Cenários de mudanças climáticas para a América do Sul : impacto no zoneamento agroclimático da cana-de-açúcar

O Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudanças Climáticas (IPCC) através do seu Quarto Relatório de Avaliação das Mudanças Climáticas Globais (IPCC-AR4), publicado em 2007, atribui as emissões de gases de efeito estufa como a principal causa do aumento médio das temperaturas e alerta para uma elevação entre 1,8 ºC e 6,4 ºC até 2100, podendo modificar assim a aptidão climática para as culturas agrícolas em diversas regiões do planeta. Diante disso, existe a necessidade de substituição dos combustíveis fósseis por fontes renováveis e limpas de energia, como o etanol. A cana-de-açúcar apresenta-se, portanto, como uma cultura estratégica na produção do etanol. O presente trabalho teve como objetivos: 1) avaliar o desempenho dos Modelos Climáticos Globais (MCGs) do IPCC-AR4 na simulação de dados climáticos de temperatura do ar e precipitação pluviométrica para o período anual e mensal; 2) elaborar o zoneamento agroclimático da cana-de-açúcar para a América do Sul considerando o clima referência e o futuro para as décadas de 2020, 2050 e 2080 em função do cenário de emissão A1B considerado pessimista e que usa um equilíbrio entre todas as fontes de energia. Para a avaliação do desempenho dos MCGs, foram utilizados dados climáticos médios mensais observados de precipitação e temperatura do ar provenientes do Climatic Research Unit (CRU) e dados simulados oriundos dos 22 MCGs do IPCC (cenário 20c3m) compreendidos entre o período de 1961-1990, além do Multimodel (ensemble) – MM que é a média da combinação dos dados de todos os modelos. O desempenho dos MCGs foi avaliado pelos índices estatísticos: desvio padrão, correlação, raiz quadrada da média do quadrado das diferenças centralizadas e o “bias” dos dados simulados com os observados, que foram representados no diagrama de Taylor. Para a etapa da elaboração do zoneamento agroclimático procedeu-se o cálculo dos balanços hídricos (referência e futuros) da cultura, pelo método de Thornthwaite & Mather (1955). Para o cenário referência, utilizaram-se dados das médias mensais da precipitação e temperatura provenientes do CRU, enquanto que para as projeções futuras, dados provenientes das anomalias do Multimodel (ensemble) – MM para as décadas de 2020, 2050 e 2080, que foram ajustados, obtendo-se assim as projeções futuras para cada período analisado. Baseado nos mapas temáticos reclassificados de deficiência hídrica anual, temperatura média anual, excedente hídrico anual e no índice de satisfação das necessidades de água (ISNA), realizou-se uma sobreposição dessas informações obtendo assim, os mapas finais do zoneamento agroclimático da cana-de-açúcar. Posteriormente ao zoneamento, realizou-se a análise das transições (ganhos, perdas e persistências) entre as classes de aptidão climática da cultura. Os resultados mostram que o Multimodel (ensemble) – MM para o período mensal apresenta o melhor desempenho entre os modelos analisados. As áreas inaptas correspondem a maior parte da América do Sul e uma expressiva transição entre as classes de aptidão climática da cultura.

O discurso e a ação : análise do processo de mudança no sistema de controle gerencial em uma organização industrial brasileira sob a ótica da teoria institucional

