Dynamic stackelberg game with risk-averse players: optimal risk-sharing under asymmetric information

The objective of this paper is to clarify the interactive nature of the leader-follower relationship when both players are endogenously risk-averse. The analysis is placed in the context of a dynamic closed-loop Stackelberg game with private information. The case of a risk-neutral leader, very often discussed in the literature, is only a borderline possibility in the present study. Each player in the game is characterized by a risk-averse type which is unknown to his opponent. The goal of the leader is to implement an optimal incentive compatible risk-sharing contract. The proposed approach provides a qualitative analysis of adaptive risk behavior profiles for asymmetrically informed players in the context of dynamic strategic interactions modelled as incentive Stackelberg games.

Egalitarian equivalence under asymmetric information

We propose a definition of egalitarian equivalence that extends Pazner and Schmeidler's (1978) concept to environments with incomplete information. If every feasible allocation rule can be implemented by an incentive compatible mechanism (as, for instance, in the case of non-exclusive information), then interim egalitarian equivalence and interim incentive efficiency remain compatible, as they were under complete information. When incentive constraints are more restrictive, on the other hand, the two criteria may become incompatible.

Withdrawal, "serosorting" and "strategic positioning": use of risk reduction strategies with casual sex partners in men who have sex with men (MSM) in Switzerland, 2007

Introduction: 1) Withdrawal before ejaculation, "serosorting" (to choose a partner of same serostatus) and "strategic positioning" (only insertive vs. only receptive role in anal sex according to serostatus) are known to be used by MSM as alternatives to condom use. 2) Despite their questionable levels of effectiveness they are collectively labelled as "risk reduction strategies" (RRS). Objectives: The aim of this study is to estimate the prevalence and factors related to RRS in men who report unprotected anal intercourse (UAI) with occasional partners in the last 12 months. Methods: 1) In 2007, a module on RRS was included in a repeated national survey conducted among readers of gay newspapers, members of gay organizations and visitors of gay websites (N=2953). 2) Using an anonymous self-completed questionnaire, participants were asked whether, with the aim of avoiding HIV infection, RRS were used with occasional partners. Analysis: 1) Prevalences were calculated in participants who reported UAI with occasional partners in the last 12 months (n=416). 2) A logistic regression was performed, using "at least one RRS" as dependent variable. Number of partners in the last 12 months, HIV-status and usual socio-demographic characteristics were used as independent factors. Result : 1) 70% (292/416) of the participants reporting UAI used at least one RRS when they had unprotected sex with casual partners in the last 12 months (Table 1). 2) Withrawal before ejaculation was the most frequently reported strategy, followed by serosorting and strategic positioning (Table 1). 3) Participants who reported at least one RRS were more likely to be over 30 years and to belong to a gay organisation. HIV-positive and non-tested participants were less likely to report RRS than HIV-negative participants (Table 2). Conclusions: 1) The majority of MSM who reported UAI in the last 12 months tried to reduce risk of HIV transmission by using specific strategies (withdrawal, serosorting, strategic positioning). It is not known, however, to what extent the use of these strategies was systematic. 2) It is necessary to provide MSM with balanced information on these strategies and their respective level of effectiveness. 3) It is important to monitor the use of RRS in HIV behavioural surveillance surveys in MSM.

Health education, public information, and communication in schistosomiasis control in Brazil: a brief retrospective and perspectives

In recent years, the strategy for the control of schistosomiasis has placed increased emphasis on the role of health education, public information, and communication. This should, not only bring about specific changes in behavior aiming at disease prevention, but also stimulate participation of the community in health programs. Beyond this, it is desirable that both community members and researchers should seek better life conditions through a transformative social action. The present paper addresses these concerns; first, by critically reviewing some health education programs that were developed in Brazil, and, secondly, by analyzing and suggesting ways to improve this area.

Control of landslide retrogression by discontinuities: Evidence by the integration of airbone- and ground-based geophysical information

