The international impact of productivity shocks

Even though many studies have confirmed the Feldstein-Horioka (1980) finding that savings and investment rates are highly correlated, there is no consensus on the major reason for this correlation. The purpose of this dissertation is to develop theoretical models and calibrate and simulate these to compare their implications to explain the observed time-series comovement between savings and investment in an attempt to show that this high correlation may stem from technological shocks.^ The dissertation is comprised of three studies. The first two studies construct overlapping-generations, two-economy models of saving and investment under conditions of perfect international capital mobility. The second study differs from the first by endogenizing the labor supply. Employing simulations, the models are used to generate time-series for savings and investment. These are then compared with the actual data for specific economies. The models show that productivity shocks produce a high correlation between savings and investment. Further, while the model with exogenous labor supply displays monotonic adjustment, the economy with endogenous labor supply adjusts cyclically.^ The third model, on the other hand, constructs a general equilibrium model for a small open economy. The study is based on two important elements: adjustment costs in investment and endogenous, recursive time preferences. Again, the simulation results show that the model generates, at least in a significant part of the adjustment path, a positive correlation between domestic savings and investment in response to a supply shock. ^

An evaluation of exchange rate policy and economic adjustment in Nicaragua, 1993--1995

Since the late 1970's, but particularly since the mid-1980s, the economy of Nicaragua has had persistent and large macroeconomic imbalances, while GDP per-capita has declined to 1950s' levels. By the second half of the 1990s, huge fiscal deficits and a reduction of foreign financing resulted in record hyperinflation. The Sandinista government's (1979–1990) harsh stabilization program in 1988–89 had only modest and short-lived success. It was doomed by their inability to lower the public sector deficit due to the war, plus diminishing financial support from abroad. Hyperinflation stopped only after their 1990 electoral defeat ended the war and massive aid began to flow in. Five years later, macroeconomic stability is still very fragile. A sluggish recovery of export agriculture plus import liberalization, have impeded a reduction of huge trade and current account deficits. Facing the prospects of diminished aid flows, the government's strategy has hinged on the achievement of a real devaluation through a crawling-peg adjustment of the nominal rate. However, at the end of 1995 the situation of the external accounts was still critical, and the modest progress achieved was attributable to cyclical terms-of-trade improvement and changes in the political outlook of agricultural producers. Using a Computable General Equilibrium Model and a Social Accounting Matrix constructed for this dissertation, the importance of structural rigidities in production and demand in explaining such outcome is shown. It is shown that under the plausible structural assumptions incorporated in the model, the role of devaluation in the adjustment process is restricted by structural rigidities. Moreover, contrary to the premise of the orthodox economic thinking behind the economic program, it is the contractionary effect of devaluation more than its expenditure-switching effects that provide the basis for is use in solving the external sector's problems. A fixed nominal exchange rate is found to lead to adverse results. The broader conclusion that emerges from the study is that a new social compact and a rapid increase in infrastructure spending plus fiscal support for the traditional agro-export activities is at the center of a successful adjustment towards external viability in Nicaragua. ^

Essays in open economy macroeconomics

Research macroeconomists have witnessed remarkable methodological developments in mathematical, statistical, and computational tools during the last two decades. The three essays in this dissertation took advantage of these advances to analyze important macroeconomic issues. ^ The first essay, “ Habit Formation, Adjustments Costs, and International Business Cycle Puzzles” analyzes the extent to which incorporating habit formation and adjustment costs in investment in a one-good two-country general equilibrium model would help overcome some of the international business cycle puzzles. Unlike standard results in the literature, the model generates persistent, cyclical adjustment paths in response to shocks. It also yields positive cross-country correlations in consumption, employment, investment, and output. Cross-country correlations in output are higher than the ones in consumption. This is qualitatively consistent with the stylized facts. These results are particularly striking given the predicted negative correlations in investment, employment, and output that are typically found in the literature. ^ The second essay, “Comparison Utility, Endogenous Time Preference, and Economic Growth,” uses World War II as a natural experiment to analyze the degree to which a model where consumers' preferences exhibit comparison-based utility and endogenous discounting is able to improve upon existing models in mimicking the transitional dynamics of an economy after a shock that destroys part of its capital stock. The model outperforms existing ones in replicating the behavior of the saving rate (both on impact and along the transient paths) after this historical event. This result brings additional support to the endogenous rate of time preference being a crucial element in growth models. ^ The last essay, “Monetary Policy under Fear of Floating: Modeling the Dominican Economy,” presents a small scale macroeconomic model for a country (Dominican Republic) characterized by a strong presence of fear of floating (reluctance to have a flexible exchange rate regime) in the conduct of monetary policy. The dynamic responses of this economy to external shocks that are of interest for monetary policy purposes are analyzed under two alternative interest rate policy rules: One being the standard Taylor rule and another that responds explicitly to deviations of the exchange rate with respect to its long-term trend. ^

