Modelling world investment markets using threshold conditional correlation models

In this paper we propose a parsimonious regime-switching approach to model the correlations between assets, the threshold conditional correlation (TCC) model. This method allows the dynamics of the correlations to change from one state (or regime) to another as a function of observable transition variables. Our model is similar in spirit to Silvennoinen and Teräsvirta (2009) and Pelletier (2006) but with the appealing feature that it does not suffer from the course of dimensionality. In particular, estimation of the parameters of the TCC involves a simple grid search procedure. In addition, it is easy to guarantee a positive definite correlation matrix because the TCC estimator is given by the sample correlation matrix, which is positive definite by construction. The methodology is illustrated by evaluating the behaviour of international equities, govenrment bonds and major exchange rates, first separately and then jointly. We also test and allow for different parts in the correlation matrix to be governed by different transition variables. For this, we estimate a multi-threshold TCC specification. Further, we evaluate the economic performance of the TCC model against a constant conditional correlation (CCC) estimator using a Diebold-Mariano type test. We conclude that threshold correlation modelling gives rise to a significant reduction in portfolio´s variance.

Specific vs general cognitive remediation for executive functioning in schizophrenia: A multicenter randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: This study assesses the benefits of an individualized therapy (RECOS program) compared with the more general cognitive remediation therapy (CRT). METHODS: 138 participants took part with 65 randomized to CRT and 73 to RECOS. In the RECOS group, participants were directed towards one of five training modules (verbal memory, visuo-spatial memory and attention, working memory, selective attention or reasoning) corresponding to their key cognitive concern whereas the CRT group received a standard program. The main outcome was the total score on BADS (Behavioural Assessment of Dysexecutive Syndrome) and the secondary outcomes were: cognition (executive functions; selective attention; visuospatial memory and attention; verbal memory; working memory) and clinical measures (symptoms; insight; neurocognitive complaints; self-esteem). All outcomes were assessed at baseline (T1), week 12 (posttherapy, T2), and follow-up (week 36, i.e., 6months posttherapy, T3). RESULTS: No difference was shown for the main outcome. A significant improvement was found for BADS' profile score for RECOS at T2 and T3, and for CRT at T3. Change in BADS in the RECOS and CRT arms were not significantly different between T1 and T2 (+0.86, p=0.108), or between T1 and T3 (+0.36, p=0.540). Significant improvements were found in several secondary outcomes including cognition (executive functions, selective attention, verbal memory, and visuospatial abilities) and clinician measures (symptoms and awareness to be hampered by cognitive deficits in everyday) in both treatment arms following treatment. Self-esteem improved only in RECOS arm at T3, and working memory improved only in CRT arm at T2 and T3, but there were no differences in changes between arms. CONCLUSIONS: RECOS (specific remediation) and CRT (general remediation) globally showed similar efficacy in the present trial.

Reaction-diffusion wave fronts: Multigeneration biological species under climate change

A generalization of reaction-diffusion models to multigeneration biological species is presented. It is based on more complex random walks than those in previous approaches. The new model is developed analytically up to infinite order. Our predictions for the speed agree to experimental data for several butterfly species better than existing models. The predicted dependence for the speed on the number of generations per year allows us to explain the change in speed observed for a specific invasion

Proteomic analysis of mononuclear cells of patients with minimal-change nephrotic syndrome of childhood.

