The burden of mental disorders in Victoria, 1996

Background: Between 1998 and 1999, a burden of disease assessment was carried out in Victoria, Australia applying and improving on the methods of the Global Burden of Disease Study. This paper describes the methods and results of the calculations of the burden due to 22 mental disorders, adding 14 conditions not included in previous burden of disease estimates, Methods: The National Survey of Mental Health and Wellbeing provided recent data on the occurrence of the major adult mental disorders in Australia. Data from international studies and expert advice further contributed to the construction of disease models, describing each condition in terms of incidence, average duration and level of severity, with adjustments for comorbidity with other mental disorders. Disability weights for the time spent in different states of mental ill health were borrowed mainly from a study in the Netherlands, supplemented by weights derived in a local extrapolation exercise. Results: Mental disorders were the third largest group of conditions contributing to the burden of disease in Victoria, ranking behind cancers and cardiovascular diseases. Depression was the greatest cause of disability in both men and women. Eight other mental disorders in men and seven in women ranked among the top twenty causes of disability. Conclusions: Insufficient information on the natural history of many of the mental disorders, the limited information on the validity of mental disorder diagnoses in community surveys and considerable differences between ICD-10 and DSM-IV defined diagnoses were the main concerns about the accuracy of the estimates. Similar and often greater concerns have been raised in relation to the estimation of the burden from common non-fatal physical conditions such as asthma, diabetes and osteoarthritis. In comparison, psychiatric epidemiology can boast greater scientific rigour in setting standards for population surveys.

Heat flow for the Yang-Mills-Higgs field and the Hermitian Yang-Mills-Higgs metric

For a parameter lambda > 0, we study a type of vortex equations, which generalize the well-known Hermitian-Einstein equation, for a connection A and a section phi of a holomorphic vector bundle E over a Kahler manifold X. We establish a global existence of smooth solutions to heat flow for a self-dual Yang-Mills-Higgs field on E. Assuming the lambda -stability of (E, phi), we prove the existence of the Hermitian Yang-Mills-Higgs metric on the holomorphic bundle E by studying the limiting behaviour of the gauge flow.

Challenges and approaches to estimating mortality attributable to the use of selected illicit drugs

A number of unique challenges are faced when attempting to estimate mortality attributable to illicit drugs. The hidden nature of illicit drug use creates difficulties in quantifying the prevalence of such use; identifying adverse health effects associated with exposure, and calculating the risk of these effects. The use of cohort studies of drug users allows the identification of causes of mortality associated with drug use and the determination of the risk of these causes. This risk estimate can then be used in conjunction with estimates of the prevalence of drug use to, extrapolate the burden of mortality. We identify a number of such studies and present some solutions to the major challenges faced when attempting to estimate the global burden of mortality attributable to illicit drug use. Copyright (C) 2001 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Small area population disease burden

Small area health statistics has assumed increasing importance as the focus of population and public health moves to a more individualised approach of smaller area populations. Small populations and low event occurrence produce difficulties in interpretation and require appropriate statistical methods, including for age adjustment. There are also statistical questions related to multiple comparisons. Privacy and confidentiality issues include the possibility of revealing information on individuals or health care providers by fine cross-tabulations. Interpretation of small area population differences in health status requires consideration of migrant and Indigenous composition, socio-economic status and rural-urban geography before assessment of the effects of physical environmental exposure and services and interventions. Burden of disease studies produce a single measure for morbidity and mortality - disability adjusted life year (DALY) - which is the sum of the years of life lost (YLL) from premature mortality and the years lived with disability (YLD) for particular diseases (or all conditions). Calculation of YLD requires estimates of disease incidence (and complications) and duration, and weighting by severity. These procedures often mean problematic assumptions, as does future discounting and age weighting of both YLL and YLD. Evaluation of the Victorian small area population disease burden study presents important cross-disciplinary challenges as it relies heavily on synthetic approaches of demography and economics rather than on the empirical methods of epidemiology. Both empirical and synthetic methods are used to compute small area mortality and morbidity, disease burden, and then attribution to risk factors. Readers need to examine the methodology and assumptions carefully before accepting the results.