Essays on international lending and increasing returns to scale

Standard economic theory suggests that capital should flow from rich countries to poor countries. However, capital has predominantly flowed to rich countries. The three essays in this dissertation attempt to explain this phenomenon. The first two essays suggest theoretical explanations for why capital has not flowed to the poor countries. The third essay empirically tests the theoretical explanations.^ The first essay examines the effects of increasing returns to scale on international lending and borrowing with moral hazard. Introducing increasing returns in a two-country general equilibrium model yields possible multiple equilibria and helps explain the possibility of capital flows from a poor to a rich country. I find that a borrowing country may need to borrow sufficient amounts internationally to reach a minimum investment threshold in order to invest domestically.^ The second essay examines how a poor country may invest in sectors with low productivity because of sovereign risk, and how collateral differences across sectors may exacerbate the problem. I model sovereign borrowing with a two-sector economy: one sector with increasing returns to scale (IRS) and one sector with diminishing returns to scale (DRS). Countries with incomes below a threshold will only invest in the DRS sector, and countries with incomes above a threshold will invest mostly in the IRS sector. The results help explain the existence of a bimodal world income distribution.^ The third essay empirically tests the explanations for why capital has not flowed from the rich to the poor countries, with a focus on institutions and initial capital. I find that institutional variables are a very important factor, but in contrast to other studies, I show that institutions do not account for the Lucas Paradox. Evidence of increasing returns still exists, even when controlling for institutions and other variables. In addition, I find that the determinants of capital flows may depend on whether a country is rich or poor.^

Investigating the outcomes of two chronic disease self-management programs and understanding the correlates of completion for each program

Chronic disease affects 80% of adults over the age of 65 and is expected to increase in prevalence. To address the burden of chronic disease, self-management programs have been developed to increase self-efficacy and improve quality of life by reducing or halting disease symptoms. Two programs that have been developed to address chronic disease are the Chronic Disease Self-Management Program (CDSMP) and Tomando Control de su Salud (TCDS). CDSMP and TCDS both focus on improving participant self-efficacy, but use different curricula, as TCDS is culturally tailored for the Hispanic population. Few studies have evaluated the effectiveness of CDSMP and TCDS when translated to community settings. In addition, little is known about the correlation between demographic, baseline health status, and psychosocial factors and completion of either CDSMP or TCDS. This study used secondary data collected by agencies of the Healthy Aging Regional Collaborative from 10/01/2008–12/31/2010. The aims of this study were to examine six week differences in self-efficacy, time spent performing physical activity, and social/role activity limitations, and to identify correlates of program completion using baseline demographic and psychosocial factors. To examine if differences existed a general linear model was used. Additionally, logistic regression was used to examine correlates of program completion. Study findings show that all measures showed improvement at week six. For CDSMP, self-efficacy to manage disease (p = .001), self-efficacy to manage emotions (p = .026), social/role activities limitations (p = .001), and time spent walking (p = .008) were statistically significant. For TCDS, self-efficacy to manage disease (p = .006), social/role activities limitations (p = .001), and time spent walking (p = .016) and performing other aerobic activity (p = .005) were significant. For CDSMP, no correlates predicting program completion were found to be significant. For TCDS, participants who were male (OR=2.3, 95%CI: 1.15–4.66), from Broward County (OR=2.3, 95%CI: 1.27–4.25), or living alone (OR=2.0, 95%CI: 1.29-–3.08) were more likely to complete the program. CDSMP and TCDS, when implemented through a collaborative effort, can result in improvements for participants. Effective chronic disease management can improve health, quality of life, and reduce health care expenditures among older adults.