Background/Aims. Recently, peripheral blood mononuclear cell transcriptome analysis has identified genes that are upregulated in relapsing minimal-change nephrotic syndrome (MCNS). In order to investigate protein expression in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) from relapsing MCNS patients, we performed proteomic comparisons of PBMC from patients with MCNS in relapse and controls. METHODS: PBMC from a total of 20 patients were analysed. PBMC were taken from five patients with relapsing MCNS, four in remission, five patients with other glomerular diseases and six controls. Two dimensional electrophoresis was performed and proteome patterns were compared. RESULTS: Automatic heuristic clustering analysis allowed us to pool correctly the gels from the MCNS patients in the relapse and in the control groups. Using hierarchical population matching, nine spots were found to be increased in PBMC from MCNS patients in relapse. Four spots were identified by mass spectrometry. Three of the four proteins identified (L-plastin, alpha-tropomyosin and annexin III) were cytoskeletal-associated proteins. Using western blot and immunochemistry, L-plastin and alpha-tropomyosin 3 concentrations were found to be enhanced in PBMC from MCNS patients in relapse. Conclusions. These data indicate that a specific proteomic profile characterizes PBMC from MCNS patients in relapse. Proteins involved in PBMC cytoskeletal rearrangement are increased in relapsing MCNS. We hypothesize that T-cell cytoskeletal rearrangement may play a role in the pathogenesis of MCNS by altering the expression of cell surface receptors and by modifying the interaction of these cells with glomerular cells.

Plant traits co-vary with altitude in grasslands and forests in the European Alps

Biological traits that are advantageous under specific ecological conditions should be present in a large proportion of the species within an ecosystem, where those specific conditions prevail. As climatic conditions change, the frequency of certain traits in plant communities is expected to change with increasing altitude. We examined patterns of change for 13 traits in 120 exhaustive inventories of plants along five altitudinal transects (520-3100 m a.s.l.) in grasslands and in forests in western Switzerland. The traits selected for study represented the occupation of space, photosynthesis, reproduction and dispersal. For each plot, the mean trait values or the proportions of the trait states were weighted by species cover and examined in relation to the first axis of a PCA based on local climatic conditions. With increasing altitude in grasslands, we observed a decrease in anemophily and an increase in entomophily complemented by possible selfing; a decrease in diaspores with appendages adapted to ectozoochory, linked to a decrease in achenes and an increase in capsules. In lowlands, pollination and dispersal are ensured by wind and animals. However, with increasing altitude, insects are mostly responsible for pollination, and wind becomes the main natural dispersal vector. Some traits showed a particularly marked change in the alpine belt (e.g., the increase of capsules and the decrease of achenes), confirming that this belt concentrates particularly stressful conditions to plant growth and reproduction (e.g. cold, short growing season) that constrain plants to a limited number of strategies. One adaptation to this stress is to limit investment in dispersal by producing capsules with numerous, tiny seeds that have appendages limited to narrow wings. Forests displayed many of the trends observed in grasslands but with a reduced variability that is likely due to a shorter altitudinal gradient.

Quantitative proteomics reveals subset-specific viral recognition in dendritic cells.

Dendritic cell (DC) populations consist of multiple subsets that are essential orchestrators of the immune system. Technological limitations have so far prevented systems-wide accurate proteome comparison of rare cell populations in vivo. Here, we used high-resolution mass spectrometry-based proteomics, combined with label-free quantitation algorithms, to determine the proteome of mouse splenic conventional and plasmacytoid DC subsets to a depth of 5,780 and 6,664 proteins, respectively. We found mutually exclusive expression of pattern recognition pathways not previously known to be different among conventional DC subsets. Our experiments assigned key viral recognition functions to be exclusively expressed in CD4(+) and double-negative DCs. The CD8alpha(+) DCs largely lack the receptors required to sense certain viruses in the cytoplasm. By avoiding activation via cytoplasmic receptors, including retinoic acid-inducible gene I, CD8alpha(+) DCs likely gain a window of opportunity to process and present viral antigens before activation-induced shutdown of antigen presentation pathways occurs.

Rates of cultural change and patterns of cultural accumulation in stochastic models of social transmission.

