Making decisions in the absence of clear facts: a historical perspective

Recently, a claim has been made that executive decisions makers, far from being fact collectors, are actually fact users and integrators. As such, the claim continues, executive decision makers need help in understanding how to interpret facts, as well as guidance in making decisions in the absence of clear facts. This report justifies this claim against the backdrop of the modern history of decision making, from 1956 to the present. The historical excursion serves to amplify and clarify the claim, as well as to develop a theoretical framework for making decisions in the absence of clear facts. Two essential issues are identified that impact upon decision making in the absence of clear facts, as well criteria for decision making effectiveness under such circumstances. Methodological requirements and practical objectives round off the theoretical framework. The historical analysis enables the identification of one particular established methodology as claiming to meet the methodological requirements of the theoretical framework. Since the methodology has yet to be tried on information-poor situations, a further project is proposed that will test its validity.

Toward convergence? The brazilian stock market concentration and the role of private equity in its diversification

Using quantitative data obtained from public available database, this paper discusses the difference between of the Brazilian GDP and the Brazilian Stock Exchange industry breakdown. I examined if, and to what extent, the industry breakdowns are similar. First, I found out that the Stock Exchange industry breakdown is overwhelming different from the GDP, which may present a potential problem to asset allocation and portfolio diversification in Brazil. Second, I identified an important evidence of a convergence between the GDP and the Stock Exchange in the last 9 years. Third, it became clear that the Privatizations in the late 90’s and IPO market from 2004 to 2008 change the dynamics of the Brazilian Stock Exchange. And fourth, I identified that Private Equity and Venture Capital industry may play an important role on the portfolio diversification in Brazil.

Developmental class coalitions: historical experiences and prospects

Este artigo discute o conceito de coalizões de classe como uma alternativa parcial à luta de classes na compreensão das sociedades capitalistas; define duas coalizões de classes básicas - a desenvolvimentista e a liberal; apresenta brevemente três coalizões de classe desenvolvimentistas paradigmáticas - a mercantilista, a bismarckiana, e a social-democrata (ou dos anos dourados do capitalismo); e usa esse arcabouço teórico para entender o capitalismo contemporâneo nos anos pós neoliberais - os anos que se seguem a crise financeira global de 2008

The BRICS: some historical experiences, growth challenges and opportunities

The acronym BRICS was a fad among the media and global investors. Now, the acronym sounds passé. However, the group of countries remains important, from both political and economic reasons. They have a large aggregate size, 28% of the global GDP and 42% of the world’s population, high growth potential due to the current significant misallocation of resources and relatively low stock of human capital, structural transformation is in progress and one of them, China, is taking steps to become a global power and a challenger to the US dominance. This paper provides a brief overview of the five economies, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. We focus on some aspects of their history, the Chinese initiatives in international finance and geopolitical strategic moves, their growth experience and structural transformation over the last 35 years, trade and investment integration into the global economy and among themselves, the growth challenges faced by their economies and the potential gains to the Brazilian economy from a stronger integration with the other BRICS. In association with its efforts to be a global power, China aims to become a major player in global finance and to achieve the status of global currency for the renminbi, which would be the first currency of an emerging economy to attain such position. Despite the similarities, the BRICS encompass very diverse economies. In the recent decades, China and India showed stellar growth rates. On the other hand, Brazil, Russia and South Africa have expanded just in line with global output growth with the Russian economy exhibiting high volatility. China is by far the largest economy, and South Africa the smallest, the only BRICS economy with a GDP lower than US$ 1 trillion. Russia abandoned communism almost 25 years ago, but reversed many of the privatizations of 90’s. China is still ruled by communism, but has a vibrant private sector and recently has officially declared market forces to play a dominant role in its economy. Brazil, Russia and South Africa are global natural resources powerhouses and commodity exporters while China and India are large commodity importers. Brazil is relatively closed to international trade of goods and services, in marked contrast to the other four economies. Brazil, India and South Africa are dependent on external capital flows whereas China and Russia are capital exporters. India and South Africa have younger populations and a large portion living below the poverty line. Despite its extraordinary growth experience that lifted many millions from poverty, China still has 28% of its population classified as poor. Russia and China have much older populations and one of their challenges is to deal with the effects of a declining labor force in the near future. India, China and South Africa face a long way to urbanization, while Brazil and Russia are already urbanized countries. China is an industrial economy but its primary sector still absorbs a large pool of workers. India is not, but the primary sector employs also a large share of the labor force. China’s aggregate demand structure is biased towards investment that has been driving its expansion. Brazil and South Africa have an aggregate demand structure similar to the developed economies, with private consumption accounting for approximately 70%. The same similarity applies to the supply side, as in both economies the share of services nears 70%. The development problem is a productivity problem, so microeconomic reforms are badly needed to foster long-term growth of the BRICS economies since they have lost steam due a variety of factors, but fundamentally due to slower total factor productivity growth. China and India are implementing ambitious reform programs, while Brazil is dealing with macroeconomic disequilibria. Russia and South Africa remain mute about structural reforms. There are some potential benefits to Brazil to be extracted from a greater economic integration with the BRICS, particularly in natural resources intensive industries and services. Necessary conditions to the materialization of those gains are the removal of the several sources of resource misallocation and strong investment in human capital.

