Integrated Bayesian network frameworks for modelling complex ecological issues

Ecological problems are typically multi faceted and need to be addressed from a scientific and a management perspective. There is a wealth of modelling and simulation software available, each designed to address a particular aspect of the issue of concern. Choosing the appropriate tool, making sense of the disparate outputs, and taking decisions when little or no empirical data is available, are everyday challenges facing the ecologist and environmental manager. Bayesian Networks provide a statistical modelling framework that enables analysis and integration of information in its own right as well as integration of a variety of models addressing different aspects of a common overall problem. There has been increased interest in the use of BNs to model environmental systems and issues of concern. However, the development of more sophisticated BNs, utilising dynamic and object oriented (OO) features, is still at the frontier of ecological research. Such features are particularly appealing in an ecological context, since the underlying facts are often spatial and temporal in nature. This thesis focuses on an integrated BN approach which facilitates OO modelling. Our research devises a new heuristic method, the Iterative Bayesian Network Development Cycle (IBNDC), for the development of BN models within a multi-field and multi-expert context. Expert elicitation is a popular method used to quantify BNs when data is sparse, but expert knowledge is abundant. The resulting BNs need to be substantiated and validated taking this uncertainty into account. Our research demonstrates the application of the IBNDC approach to support these aspects of BN modelling. The complex nature of environmental issues makes them ideal case studies for the proposed integrated approach to modelling. Moreover, they lend themselves to a series of integrated sub-networks describing different scientific components, combining scientific and management perspectives, or pooling similar contributions developed in different locations by different research groups. In southern Africa the two largest free-ranging cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) populations are in Namibia and Botswana, where the majority of cheetahs are located outside protected areas. Consequently, cheetah conservation in these two countries is focussed primarily on the free-ranging populations as well as the mitigation of conflict between humans and cheetahs. In contrast, in neighbouring South Africa, the majority of cheetahs are found in fenced reserves. Nonetheless, conflict between humans and cheetahs remains an issue here. Conservation effort in South Africa is also focussed on managing the geographically isolated cheetah populations as one large meta-population. Relocation is one option among a suite of tools used to resolve human-cheetah conflict in southern Africa. Successfully relocating captured problem cheetahs, and maintaining a viable free-ranging cheetah population, are two environmental issues in cheetah conservation forming the first case study in this thesis. The second case study involves the initiation of blooms of Lyngbya majuscula, a blue-green algae, in Deception Bay, Australia. L. majuscula is a toxic algal bloom which has severe health, ecological and economic impacts on the community located in the vicinity of this algal bloom. Deception Bay is an important tourist destination with its proximity to Brisbane, Australia’s third largest city. Lyngbya is one of several algae considered to be a Harmful Algal Bloom (HAB). This group of algae includes other widespread blooms such as red tides. The occurrence of Lyngbya blooms is not a local phenomenon, but blooms of this toxic weed occur in coastal waters worldwide. With the increase in frequency and extent of these HAB blooms, it is important to gain a better understanding of the underlying factors contributing to the initiation and sustenance of these blooms. This knowledge will contribute to better management practices and the identification of those management actions which could prevent or diminish the severity of these blooms.

Automated centralised separation management with onboard decision support

This paper proposes a novel automated separation management concept in which onboard decision support is integrated within a centralised air traffic separation management system. The onboard decision support system involves a decentralised separation manager that can overrule air traffic management instructions under certain circumstances. This approach allows the advantages of both centralised and decentralised concepts to be combined (and disadvantages of each separation management approach to be mitigated). Simulation studies are used to illustrate the potential benefits of the combined separation management concept.

Capabilities for strategic infrastructure asset management

Infrastructure organisations are operating in an increasingly challenging business environment as a result of globalisation, privatisation and deregulation. Under such circumstances, asset managers need to manage their infrastructure assets effectively in order to contribute to the overall performance of their organisation. In an external business environment that is constantly changing, extant literature on strategic management advocates a resourced--�]based view (RBV) approach that focuses on factors internal to the organisation such as resources and capabilities to sustain organisation performance. The aim of this study is to explore the core capabilities needed in the management of infrastructure assets. Using a multiple case study research strategy focusing on transport infrastructure, this research firstly examines the goals of infrastructure asset management and their alignment with broader corporate goals of an infrastructure organisation. It then examines the strategic infrastructure asset management processes that are needed to achieve these goals. The core capabilities that can support the strategic infrastructure asset management processes are then identified. This research produced a number of findings. First, it provided empirical evidence that asset management goals are being pursued with the aim of supporting the broader business goals of infrastructure organisations. Second, through synthesising the key asset management processes deemed necessary to achieve the asset management goals, a strategic infrastructure asset management model is proposed. Third, it identified five core capabilities namely stakeholder connectivity, cross-functional, relational, technology absorptive and integrated information management capability as central to executing the strategic infrastructure asset management processes well. These findings culminate in the development of a capability model to improve the performance of infrastructure assets.