O objetivo desse estudo foi investigar o processo de mudança no sistema de controle gerencial (SCG), analisando a alteração das práticas de controle gerencial na estrutura desse sistema, sob a ótica da teoria institucional. A questão de pesquisa é: como ocorre o processo de mudança no SCG em uma organização industrial brasileira? Para tanto, optou-se por uma abordagem qualitativa do tipo descritiva, num estudo de caso único, utilizando como métodos de coleta de dados entrevistas individuais não estruturadas e semiestruturadas com 11 gestores e usuários do SCG, observação não participante e levantamento documental. A coleta dos dados ocorreu entre agosto/2014 e março/2015. Como método de análise e interpretação de dados foram utilizados elementos da análise do discurso (AD). Os principais referenciais teóricos foram os trabalhos de Meyer e Rowan (1977), Dimaggio e Powel (1983, 1991, 2007), Scott (1995, 2008a, 2008b) e Machado-da- Silva e Vizeu (2007) sobre a teoria institucional; Huy (2001), Beekman, Chenhall e Euske (2007) e Machado-da-Silva, Fonseca e Crubellate (2010) referente ao processo de mudança; e Malmi e Brown (2008) e Simons (1995) referente ao SCG; destacando a aplicação empírica dos modelos teóricos de Malmi e Brown (2008), Simons (1995) e Huy (2001). Na análise dos dados, foi identificado o desenho e o uso do SCG, relatando como está transcorrendo a alteração de suas práticas de controle gerencial, identificando os fatores de estímulo e resistência à institucionalização dessas práticas e quais os atores organizacionais que estão atuando como agentes da mudança. Por fim, foram identificados os aspectos discursivos recorrentes que permeiam o discurso da empresa pesquisada, alinhados ao processo de mudança no SCG. Como contribuições, foi demonstrada a influência dos fatores isomórficos na escolha das práticas de controle gerencial, a evidência de que o SCG é socialmente construído, as implicações da centralização do poder e da ausência de estratégias para o SCG, evidências de que o processo de mudança no SCG não é meramente mecânico ou automatizado e ainda, que o discurso da mudança pode permear a organização sem que a ação seja concretizada, revelando um descompasso entre o discurso e a ação

Implementação de formulações do método dos elementos de contorno para associação de placas no espaço

Tese (doutorado)—Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade de Tecnologia, Departamento de Engenharia Mecânica, 2016.

Domain-Specific Language for Coordination patterns

The integration and composition of software systems requires a good architectural design phase to speed up communications between (remote) components. However, during implementation phase, the code to coordinate such components often ends up mixed in the main business code. This leads to maintenance problems, raising the need for, on the one hand, separating the coordination code from the business code, and on the other hand, providing mechanisms for analysis and comprehension of the architectural decisions once made. In this context our aim is at developing a domain-specific language, CoordL, to describe typical coordination patterns. From our point of view, coordination patterns are abstractions, in a graph form, over the composition of coordination statements from the system code. These patterns would allow us to identify, by means of pattern-based graph search strategies, the code responsible for the coordination of the several components in a system. The recovering and separation of the architectural decisions for a better comprehension of the software is the main purpose of this pattern language

Semi-automatic 3D Segmentation Of Costal Cartilage In CT Data From Pectus Excavatum Patients

One of the current frontiers in the clinical management of Pectus Excavatum (PE) patients is the prediction of the surgical outcome prior to the intervention. This can be done through computerized simulation of the Nuss procedure, which requires an anatomically correct representation of the costal cartilage. To this end, we take advantage of the costal cartilage tubular structure to detect it through multi-scale vesselness filtering. This information is then used in an interactive 2D initialization procedure which uses anatomical maximum intensity projections of 3D vesselness feature images to efficiently initialize the 3D segmentation process. We identify the cartilage tissue centerlines in these projected 2D images using a livewire approach. We finally refine the 3D cartilage surface through region-based sparse field level-sets. We have tested the proposed algorithm in 6 noncontrast CT datasets from PE patients. A good segmentation performance was found against reference manual contouring, with an average Dice coefficient of 0.75±0.04 and an average mean surface distance of 1.69±0.30mm. The proposed method requires roughly 1 minute for the interactive initialization step, which can positively contribute to an extended use of this tool in clinical practice, since current manual delineation of the costal cartilage can take up to an hour.

