881 resultados para Heuristic-driven biases
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Choosing properly and efficiently a supplier has been challenging practitioners and academics since 1960’s. Since then, countless studies had been performed and relevant changes in the business scenario were considered such as global sourcing, quality-orientation, just-in-time practices. It is almost consensus that quality should be the selection driver, however, some polemical findings questioned this general agreement. Therefore, one of the objectives of the study was to identify the supplier selection criteria and bring this discussion back again. Moreover, Dickson (1966) suggested existing business relationship as selection criterion, then it was reviewed the importance of business relationship for the company and noted a set of potential negative effects that could rise from it. By considering these side effects of relationship, this research aimed to investigate how the relationship could influence the supplier selection and how its harmful effects could affect the selection process. The impact of this phenomenon was investigated cross-nationally. The research strategy adopted was a controlled experiment via vignette combined with discrete choice analysis. The data collections were performed in China and Brazil. By examining the results, it could be drawn five major findings. First, when purchasers were asked to declare their supplier selection priorities, quality was stated as the most important independently of country and relationship. This result was consistent with diverse studies since 60’s. However, when purchasers were exposed to a multi-criteria trade-off situation, their actual selection priorities deviate from what they had declared. In the actual decision-making without influence of buyer-supplier relationship, Brazilian purchasers focused on price and Chinese buyers prioritized delivery then price. This observation reinforced some controversial prior studies of Verma & Pullman (1998) and Hirakubo & Kublin (1998). Second, through the introduction of the buyer-supplier relationship (operationalized via relational capital) in the supplier selection process, this research extended the existing studies and found that Brazilian buyers still focused on price. The relationship became just another criterion for supplier selection such as quality and delivery. However, from the Chinese sample, the results suggested that quality was totally discarded and the decision was majorly made through price and relationship. The third finding suggested that relational capital could legitimate the quality and sustainability of the supplier and replaces these selection criteria and made the decisional task less complex. Additionally, with the relational capital, the decision-makings were associated to few biases such as availability cognition, commitment, confirmatory and perceived biases. By analyzing the purchasers’ behavior, relational capital inducted buyers of both countries to relax in their purchasing requirements (quality, delivery and sustainability) leading to potential negative effects. In the Brazilian sample, the phenomenon of willing to pay a higher price for a lower quality offer demonstrated to be a potential counterproductive and suboptimal decision. Finally, the last finding was associated to the cultural effect on the buyers’ decisions. From the outcome, it is possible to observe that if a purchaser’s cultural background is more relation-oriented, the more he will tend to use relational capital as a decision heuristic, thus, the purchaser will be more susceptible to the potential relationship’s side effects
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Trabalho apresentado no International Conference on Scientific Computation And Differential Equations 2015
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Fundação Getulio Vargas. Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia
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The Behavioral Finance develop as it is perceived anomalies in these markets efficient. This fields of study can be grouped into three major groups: heuristic bias, tying the shape and inefficient markets. The present study focuses on issues concerning the heuristics of representativeness and anchoring. This study aimed to identify the then under-reaction and over-reaction, as well as the existence of symmetry in the active first and second line of the Brazilian stock market. For this, it will be use the Fuzzy Logic and the indicators that classify groups studied from the Discriminant Analysis. The highest present, indicator in the period studied, was the Liabilities / Equity, demonstrating the importance of the moment to discriminate the assets to be considered "winners" and "losers." Note that in the MLCX biases over-reaction is concentrated in the period of financial crisis, and in the remaining periods of statistically significant biases, are obtained by sub-reactions. The latter would be in times of moderate levels of uncertainty. In the Small Caps the behavioral responses in 2005 and 2007 occur in reverse to those observed in the Mid-Large Cap. Now in times of crisis would have a marked conservatism while near the end of trading on the Bovespa speaker, accompanied by an increase of negotiations, there is an overreaction by investors. The other heuristics in SMLL occurred at the end of the period studied, this being a under-reaction and the other a over-reaction and the second occurring in a period of financial-economic more positive than the first. As regards the under / over-reactivity in both types, there is detected a predominance of either, which probably be different in the context in MLCX without crisis. For the period in which such phenomena occur in a statistically significant to note that, in most cases, such phenomena occur during the periods for MLCX while in SMLL not only biases are less present as there is no concentration of these at any time . Given the above, it is believed that while detecting the presence of bias behavior at certain times, these do not tend to appear to a specific type or heuristics and while there were some indications of a seasonal pattern in Mid- Large Caps, the same behavior does not seem to be repeated in Small Caps. The tests would then suggest that momentary failures in the Efficient Market Hypothesis when tested in semistrong form as stated by Behavioral Finance. This result confirms the theory by stating that not only rationality, but also human irrationality, is limited because it would act rationally in many circumstances
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This paper describes the development and solution of binary integer formulations for production scheduling problems in market-driven foundries. This industrial sector is comprised of small and mid-sized companies with little or no automation, working with diversified production, involving several different metal alloy specifications in small tailor-made product lots. The characteristics and constraints involved in a typical production environment at these industries challenge the formulation of mathematical programming models that can be computationally solved when considering real applications. However, despite the interest on the part of these industries in counting on effective methods for production scheduling, there are few studies available on the subject. The computational tests prove the robustness and feasibility of proposed models in situations analogous to those found in production scheduling at the analyzed industrial sector. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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A constructive heuristic algorithm (CHA) to solve distribution system planning (DSP) problem is presented. The DSP is a very complex mixed binary nonlinear programming problem. A CHA is aimed at obtaining an excellent quality solution for the DSP problem. However, a local improvement phase and a branching technique were implemented in the CHA to improve its solution. In each step of the CHA, a sensitivity index is used to add a circuit or a substation to the distribution system. This sensitivity index is obtained by solving the DSP problem considering the numbers of circuits and substations to be added as continuous variables (relaxed problem). The relaxed problem is a large and complex nonlinear programming and was solved through an efficient nonlinear optimization solver. Results of two tests systems and one real distribution system are presented in this paper in order to show the ability of the proposed algorithm.
