A mixture density network approach to modelling and exploiting uncertainty in nonlinear control problems

In nonlinear and stochastic control problems, learning an efficient feed-forward controller is not amenable to conventional neurocontrol methods. For these approaches, estimating and then incorporating uncertainty in the controller and feed-forward models can produce more robust control results. Here, we introduce a novel inversion-based neurocontroller for solving control problems involving uncertain nonlinear systems which could also compensate for multi-valued systems. The approach uses recent developments in neural networks, especially in the context of modelling statistical distributions, which are applied to forward and inverse plant models. Provided that certain conditions are met, an estimate of the intrinsic uncertainty for the outputs of neural networks can be obtained using the statistical properties of networks. More generally, multicomponent distributions can be modelled by the mixture density network. Based on importance sampling from these distributions a novel robust inverse control approach is obtained. This importance sampling provides a structured and principled approach to constrain the complexity of the search space for the ideal control law. The developed methodology circumvents the dynamic programming problem by using the predicted neural network uncertainty to localise the possible control solutions to consider. A nonlinear multi-variable system with different delays between the input-output pairs is used to demonstrate the successful application of the developed control algorithm. The proposed method is suitable for redundant control systems and allows us to model strongly non-Gaussian distributions of control signal as well as processes with hysteresis. �� 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

High-Order Control Variations and Small-Time Local Controllability

The importance of ���control variations��� for obtaining local approximations of the reachable set of nonlinear control systems is well known. Heuristically, if one can construct control variations in all possible directions, then the considered control system is small-time locally controllable (STLC). Two concepts of control variations of higher order are introduced for the case of smooth control systems. The relation between these variations and the small-time local controllability is studied and a new sufficient STLC condition is proved.

Optimization of adaptive traffic signal control with transit signal priority at isolated intersections using parallel genetic algorithms

Optimization of adaptive traffic signal timing is one of the most complex problems in traffic control systems. This dissertation presents a new method that applies the parallel genetic algorithm (PGA) to optimize adaptive traffic signal control in the presence of transit signal priority (TSP). The method can optimize the phase plan, cycle length, and green splits at isolated intersections with consideration for the performance of both the transit and the general vehicles. Unlike the simple genetic algorithm (GA), PGA can provide better and faster solutions needed for real-time optimization of adaptive traffic signal control. ^ An important component in the proposed method involves the development of a microscopic delay estimation model that was designed specifically to optimize adaptive traffic signal with TSP. Macroscopic delay models such as the Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) delay model are unable to accurately consider the effect of phase combination and phase sequence in delay calculations. In addition, because the number of phases and the phase sequence of adaptive traffic signal may vary from cycle to cycle, the phase splits cannot be optimized when the phase sequence is also a decision variable. A "flex-phase" concept was introduced in the proposed microscopic delay estimation model to overcome these limitations. ^ The performance of PGA was first evaluated against the simple GA. The results show that PGA achieved both faster convergence and lower delay for both under- or over-saturated traffic conditions. A VISSIM simulation testbed was then developed to evaluate the performance of the proposed PGA-based adaptive traffic signal control with TSP. The simulation results show that the PGA-based optimizer for adaptive TSP outperformed the fully actuated NEMA control in all test cases. The results also show that the PGA-based optimizer was able to produce TSP timing plans that benefit the transit vehicles while minimizing the impact of TSP on the general vehicles. The VISSIM testbed developed in this research provides a powerful tool to design and evaluate different TSP strategies under both actuated and adaptive signal control. ^

Threat Analysis of BlackEnergy Malware for Synchrophasor based Real-time Control and Monitoring in Smart Grid

The BlackEnergy malware targeting critical infrastructures has a long history. It evolved over time from a simple DDoS platform to a quite sophisticated plug-in based malware. The plug-in architecture has a persistent malware core with easily installable attack specific modules for DDoS, spamming, info-stealing, remote access, boot-sector formatting etc. BlackEnergy has been involved in several high profile cyber physical attacks including the recent Ukraine power grid attack in December 2015. This paper investigates the evolution of BlackEnergy and its cyber attack capabilities. It presents a basic cyber attack model used by BlackEnergy for targeting industrial control systems. In particular, the paper analyzes cyber threats of BlackEnergy for synchrophasor based systems which are used for real-time control and monitoring functionalities in smart grid. Several BlackEnergy based attack scenarios have been investigated by exploiting the vulnerabilities in two widely used synchrophasor communication standards: (i) IEEE C37.118 and (ii) IEC 61850-90-5. Specifically, the paper addresses reconnaissance, DDoS, man-in-the-middle and replay/reflection attacks on IEEE C37.118 and IEC 61850-90-5. Further, the paper also investigates protection strategies for detection and prevention of BlackEnergy based cyber physical attacks.