The objective of this work is to present a multitechnique approach to define the geometry, the kinematics, and the failure mechanism of a retrogressive large landslide (upper part of the La Valette landslide, South French Alps) by the combination of airborne and terrestrial laser scanning data and ground-based seismic tomography data. The advantage of combining different methods is to constrain the geometrical and failure mechanism models by integrating different sources of information. Because of an important point density at the ground surface (4. 1 points m?2), a small laser footprint (0.09 m) and an accurate three-dimensional positioning (0.07 m), airborne laser scanning data are adapted as a source of information to analyze morphological structures at the surface. Seismic tomography surveys (P-wave and S-wave velocities) may highlight the presence of low-seismic-velocity zones that characterize the presence of dense fracture networks at the subsurface. The surface displacements measured from the terrestrial laser scanning data over a period of 2 years (May 2008?May 2010) allow one to quantify the landslide activity at the direct vicinity of the identified discontinuities. An important subsidence of the crown area with an average subsidence rate of 3.07 m?year?1 is determined. The displacement directions indicate that the retrogression is controlled structurally by the preexisting discontinuities. A conceptual structural model is proposed to explain the failure mechanism and the retrogressive evolution of the main scarp. Uphill, the crown area is affected by planar sliding included in a deeper wedge failure system constrained by two preexisting fractures. Downhill, the landslide body acts as a buttress for the upper part. Consequently, the progression of the landslide body downhill allows the development of dip-slope failures, and coherent blocks start sliding along planar discontinuities. The volume of the failed mass in the crown area is estimated at 500,000 m3 with the sloping local base level method.

Access to information in Switzerland : From secrecy to transparency

Access to information legislations are now present in over 50 countries world-wide. Lagging behind some of its own Cantons, the Swiss Federal government was until recently one of the few hold outs in Europe. But, in December 2004, the Confederation voted the 'Loi sur la Transparence de l'administration' or Law on Transparency (LTrans) a Law that came into effect in July 2006. This paper presents an overview of the new Law and underlines the main institutional challenges to its introduction in Switzerland.

Analyse systématique et permanente de la délinquance sérielle : place des statistiques criminelles ; apport des approches situationnelles pour un système de classification ; perspectives en matière de coopération

Résumé de la thèse L'évolution des systèmes policiers donne une place prépondérante à l'information et au renseignement. Cette transformation implique de développer et de maintenir un ensemble de processus permanent d'analyse de la criminalité, en particulier pour traiter des événements répétitifs ou graves. Dans une organisation aux ressources limitées, le temps consacré au recueil des données, à leur codification et intégration, diminue le temps disponible pour l'analyse et la diffusion de renseignements. Les phases de collecte et d'intégration restent néanmoins indispensables, l'analyse n'étant pas possible sur des données volumineuses n'ayant aucune structure. Jusqu'à présent, ces problématiques d'analyse ont été abordées par des approches essentiellement spécialisées (calculs de hot-sports, data mining, ...) ou dirigées par un seul axe (par exemple, les sciences comportementales). Cette recherche s'inscrit sous un angle différent, une démarche interdisciplinaire a été adoptée. L'augmentation continuelle de la quantité de données à analyser tend à diminuer la capacité d'analyse des informations à disposition. Un bon découpage (classification) des problèmes rencontrés permet de délimiter les analyses sur des données pertinentes. Ces classes sont essentielles pour structurer la mémoire du système d'analyse. Les statistiques policières de la criminalité devraient déjà avoir répondu à ces questions de découpage de la délinquance (classification juridique). Cette décomposition a été comparée aux besoins d'un système de suivi permanent dans la criminalité. La recherche confirme que nos efforts pour comprendre la nature et la répartition du crime se butent à un obstacle, à savoir que la définition juridique des formes de criminalité n'est pas adaptée à son analyse, à son étude. Depuis près de vingt ans, les corps de police de Suisse romande utilisent et développent un système de classification basé sur l'expérience policière (découpage par phénomène). Cette recherche propose d'interpréter ce système dans le cadre des approches situationnelles (approche théorique) et de le confronter aux données « statistiques » disponibles pour vérifier sa capacité à distinguer les formes de criminalité. La recherche se limite aux cambriolages d'habitations, un délit répétitif fréquent. La théorie des opportunités soutien qu'il faut réunir dans le temps et dans l'espace au minimum les trois facteurs suivants : un délinquant potentiel, une cible intéressante et l'absence de gardien capable de prévenir ou d'empêcher le passage à l'acte. Ainsi, le délit n'est possible que dans certaines circonstances, c'est-à-dire dans un contexte bien précis. Identifier ces contextes permet catégoriser la criminalité. Chaque cas est unique, mais un groupe de cas montre des similitudes. Par exemple, certaines conditions avec certains environnements attirent certains types de cambrioleurs. Deux hypothèses ont été testées. La première est que les cambriolages d'habitations ne se répartissent pas uniformément dans les classes formées par des « paramètres situationnels » ; la deuxième que des niches apparaissent en recoupant les différents paramètres et qu'elles correspondent à la classification mise en place par la coordination judiciaire vaudoise et le CICOP. La base de données vaudoise des cambriolages enregistrés entre 1997 et 2006 par la police a été utilisée (25'369 cas). Des situations spécifiques ont été mises en évidence, elles correspondent aux classes définies empiriquement. Dans une deuxième phase, le lien entre une situation spécifique et d'activité d'un auteur au sein d'une même situation a été vérifié. Les observations réalisées dans cette recherche indiquent que les auteurs de cambriolages sont actifs dans des niches. Plusieurs auteurs sériels ont commis des délits qui ne sont pas dans leur niche, mais le nombre de ces infractions est faible par rapport au nombre de cas commis dans la niche. Un système de classification qui correspond à des réalités criminelles permet de décomposer les événements et de mettre en place un système d'alerte et de suivi « intelligent ». Une nouvelle série dans un phénomène sera détectée par une augmentation du nombre de cas de ce phénomène, en particulier dans une région et à une période donnée. Cette nouvelle série, mélangée parmi l'ensemble des délits, ne serait pas forcément détectable, en particulier si elle se déplace. Finalement, la coopération entre les structures de renseignement criminel opérationnel en Suisse romande a été améliorée par le développement d'une plateforme d'information commune et le système de classification y a été entièrement intégré.