Online Education, Accrediting Standards, and Student Success: An Examination of the Relationship Between the Southern Association of Colleges and Schools Commission on Colleges Standards for Online Education and Student Success

Prior to 2000, there were less than 1.6 million students enrolled in at least one online course. By fall 2010, student enrollment in online distance education showed a phenomenal 283% increase to 6.1 million. Two years later, this number had grown to 7.1 million. In light of this significant growth and skepticism about quality, there have been calls for greater oversight of this format of educational delivery. Accrediting bodies tasked with this oversight have developed guidelines and standards for online education. There is a lack of empirical studies that examine the relationship between accrediting standards and student success. The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between the presence of Southern Association of Colleges and Schools Commission on College (SACSCOC) standards for online education in online courses, (a) student support services and (b) curriculum and instruction, and student success. An original 24-item survey with an overall reliability coefficient of .94 was administered to students (N=464) at Florida International University, enrolled in 24 university-wide undergraduate online courses during fall 2014, who rated the presence of these standards in their online courses. The general linear model was utilized to analyze the data. The results of the study indicated that the two standards, student support services and curriculum and instruction were both significantly and positively correlated with student success but with small R2 and strengths of association less than .35 and .20 respectively. Mixed results were produced from Chi-square tests for differences in student success between higher and lower rated online courses when controlling for various covariates such as discipline, gender, race/ethnicity, GPA, age, and number of online courses previously taken. A multiple linear regression analysis revealed that the curriculum and instruction standard was the only variable that accounted for a significant amount of unique variance in student success. Another regression test revealed that no significant interaction effect exists between the two SACSCOC standards and GPA in predicting student success. The results of this study are useful for administrators, faculty, and researchers who are interested in accreditation standards for online education and how these standards relate to student success.

Essays in Open Economy Macroeconomics

Research macroeconomists have witnessed remarkable methodological developments in mathematical, statistical, and computational tools during the last two decades. The three essays in this dissertation took advantage of these advances to analyze important macroeconomic issues. The first essay, “ Habit Formation, Adjustments Costs, and International Business Cycle Puzzles” analyzes the extent to which incorporating habit formation and adjustment costs in investment in a one-good two-country general equilibrium model would help overcome some of the international business cycle puzzles. Unlike standard results in the literature, the model generates persistent, cyclical adjustment paths in response to shocks. It also yields positive cross-country correlations in consumption, employment, investment, and output. Cross-country correlations in output are higher than the ones in consumption. This is qualitatively consistent with the stylized facts. These results are particularly striking given the predicted negative correlations in investment, employment, and output that are typically found in the literature. The second essay, “Comparison Utility, Endogenous Time Preference, and Economic Growth,” uses World War II as a natural experiment to analyze the degree to which a model where consumers' preferences exhibit comparison-based utility and endogenous discounting is able to improve upon existing models in mimicking the transitional dynamics of an economy after a shock that destroys part of its capital stock. The model outperforms existing ones in replicating the behavior of the saving rate (both on impact and along the transient paths) after this historical event. This result brings additional support to the endogenous rate of time preference being a crucial element in growth models. The last essay, “Monetary Policy under Fear of Floating: Modeling the Dominican Economy,” presents a small scale macroeconomic model for a country (Dominican Republic) characterized by a strong presence of fear of floating (reluctance to have a flexible exchange rate regime) in the conduct of monetary policy. The dynamic responses of this economy to external shocks that are of interest for monetary policy purposes are analyzed under two alternative interest rate policy rules: One being the standard Taylor rule and another that responds explicitly to deviations of the exchange rate with respect to its long-term trend.