The neutral hydrogen content of Fornax cluster galaxies

We present a new set of deep H I observations of member galaxies of the Fornax cluster. We detected 35 cluster galaxies in H I. The resulting sample, the most comprehensive to date, is used to investigate the distribution of neutral hydrogen in the cluster galaxies. We compare the H I content of the detected cluster galaxies with that of field galaxies by measuring H I mass-to-light ratios and the H I deficiency parameter of Solanes et al. (1996). The mean H I mass-to-light ratio of the cluster galaxies is 0.68 +/- 0.15, significantly lower than for a sample of H I-selected field galaxies (1.15 +/- 0.10), although not as low as in the Virgo cluster (0.45 +/- 0.03). In addition, the H I content of two cluster galaxies (NGC1316C and NGC1326B) appears to have been affected by interactions. The mean H I deficiency for the cluster is 0.38 +/- 0.09 (for galaxy types T = 1-6), significantly greater than for the field sample (0.05 +/- 0.03). Both these tests show that Fornax cluster galaxies are H I-deficient compared to field galaxies. The kinematics of the cluster galaxies suggests that the H I deficiency may be caused by ram-pressure stripping of galaxies on orbits that pass close to the cluster core. We also derive the most complete B-band Tully-Fisher relation of inclined spiral galaxies in Fornax. A subcluster in the South-West of the main cluster contributes considerably to the scatter. The scatter for galaxies in the main cluster alone is 0.50 mag, which is slightly larger than the intrinsic scatter of 0.4 mag. We use the Tully-Fisher relation to derive a distance modulus of Fornax relative to the Virgo cluster of -0.38 +/- 0.14 mag. The galaxies in the subcluster are (1.0 +/- 0.5) mag brighter than the galaxies of the main cluster, indicating that they are situated in the foreground. With their mean velocity 95 km s(-1) higher than that of the main cluster we conclude that the subcluster is falling into the main Fornax cluster.

MHCWeb: Converting a WWW database into a knowledge-based collaborative environment

The World Wide Web (WWW) is useful for distributing scientific data. Most existing web data resources organize their information either in structured flat files or relational databases with basic retrieval capabilities. For databases with one or a few simple relations, these approaches are successful, but they can be cumbersome when there is a data model involving multiple relations between complex data. We believe that knowledge-based resources offer a solution in these cases. Knowledge bases have explicit declarations of the concepts in the domain, along with the relations between them. They are usually organized hierarchically, and provide a global data model with a controlled vocabulary, We have created the OWEB architecture for building online scientific data resources using knowledge bases. OWEB provides a shell for structuring data, providing secure and shared access, and creating computational modules for processing and displaying data. In this paper, we describe the translation of the online immunological database MHCPEP into an OWEB system called MHCWeb. This effort involved building a conceptual model for the data, creating a controlled terminology for the legal values for different types of data, and then translating the original data into the new structure. The 0 WEB environment allows for flexible access to the data by both users and computer programs.

The burden of disease and injury in Australia

An overview of the results of the Australian Burden of Disease (ABD) study is presented. The ABD study was the first to use methodology developed for the Global Burden of Disease study to measure the burden of disease and injury in a developed country. In 1996, mental disorders were the main causes of disability burden, responsible for nearly 30% of total years of life lost to disability (YLD), with depression accounting for 8% of the total YLD. Ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the main contributors to the disease burden disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), together causing nearly 18% of the total disease burden. Risk factors such as smoking, alcohol consumption, physical inactivity, hypertension, high blood cholesterol, obesity and inadequate fruit and vegetable consumption were responsible for much of the overall disease burden in Australia. The lessons learnt from the ABD study are discussed, together with methodological issues that require further attention.

The VITATOPS (vitamins to prevent stroke) Trial: Rationale and design of an international, large, simple, randomised trial of homocysteine-lowering multivitamin therapy in patients with recent transient ischaemic attack or stroke