Cultural variation in a population is affected by the rate of occurrence of cultural innovations, whether such innovations are preferred or eschewed, how they are transmitted between individuals in the population, and the size of the population. An innovation, such as a modification in an attribute of a handaxe, may be lost or may become a property of all handaxes, which we call "fixation of the innovation." Alternatively, several innovations may attain appreciable frequencies, in which case properties of the frequency distribution-for example, of handaxe measurements-is important. Here we apply the Moran model from the stochastic theory of population genetics to study the evolution of cultural innovations. We obtain the probability that an initially rare innovation becomes fixed, and the expected time this takes. When variation in cultural traits is due to recurrent innovation, copy error, and sampling from generation to generation, we describe properties of this variation, such as the level of heterogeneity expected in the population. For all of these, we determine the effect of the mode of social transmission: conformist, where there is a tendency for each naïve newborn to copy the most popular variant; pro-novelty bias, where the newborn prefers a specific variant if it exists among those it samples; one-to-many transmission, where the variant one individual carries is copied by all newborns while that individual remains alive. We compare our findings with those predicted by prevailing theories for rates of cultural change and the distribution of cultural variation.

Colon-specific deletion of epithelial sodium channel causes sodium loss and aldosterone resistance.

Aldosterone promotes electrogenic sodium reabsorption through the amiloride-sensitive epithelial sodium channel (ENaC). Here, we investigated the importance of ENaC and its positive regulator channel-activating protease 1 (CAP1/Prss8) in colon. Mice lacking the αENaC subunit in colonic superficial cells (Scnn1a(KO)) were viable, without fetal or perinatal lethality. Control mice fed a regular or low-salt diet had a significantly higher amiloride-sensitive rectal potential difference (∆PDamil) than control mice fed a high-salt diet. In Scnn1a(KO) mice, however, this salt restriction-induced increase in ∆PDamil did not occur, and the circadian rhythm of ∆PDamil was blunted. Plasma and urinary sodium and potassium did not change with regular or high-salt diets or potassium loading in control or Scnn1a(KO) mice. However, Scnn1a(KO) mice fed a low-salt diet lost significant amounts of sodium in their feces and exhibited high plasma aldosterone and increased urinary sodium retention. Mice lacking the CAP1/Prss8 in colonic superficial cells (Prss8(KO)) were viable, without fetal or perinatal lethality. Compared with controls, Prss8(KO) mice fed regular or low-salt diets exhibited significantly reduced ∆PDamil in the afternoon, but the circadian rhythm was maintained. Prss8(KO) mice fed a low-salt diet also exhibited sodium loss through feces and higher plasma aldosterone levels. Thus, we identified CAP1/Prss8 as an in vivo regulator of ENaC in colon. We conclude that, under salt restriction, activation of the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system in the kidney compensated for the absence of ENaC in colonic surface epithelium, leading to colon-specific pseudohypoaldosteronism type 1 with mineralocorticoid resistance without evidence of impaired potassium balance.

Neocortical maturation during adolescence: change in neuronal soma dimension.

During adolescence, cognitive abilities increase robustly. To search for possible related structural alterations of the cerebral cortex, we measured neuronal soma dimension (NSD = width times height), cortical thickness and neuronal densities in different types of neocortex in post-mortem brains of five 12-16 and five 17-24 year-olds (each 2F, 3M). Using a generalized mixed model analysis, mean normalized NSD comparing the age groups shows layer-specific change for layer 2 (p < .0001) and age-related differences between categorized type of cortex: primary/primary association cortex (BA 1, 3, 4, and 44) shows a generalized increase; higher-order regions (BA 9, 21, 39, and 45) also show increase in layers 2 and 5 but decrease in layers 3, 4, and 6 while limbic/orbital cortex (BA 23, 24, and 47) undergoes minor decrease (BA 1, 3, 4, and 44 vs. BA 9, 21, 39, and 45: p = .036 and BA 1, 3, 4, and 44 vs. BA 23, 24, and 47: p = .004). These data imply the operation of cortical layer- and type-specific processes of growth and regression adding new evidence that the human brain matures during adolescence not only functionally but also structurally.