Gasto com a internação de idosos em unidades de terapia intensiva

Introduction: Population aging in Brazil underscores the need to discuss the proper management of the budget allocated in health field, especially in the sectors of high complexity, where coexist costly procedures, limited resources and the need for cost containment. In the other hand, demand is growing in a way directly proportional to the increase in the number of elderly in country. Objective: In this way, this research had as main objective to analyze the costs resulting from the admission of elderly in intensive care units (ICU) and its associated factors. Methods: This is a cross-sectional study with a quantitative approach and featured as a descriptive and exploratory research. Data were collected from medical records of elderly hospitalized in ICU from a brazilian city called Natal-RN, between november first, 2013 and january, 31 of 2014. The variables collected relate to the socio demographic profile, morbidity framework and characterization of hospitalization. The dependent variable was categorized by quartile 75 in high and low expense of hospitalization and submitted to chi-square test with the independent variables of the survey. Associations with p value <0.20 in the bivariate analysis were submitted to the technique of multiple logistic regression. We opted for the construction of three regression models from the above algorithm: general regression model, composed by all 493 hospitalizations in the study, other made with 181 individuals admitted in health public system (SUS) and a third one related to 312 cases from private service in health area. Results: In the general regression model, the variables respiratory diseases, hospitalizations in the private system, disoriented patient and previous stroke were associated with greater probability of high spending in the ICU. In the other hand, in SUS kind of hospitalizations, this probability was associated with disoriented patient, 80 years old or more, sepsis and admission for clinical reason. In the cases from the private network health, the high expenditure was associated with respiratory disease, mechanical ventilation, hospitalization for clinical reason and disoriented patients. Conclusion: The increased expenditure on hospitalization of elderly in intensive care depends on the clinical conditions of individuals. This highlights the importance of avoiding hospitalizations due to diseases sensitive to primary care by health preventive actions and providing comprehensive care to the elderly. In addition, obtaining different explanatory models, according to kind hospital funding, demonstrates the importance of the organization in health services related to composition of costs of hospitalization among the elderly. Another question founded was the need that to improve the funding, we must use rationally the available resources by avoiding unnecessary hospitalizations of elderly people in the extremes of severity. On this kind of precarious funding, ICU hospitalization of elderly non-critical or in a terminal state can compromise the quality of services provided to those who really need intensive care.

The issue of macroeconomic closure revisited and extended

Léon Walras (1874) already had realized that his neo-classical general equilibrium model could not accommodate autonomous investment. Sen analysed the same issue in a simple, one-sector macroeconomic model of a closed economy. He showed that fixing investment in the model, built strictly on neo-classical assumptions, would make the system overdetermined, thus, one should loosen some neo-classical condition of competitive equilibrium. He analysed three not neo-classical “closure options”, which could make the model well determined in the case of fixed investment. Others later extended his list and it showed that the closure dilemma arises in the more complex computable general equilibrium (CGE) models as well, as does the choice of adjustment mechanism assumed to bring about equilibrium at the macro level. By means of numerical models, it was also illustrated that the adopted closure rule can significantly affect the results of policy simulations based on a CGE model. Despite these warnings, the issue of macro closure is often neglected in policy simulations. It is, therefore, worth revisiting the issue and demonstrating by further examples its importance, as well as pointing out that the closure problem in the CGE models extends well beyond the problem of how to incorporate autonomous investment into a CGE model. Several closure rules are discussed in this paper and their diverse outcomes are illustrated by numerical models calibrated on statistical data. First, the analyses is done in a one-sector model, similar to Sen’s, but extended into a model of an open economy. Next, the same analyses are repeated using a fully-fledged multisectoral CGE model, calibrated on the same statistical data. Comparing the results obtained by the two models it is shown that although, using the same closure option, they generate quite similar results in terms of the direction and – to a somewhat lesser extent – of the magnitude of change in the main macro variables, the predictions of the multi-sectoral CGE model are clearly more realistic and balanced.

