Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Great Recession: Estimating the Macroeconomic Effects of a Spread Compression at the Zero Lower Bound

We explore the macroeconomic effects of a compression in the long-term bond yield spread within the context of the Great Recession of 2007–09 via a time-varying parameter structural VAR model. We identify a “pure” spread shock defined as a shock that leaves the policy rate unchanged, which allows us to characterize the macroeconomic consequences of a decline in the yield spread induced by central banks’ asset purchases within an environment in which the policy rate is constrained by the effective zero lower bound. Two key findings stand out. First, compressions in the long-term yield spread exert a powerful effect on both output growth and inflation. Second, conditional on available estimates of the impact of the Federal Reserve’s and the Bank of England’s asset purchase programs on long-term yield spreads, our counterfactual simulations suggest that U.S. and U.K. unconventional monetary policy actions have averted significant risks both of deflation and of output collapses comparable to those that took place during the Great Depression.

ANOVA kernels and RKHS of zero mean functions for model-based sensitivity analysis

Given a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (H,〈.,.〉)(H,〈.,.〉) of real-valued functions and a suitable measure μμ over the source space D⊂RD⊂R, we decompose HH as the sum of a subspace of centered functions for μμ and its orthogonal in HH. This decomposition leads to a special case of ANOVA kernels, for which the functional ANOVA representation of the best predictor can be elegantly derived, either in an interpolation or regularization framework. The proposed kernels appear to be particularly convenient for analyzing the effect of each (group of) variable(s) and computing sensitivity indices without recursivity.

NLO thermal dilepton rate at non-zero momentum

The vector channel spectral function and the dilepton production rate from a QCD plasma at a temperature above a few hundred MeV are evaluated up to next-to-leading order (NLO) including their dependence on a non-zero momentum with respect to the heat bath. The invariant mass of the virtual photon is taken to be in the range K2 ~ (πT)2 ~ (1GeV)2, generalizing previous NLO results valid for K2 ≫ (πT)2. In the opposite regime 0 < K2 ≪ (πT)2 the loop expansion breaks down, but agrees nevertheless in order of magnitude with a previous result obtained through resummations. Ways to test the vector spectral function through comparisons with imaginary-time correlators measured on the lattice are discussed.

Post-immigration education of adult immigrants in Switzerland

In 2000, 20 per cent of the Swiss resident population was constituted by foreigners (Fibbi and Wanner 2009). As in other European countries, the migrant population in Switzerland can broadly be differentiated into three groups: 1) Migrant groups from less-developed regions with substantially lower educational attainments and an increased risk for unemployment than in the reference population, 2) Migrant groups that are rather more successful, although still somewhat behind the majority population, 3) Migrant groups who even outperform the majority population in terms of educational and employment success (Heath et al. 2008). Given these inequalities – in particular in the first migrant group – participation in further education in the country of destination might contribute to better integrate migrants in the Swiss society in general and the labour market in particular. On the basis of the pooled SAKE data set (1991-2000), patterns of participation in further education of adult migrants are analysed. As the results show, many migrant groups differ from the Swiss reference population regarding participation in further education. While inequalities are often explained by educational attainments and occupational status, in some cases they hold even if controlled for the determinants explaining participation in further education in general. Regarding migrant-specific determinants, type of residence permit proved to be an important indicator explaining the disadvantages in access to further education encountered by migrants originating from Former Yugoslavia.

Emigration und Immigration : ein Wort zur jüdischen Auswanderer-Not

von Eugen Doctor

The Swiss Public Initiative against Mass Immigration (‘Masseneinwanderungsinitiative’): Caught between Constitutional Sovereignty and Pacta Sunt Servanda

This article seeks to bring some clarity to the publicly held debate on the Swiss federal popular initiative to limit immigration as it was adopted on 9 February 2014 by the Swiss people. It considers the crux of the matter, which is the implementation of the new Swiss constitutional article in the context of public international law. The initiative is stuck in between Swiss constitutional sovereignty and Swiss treaty obligations flowing from the agreement on free movement of persons between the European Union and the Swiss Confederation. Specific attention is paid to the democratic element anchored in the Swiss Constitution which, in contrast to other systems where the judicial element prevails, is of high importance for whole the process of a bilateral contractual relationship between the European Union and the Swiss Confederation.