International portfolio diversification: evidence from emerging markets

Taking into account previous research we could assume to be beneficial to diversify investments in emerging economies. We investigate in the paper International Portfolio Diversification: evidence from Emerging Markets if it still holds true, given the assumption of larger world markets integration. Our results suggest a wide spread positive time-varying correlations of emerging and developed markets. However, pair-wise cross-country correlations gave evidence that emerging markets have low integration with developed markets. Consequently, we evaluate out-of-sample performance of a portfolio with emerging equity countries, confirming the initial statement that it has a better a risk-adjusted performance over a purely developed markets portfolio.

How resource rich countries attract foreign direct investments: a study of Western Asian countries and strategies of industrialization and diversification

Fuel is a self-depleting resource and long term dependency on this commodity alone will not suffice. An export trade oriented approach can lead to faster industrialization while diversification leads to economic sustainable growth. This research seeks to understand how countries compete for foreign direct investments, and how certain activities have the most impact in the competitive global marketplace. Research suggests that when companies decide to invest abroad, they seek only to find countries that facilitate their strategic objectives. The results conclude with appropriate levels of government accountability, credibility and visibility with the private sector, foreign direct investment is attracted by policy advocacy and policy reform. By reviewing countries such as United Arab Emirates in direct comparison to Western Asian countries, including Kuwait and Iraq with high levels of fuel exports, along with Qatar with optimistic marketplace indicators and plentitude of skills and capabilities – research seems to suggest that despite high capabilities and attractive GDP, promotional investment activities yield the highest returns using policy advocacy and reform.

Ação pública na formação e transformação do destino turístico de Porto de Galinhas: um estudo dos referenciais no período de 1970 a 2010

The central interest of this thesis is to comprehend how the public action impels the formation and transformation of the tourist destinies. The research was based on the premise that the public actions are the result of the mediation process of state and non-state actors considered important in a section, which interact aiming for prevailing their interests and world visions above the others. The case of Porto de Galinhas beach, in Pernambuco, locus of the investigation of this thesis, allowed the analysis of a multiplicity of actors on the formation and implementation of local actions toward the development of the tourism between the years 1970 and 2010, as well as permitted the comprehension of the construction of the referential on the interventions made. This thesis, of a qualitative nature, has as theoretical support the cognitive approach of analysis of the public policies developed in France, and it has as main exponents the authors Bruno Jobert and Pierre Muller. This choice was made by the emphasis on the cognitive and normative factors of the politics, which aspects are not very explored in the studies of public policies in Brazil. As the source of the data collection, documental, bibliographic and field researches were utilized to the (re)constitution of the formation and transformation in the site concerned. The analysis techniques applied were the content and the documental analysis. To trace the public action referential, it started by the characterization of the touristic section frontiers and the creation of images by the main international body: the World Tourism Organization, of which analysis of the minutes of the meetings underscored guidelines to the member countries, including Brazil, which compounds the global-sectorial reference of the section. As from the analysis of the evolution of the tourism in the country, was identified that public policies in Brazil passed by transformations in their organization over the years, indicating changes in the referential that guided the interventions. These guidelines and transformations were identified in the construction of the tourist destination of Porto de Galinhas, of which data was systematized and presented in four historical periods, in which were discussed the values, the standard, the algorithms, the images and the important mediators. It has been revealed that the State worked in different roles in the decades analyzed in local tourism. From the 1990s, however, new actors were inserted in the formulation and implementation of policies developed, especially for local hotelkeepers. These, through their association, establishes a leadership relation in the local touristic section, thereby, they could set their hegemony and spread their own interest. The leadership acquired by a group of actors, in the case of Porto de Galinhas, does not mean that trade within the industry were neutralized, but that there is a cognitive framework that confronts the actors involved. In spite of the advances achieved by the work of the mediators in the last decades, that resulted in an amplification and diversification of the activity in the area, as well as the consolidation at the beach, as a tourist destiny of national standout, the position of the place is instable, concerned to the competitiveness, once that there is an situation of social and environmental unsustainability