O planejamento econômico no Brasil: considerações críticas

In the past thirty years, a series of plans have been developed by successive Brazilian governments in a continuing effort to maximize the nation's resources for economic and social growth. This planning history has been quantitatively rich but qualitatively poor. The disjunction has stimulated Professor Mello e Souza to address himself to the problem of national planning and to offer some criticisms of Brazilian planning experience. Though political instability has obviously been a factor promoting discontinuity, his criticisms are aimed at the attitudes and strategic concepts which have sought to link planning to national goals and administration. He criticizes the fascination with techniques and plans to the exclusion of proper diagnosis of the socio-political reality, developing instruments to coordinate and carry out objectives, and creating an administrative structure centralized enough to make national decisions and decentralized enough to perform on the basis of those decisions. Thus, fixed, quantified objectives abound while the problem of functioning mechanisms for the coordinated, rational use of resources has been left unattended. Although his interest and criticism are focused on the process and experience of national planning, he recognized variation in the level and results of Brazilian planning. National plans have failed due to faulty conception of the function of planning. Sectorial plans, save in the sector of the petroleum industry under government responsibility, ha e not succeeded in overcoming the problems of formulation and execution thereby repeating old technical errors. Planning for the private sector has a somewhat brighter history due to the use of Grupos Executivos which has enabled the planning process to transcend the formalism and tradition-bound attitudes of the regular bureaucracy. Regional planning offers two relatively successful experiences, Sudene and the strategy of the regionally oriented autarchy. Thus, planning history in Brazil is not entirely black but a certain shade of grey. The major part of the article, however, is devoted to a descriptive analysis of the national planning experience. The plans included in this analysis are: The Works and Equipment Plan (POE); The Health, Food, Transportation and Energy Plan (Salte); The Program of Goals; The Trienal Plan of Economic and Social Development; and the Plan of Governmental Economic Action (Paeg). Using these five plans for his historical experience the author sets out a series of errors of formulation and execution by which he analyzes that experience. With respect to formulation, he speaks of a lack of elaboration of programs and projects, of coordination among diverse goals, and of provision of qualified staff and techniques. He mentions the absence of the definition of resources necessary to the financing of the plan and the inadequate quantification of sectorial and national goals due to the lack of reliable statistical information. Finally, he notes the failure to coordinate the annual budget with the multi-year plans. He sees the problems of execution as beginning in the absence of coordination between the various sectors of the public administration, the failure to develop an operative system of decentralization, the absence of any system of financial and fiscal control over execution, the difficulties imposed by the system of public accounting, and the absence of an adequate program of allocation for the liberation of resources. He ends by pointing to the failure to develop and use an integrated system of political economic tools in a mode compatible with the objective of the plans. The body of the article analyzes national planning experience in Brazil using these lists of errors as rough model of criticism. Several conclusions emerge from this analysis with regard to planning in Brazil and in developing countries, in general. Plans have generally been of little avail in Brazil because of the lack of a continuous, bureaucratized (in the Weberian sense) planning organization set in an instrumentally suitable administrative structure and based on thorough diagnoses of socio-economic conditions and problems. Plans have become the justification for planning. Planning has come to be conceived as a rational method of orienting the process of decisions through the establishment of a precise and quantified relation between means and ends. But this conception has led to a planning history rimmed with frustration, and failure, because of its rigidity in the face of flexible and changing reality. Rather, he suggests a conception of planning which understands it "as a rational process of formulating decisions about the policy, economy, and society whose only demand is that of managing the instrumentarium in a harmonious and integrated form in order to reach explicit, but not quantified ends". He calls this "planning without plans": the establishment of broad-scale tendencies through diagnosis whose implementation is carried out through an adjustable, coherent instrumentarium of political-economic tools. Administration according to a plan of multiple, integrated goals is a sound procedure if the nation's administrative machinery contains the technical development needed to control the multiple variables linked to any situation of socio-economic change. Brazil does not possess this level of refinement and any strategy of planning relevant to its problems must recognize this. The reforms which have been attempted fail to make this recognition as is true of the conception of planning informing the Brazilian experience. Therefore, unworkable plans, ill-diagnosed with little or no supportive instrumentarium or flexibility have been Brazil's legacy. This legacy seems likely to continue until the conception of planning comes to live in the reality of Brazil.