Sea-surface temperature and sea ice distribution of the Southern Ocean at the EPILOG Last Glacial Maximum

Based on the quantitative study of diatoms and radiolarians, summer sea-surface temperature (SSST) and sea ice distribution were estimated from 122 sediment core localities in the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific sectors of the Southern Ocean to reconstruct the last glacial environment at the EPILOG (19.5-16.0 ka or 23 000-19 000 cal yr. B.P.) time-slice. The statistical methods applied include the Imbrie and Kipp Method, the Modern Analog Technique and the General Additive Model. Summer SSTs reveal greater surface-water cooling than reconstructed by CLIMAP (Geol. Soc. Am. Map Chart. Ser. MC-36 (1981) 1), reaching a maximum (4-5 °C) in the present Subantarctic Zone of the Atlantic and Indian sector. The reconstruction of maximum winter sea ice (WSI) extent is in accordance with CLIMAP, showing an expansion of the WSI field by around 100% compared to the present. Although only limited information is available, the data clearly show that CLIMAP strongly overestimated the glacial summer sea ice extent. As a result of the northward expansion of Antarctic cold waters by 5-10° in latitude and a relatively small displacement of the Subtropical Front, thermal gradients were steepened during the last glacial in the northern zone of the Southern Ocean. Such reconstruction may, however, be inapposite for the Pacific sector. The few data available indicate reduced cooling in the southern Pacific and give suggestion for a non-uniform cooling of the glacial Southern Ocean.

Efeito da geometria do implante dentário e do protocolo de fresagem óssea na estabilidade primária e na osseointegração inicial: estudo experimental em cães

CHAPTER 1 - This study histologically evaluated two implant designs: a classic thread design versus another specifically designed for healing chamber formation placed with two drilling protocols. Forty dental implants (4.1 mm diameter) with two different macrogeometries were inserted in the tibia of 10 Beagle dogs, and maximum insertion torque was recorded. Drilling techniques were: until 3.75 mm (regular-group); and until 4.0 mm diameter (overdrillinggroup) for both implant designs. At 2 and 4 weeks, samples were retrieved and processed for histomorphometric analysis. For torque and BIC (bone-to-implant contact) and BAFO (bone area fraction occupied), a general-linear model was employed including instrumentation technique and time in vivo as independent. The insertion torque recorded for each implant design and drilling group significantly decreased as a function of increasing drilling diameter for both implant designs (p<0.001). No significant differences were detected between implant designs for each drilling technique (p>0.18). A significant increase in BIC was observed from 2 to 4 weeks for both implants placed with the overdrilling technique (p<0.03) only, but not for those placed in the 3.75 mm drilling sites (p>0.32). Despite the differences between implant designs and drilling technique an intramembranous-like healing mode with newly formed woven bone prevailed. CHAPTER 2 - The objective of this preliminary histologic study was to determine whether the alteration of drilling protocols (oversized, intermediate, undersized drilling) present different biologic responses at early healing periods of 2 weeks in vivo in a beagle dog model. Ten beagle dogs were acquired and subjected to surgeries in the tibia 2 weeks before euthanasia. During surgery, 3 implants, 4 mm in diameter by 10 mm in length, were placed in bone sites drilled to 3.5 mm, 3.75 mm, and 4.0 mm in final diameter. The insertion and removal torque was recorded for all samples. Statistical significance was set to 95% level of confidence and the number of dogs was considered as the statistical unit for all comparisons. For the torque and BIC and BAFO, a general linear model was employed including instrumentation technique and time in vivo as independent. Overall, the insertion torque increased as a function of drilling diameter from 4.0 mm, to 3.75 mm, to 3.5 mm, with a significant difference in torque levels between all groups (p<0.001). Statistical assessment of BIC and BAFO showed significantly higher values for the 3.75 mm (recommended) drilling group was observed relative to the other two groups (p<0.001). Different drilling dimensions resulted in variations in insertion torque values (primary stability) and different pattern of healing and interfacial remodeling was observed for the different groups. CHAPTER 3 - The present study evaluated the effect of different drilling dimensions (undersized, regular, and oversized) in the insertion and removal torques of dental implants in a beagle dog model. Six beagle dogs were acquired and subjected to bilateral surgeries in the radii 1 and 3 weeks before euthanasia. During surgery, 3 implants, 4 mm in diameter by 10 mm in length, were placed in bone sites drilled to 3.2 mm, 3.5 mm, and 3.8 mm in final diameter. The insertion and removal torque was recorded for all samples. Statistical analysis was performed by paired t tests for repeated measures and by t tests assuming unequal variances (all at the 95% level of significance). Overall, the insertion torque and removal torque levels obtained were inversely proportional to the drilling dimension, with a significant difference detected between the 3.2 mm and 3.5 mm relative to the 3.8 mm groups (P < 0.03). Although insertion torque–removal torque paired observations was statis- tically maintained for the 3.5 mm and 3.8 mm groups, a significant decrease in removal torque values relative to insertion torque levels was observed for the 3.2 mm group. A different pattern of healing and interfacial remodeling was observed for the different groups. Different drilling dimensions resulted in variations in insertion torque values (primary stability) and stability maintenance over the first weeks of bone healing.