O city marketing em Natal/RN e a construção da imagem da cidade

The growing importance of tourism in overall economic activity worldwide has favored the intensification of competition among cities that seek to create environments attractive to tourists and potential investors. It has been common practice to import characteristics of the business environment in the public management of cities. The city marketing is a key tool used by public leaders to promote a linkage between the tourism image and urban image and involves, in addition to promoting the image of the city, the planning of interventions in urban space, trying to formulate a positive image of the city able to facilitate the deployment of capital. This research seeks to understand the nature of city marketing as part of contemporary urban management and analyzes how is its application in decisions concerning the promotion of tourism in Natal/RN. The approach of this research is qualitative, exploratory and descriptive, in which respondents were the main leaders of two of the official tourism site, the Empresa Potiguar de Promoção Turística and the Secretaria Municipal de Turismo e Desenvolvimento Econômico. It was found that there is a strong articulation of public power with private enterprise in the design and conduct of the actions of urban marketing, that from the survey data show that the behavior of target markets provide guidelines for taking strategic decisions relating to tourism. Sun and sea are some key elements explored to form the image of Natal and to authorize the sale of the city as a tropical paradise. However, there is an increase in the diversification of tourism products, seeking to increase flow to the segments of ecotourism, adventure, business and culture. It s also growing the use of local culture as a tourism product, however, the cultural representation focuses on superficial values and does not bring to light the social and historical richness that the city has. Public authorities use the city marketing strategies as a means able to maximize the attractiveness of Natal urban space to investors, business groups and tourists. It can be observed that urban managers seek solutions that can continuously increase the tours, which often manifests in interventions that focus the tourist areas of the city, in oposition of those who do not contribute to a positive reading of the city, which ultimately generate the worsening of spacial and social inequalities

Cryptic lineages and Pleistocene population expansion in a Brazilian Cerrado frog

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Gêneros do discurso e escrita: o que as coleções didáticas de português (des)prestigiam no ensino da produção textual?

Through the examination of official indicators, it can be observed that writing is pointed out as one of the main problems concerning formal basic education. However, this teaching-learning object is one of the central objectives at school, having an essential role in different curricular components as well as in the interaction demands required by society. Such paradox indicates, therefore, the relevance of investigations which analyze the intrinsic elements of child development as written text producer. Hence, the main purpose of this research consists of analyzing the treatment given to the types of discourse and the teaching situations in which the written text are produced, concerning Portuguese language didactic material collections approved by Programa Nacional do Livro Didático (PNLD 2010) the Brazilian program of didactic book and worked at elementary school. Such materials correspond to the collections adopted in municipal education system schools from Natal, RN which were below the official education indicator IDEB 2009. Thus, the questions that guide this work are: 1. During writing production lessons, is the diversity of types of discourse effectively worked on didactic collections? 2. Which are the types of discourse and the social spheres prioritized when teaching writing production? 3. How is the situation addressed in the production of the written text should be produced? For this research, we retook the authors Bakhtin, Bunzen, Faraco, Freire, Rodrigues, Rojo, Schneuwly e Dolz and we made a list of all types of discourse and spheres contemplated in the propositions of the writing production in didactical books, concerning the eight collections which compounds the first moment of analysis. Then, we verified how the situation of production is oriented by examining two didactic collections if and how they express the elements referring to the social-historical, functional and linguistic-discursive context of the text to be produced. The data obtained indicate: lack of diversification of types of discourse in the collection that compounds the Aggregate Sample of the research; the conception of a diversity based on the didactic of visiting; the recognition of all canonical and hegemonic types of text as one of the privileged objects of study; the centralization on the standard variety of the language and the devaluation of the representative types of cultural diversity; the shortage of productions which retrace to written language related to different technologies of communication and information; and the little emphasis on the types of discourse related to public language practices. As for the situations of production, it is observed the predominance of the school as a producer of dialogic relationships, whose propositions present, for example, text addressees, enunciative positions, support and contexts of restricted circulation, especially at school. Two divergent situations are observed among the collections: the lack of a work in which the situation of production is under the perspective of the types of discourse as object of teaching-learning; the concept of the types of discourse as object of reflection, presenting a differentiated didactic orientation towards the situation of production. This research contributes, therefore, with a mapping of the existence and the treatment of the types of discourse on propositions of writing production in didactic books; with the critical analysis of the approach of written activities, considering the elements of the historical-social, functional and linguistic-discursive context; thus, through teaching, research and public policies, use and selection of didactic material for the area