Sustainable infrastructure assets : capability for infrastructure capacity management

Building for a sustainable environment requires sustainable infrastructure assets. Infrastructure capacity management is the process of ensuring optimal provision of such infrastructure assets. Effectiveness in this process will enable the infrastructure asset owners and its stakeholders to receive full value on their investment. Business research has shown that an organisation can only achieve business value when it has the right capabilities. This paradigm can also be applied to infrastructure capacity management. With limited access to resources, the challenge for infrastructure organisations is to identify and develop core capabilities to enable infrastructure capacity management. This chapter explores the concept of capability and identifies the core capability needed in infrastructure capacity management. Through a case study of the Port of Brisbane, this chapter shows that infrastructure organisations must develop their intelligence gathering capability to effectively manage the capacity of their infrastructure assets.

A decision support system for sustainable urban development : the integrated land use and transportation indexing model

Broad, early definitions of sustainable development have caused confusion and hesitation among local authorities and planning professionals. This confusion has arisen because loosely defined principles of sustainable development have been employed when setting policies and planning projects, and when gauging the efficiencies of these policies in the light of designated sustainability goals. The question of how this theory-rhetoric-practice gap can be filled is the main focus of this chapter. It examines the triple bottom line approach–one of the sustainability accounting approaches widely employed by governmental organisations–and the applicability of this approach to sustainable urban development. The chapter introduces the ‘Integrated Land Use and Transportation Indexing Model’ that incorporates triple bottom line considerations with environmental impact assessment techniques via a geographic, information systems-based decision support system. This model helps decision-makers in selecting policy options according to their economic, environmental and social impacts. Its main purpose is to provide valuable knowledge about the spatial dimensions of sustainable development, and to provide fine detail outputs on the possible impacts of urban development proposals on sustainability levels. In order to embrace sustainable urban development policy considerations, the model is sensitive to the relationship between urban form, travel patterns and socio-economic attributes. Finally, the model is useful in picturing the holistic state of urban settings in terms of their sustainability levels, and in assessing the degree of compatibility of selected scenarios with the desired sustainable urban future.

Teachers’ conceptions of essential knowledge for integrated social education : a middle years of schooling perspective from Australia

Integrated social education in Australia is a divisive educational issue. The last decade has been marked by a controversial integrated social studies curriculum called Studies of Society and Environment (SOSE) where history, geography and environmental studies were integrated with civics and citizenship. The introduction of a compulsory K-10 Australian Curriculum from 2011, however, marks the return to history and geography and the abandonment of SOSE. Curriculum reform aside, what do teachers think is essential knowledge for middle years social education? The paper reports on a phenomenographical exploration of thirty-one middle school teachers’ conceptions of essential knowledge for SOSE. Framed by Shulman’s (1986, 1987) theoretical framework of the knowledge base for teaching, the research identified seven qualitatively different ways of understanding essential knowledge for integrated social education. The study indicates a practice-based theorization of integrated social education that justifies attention to disciplinary process and teacher identity in middle school social education.

A process for the management of physical infrastructure

Physical infrastructure assets are important components of our society and our economy. They are usually designed to last for many years, are expected to be heavily used during their lifetime, carry considerable load, and are exposed to the natural environment. They are also normally major structures, and therefore present a heavy investment, requiring constant management over their life cycle to ensure that they perform as required by their owners and users. Given a complex and varied infrastructure life cycle, constraints on available resources, and continuing requirements for effectiveness and efficiency, good management of infrastructure is important. While there is often no one best management approach, the choice of options is improved by better identification and analysis of the issues, by the ability to prioritise objectives, and by a scientific approach to the analysis process. The abilities to better understand the effect of inputs in the infrastructure life cycle on results, to minimise uncertainty, and to better evaluate the effect of decisions in a complex environment, are important in allocating scarce resources and making sound decisions. Through the development of an infrastructure management modelling and analysis methodology, this thesis provides a process that assists the infrastructure manager in the analysis, prioritisation and decision making process. This is achieved through the use of practical, relatively simple tools, integrated in a modular flexible framework that aims to provide an understanding of the interactions and issues in the infrastructure management process. The methodology uses a combination of flowcharting and analysis techniques. It first charts the infrastructure management process and its underlying infrastructure life cycle through the time interaction diagram, a graphical flowcharting methodology that is an extension of methodologies for modelling data flows in information systems. This process divides the infrastructure management process over time into self contained modules that are based on a particular set of activities, the information flows between which are defined by the interfaces and relationships between them. The modular approach also permits more detailed analysis, or aggregation, as the case may be. It also forms the basis of ext~nding the infrastructure modelling and analysis process to infrastructure networks, through using individual infrastructure assets and their related projects as the basis of the network analysis process. It is recognised that the infrastructure manager is required to meet, and balance, a number of different objectives, and therefore a number of high level outcome goals for the infrastructure management process have been developed, based on common purpose or measurement scales. These goals form the basis of classifYing the larger set of multiple objectives for analysis purposes. A two stage approach that rationalises then weights objectives, using a paired comparison process, ensures that the objectives required to be met are both kept to the minimum number required and are fairly weighted. Qualitative variables are incorporated into the weighting and scoring process, utility functions being proposed where there is risk, or a trade-off situation applies. Variability is considered important in the infrastructure life cycle, the approach used being based on analytical principles but incorporating randomness in variables where required. The modular design of the process permits alternative processes to be used within particular modules, if this is considered a more appropriate way of analysis, provided boundary conditions and requirements for linkages to other modules, are met. Development and use of the methodology has highlighted a number of infrastructure life cycle issues, including data and information aspects, and consequences of change over the life cycle, as well as variability and the other matters discussed above. It has also highlighted the requirement to use judgment where required, and for organisations that own and manage infrastructure to retain intellectual knowledge regarding that infrastructure. It is considered that the methodology discussed in this thesis, which to the author's knowledge has not been developed elsewhere, may be used for the analysis of alternatives, planning, prioritisation of a number of projects, and identification of the principal issues in the infrastructure life cycle.

