On testing the Phillips curves, the IS Curves, and the interaction between fiscal and monetary policies

Esta tese é composta por três ensaios sobre testes empíricos de curvas de Phillips, curvas IS e a interação entre as políticas fiscal e monetária. O primeiro ensaio ("Curvas de Phillips: um Teste Abrangente") testa curvas de Phillips usando uma especificação autoregressiva de defasagem distribuída (ADL) que abrange a curva de Phillips Aceleracionista (APC), a curva de Phillips Novo Keynesiana (NKPC), a curva de Phillips Híbrida (HPC) e a curva de Phillips de Informação Rígida (SIPC). Utilizamos dados dos Estados Unidos (1985Q1--2007Q4) e do Brasil (1996Q1--2012Q2), usando o hiato do produto e alternativamente o custo marginal real como medida de pressão inflacionária. A evidência empírica rejeita as restrições decorrentes da NKPC, da HPC e da SIPC, mas não rejeita aquelas da APC. O segundo ensaio ("Curvas IS: um Teste Abrangente") testa curvas IS usando uma especificação ADL que abrange a curva IS Keynesiana tradicional (KISC), a curva IS Novo Keynesiana (NKISC) e a curva IS Híbrida (HISC). Utilizamos dados dos Estados Unidos (1985Q1--2007Q4) e do Brasil (1996Q1--2012Q2). A evidência empírica rejeita as restrições decorrentes da NKISC e da HISC, mas não rejeita aquelas da KISC. O terceiro ensaio ("Os Efeitos da Política Fiscal e suas Interações com a Política Monetária") analisa os efeitos de choques na política fiscal sobre a dinâmica da economia e a interação entre as políticas fiscal e monetária usando modelos SVARs. Testamos a Teoria Fiscal do Nível de Preços para o Brasil analisando a resposta do passivo do setor público a choques no superávit primário. Para a identificação híbrida, encontramos que não é possível distinguir empiricamente entre os regimes Ricardiano (Dominância Monetária) e não-Ricardiano (Dominância Fiscal). Entretanto, utilizando a identificação de restrições de sinais, existe evidência que o governo seguiu um regime Ricardiano (Dominância Monetária) de janeiro de 2000 a junho de 2008.

Applying negotiation skills in the design of public policies: analysis of the city of São Paulo’s invoice program

The author argues that by applying problem-solving negotiation skills in the design of public policies, public administrators benefit from more effective and wide-ranging outcomes in the realization of their goals. In order to demonstrate this idea, the author analyzes how negotiation skills – such as identifying key actors and their interests, recognizing hardbargaining tactics and changing the players, knowing your best alternative, creating value and building trust – permeated and contributed to the success of the City of São Paulo’s Invoice Program (“Programa Nota Fiscal Paulistana”), a public policy aimed at combating tax evasion of service tax in the City of São Paulo.

Employing the Components of the Human Development Index to Drive Resources to Educational Policies

A new form of composition of the indicators employed to generate the United Nations Human Development Index (HDI) is presented here. This form of composition is based on the assumption that random errors affect the measurement of each indicator. This assumption allows for replacing the vector of evaluations according to each indicator by vectors of probabilities of being the best or the worst according to such attribute. The probabilistic composition of such probabilities of preference according to each indicator into probabilities of being the best or the worst according to all of them generates indices that may unveil, on one hand, performances to be followed and, on the other hand, extreme conditions that an additive composition would hide. Differences between the results of application of the diverse forms of composition are examined in the case of the HDI and in the case of the districts version of the HDI employed to compare Brazilian municipalities. It is verified that the smallest correlation between the education.

How are immigration policies affecting Brazil's economy?

How are current immigration policies for foreign workers affecting Brazil's economy, and what changes should be made? What other issues in the labor market are affecting businesses in the country?