GENETIC AND BIOCHEMICAL ANALYSIS OF THE TESTIS-SPECIFIC ZINC FINGER PROTEIN CTCFL/BORIS

Abstract en FrançaisCTCFL a d'abord été identifié comme un paralogue de la protéine ubiquitaire CTCF en raison de sa forte homologie entre leurs onze « zinc fingers », un domaine de liaison à l'ADN. Parmi ses nombreux rôles, la liaison des zinc fingers de CTCF à la région de contrôle de l'empreinte (ICR) maternelle non-méthylée Igf2/H19, contrôle l'expression empreinte (monoallélique) de H19 et IGF2 dans les cellules somatiques. La méthylation de l'ICR Igf2/H19 paternelle est nécessaire à l'expression empreinte de ces deux gènes. Bien que le mécanisme par lequel l'ICR est méthylé soit mal compris, il est connu que l'établissement de la méthylation se produit pendant le développement des cellules germinales mâles et que les ADN méthyltransférases de novo DNMT3A et DNMT3L sont essentiels. Par conséquent, CTCFL fournit un bon candidat pour un rôle dans la méthylation de l'ICR paternelle Igf2/H19 en raison de son expression restreinte à certains types de cellules où la méthylation de l'ICR a lieu (spermatogonies et spermatocytes) ainsi qu'en raison sa capacité à lier les ICR lgf2/HÎ9 dans ces cellules. Les premiers travaux expérimentaux de cette thèse portent sur le rôle possible des mutations de CTCFL chez les patients atteints du syndrome de Silver-Russell (SRS), où une diminution de la méthylation de l'ICR IGF2/H19 a été observée chez 60% d'entre eux. Admettant que CTCFL pourrait être muté chez ces patients, j'ai examiné les mutations possibles de CTCFL chez 35 d'entre eux par séquençage de l'ADN et analyse du nombre de copies d'exons. N'ayant trouvé aucune mutation chez ces patients, cela suggère que les mutations de CTCFL ne sont pas associées au SRS. Les travaux expérimentaux suivants ont porté sur les modifications post-traductionnelles de CTCFL par la protéine SU MO « small ubiquitin-like modifier » (SUMO). La modification de protéines par SU MO change les interactions avec d'autres molécules (ADN ou protéines). Comme CTCFL régule sans doute l'expression d'un certain nombre de gènes dans le cancer et que plusieurs facteurs de transcription sont régulés par SUMO, j'ai mené des expériences pour déterminer si CTCFL est sumoylé. En effet, j'ai observé que CTCFL est sumoylated in vitro et in vivo et j'ai déterminé les deux résidus d'attachement de SUMO aux lysines 181 et 645. Utilisant les mutants de CTCFL K181R et K645R ne pouvant pas être sumoylated, j'ai évalué les conséquences fonctionnelles de la modification par SUMO. Je n'ai trouvé aucun changement significatif dans la localisation subcellulaire, la demi-vie ou la liaison à l'ADN, mais ai constaté que la sumoylation module à la fois {'activation CTCFL-dépendante et la répression de l'expression génique. Il s'agit de la première modification post-traductionnelle décrite pour CTCFL et les conséquences possibles de cette modification sont discutées pour le cancer et les testicules normaux. Avec cette thèse, j'espère avoir ajouté des résultats importants à l'étude de CTCFL et donné quelques idées pour de futures recherches.AbstractJeremiah Bernier-Latmani, Institute of Pathology, University of Lausanne, CHUVCTCFL was first identified as a paralog of the ubiquitous protein CTCF because of high homology between their respective eleven zinc fingers, a DNA binding domain. Among its many roles, CTCF zinc finger-mediated binding to the unmethylated maternal Igf2/H19 imprinting control region (ICR), controls the imprinted (monoallelic) expression of Igf2 and H19 in somatic cells. Methylation of the paternal Igf2/H19 ICR is necessary for the imprinted expression of the two genes. Although the mechanism by which the ICR is methylated is incompletely understood, it is known that establishment of methylation occurs during male germ cell development and the de novo DNA methyltransferases DNMT3A and DNMT3L are essential. Therefore, CTCFL provided a good candidate to play a role in methylation of the paternal Igf2/H19 ICR because of its restricted expression to cell types where ICR methylation takes place (spermatogonia and spermatocytes) and its ability to bind the Igf2/H19 ICR in these cells. The first experimental work of this thesis investigated the possible role of CTCFL mutations in Silver-Russell syndrome (SRS) patients, where it has been observed that 60% of the patients have reduced methylation of the IGF2/HÎ9 ICR. Reasoning that CTCFL could be mutated in these patients, I screened 35 patients for mutations in CTCFL by DNA sequencing and exon copy number analysis, I did not find any mutations in these patients suggesting that mutations of CTCFL are not associated with SRS. The next experimental work of my thesis focused on posttranslational modification of CTCFL by small ubiquitin-like modifier (SUMO) protein. SUMO modification of proteins changes the interactions with other molecules (DNA or protein). As CTCFL arguably regulates the expression of a number of genes in cancer and many transcription factors are regulated by SUMO, I conducted experiments to assess whether CTCFL is sumoylated. I found that CTCFL is sumoylated in vitro and in vivo and determined the two residues of SUMO attachment to be lysines 181 and 645. Using K181R, K645R mutated CTCFL- which cannot be detected to be sumoylated-1 assessed the functional consequences of SUMO modification. I found no significant changes in subcellular localization, half-life or DNA binding, but found that sumoylation modulates both CTCFL-dependent activation and repression of gene expression. This is the first posttranslational modification described for CTCFL and possible consequences of this modification are discussed in both cancer and normal testis. With this thesis, I hope I have added important findings to the study of CTCFL and provide some ideas for future research.