Pupillary behavior in relation to wavelength and age

Pupil light reflex can be used as a non-invasive ocular predictor of cephalic autonomic nervous system integrity. Spectral sensitivity of the pupil's response to light has, for some time, been an interesting issue. It has generally, however, only been investigated with the use of white light and studies with monochromatic wavelengths are scarce. This study investigates the effects of wavelength and age within three parameters of the pupil light reflex (amplitude of response, latency, and velocity of constriction) in a large sample of younger and older adults (N = 97), in mesopic conditions. Subjects were exposed to a single light stimulus at four different wavelengths: white (5600° K), blue (450 nm), green (510 nm), and red (600 nm). Data was analyzed appropriately, and, when applicable, using the General Linear Model (GLM), Randomized Complete Block Design (RCBD), Student's t-test and/or ANCOVA. Across all subjects, pupillary response to light had the greatest amplitude and shortest latency in white and green light conditions. In regards to age, older subjects (46-78 years) showed an increased latency in white light and decreased velocity of constriction in green light compared to younger subjects (18-45 years old). This study provides data patterns on parameters of wavelength-dependent pupil reflexes to light in adults and it contributes to the large body of pupillometric research. It is hoped that this study will add to the overall evaluation of cephalic autonomic nervous system integrity.

Avaliação comparativa da remodelação óssea periimplantar em implantes com junção cone-morse e hexágono externo: estudo clínico randomizado controlado, duplo cego, boca dividida

Background: Several theories, such as the biological width formation, the inflammatory reactions due to the implant-abutment microgap contamination, and the periimplant stress/strain concentration causing bone microdamage accumulation, have been suggested to explain early periimplant bone loss. However, it is yet not well understood to which extent the implant-abutment connection type may influence the remodeling process around dental implants. Aim: to evaluate clinical, bacteriological, and biomechanical parameters related to periimplant bone loss at the crestal region, comparing external hexagon (EH) and Morse-taper (MT) connections. Materials and methods: Twelve patients with totally edentulous mandibles received four custom made Ø 3.8 x 13 mm implants in the interforaminal region of the mandible, with the same design, but different prosthetic connections (two of them EH or MT, randomly placed based on a split-mouth design), and a immediate implant- supported prosthesis. Clinical parameters (periimplant probing pocket depth, modified gingival index and mucosal thickness) were evaluated at 6 sites around the implants, at a 12 month follow-up. The distance from the top of the implant to the first bone-to-implant contact – IT-FBIC was evaluated on standardized digital peri-apical radiographs acquired at 1, 3, 6 and 12 months follow-up. Samples of the subgingival microbiota were collected 1, 3 and 6 months after implant loading. DNA were extracted and used for the quantification of Tanerella forsythia, Porphyromonas gingivalis, Aggragatibacter actinomycetemcomitans, Prevotella intermedia and Fusobacterium nucleatum. Comparison among multiple periods of observation were performed using repeated-measures Analysis of Variance (ANOVA), followed by a Tukey post-hoc test, while two-period based comparisons were made using paired t- test. Further, 36 computer-tomographic based finite element (FE) models were accomplished, simulating each patient in 3 loading conditions. The results for the peak EQV strain in periimplant bone were interpreted by means of a general linear model (ANOVA). Results: The variation in periimplant bone loss assessed by means of radiographs was significantly different between the connection types (P<0.001). Mean IT-FBIC was 1.17±0.44 mm for EH, and 0.17±0.54 mm for MT, considering all evaluated time periods. All clinical parameters presented not significant differences. No significant microbiological differences could be observed between both connection types. Most of the collected samples had very few pathogens, meaning that these regions were healthy from a microbiological point of view. In FE analysis, a significantly higher peak of EQV strain (P=0.005) was found for EH (mean 3438.65 µ∑) compared to MT (mean 840.98 µ∑) connection. Conclusions: Varying implant-abutment connection type will result in diverse periimplant bone remodeling, regardless of clinical and microbiological conditions. This fact is more likely attributed to the singular loading transmission through different implant-abutment connections to the periimplant bone. The present findings suggest that Morse-taper connection is more efficient to prevent periimplant bone loss, compared to an external hexagon connection.