Fostering innovation and entrepreneurship in Brazil through private equity and venture capital public policies

It is well documented the positive impact of the Private Equity and Venture Capital (PE/VC) industry on the creation and development of highly successful innovative companies in a few countries, mainly in the United States. PE/VC firms provide not only capital to startups and small and medium enterprises (SMEs) that usually have financing gap, especially in emerging markets, but also strategic resources that enable these enterprises to commercialize innovation. As consequence, government incentive and nurture of local PE/VC industries would be expected in emerging economies due to innovation‟s importance to economic growth. This paper aims to identify if the Brazilian government has supported local PE/VC industry throughout the years in order to foster favorable conditions to creating and developing successful innovative businesses. It also analyzes Brazil‟s main public policies towards PE/VC and if they encompass all the three stages of its cycle – fundraising, investing and exiting. I conducted an empirical research which collected primary data from a sample of 127 PE/VC firms (90% of the population) operating in Brazil as of June, 2008. All firms answered a webbased questionnaire that collected quantitative data regarding their investment vehicles, portfolio companies, investments and exits. I compared the data obtained from the survey with the main local governmental PE/VC support programs. First, I confirmed the hypothesis that the Brazilian government has been using the PE/VC industry as a public policy towards entrepreneurship and innovation. Second, I identified that although PE/VC public policies in Brazil are mostly concentrated in fundraising phase, they have been able to positively impact the whole cycle. Third, it became clear that the Brazilian government became more concerned about Seed and Venture Capital (VC) Early stages due to their importance to the entire PE/VC value chain. As consequence, I conclude that those public policies have been very important to build a dynamic and strong local PE/VC industry, whose committed capital grew 50% per year between 2005 and 2008 to achieve US$27 billion, which invested US$ 11 billion, which employs 1,400 professionals (75% with postgraduate degrees) and maintains 482 portfolio companies, mostly SMEs. In addition, PE/VCbacked companies represented one third of the Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) that occurred in Brazil between 2004 and 2008 (approximately US$15 billion).

Demand expectations and the timing of stimulus policies

This paper proposes a simple macroeconomic model with staggered investment decisions. The model captures the dynamic coordination problem arising from demand externalities and fixed costs of investment. In times of low economic activity, a firm faces low demand and hence has less incentives for investing, which reinforces firms’ expectations of low demand. In the unique equilibrium of the model, demand expectations are pinned down by fundamentals and history. Owing to the beliefs that arise in equilibrium, there is no special reason for stimulus at times of low economic activity.

How to manage macroeconomic policies to foster growth and employment and prevent financial and external crises

My presentation focuses on the implementation of a macroeconomic policy regime which, I believe, is capable of simultaneously attaining several targets, including the promotion of growth and employment and the prevention of external and financial crises.

Capital misallocation and mitigating policies

The purpose of this work is to study the role for government in mitigating capital misallocation. We develop an entrepreneurship model in which heterogeneous producers face collateral constraints on production, but can hedge idiosyncratic shocks. Hedging works as a tool for reallocating resources to states in which they are more productively deployed, and can alleviate the effect of the financial frictions and be a counteracting force to capital misallocation. Government incentives to hedging improve workers’ welfare in steady state through an increase in TFP and wages. The intervention leads to a reduction in the rate of return of entrepreneurs and an increase in wealth dispersion. These two effects cause entrepreneurial welfare to decrease.

Human resource policies in public education: empirical evidences for Brazil

Esta tese traz três exercícios empíricos sobre questões de recursos humanos em escolas públicas brasileiras, aproveitando-se de uma ampla política implantada na rede estadual de São Paulo. Esta política aumenta os salários para os professores que trabalham em escolas urbanas pobres e sua regra de alocação, baseada em um corte arbitrário em um índice socioeconômico, permite a identificação de impactos causais. Em resumo, os três artigos apontam que políticas de subsídios são capazes de, de fato, manter professores nas escolas mais pobres e este efeito, por sua vez, melhora o desempenho acadêmico dos alunos. Além disso, concluímos também que esta política também reduz o absenteísmo dos professores. No entanto, como consequência do desenho dessa política, não há evidências de que o subsídio melhora o perfil dos professores alocados nessas escolas. O primeiro artigo avalia os impactos dessa política sobre a rotatividade dos professores. Concluímos que a compensação salarial reduziu a taxa de rotatividade em 7,2 pontos percentuais, o que significa uma queda de 15% sobre a média pré-tratamento. Em um modelo em forma reduzida, encontramos também evidências de que esta política pode impactar positivamente o desempenho dos alunos. O segundo artigo analisa os impactos sobre a aprendizagem dos alunos, com foco em três possíveis mecanismos: i) a rotatividade; ii) a qualidade dos professores; iii) o aumento do salário. As estimativas mostram que o único canal através do qual esta política compensatória afeta o desempenho dos alunos é a redução da rotatividade dos professores. Ao reduzir taxa de volume de negócios em um desvio-padrão, a política reduziu a proporção de alunos de baixo desempenho em cerca de meio desvio-padrão. O terceiro artigo avalia como a diferenciação salarial criada por esta política afeta absenteísmo dos professores. Os resultados mostram que, após controlar efeitos fixos de professores e escolas, pagar um salário mais elevado (em média 26% a mais) provoca uma queda de 8-22% nas faltas dos professores. Ausências que não levam a desconto de salário, como por licenças médicas, não respondem à diferenciação salarial e o impacto é maior para os professores que recebem maior incentivo.