Le management de juridiction : analyse comparative de l'organisation et du fonctionnement managérial de cinq juridictions du pouvoir judiciaire à Genève

Cette étude comparative analyse le management au sein de cinq juridictions du pouvoir judiciaire genevois. Elle s'intéresse en particulier au président et au greffier de juridiction, qui, dans ces structures, sont investis de cette mission, et se fonde sur une conception actualisée du cycle traditionnel de management. Comment fonctionnent et s'organisent les juridictions du point de vue managérial ? Comment les managers se répartissent-ils leur rôle et leurs responsabilités ? Quelles sont les pratiques managériales utilisées, et comment sont-elles perçues par les collaborateurs et les managers ? Cet ouvrage a pour objectif de répondre à ces questions et de formuler une série de recommandations visant l'optimisation du management juridictionnel au sein du pouvoir judiciaire à Genève.

A forensic perspective of the AFL investigation into peptides: an antidoping investigation case study.

BACKGROUND: The World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) is introducing enhancements to doping investigations in its 2015 Code, which include improved sharing of information between antidoping organisations (including sporting bodies) and enhanced accountability of athlete support staff. These additions will improve the control of links between sports doping and organised crime. In February 2013 the Australian Crime Commission released a report that linked several professional sporting codes, professional athletes with links to organised crime, performance enhancing drugs and illicit substances. Following this report the Australian Football League (AFL) partnered the Australian national antidoping organisation to investigate peptide use in Australian football. METHODS: This review compared the model proposed by Marclay, a hypothetical model for anti-doping investigations that proposed a forensic intelligence and analysis approach, to use the forensic capabilities of the AFL investigation to test the model's relevance to an actual case. RESULTS: The investigation uncovered the use of peptides used to enhance athlete performance. The AFL investigation found a high risk of doping where athlete support staff existed in teams with weak corporate governance controls. A further finding included the need for the investigation to provide a timely response in professional team sports that were sensitive to the competition timing. In the case of the AFL the team was sanctioned prior to the finals as an interim outcome for allowing the risk of use of performance-enhancing substances. Doping violation charges are still being considered. DISCUSSION: Antidoping strategies should include the investigation of corporate officers in team doping circumstances, the mandatory recording of all athlete substance use during competition and training phases, the wider sharing of forensic intelligence with non-sporting bodies particularly law enforcement and collaboration between antidoping and sporting organisations in doping investigations. CONCLUSIONS: The AFL investigation illustrated the importance of the 2015 WADA Code changes and highlighted the need for a systematic use of broad forensic intelligence activities in the investigation of doping violations.

TcruziDB, an Integrated Database, and the WWW Information Server for the Trypanosoma cruzi Genome Project

Data analysis, presentation and distribution is of utmost importance to a genome project. A public domain software, ACeDB, has been chosen as the common basis for parasite genome databases, and a first release of TcruziDB, the Trypanosoma cruzi genome database, is available by ftp from ftp://iris.dbbm.fiocruz.br/pub/genomedb/TcruziDB as well as versions of the software for different operating systems (ftp://iris.dbbm.fiocruz.br/pub/unixsoft/). Moreover, data originated from the project are available from the WWW server at http://www.dbbm.fiocruz.br. It contains biological and parasitological data on CL Brener, its karyotype, all available T. cruzi sequences from Genbank, data on the EST-sequencing project and on available libraries, a T. cruzi codon table and a listing of activities and participating groups in the genome project, as well as meeting reports. T. cruzi discussion lists (tcruzi-l@iris.dbbm.fiocruz.br and tcgenics@iris.dbbm.fiocruz.br) are being maintained for communication and to promote collaboration in the genome project