teorie di Cesare Lombroso.