Application of multivariable control using artificial neural networks in a debutanizer distillation column

LOPES, Jose Soares Batista et al. Application of multivariable control using artificial neural networks in a debutanizer distillation column.In: INTERNATIONAL CONGRESS OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERING - COBEM, 19, 5-9 nov. 2007, Brasilia. Anais... Brasilia, 2007

Residence Time Distribution (Rtd) Associated with Statistical Weighted Moments to Fit Mathematical Models Using In Industrial Systems Diagnosis

This work presents a computational, called MOMENTS, code developed to be used in process control to determine a characteristic transfer function to industrial units when radiotracer techniques were been applied to study the unit��s performance. The methodology is based on the measuring the residence time distribution function (RTD) and calculate the first and second temporal moments of the tracer data obtained by two scintillators detectors NaI positioned to register a complete tracer movement inside the unit. Non linear regression technique has been used to fit various mathematical models and a statistical test was used to select the best result to the transfer function. Using the code MOMENTS, twelve different models can be used to fit a curve and calculate technical parameters to the unit.

Application of multivariable control using artificial neural networks in a debutanizer distillation column

LOPES, Jose Soares Batista et al. Application of multivariable control using artificial neural networks in a debutanizer distillation column.In: INTERNATIONAL CONGRESS OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERING - COBEM, 19, 5-9 nov. 2007, Brasilia. Anais... Brasilia, 2007

Navega����o de um rob�� m��vel baseado em um modelo de consci��ncia artificial

This work presents a study about a the Baars-Franklin architecture, which defines a model of computational consciousness, and use it in a mobile robot navigation task. The insertion of mobile robots in dynamic environments carries a high complexity in navigation tasks, in order to deal with the constant environment changes, it is essential that the robot can adapt to this dynamism. The approach utilized in this work is to make the execution of these tasks closer to how human beings react to the same conditions by means of a model of computational consci-ousness. The LIDA architecture (Learning Intelligent Distribution Agent) is a cognitive system that seeks tomodel some of the human cognitive aspects, from low-level perceptions to decision making, as well as attention mechanism and episodic memory. In the present work, a computa-tional implementation of the LIDA architecture was evaluated by means of a case study, aiming to evaluate the capabilities of a cognitive approach to navigation of a mobile robot in dynamic and unknown environments, using experiments both with virtual environments (simulation) and a real robot in a realistic environment. This study concluded that it is possible to obtain benefits by using conscious cognitive models in mobile robot navigation tasks, presenting the positive and negative aspects of this approach.

Sistema supervisor inteligente para procesos de producci��n de petr��leo

Maximizar la producci��n de pozos de crudo pesado y extra pesado es el principal beneficio que se desea obtener de los sistemas de control que est��n corrientemente operativos en empresas de petr��leo. Dada la naturaleza compleja y cambiante con el tiempo de los m��todos existentes de levantamiento artificial para extracci��n de crudo, se dificulta el cumplimiento de las especificaciones pre establecidas para el procesamiento del crudo por parte de los lazos de control regulatorios. Tomando esto en cuenta, en ��ste trabajo se propone un sistema de supervisi��n inteligente que permite detectar cambios en las condiciones de operaci��n del proceso productivo y realizar ajustes autom��ticos de sus consignas. Adem��s, el sistema supervisor propuesto tiene la capacidad de detectar fallas en los sensores involucrados en los lazos de control, garantizando de esta manera una operaci��n confiable del proceso. La propuesta fue probada en un pozo de petr��leo real obteni��ndose resultados que superaron las expectativas iniciales.

Del videojuego a la realidad : sistema interactivo para la seguridad vial

El vertiginoso crecimiento de los centros urbanos, las tecnolog��as emergentes y la demanda de nuevos servicios por parte de la poblaci��n plantea encaminar esfuerzos hacia el desarrollo de las ciudades inteligentes. ��ste concepto ha tomado fuerza entre los sectores pol��tico, econ��mico, social, acad��mico, ambiental y civil; de forma paralela, se han generado iniciativas que conducen hacia la integraci��n de la infraestructura, la tecnolog��a y los servicios para los ciudadanos. En ��ste contexto, una de las problem��ticas con mayor impacto en la sociedad es la seguridad vial. Es necesario contar con mecanismos que disminuyan la accidentalidad, mejoren la atenci��n a incidentes, optimicen la movilidad urbana y planeaci��n municipal, ayuden a reducir el consumo de combustible y la emisi��n de gases de efecto de invernadero, as�� como ofrecer informaci��n din��mica y efectiva a los viajeros. En este art��culo se describen dos (2) enfoques que contribuyen de manera eficiente dicho problema: los videojuegos como juegos serios y los sistemas de transporte inteligente. Ambos enfoques est��n encaminados a evitar colisiones y su dise��o e implementaci��n requieren componentes altamente tecnol��gicos (e.g. sistemas telem��ticos e inform��ticos, inteligencia artificial, procesamiento de im��genes y modelado 3D).