Health investment complementarities under competing risks

Applying the competing--risks model to multi--cause mortality,this paper provides a theoretical and empirical investigation of the positive complementarities that occur between disease--specific policy interventions. We argue that since an individual cannot die twice, competing risks imply that individuals will not waste resources on causes that are not the most immediate, but will make health investments so as to equalize cause--specific mortality. However, equal mortality risk from a variety of diseases does not imply that disease--specific public health interventions are a waste. Rather, a cause--specific intervention produces spillovers to other disease risks, so that the overall reduction in mortality will generally be larger than the direct effect measured on the targeted disease. The assumption that mortality from non--targeted diseases remains the same after a cause--specific intervention under--estimates the true effect of such programs, since the background mortality is also altered as a result of intervention. Analyzing data from one of the most important public health programs ever introduced, the Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI) of the United Nations, we find evidence for the existence of such complementarities, involving causes that are not biomedically, but behaviorally, linked.

Molecular and functional characterization of a novel cardiac-specific human tropomyosin isoform.

BACKGROUND: Tropomyosin (TM), an essential actin-binding protein, is central to the control of calcium-regulated striated muscle contraction. Although TPM1alpha (also called alpha-TM) is the predominant TM isoform in human hearts, the precise TM isoform composition remains unclear. METHODS AND RESULTS: In this study, we quantified for the first time the levels of striated muscle TM isoforms in human heart, including a novel isoform called TPM1kappa. By developing a TPM1kappa-specific antibody, we found that the TPM1kappa protein is expressed and incorporated into organized myofibrils in hearts and that its level is increased in human dilated cardiomyopathy and heart failure. To investigate the role of TPM1kappa in sarcomeric function, we generated transgenic mice overexpressing cardiac-specific TPM1kappa. Incorporation of increased levels of TPM1kappa protein in myofilaments leads to dilated cardiomyopathy. Physiological alterations include decreased fractional shortening, systolic and diastolic dysfunction, and decreased myofilament calcium sensitivity with no change in maximum developed tension. Additional biophysical studies demonstrate less structural stability and weaker actin-binding affinity of TPM1kappa compared with TPM1alpha. CONCLUSIONS: This functional analysis of TPM1kappa provides a possible mechanism for the consequences of the TM isoform switch observed in dilated cardiomyopathy and heart failure patients.