Background: Epidemiological studies suggest that raised plasma concentrations of total homocysteine (tHcy) may be a common, causal and treatable risk factor for atherothromboembolic ischaemic stroke. Although tHcy can be lowered effectively with small doses of folic acid, vitamin B-12 and vitamin B-6, it is not known whether lowering tHcy, by means of multivitamin therapy, can prevent stroke and other major atherothromboembolic vascular events. Purpose: To determine whether vitamin supplements (folic acid 2 mg, B-6 25 Mg, B-12 500 mug) reduce the risk of stroke, and other serious vascular events, in patients with recent stroke or transient ischaemic attacks of the brain or eye (TIA). Methods: An international, multi-centre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial. Results: As of November 2001, more than 1,400 patients have been randomised from 10 countries in four continents. Conclusion: VITATOPS aims to recruit and follow up 8,000 patients between 2000 and 2004, and provide a reliable estimate of the safety and effectiveness of dietary supplementation with folic acid, vitamin B-12, and vitamin B-6 in reducing recurrent serious vascular events among a wide range of patients with TIA and stroke. Copyright (C) 2002 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Progress in integrated assessment and modelling

Environmental processes have been modelled for decades. However. the need for integrated assessment and modeling (IAM) has,town as the extent and severity of environmental problems in the 21st Century worsens. The scale of IAM is not restricted to the global level as in climate change models, but includes local and regional models of environmental problems. This paper discusses various definitions of IAM and identifies five different types of integration that Lire needed for the effective solution of environmental problems. The future is then depicted in the form of two brief scenarios: one optimistic and one pessimistic. The current state of IAM is then briefly reviewed. The issues of complexity and validation in IAM are recognised as more complex than in traditional disciplinary approaches. Communication is identified as a central issue both internally among team members and externally with decision-makers. stakeholders and other scientists. Finally it is concluded that the process of integrated assessment and modelling is considered as important as the product for any particular project. By learning to work together and recognise the contribution of all team members and participants, it is believed that we will have a strong scientific and social basis to address the environmental problems of the 21st Century. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Vaccines for papillomavirus infection

Vaccines to prevent PV infection, utilising PV L1 virus like particles (VLPs) to induce neutralising antibody, are in clinical trial and show all the characteristics likely to be associated with success. Results warrant global planning for the deployment of VLP vaccines within a decade, as part of a program to prevent cervical cancer. Vaccines designed to treat existing PV infection by inducing therapeutic cellular immunity targeted to PV proteins are at a much earlier stage of development. The wide choice of potential and proposed antigens, routes and mechanisms of delivery, and possible treatment regimens suggest that, to move the field forward, surrogate markers allowing comparison of the relative efficacy of different vaccine approaches are required. These should be based on reduction in load of virus infection, and need to be validated in animal models or in man. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Olanzapine vs risperidone in the management of schizophrenia: a randomized double-blind trial in Australia and New Zealand

Improved drug therapy for schizophrenia may represent the best strategy for reducing the costs of schizophrenia and the recurrent chronic course of the disease. Olanzapine and risperidone are atypical antipsychotic agents developed to meet this need. We report a multicenter, double-blind, parallel, 30-week study designed to compare the efficacy, safety, and associated resource use for olanzapine and risperidone in Australia and New Zealand. The study sample consisted of 65 patients who met DSM-IV criteria for schizophrenia, schizoaffective disorder, or schizophreniform disorder. Olanzapine-treated patients showed a significantly greater reduction in Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) total, Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS) total, and PANSS General Psychopathology scores at endpoint compared to the risperidone-treated patients. Response rates through 30 weeks showed a significantly greater proportion of olanzapine-treated patients had achieved a 20% or greater improvement in their PANSS total score compared to risperidone-treated patients. Olanzapine and risperidone were equivalent in their improvement of PANSS positive and negative scores and Clinical Global Impression-Severity of Illness scale (CGI-S) at endpoint. Using generic and disease-specific measures of quality of life, olanzapine-treated patients showed significant within-group improvement in most measures, and significant differences were observed in favor of olanzapine over risperidone in Quality of Life Scale (QLS) Intrapsychic Foundation and Medical Outcomes Study Short Form 36-item instrument (SF-36) Role Functioning Limitations-Emotional subscale scores. Despite the relatively small sample size, our study suggests that olanzapine has a superior risk:benefit profile compared to risperidone. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Causes and consequences of long-term climatic variability on the Australian continent