Synthesis and Coordination Chemistry of a New N-4-Polydentate Class of Pyridyl-Functionalized Scorpionate Ligands: Complexes of Fe-II, Zn-II, V-IV, Pd-II and Use for Heterobimetallic Systems

The new potentially N-4-multidentate pyridyl-functionalized scorpionates 4-((tris-2,2,2-(pyrazol-1-ypethoxy)methyl)pyridine (TpmPy, (1)) and 4-((tris-2,2,2-(3-phenylpyrazol-1-yl)ethoxy)methyl)pyridine (TpmPy(Ph), (2)) have been synthesized and their coordination behavior toward Fe-II, Ni-II, Zn-II, Cu-II, Pd-II, and V-III centers has been studied. Reaction of (1) with Fe(BF4)(2)center dot 6H(2)O yields [Fe(TpmPy)(2)](BF4)(2) (3), that, in the solid state, shows the sandwich structure with trihapto ligand coordination via the pyrazolyl arms, and is completely low spin (LS) until 400 K. Reactions of 2 equiv of (1) or (2) with Zn-II or Ni-II chlorides give the corresponding metal complexes with general formula [MCl2(TpmPy*)(2)] (M = Zn, Ni; TpmPy* = TpmPy, TpmPy(Ph)) (4-7) where the ligand is able to coordinate through either the pyrazolyl rings (in case of [Ni(TpmPy)(2)Cl-2 (5)) or the pyridyl-side (for [ZnCl2(TpmPy)(2)] (4), [ZnCl2(TpmPy(Ph))(2)] (6) and [NiCl2(TpmPy(Ph))(2)] (7)). The reaction of (1) with VCl3 gives [VOCl2(TpmPy)] (8) that shows the N-3-pyrazolyl coordination-mode. Moreover, (1) and react with cis-[PdCl2(CH3CN)(2)] to give the disubstituted complexes [PdCl2(TprnPy)(2)] (9) and [PdCl2(TpmPy(Ph))(2)] (10), respectively, bearing the scorpionate coordinated via the pyridyl group. Compounds (9) and (10) react with Fe(BF4)(2) to give the heterobimetallic Pd/Fe systems [PdCl2(mu-TpmPy)(2)-Fe](BF4)(2) (11) and [PdCl2(mu-TpmPy(Ph))(2)Fe-2(H2O)(6)]BF4)(4) (13), respectively. Compound (11) can also be formed from reaction of (3) with cis-[PdCl2(CH3CN)(2)], while reaction of (3) with Cu(NO3)(2).2.5H(2)O generates [Fe(mu-TpmPy)(2)-Cu(NO3)(2)](BF4)(2) (12), confirming the multidentate ability of the new chelating ligands. The X-ray diffraction analyses of compounds (1), (3), (4), (5), and (9) are also reported.

Avaliação da dose glandular média (MGD) em três sistemas mamográficos

Este estudo tem por objectivos determinar a Dose Glandular Média - Mean Glandular Dose (MGD) - em 3 sistemas de Mamografia e comparar os valores obtidos com os referenciais internacionais. O estudo foi realizado num sistema analógico de Écran-Película (EP) e em dois sistemas de imagem digital (CR e DR). Foi efectuado o cálculo da Entrance Surface Air Kerma (ESAK) e da MGD em três equipamentos a partir de uma amostra de dados referentes a 30 mulheres assintomáticas, com idades compreendidas entre os 40 e 64 anos. Em cada equipamento objecto de análise, foram recolhidos os dados referentes a 10 mulheres. Foram consideradas as projecções crânio-caudal (CC) e oblíqua médio-lateral (MLO). A análise de resultados revelou que o valor de MGD varia quando se compara os três sistemas. Nas incidências CC os valores de MGD obtidos foram de 1,54 mGy (EP), 1,78 mGy (CR) e 0,82 mGy (DR). Nas incidências MLO o valor de MGD foi de 1,53 mGy no sistema EP, de 1,78 mGy no CR e 0,87 mGy no sistema DR. Constata-se que o valor de MGD na incidência de CC é inferior ao valor de MGD na incidência MLO, excepto para o sistema EP. Verifica-se também que o sistema EP apresenta maior variabilidade nos dados de MGD comparativamente com os restantes sistemas. O sistema DR é o que apresenta a menor variabilidade de valores MGD e também valores de MGD mais baixos. Comparando os resultados deste estudo com as referências internacionais, verifica-se que a MGD se encontra abaixo do limite de 2 mGy recomendado. ABSTRACT - This study aims to estimate the Mean Glandular Dose (MGD) associated with three different mammographic systems and compare the results with recommended international reference values. The systems included in the study included a conventional Screen-Film (SF) system and two digital mammography systems (CR and DR). Entrance Surface Air Kerma (ESAK) and MGD associated with each equipment were calculated. A sample of 30 healthy women (age ranging from 40 to 64 years old) undertaking screening mammography was considered in this study. The mammographic exam includes two projections, cranio-caudal (CC) and medio-lateral oblique (MLO). The MGD results obtained for CC projection were 1,54 mGy (SF), 1,78 mGy (CR) and 0,82 mGy (DR). MGD values for the MLO projection were 1,53 mGy (SF), 1,78 mGy (CR) and 0,87 mGy (DR). Results show that MGD value is slightly lower in the CC projection than in MLO, except for the SF system (1,54 mGy; 1,53 mGy). In addition the MGD for the SF system varied more than that associated with the digital systems. The DR system allows a narrow variation of MGD values and also lower MGD values. Comparing this study results with the international references we concluded that MGD values are below the 2 mGy recommended value for the three systems evaluated.