Assessing wet crashes for the skid resistance management of road assets

Australia, road crash trauma costs the nation A$15 billion annually whilst the US estimates an economic impact of around US$ 230 billion on its network. Worldwide economic cost of road crashes is estimated to be around US$ 518 billion each year. Road accidents occur due to a number of factors including driver behaviour, geometric alignment, vehicle characteristics, environmental impacts, and the type and condition of the road surfacing. Skid resistance is considered one of the most important road surface characteristics because it has a direct effect on traffic safety. In 2005, Austroads (the Association of Australian and New Zealand Road Transport and Traffic Authorities) published a guideline for the management of skid resistance and Queensland Department of Main Roads (QDMR) developed a skid resistance management plan (SRMP). The current QDMR strategy is based on rationale analytical methodology supported by field inspection with related asset management decision tools. The Austroads’s guideline and QDMR's skid resistance management plan have prompted QDMR to review its skid resistance management practice. As a result, a joint research project involving QDMR, Queensland University of Technology (QUT) and the Corporative Research Centre for Integrated Engineering Asset Management (CRC CIEAM) was formed. The research project aims at investigating whether there is significant relationship between road crashes and skid resistance on Queensland’s road networks. If there is, the current skid resistance management practice of QDMR will be reviewed and appropriate skid resistance investigatory levels will be recommended. This paper presents analysis results in assessing the relationship between wet crashes and skid resistance on Queensland roads. Attributes considered in the analysis include surface types, annual average daily traffic (AADT), speed and seal age.

Integrated governance arrangements of airport-region urban infrastructure development : gaining insights from urban infrastructure development in the Brisbane airport region

Polarising the issue of governance is the increasingly acknowledged role of airports in regional economic development, both as significant sources of direct employment and as attractants of commerce through enhanced mobility (Vickerman, Spiekermann & Wegener 1999; Hakfoort, Poot & Rietveld 2001). Most airports were once considered spatially removed from their cities, but as cities have expanded their airports no longer sit distinct of the urban environment. This newfound spatial proximity means that decisions for land use and development on either city or airport land are likely to have impacts that affect one another in either or both the short- or long-term (Stevens, Baker and Freestone 2007). These impacts increase the demand for decision making to find ways of integrating strategies for future development to ensure that airport developments do not impede the sustainable growth of its city, and likewise that city developments do not impede the sustainable growth of its airport (Gillen 2006). However questions of how, under what conditions, and to what extent decision making integration might be suitable for “airport regions” are yet to be explored let alone answered.

Sustainable urban development : an integrated framework for urban planning and development

Sustainable development has long been promoted as the best answer to the world’s environmental problems. This term has generated mass appeal as it implies that both the development of the built environment and its associated resource consumption can be achieved without jeopardising the natural environment. In the urban context, sustainability issues have been reflected in the promotion of sustainable urban development, which emphasises the sensible exploitation of scarce natural resources for urbanisation in a manner that allows future generations to repeat the process. This chapter highlights attempts to promote sustainable urban development through an integration of three important considerations: planning, development and the ecosystem. It highlights the fact that spatial planning processes were traditionally driven by economic and social objectives, and rarely involved promoting the sustainability agenda to achieve a sustainable urban future. As a result, rapid urbanisation has created a variety of pressures on the ecosystem upon which we rely. It is believed that the integration of the urban planning and development processes within the limitations of the ecosystem, monitored by a sustainability assessment mechanism, would offer a better approach to maintaining sustainable resource use without compromising urban development.