Building adaptive capacity and resilience to climate change in the water sector in Cape Verde

Purpose of the evaluation This is a scheduled standard mid-term evaluation (MTR) of a UNDP implemented GEF LDCF co-financed project. It is conducted by a team of an international and a national independent evaluator. The objective of the MTR, as set out in the Terms of Reference (TORs; Annex 1), is to provide an independent analysis of the progress of the project so far. The MTR aims to:  identify potential project design problems,  assess progress towards the achievement of the project objective and outcomes,  identify and document lessons learned (including lessons that might improve design and implementation of other projects, including UNDP-GEF supported projects), and  make recommendations regarding specific actions that should be taken to improve the project. The MTR is intended to assess signs of project success or failure and identify the necessary changes to be made. The project commenced its implementation in the first half of 2010 with the recruitment of project staff. According to the updated project plan, it is due to close in July 201410 with operations scaling down in December 2013 due to funding limits. Because of a slow implementation start, the mid-term evaluation was delayed to July 201311 The intended target audience of the evaluation are:  The project team and decision makers in the INGRH  The GEF and UNFCCC Operational Focal Points  The project partners and beneficiaries  UNDP in Cape Verde as well as the regional and headquarter (HQ) office levels  The GEF Secretariat.

Iowa Climate Change Advisory Council Final Report 2008.

On April 27, 2007, Iowa Governor Chet Culver signed Senate File 485, a bill related to greenhouse gas emissions. Part of this bill created the Iowa Climate Change Advisory Council (ICCAC), which consists of 23 governor-appointed members from various stakeholder groups, and 4 nonvoting, ex officio members from the General Assembly. ICCAC’s immediate responsibilities included submitting a proposal to the Governor and General Assembly that addresses policies, cost-effective strategies, and multiple scenarios designed to reduce statewide greenhouse gas emissions. Further, a preliminary report was submitted in January 2008, with a final proposal submitted in December 2008. In the Final Report, the Council presents two scenarios designed to reduce statewide greenhouse gas emissions by 50% and 90% from a 2005 baseline by the year 2050. For the 50% reduction by 2050, the Council recommends approximately a 1% reduction by 2012 and an 11% reduction by 2020. For the 90% reduction scenario, the Council recommends a 3% reduction by 2012 and a 22% reduction 2020. These interim targets were based on a simple extrapolation assuming a linear rate of reduction between now and 2050. In providing these scenarios for your consideration, ICCAC approved 56 policy options from a large number of possibilities. There are more than enough options to reach the interim and final emission targets in both the 50% and 90% reduction scenarios. Direct costs and cost savings of these policy options were also evaluated with the help of The Center for Climate Strategies, who facilitated the process and provided technical assistance throughout the entire process, and who developed the Iowa Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Forecast in close consultation with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources (IDNR) and many Council and Sub-Committee members. About half of the policy options presented in this report will not only reduce GHG emissions but are highly cost-effective and will save Iowans money. Still other options may require significant investment but will create jobs, stimulate energy independence, and advance future regional or federal GHG programs.

Facteurs de risque fracturaire, nouveaux traitements: comment evolue la prise en charge de l'ostéoporose de la personne agée [Fracture risk, new treatments: how does the management of the osteoporosis of elderly change?]

Osteoporosis of elderly is a growing medical, economic and health-care problem. It is due to the increase of the life expectancy and the number of osteoporotic fractures. With the new Swiss-specific tool FRAX and the development of inpatients fracture trajectory, we can better identify patients with high risk of fracture. An appropriate treatment can be proposed more quickly. The follow-up of bone markers increases the treatment efficiency. With a better identification, treatment and follow-up of osteoporosis of elderly patients, we can ameliorate the patient's quality of life and decrease the number of osteoporotic fractures with a good cost-effectiveness ratio.