Autenticação de vídeo H.264/AVC

Hoje em dia, há cada vez mais informação audiovisual e as transmissões ou ficheiros multimédia podem ser partilhadas com facilidade e eficiência. No entanto, a adulteração de conteúdos vídeo, como informação financeira, notícias ou sessões de videoconferência utilizadas num tribunal, pode ter graves consequências devido à importância desse tipo de informação. Surge então, a necessidade de assegurar a autenticidade e a integridade da informação audiovisual. Nesta dissertação é proposto um sistema de autenticação de vídeo H.264/Advanced Video Coding (AVC), denominado Autenticação de Fluxos utilizando Projecções Aleatórias (AFPA), cujos procedimentos de autenticação, são realizados ao nível de cada imagem do vídeo. Este esquema permite um tipo de autenticação mais flexível, pois permite definir um limite máximo de modificações entre duas imagens. Para efectuar autenticação é utilizada uma nova técnica de autenticação de imagens, que combina a utilização de projecções aleatórias com um mecanismo de correcção de erros nos dados. Assim é possível autenticar cada imagem do vídeo, com um conjunto reduzido de bits de paridade da respectiva projecção aleatória. Como a informação de vídeo é tipicamente, transportada por protocolos não fiáveis pode sofrer perdas de pacotes. De forma a reduzir o efeito das perdas de pacotes, na qualidade do vídeo e na taxa de autenticação, é utilizada Unequal Error Protection (UEP). Para validação e comparação dos resultados implementou-se um sistema clássico que autentica fluxos de vídeo de forma típica, ou seja, recorrendo a assinaturas digitais e códigos de hash. Ambos os esquemas foram avaliados, relativamente ao overhead introduzido e da taxa de autenticação. Os resultados mostram que o sistema AFPA, utilizando um vídeo com qualidade elevada, reduz o overhead de autenticação em quatro vezes relativamente ao esquema que utiliza assinaturas digitais e códigos de hash.

The folding of knotted proteins: insights from lattice simulations

We carry out systematic Monte Carlo simulations of Go lattice proteins to investigate and compare the folding processes of two model proteins whose native structures differ from each other due to the presence of a trefoil knot located near the terminus of one of the protein chains. We show that the folding time of the knotted fold is larger than that of the unknotted protein and that this difference in folding time is particularly striking in the temperature region below the optimal folding temperature. Both proteins display similar folding transition temperatures, which is indicative of similar thermal stabilities. By using the folding probability reaction coordinate as an estimator of folding progression we have found out that the formation of the knot is mainly a late folding event in our shallow knot system.

The US actuarial balance model for the pay-as-you-go system and its application to Spain

The aim of this paper is to formulate an approximation of the US actuarial balance model and apply it to the Spanish public retirement pension system under various scenarios in order to determine a consistent indicator of the system's financial state comparable to those used by the most advanced social security systems. This will enable us to answer the question as to whether there is any justification for reforming the pension system in Spain. This type of actuarial balance uses projections to show future challenges to the financial side of the pension system deriving basically from ageing, the projected increase in longevity and fluctuations in economic activity. If one is compiled periodically it can provide various indicators to help depoliticize the management of the pay-as-you-go system by bringing the planning horizons of politicians and the system itself closer together.