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An efficient heuristic algorithm is presented in this work in order to solve the optimal capacitor placement problem in radial distribution systems. The proposal uses the solution from the mathematical model after relaxing the integrality of the discrete variables as a strategy to identify the most attractive bus to add capacitors to each step of the heuristic algorithm. The relaxed mathematical model is a nonlinear programming problem and is solved using a specialized interior point method, The algorithm still incorporates an additional strategy of local search that enables the finding of a group of quality solutions after small alterations in the optimization strategy. Proposed solution methodology has been implemented and tested in known electric systems getting a satisfactory outcome compared with metaheuristic methods.The tests carried out in electric systems known in specialized literature reveal the satisfactory outcome of the proposed algorithm compared with metaheuristic methods. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Researches in Requirements Engineering have been growing in the latest few years. Researchers are concerned with a set of open issues such as: communication between several user profiles involved in software engineering; scope definition; volatility and traceability issues. To cope with these issues a set of works are concentrated in (i) defining processes to collect client s specifications in order to solve scope issues; (ii) defining models to represent requirements to address communication and traceability issues; and (iii) working on mechanisms and processes to be applied to requirements modeling in order to facilitate requirements evolution and maintenance, addressing volatility and traceability issues. We propose an iterative Model-Driven process to solve these issues, based on a double layered CIM to communicate requirements related knowledge to a wider amount of stakeholders. We also present a tool to help requirements engineer through the RE process. Finally we present a case study to illustrate the process and tool s benefits and usage
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We present a generic spatially explicit modeling framework to estimate carbon emissions from deforestation (INPE-EM). The framework incorporates the temporal dynamics related to the deforestation process and accounts for the biophysical and socioeconomic heterogeneity of the region under study. We build an emission model for the Brazilian Amazon combining annual maps of new clearings, four maps of biomass, and a set of alternative parameters based on the recent literature. The most important results are as follows: (a) Using different biomass maps leads to large differences in estimates of emission; for the entire region of the Brazilian Amazon in the last decade, emission estimates of primary forest deforestation range from 0.21 to 0.26 similar to Pg similar to C similar to yr-1. (b) Secondary vegetation growth presents a small impact on emission balance because of the short duration of secondary vegetation. In average, the balance is only 5% smaller than the primary forest deforestation emissions. (c) Deforestation rates decreased significantly in the Brazilian Amazon in recent years, from 27 similar to Mkm2 in 2004 to 7 similar to Mkm2 in 2010. INPE-EM process-based estimates reflect this decrease even though the agricultural frontier is moving to areas of higher biomass. The decrease is slower than a non-process instantaneous model would estimate as it considers residual emissions (slash, wood products, and secondary vegetation). The average balance, considering all biomass, decreases from 0.28 in 2004 to 0.15 similar to Pg similar to C similar to yr-1 in 2009; the non-process model estimates a decrease from 0.33 to 0.10 similar to Pg similar to C similar to yr-1. We conclude that the INPE-EM is a powerful tool for representing deforestation-driven carbon emissions. Biomass estimates are still the largest source of uncertainty in the effective use of this type of model for informing mechanisms such as REDD+. The results also indicate that efforts to reduce emissions should focus not only on controlling primary forest deforestation but also on creating incentives for the restoration of secondary forests.
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Adopting the framework of the Jaynes-Cummings model with an external quantum field, we obtain exact analytical expressions of the normally ordered moments for any kind of cavity and driving fields. Such analytical results are expressed in the integral form, with their integrands having a commom term that describes the product of the Glauber-Sudarshan quasiprobability distribution functions for each field, and a kernel responsible for the entanglement. Considering a specific initial state of the tripartite system, the normally ordered moments are then applied to investigate not only the squeezing effect and the nonlocal correlation measure based on the total variance of a pair of Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen type operators for continuous variable systems, but also the Shchukin-Vogel criterion. This kind of numerical investigation constitutes the first quantitative characterization of the entanglement properties for the driven Jaynes-Cummings model.
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In this work a switching feedback controller for stick-slip compensation of a 2-DOF mass-spring-belt system which interacts with an energy source of limited power supply (non-ideal case) is developed. The system presents an oscillatory behavior due to the stick-slip friction. As the system equilibrium for a conventional feedback controller is not the origin, a switching control law combining a state feedback term and a discontinuous term is proposed to regulate the position of the mass. The problem of tracking a desired periodic trajectory is also considered. The feedback system is robust with respect to the friction force that is assumed to be within known upper and lower bounds.