Leadership of portuguese community schools in the East Coast of the United States and the public policies of education: a multiple case studies

The Portuguese community schools of the United States located in the areas of larger Portuguese population concentration are social organizations that come materializing throughout decades the designs of the educative policies of the Portuguese government in relation to the expansion and preservation of the language, the culture and the history of Portugal. These designs of the educative policies are enrolled in the Constitution of the Republic (1976), in the Basic Law of Educative System (1986) and, over all, in the successive legislative norms (Decree-laws and ordinances) of the successive governments. Portuguese community schools in the United States are structuralized in analogous way to schools of the Portuguese geographic space. For this qualitative study (multiple case), four directors of Portuguese schools of the East Coast of the United States were interviewed; two schools are in the state of Rhode Island and the other two are in the state of Massachusetts. Also, it was administered the questionnaire on practices of leadership “Leadership Practices Inventory” (LPI) of Kouzes and Posner (2002) to collect additional data about practices of leadership on the directors of the schools. The LPI evaluates practices of leadership classifying them in five domains: (a) Model the way; (b) Inspire a shared vision; (c) Challenge the process; (d) Enable others to act; and, (e) Encourage the heart. Results of this qualitative research indicate that the Portuguese Government has not had an educative policy stimulant, coherent and consistent of support, incentive, maintenance and diffusion of the Portuguese language and culture and the directors of the studied schools they have a proactive and serving leadership style in conducting the management of Portuguese community schools. The five practices of leadership are highly practiced by the directors of the studied schools above all the practices “Enable others to act” and “Encourage the heart”.

Agrofuel policies in Brazil: paradigmatic and territorial disputes

The expansion of agrofuel crops challenges us to rethink policies, territories, human agency, and the paradigms used to explain them. In Brazil, policies supporting the expansion of agrofuel crops and the intensification of agrofuel production are reorganising rural land use and undermining some forms of participation in the capitalist and family modes of production. To reflect on this new reality, we study peasant movement reactions, proposals, and territorial disputes with agribusiness. Using the Pontal do Paranapanema region of São Paulo state as a case in point, the paper analyses territorial disputes between expanding sugarcane plantations and agrarian reform settlements as well as biodiesel production projects developed by the Landless Workers Movement (MST) and the Western São Paulo Federation of Settlement and Family Farmer Associations (FAAFOP). It also analyses the agrofuel policies of other peasant organisations, including Via Campesina. The production of agrofuels has changed the processes of land acquisition and use by both agribusiness and the peasantry, provoking new insights into the nature of territorial conflicts and thereby stimulating the need to revise perspectives on the agrarian question in Brazil.

Anti-poverty policies in Brazil: Reviewing the past ten years

This article reviews the main anti-poverty policies implemented in Brazil from the early 1990s to the early 2000s. These include focused and universal policies - such as education and health care - as well as the rural development, a 'middle ground' policy. Though the inter-municipal consortium, a new institutional arrangement gathering municipalities together, has emerged as a promising policy implementation tool, anti-poverty policies have faced implementation difficulties. Lack of coordination between different programs, even within the same policy area, has impaired their effectiveness. As a consequence, compensatory programs, based on monetary transfers to poor families, which face fewer implementation problems, have become the dominant type of anti-poverty policies in Brazil. Despite these shortcomings, a small Brazilian state, Santa Catarina, was able to reduce by 46 percent the number of individuals living in poverty in just ten years. This is a sign that fighting poverty can, after all, be a feasible endeavor. © 2004 IIAS, SAGE Publications (London, Thousand Oaks, CA and New Delhi).