Teaching and learning mathematics using moodle

This paper summarizes a project that is contributing to a change in the way of teaching and learning Mathematics. Mathematics is a subject of the Accounting and Administration course. In this subject we teach: Functions and Algebra. The aim is that the student understand the basic concepts and is able to apply them in other issues, when possible, establishing a bridge between the issues that they have studied and their application in Accounting. As from this year, the Accounting course falls under in Bologna Process. The teacher and the student roles have changed. The time for theoretical and practical classes has been reduced, so it was necessary to modify the way of teaching and learning. In the theoretical classes we use systems of multimedia projection to present the concepts, and in the practical classes we solve exercises. We also use the Excel and the mathematical open source software wxMaxima. To supplement our theoretical and practical classes we have developed a project called MatActiva based on the Moodle platform offered by PAOL - Projecto de Apoio Online (Online Support Project). With the creation of this new project we wanted to take advantage already obtained results with the previous experiences, giving to the students opportunities to complement their study in Mathematics. One of the great objectives is to motivate students, encourage them to overcome theirs difficulties through an auto-study giving them more confidence. In the MatActiva project the students have a big collection of information about the way of the subject works, which includes the objectives, the program, recommended bibliography, evaluation method and summaries. It works as material support for the practical and theoretical classes, the slides of the theoretical classes are available, the sheets with exercises for the students to do in the classroom and complementary exercises, as well as the exams of previous years. Students can also do diagnostic tests and evaluation tests online. Our approach is a reflexive one, based on the professional experience of the teachers that explore and incorporate new tools of Moodle with their students and coordinate the project MatActiva.

The active mathematics project at ISCAP

This paper summarizes a project that is contributing to a change in the way of teaching and learning Mathematics. Mathematics is a subject of the Accounting and Administration course. In this subject we teach: Functions and Algebra. The aim is that the students understand the basic concepts and is able to apply them in other issues, when possible, establishing a bridge between the issues that they have studied and their application in Accounting. As from this year, the Accounting course falls under in Bologna Process. The teacher and the student roles have changed. The time for theoretical and practical classes has been reduced, so it was necessary to modify the way of teaching and learning. In the theoretical classes we use systems of multimedia projection to present the concepts, and in the practical classes we solve exercises. To supplement our theoretical and practical classes we have developed an active mathematics project called MatActiva based on the Moodle platform offered by PAOL - Projecto de Apoio Online (Online Support Project). In the last versions of Moodle, it is possible use the TeX language to create math questions. Using this tool we created a set of interactive materials. With the creation of this new project we wanted to take advantage already obtained results with the previous experiences, giving to the students opportunities to complement their study in Mathematics. One of the great objectives is to motivate students, encourage them to overcome theirs difficulties through an auto-study, giving them more confidence and the opportunity to seeing others perspectives of the mathematics subjects. In the MatActiva project the students have a big collection of information about the way of the subject works, which includes the objectives, the program, recommended bibliography, evaluation method and summaries. It works as material support for the practical and theoretical classes, the slides of the theoretical classes are available, the sheets with exercises for the students to do in the classroom and complementary exercises, as well as the exams of previous years. Students can also do diagnostic tests and evaluation tests online. Our approach is a reflexive one, based on the professional experience of the teachers that explore and incorporate new tools of Moodle with their students and coordinate the project MatActiva.

Balanced scorecard: estudo de caso de uma empresa de serviços de gestão

Dissertação para a obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Contabilidade e Finanças Orientadora: Doutora Cláudia Lopes

Cooperative scheduling system with emergent swarm based behavior

This paper presents a Swarm based Cooperation Mechanism for scheduling optimization. We intend to conceptualize real manufacturing systems as interacting autonomous entities in order to support decision making in agile manufacturing environments. Agents coordinate their actions automatically without human supervision considering a common objective – global scheduling solution taking advantages from collective behavior of species through implicit and explicit cooperation. The performance of the cooperation mechanism will be evaluated consider implicit cooperation at first stage through ACS, PSO and ABC algorithms and explicit through cooperation mechanism application.