1. Ice-volume forced glacial-interglacial cyclicity is the major cause of global climate variation within the late Quaternary period. Within the Australian region, this variation is expressed predominantly as oscillations in moisture availability. Glacial periods were substantially drier than today with restricted distribution of mesic plant communities, shallow or ephemeral water bodies and extensive aeolian dune activity. 2. Superimposed on this cyclicity in Australia is a trend towards drier and/or more variable climates within the last 350 000 years. This trend may have been initiated by changes in atmospheric and ocean circulation resulting from Australia's continued movement into the Southeast Asian region and involving the onset or intensification of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation system and a reduction in summer monsoon activity. 3. Increased biomass burning, stemming originally from increased climatic variability and later enhanced by activities of indigenous people, resulted in a more open and sclerophyllous vegetation, increased salinity and a further reduction in water availability. 4. Past records combined with recent observations suggest that the degree of environmental variability will increase and the drying trend will be enhanced in the foreseeable future, regardless of the extent or nature of human intervention.

Role of compaction versus aggregate disruption on slumping and shrinking of repacked hardsetting seedbeds

Slumping of hardsetting seedbeds upon wetting is likely to determine the shrinking and development of strength on drying. Different processes have been invoked, including aggregate disruption, material relocation, and compaction. To gain a better understanding of the role played by compaction compared with aggregate disruption in seedbed slumping and shrinking, mechanical analysis was combined with previous morphogenetical description. The global structural behavior of repacked seedbeds of a hardsetting sandy loam soil was studied after wetting and again after subsequent drying. Bulk density was measured in 5-mm-depth increments using gamma attenuation, and water content was determined at 10-mm-depth increments. Various wetting conditions were used to simulate a range of climatic and management conditions, including flood irrigation, furrow irrigation of a formed seedbed, drip irrigation, and rainfall. Aggregate coalescence under overburden pressure played the main role in slumping, even though microcracking enhanced coalescence. Most of the slumping occurred at calculated effective stress > 1.1 kPa. Intense aggregate breakdown at the top of seedbeds under fast wetting led to slight slumping because the resulting clogging of the initial interaggregate packing voids was balanced, in part, by the increase in microporosity resulting from aggregate disruption. However, aggregate coalescence induced by overburden pressure developing at the seedbed bottom often resulted in a strong decrease in total porosity. The effect of rainfall kinetic energy on crust bulk density was strong compared with the effect of fast wetting (bulk density increase of about 0.07 Mg m(-3) and 0.03 Mg m(-3), respectively) and could be ascribed to compaction rather than to aggregate breakdown. Shrinking on drying was related to the continuity of the microstructure resulting from wetting rather than to the intensity of slumping. Aggregate breakdown led to more shrinking than did aggregate coalescence.

Predicting sheetwash and rill erosion over the Australian continent

Soil erosion is a major environmental issue in Australia. It reduces land productivity and has off-site effects of decreased water quality. Broad-scale spatially distributed soil erosion estimation is essential for prioritising erosion control programs and as a component of broader assessments of natural resource condition. This paper describes spatial modelling methods and results that predict sheetwash and rill erosion over the Australian continent using the revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE) and spatial data layers for each of the contributing environmental factors. The RUSLE has been used before in this way but here we advance the quality of estimation. We use time series of remote sensing imagery and daily rainfall to incorporate the effects of seasonally varying cover and rainfall intensity, and use new digital maps of soil and terrain properties. The results are compared with a compilation of Australian erosion plot data, revealing an acceptable consistency between predictions and observations. The modelling results show that: (1) the northern part of Australia has greater erosion potential than the south; (2) erosion potential differs significantly between summer and winter; (3) the average erosion rate is 4.1 t/ha. year over the continent and about 2.9 x 10(9) tonnes of soil is moved annually which represents 3.9% of global soil erosion from 5% of world land area; and (4) the erosion rate has increased from 4 to 33 times on average for agricultural lands compared with most natural vegetated lands.

Reshaping the global agricultural landscape: perspectives from Brazil

This article highlights the main changes observed in Brazilian agriculture and analyzes the connections of the observed changes in global agriculture. My approach to the analysis focuses the main drivers of changes, where institutions play a central role. Three driving forces are are considered: first, the effects of global demand for food, fiber, and energy; second, the sustainability debate; and third, the bio-energy paradigm. Each driver presents both local as well as global effects. The article does not emphasize the impact changes in Brazil had on the global agricultural landscape but argues that the impacts run from local and global changes, which cannot be discussed separately.