Pressure management in water distribution systems: current status, proposals, and future trends

Pressure management (PM) is commonly used in water distribution systems (WDSs). In the last decade, a strategic objective in the field has been the development of new scientific and technical methods for its implementation. However, due to a lack of systematic analysis of the results obtained in practical cases, progress has not always been reflected in practical actions. To address this problem, this paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the most innovative issues related to PM. The methodology proposed is based on a case-study comparison of qualitative concepts that involves published work from 140 sources. The results include a qualitative analysis covering four aspects: (1) the objectives yielded by PM; (2) types of regulation, including advanced control systems through electronic controllers; (3) new methods for designing districts; and (4) development of optimization models associated with PM. The evolution of the aforementioned four aspects is examined and discussed. Conclusions regarding the current status of each factor are drawn and proposals for future research outlined

El desempe��o de los sistemas de control sobre la hacienda p��blica: una aproximaci��n desde la comisi��n legal de cuentas, el ��ndice de desempe��o integral y las relaciones t��cnicas de la Contralor��a

En 1991 Colombia presenci�� la promulgaci��n de una nueva Carta Pol��tica que trajo consigo renovadoras esperanzas y gener�� expectativas muy altas. La presente investigaci��n examina y analiza las transformaciones y limitaciones de los sistemas de control sobre la Hacienda P��blica, propuestos por esta nueva Constituci��n. En este sentido, se caracteriza y se cuestiona el funcionamiento del nuevo sistema de control fiscal, del sistema de control pol��tico y finalmente del sistema de control econ��mico y financiero. Los resultados de este trabajo son reflexiones a prop��sito de las fallas que han dilucidado estos sistemas desde su implementaci��n, y fueron posibles gracias a la revisi��n sistem��tica de informes institucionales, documentos acad��micos y trabajo de campo con los funcionarios de las entidades a cargo del control.

Dynamic Modeling and Seasonal Performance Evaluation of Air-to-Water Heat Pump Systems

In this Thesis a series of numerical models for the evaluation of the seasonal performance of reversible air-to-water heat pump systems coupled to residential and non-residential buildings are presented. The exploitation of the energy saving potential linked to the adoption of heat pumps is a hard task for designers due to the influence on their energy performance of several factors, like the external climate variability, the heat pump modulation capacity, the system control strategy and the hydronic loop configuration. The aim of this work is to study in detail all these aspects. In the first part of this Thesis a series of models which use a temperature class approach for the prediction of the seasonal performance of reversible air source heat pumps are shown. An innovative methodology for the calculation of the seasonal performance of an air-to-water heat pump has been proposed as an extension of the procedure reported by the European standard EN 14825. This methodology can be applied not only to air-to-water single-stage heat pumps (On-off HPs) but also to multi-stage (MSHPs) and inverter-driven units (IDHPs). In the second part, dynamic simulation has been used with the aim to optimize the control systems of the heat pump and of the HVAC plant. A series of dynamic models, developed by means of TRNSYS, are presented to study the behavior of On-off HPs, MSHPs and IDHPs. The main goal of these dynamic simulations is to show the influence of the heat pump control strategies and of the lay-out of the hydronic loop used to couple the heat pump to the emitters on the seasonal performance of the system. A particular focus is given to the modeling of the energy losses linked to on-off cycling.

Active Control of the Acoustic Field in a Vehicle Cabin

In this thesis, a thorough investigation on acoustic noise control systems for realistic automotive scenarios is presented. The thesis is organized in two parts dealing with the main topics treated: Active Noise Control (ANC) systems and Virtual Microphone Technique (VMT), respectively. The technology of ANC allows to increase the driver's/passenger's comfort and safety exploiting the principle of mitigating the disturbing acoustic noise by the superposition of a secondary sound wave of equal amplitude but opposite phase. Performance analyses of both FeedForwrd (FF) and FeedBack (FB) ANC systems, in experimental scenarios, are presented. Since, environmental vibration noises within a car cabin are time-varying, most of the ANC solutions are adaptive. However, in this work, an effective fixed FB ANC system is proposed. Various ANC schemes are considered and compared with each other. In order to find the best possible ANC configuration which optimizes the performance in terms of disturbing noise attenuation, a thorough research of \gls{KPI}, system parameters and experimental setups design, is carried out. In the second part of this thesis, VMT, based on the estimation of specific acoustic channels, is investigated with the aim of generating a quiet acoustic zone around a confined area, e.g., the driver's ears. Performance analysis and comparison of various estimation approaches is presented. Several measurement campaigns were performed in order to acquire a sufficient duration and number of microphone signals in a significant variety of driving scenarios and employed cars. To do this, different experimental setups were designed and their performance compared. Design guidelines are given to obtain good trade-off between accuracy performance and equipment costs. Finally, a preliminary analysis with an innovative approach based on Neural Networks (NNs) to improve the current state of the art in microphone virtualization is proposed.