Developing reflective practitioners online: The business of blogs in work integrated learning

Reflective practice is widely considered across discussions around educational psychology, professional identity, employability of graduates, and generic or graduate capabilities. Critical reflection is essential for providing a bridge between the university and the workplace, and for ultimately preparing work ready graduates (Patrick et al, 2008). Work integrated learning, particularly through internships and work placements for students, is viewed as a valuable approach for students developing skills in reflective practice. Reflective journals are one of the tools often used to encourage and develop student reflection. Shifting the reflective journal to an online interface as a reflective blog presents opportunities for more meaningful, frequent and richer interaction between the key players in a work integrated learning experience. This paper examines the adoption, implementation and refinement of the use of reflective blogs in a work integrated learning unit for business students majoring in advertising, marketing and public relations disciplines. The reflective blog is discussed as a learning and assessment tool, including the approaches taken to integrate and scaffold the blog as part of the work integrated learning experience. Graduate capabilities were used as cornerstones for students to frame students’ thinking, experiences and reflection. These capabilities emphasise the value of coherent theoretical and practical knowledge, coupled with critical, creative and analytical thinking, problem solving skills, self reliance and resilience. Underlying these graduate capabilities is a focus on assessment for learning matched with assessment of learning. Using specific triggers and prompts as part of the reflective process, and incorporating ongoing feedback from academic supervisors, students moved from descriptive levels of reflection, to more meaningful and critical reflection. Students’ blogs are analysed to identify key themes, challenges and achievements in the work integrated learning experience. Suggestions for further development and improvement, together with a model of best practice, are proposed.

Knowledge-based development for cities and societies : integrated multi-level approaches

Over the past twenty years, the conventional knowledge management approach has evolved into a strategic management approach that has found applications and opportunities outside of business, in society at large, through education, urban development, governance, and healthcare, amongst others. Knowledge-Based Development for Cities and Socieities: Integrated Multi-Level Approaches enlightens the concepts and challenges of knowledge management for both urban environments and entire regions, enhancing the expertise and knowledge of scholars, resdearchers, practitioners, managers and urban developers in the development of successful knowledge-based development policies, creation of knowledte cities and prosperous knowledge societies. This reference creates large knowledge base for scholars, managers and urban developers and increases the awareness of the role of knowledge cities and knowledge socieiteis in the knowledge era, as well as of the challenges and opportunities for future research.

An integrated approach to tourism planning in a developing nation : a case study from Beloi (Timor-Leste)

In this chapter we present a case study set in Beloi, a fishing village located on Ataúro Island, 30 km across the sea from Díli, capital of Timor-Leste (East-Timor). We explore the tension between tourism development, food security and marine conservation in a developing country context. In order to better understand the relationships between the social, ecological and economic issues that arise in tourism planning we use an approach and associated methodology based on storytelling, complexity theory and concept mapping. Through testing scenarios with this methodology we hope to evaluate which trade-offs are acceptable to local people in return for the hoped-for economic boost from increased tourist visitation and associated developments.

The ecology of Bactrocera tryoni (Froggatt) (Diptera: Tephritdae) : what do we know to assist pest management?

The distribution, systematics and ecology of Bactrocera tryoni, the Queensland fruit fly are reviewed. Bactrocera tryoni is a member of the B. tryoni complex of species, which currently includes four named species, viz. B. tryoni s.s., B. neohumeralis, B. melas and B. aquilonis. The species status of B. melas and B. aquilonis are unclear (they may be junior synonyms of B. tryoni) and their validity, or otherwise, needs to be confirmed as a matter of urgency. While Queensland fruit fly is regarded as a tropical species, it cannot be assumed that its distribution will spread further south under climate change scenarios. Increasing aridity and hot dry summers, as well as more complex, indirect interactions resulting from elevated CO2, make predicting the future distribution and abundance of B. tryoni difficult. The ecology of B. tryoni is reviewed with respect to current control approaches (with the exception of Sterile Insect Technique which is covered in a companion paper). We conclude that there are major gaps in the knowledge required to implement most non-insecticide based management approaches. Priority areas for future research include host plant interactions, protein and cue-lure foraging and use, spatial dynamics, development of new monitoring tools, investigating the use of natural enemies and better integration of fruit flies into general horticultural IPM systems.

The emerging management services of business transformation management

Business transformations are large-scale organizational change programs that, evidence suggests, are often unsuccessful. Our interest is in identifying the management capabilities required for the successful execution of these projects. We advance a service-oriented view of the enterprise, which suggests that different management services need to be identified and integrated in order to execute business transformation. In order to identify those management services that require integration, we conducted an exploratory empirical study of the demand for management services in US and Asia, and we show that two archetypes of management services exist in business transformation initiatives: transactional and transformational management services. We identify the relevant set of transactional and transformational services and discuss what the demand for these services implies for the execution of business transformations.