Three Essays on Taxation, Growth and Consumption

The purpose of this dissertation is to examine three distributional issues in macroeconomics. First I explore the effects fiscal federalism on economic growth across regions in China. Using the comprehensive official data set of China for 31 regions from 1952 until 1999, I investigate a number of indicators used by the literature to measure federalism and find robust support for only one such measure: the ratio of local total revenue to local tax revenue. Using a difference-in-difference approach and exploiting the two-year gap in the implementation of a tax reform across different regions of China, I also identify a positive relationship between fiscal federalism and regional economic growth. The second paper hypothesizes that an inequitable distribution of income negatively affects the rule of law in resource-rich economies and provides robust evidence in support of this hypothesis. By investigating a data set that contains 193 countries and using econometric methodologies such as the fixed effects estimator and the generalized method of moments estimator, I find that resource-abundance improves the quality of institutions, as long as income and wealth disparity remains below a certain threshold. When inequality moves beyond this threshold, the positive effects of the resource-abundance level on institutions diminish quickly and turn negative eventually. This paper, thus, provides robust evidence about the endogeneity of institutions and the role income and wealth inequality plays in the determination of long-run growth rates. The third paper sets up a dynamic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents to investigate the causal channels which run from a concern for international status to long-run economic growth. The simulation results show that the initial distribution of income and wealth play an important role in whether agents gain or lose from globalization.

Bomb-tritium input function calculated from the details of the nuclear atmospheric bomb tests released by the UNSCEAR [2000]

Improving the representation of the hydrological cycle in Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCMs) is one of the main challenges in modeling the Earth's climate system. One way to evaluate model performance is to simulate the transport of water isotopes. Among those available, tritium (HTO) is an extremely valuable tracer, because its content in the different reservoirs involved in the water cycle (stratosphere, troposphere, ocean) varies by order of magnitude. Previous work incorporated natural tritium into LMDZ-iso, a version of the LMDZ general circulation model enhanced by water isotope diagnostics. Here for the first time, the anthropogenic tritium injected by each of the atmospheric nuclear-bomb tests between 1945 and 1980 has been first estimated and further implemented in the model; it creates an opportunity to evaluate certain aspects of LDMZ over several decades by following the bomb-tritium transient signal through the hydrological cycle. Simulations of tritium in water vapor and precipitation for the period 1950-2008, with both natural and anthropogenic components, are presented in this study. LMDZ-iso satisfactorily reproduces the general shape of the temporal evolution of tritium. However, LMDZ-iso simulates too high a bomb-tritium peak followed by too strong a decrease of tritium in precipitation. The too diffusive vertical advection in AGCMs crucially affects the residence time of tritium in the stratosphere. This insight into model performance demonstrates that the implementation of tritium in an AGCM provides a new and valuable test of the modeled atmospheric transport, complementing water stable isotope modeling.