Os caminhos da transição agroecológica: uma análise das experiências da agricultura familiar camponesa no território dos Vales do Curu e aracatiaçu-CE

This study examines peasant family farming from an agroecological perspective. It intends to analyze the changes resulting from the transition from conventional to agro-ecological agriculture in the daily practices of farmers articulated associated with the Network of Agroecological and Solidarity Farmers of the Curu and Aracatiaçu Valleys Territory, the locus of this empirical research, and a space which has highlighted the social dynamics of agroecological innovation, as well as articulating environmental exchanges and knowledge development. As a way to further that goal, we seek to identify the forms of social organization previously present in the daily lives of these subjects, in addition to grasping the determinants that lead or led them to adopt agroecology, noting the need to verify the forms of resistance, and the strategies adopted by farmers and how they articulate collectively. Through the historical and dialectical methods, we seek to take the implications of technical modernization of agriculture under the conditions of production and reproduction of peasants and thus situate the emergence of agroecology, a focus that is born as a counterpoint to conventional patterns of agricultural development based on the paradigm of the Green Revolution. We structured this study around the trajectory of agroecological farmers that developed and internalized agroecological practices, processes, and organizational forms. For the analysis, we used theoretical and methodological frameworks from literature related to field research. The systematization and analysis of experiments revealed that agroecological transition is a broad process of change, not restricted to technical matters. We observed changes in production practices, diversification of production and feeding practices, ecological awareness, production autonomy, and organizations formed to face the challenges resulting from the imposition of the dominant agricultural development model that combines environmental degradation, land ownership concentration, and wealth concentration

HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE and HUMAN CONSEQUENCES of AFRICANIZED BEE STINGS IN THE AMERICAS

In 1956, Africanized bees began to spread in the American continent from southern Brazil, where original African bees mated with European bees. A few years later, in 1990, these Africanized bees reached the United States and were found in Texas. Currently, these hybrid bees are found in several North American states and will probably reach the Canadian border in the future. Although the presence of Africanized bees had produced positive effects on Brazilian economy, including improvement in crop pollination and in honey production, turning Brazil into a major exporter, the negative impacts-such as swarming, aggressive behavior, and the ability to mass attack-resulted in serious and fatal envenomation with humans and animals. Victims of bee attacks usually develop a severe envenomation syndrome characterized by the release of a large amount of cytokines [interleukins (IL) IL-1, IL-6, IL-8], and tumor necrosis factor (TNF). Subsequently, such cytokines produce an acute inflammatory response that triggers adverse effects on skeletal muscles; bone marrow; hepatic and renal functions; and cardiovascular, central nervous, and immune systems. Finally, the aim of the present review is to study historical characteristics and current status of Africanized bees' spread, the composition of their venom, the impact of the bees on the Brazilian economy and ecology, and clinical aspects of their stings including immune response, and to suggest a protocol for bee sting management since there is no safe and effective antivenom available.

O ensino de pediatria na atenção básica em saúde entre as fronteiras do modelo biomédico e a perspectiva da integralidade do cuidado: a visão dos médicos supervisores

Trata-se de estudo sobre educação médica, focalizado no ensino de pediatria na atenção básica, com o objetivo de analisar a contribuição da disciplina de Pediatria Social e Comunitária no 4º ano de graduação em medicina da Faculdade de Medicina de Botucatu, Universidade Estadual Paulista.Utilizou-se metodologia qualitativa de pesquisa, tendo como estratégia o estudo de caso. A análise foi fundamentada na abordagem sócio-histórica, subsidiada pelos estudos de Vigotski. Identificou-se o que os supervisores consideraram como aprendizados relevantes a sua contribuição no processo de mediação para que os estudantes aprendam sobre o processo de trabalho na atenção básica, o que não poderiam alcançar sozinhos. As entrevistas transcritas revelaram núcleos de significação comuns: importância da diversificação de cenários de ensino, aprendizado dos principais problemas de saúde, integralidade no atendimento da criança, com ênfase no vínculo e oportunidade do estudante aprender sobre promoção da saúde.

Molecular systematic and historical biogeography of the armored Neotropical catfishes Hypoptopomatinae and Neoplecostominae (Siluriformes: Loricariidae)

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)