Marine regime shifts in ocean biogeochemical models: a case study in the Gulf of Alaska

Regime shifts have been reported in many marine ecosystems, and are often expressed as an abrupt change occurring in multiple physical and biological components of the system. In the Gulf of Alaska, a regime shift in the late 1970s was observed, indicated by an abrupt increase in sea surface temperature and major shifts in the catch of many fish species. This late 1970s regime shift in the Gulf of Alaska was followed by another shift in the late 1980s, not as pervasive as the 1977 shift, but which nevertheless did not return to the prior state. A thorough understanding of the extent and mechanisms leading to such regime shifts is challenged by data paucity in time and space. We investigate the ability of a suite of ocean biogeochemistry models of varying complexity to simulate regime shifts in the Gulf of Alaska by examining the presence of abrupt changes in time series of physical variables (sea surface temperature and mixed layer depth), nutrients and biological variables (chlorophyll, primary productivity and plankton biomass) using change-point analysis. Our study demonstrates that ocean biogeochemical models are capable of simulating the late 1970s shift, indicating an abrupt increase in sea surface temperature forcing followed by an abrupt decrease in nutrients and biological productivity. This predicted shift is consistent among all the models, although some of them exhibit an abrupt transition (i.e. a significant shift from one year to the next), whereas others simulate a smoother transition. Some models further suggest that the late 1980s shift was constrained by changes in mixed layer depth. Our study demonstrates that ocean biogeochemical can successfully simulate regime shifts in the Gulf of Alaska region, thereby providing better understanding of how changes in physical conditions are propagated from lower to upper trophic levels through bottom-up controls.

The Cost of Drug Use in Adolescence: Young People, Money and Substance Abuse.

It is now common for young people in full-time compulsory education to hold part-time jobs. However, whilst the 1990s experienced a rise in illicit drug use particularly among young people and an increase in the level of interest for identifying factors associated with drug use, little attention has been paid to the influence of the money young people have to spend and its potential links with drug use. Four thousand five hundred and twenty-four young people living in Northern Ireland completed a questionnaire in school year 10 (aged 13/14 years). The findings suggested there was a positive association between the amount of money (and its source) young people received and higher rates of drug use. The study concludes that money, and how it is spent by young people, may be an important factor for consideration when investigating drug use during adolescence. The findings may help inform drug prevention strategies particularly through advice on money management, and taking responsibility for their own money.

Accountability and Value for Money in Private Finance Initiative Contracts

Within the context of New Public Management (NPM), successive UK governments have claimed that PFI projects provide more accountability, and arguably, more value for money (VFM) than conventional procurement for the public (HM Treasury 1995, 2000, 2003a and 2003b). However, recent empirical research in the UK on PFI has indicated its potential limitations for accountability and VFM (Broadbent, Gill and Laughlin, 2004; Edwards, Shaoul, Stafford and Arblaster, 2004; Shaoul, 2005; and Ismail and Pendlebury, 2006) albeit these are based on either published accounts or a limited number of key stakeholders. This paper attempts to partially redress this gap in the literature by presenting an interesting case of the impact of PFI on accountability and VFM in Northern Ireland's education sector. The findings of this research, based on forty two interviews with a wide range of key stakeholders, suggest that stakeholders have different and often conflicting expectations and the actual PFI accountability and VFM benefits are much more obfuscated than those claimed in Government publications.

Palaeoclimate change recorded in Upper Cretaceous (Albian-Cenomanian) Kazhdumi Formation Borehole spectral Gamma-Ray Logs, South Pars Gas field, Persian Gulf

Th/U and Th/K data from spectral gamma-ray logs obtained from outcrop successions have been used as a rapid and inexpensive proxy for determining possible episodes of humid-arid palaeoclimate change. Such outcrop-based measurements have never been tested using spectral gamma-ray data obtained from wireline logs in subsurface boreholes. Th/K and Th/U ratios have traditionally been used to decipher sequence stratigraphic patterns, at outcrop and in borehole. The possible influence of palaeoclimate on such ratio changes has yet to be proven, especially from borehole data. In this work, we compare borehole-derived Th/K (and to a lesser extent Th/U) to palaeoenvironmental changes inferred from palynology and deduce that both sea level and changing hinterland weathering regimes caused discrete fluctuations observed in the spectral gamma-ray logs. This is the first time such subsurface information has been used in this way. Interpretation of wireline logs in terms of palaeoclimate as well as sea level may now be considered, and the use of such logs in palaeoclimate reconstruction is strengthened.

Accountability and Value for Money: A Framework for Exploring the Relationship in Private Finance Initiative Contracts

There is an implicit assumption in the UK Treasury’s publications on public-private partnerships (PPP) – also more commonly known in the United Kingdom as private finance initiative (PFI) - that accountability and value for money (VFM) are related concepts. While recent academic studies on PPP/PFI (from now on as PFI) have focused on VFM, there is a notable absence of studies exploring the ‘presumed’ relationships between accountability and VFM. Drawing on Dubnick’s (Dubnick and Romzek, 1991, 1993; Dubnick, 1996, 1998, 2003, 2005; Dubnick and Justice, 2002) framework for accountability and PFI literature, we develop a research framework for exploring potential relationships between accountability and VFM in PFI projects by proposing alternative accountability cultures, processes and mechanisms for PFI. The PFI accountability model is then exposed to four criteria - warrantability, tractability, measurability and feasibility. Our preliminary interviews provide us guidance in identifying some of the cultures, processes and mechanisms indicated in our model which should enable future researchers to test not only the UK Government’s claimed relationships between accountability and VFM using more specific PFI empirical data, but also a potential relationship between accountability and performance in general.