SESAM - a new framework integrating macroecological and species distribution models for predicting spatio-temporal patterns of species assemblages

Two different approaches currently prevail for predicting spatial patterns of species assemblages. The first approach (macroecological modelling, MEM) focuses directly on realised properties of species assemblages, whereas the second approach (stacked species distribution modelling, S-SDM) starts with constituent species to approximate assemblage properties. Here, we propose to unify the two approaches in a single 'spatially-explicit species assemblage modelling' (SESAM) framework. This framework uses relevant species source pool designations, macroecological factors, and ecological assembly rules to constrain predictions of the richness and composition of species assemblages obtained by stacking predictions of individual species distributions. We believe that such a framework could prove useful in many theoretical and applied disciplines of ecology and evolution, both for improving our basic understanding of species assembly across spatio-temporal scales and for anticipating expected consequences of local, regional or global environmental changes. In this paper, we propose such a framework and call for further developments and testing across a broad range of community types in a variety of environments.

Are patterns of bone loss in anorexic and postmenopausal women similar? Preliminary results using high resolution peripheral computed tomography.

This study intended to compare bone density and architecture in three groups of women: young women with anorexia nervosa (AN), an age-matched control group of young women, and healthy late postmenopausal women. Three-dimensional peripheral quantitative high resolution computed-tomography (HR-pQCT) at the ultradistal radius, a technology providing measures of cortical and trabecular bone density and microarchitecture, was performed in the three cohorts. Thirty-six women with AN aged 18-30years (mean duration of AN: 5.8years), 83 healthy late postmenopausal women aged 70-81 as well as 30 age-matched healthy young women were assessed. The overall cortical and trabecular bone density (D100), the absolute thickness of the cortical bone (CTh), and the absolute number of trabecules per area (TbN) were significantly lower in AN patients compared with healthy young women. The absolute number of trabecules per area (TbN) in AN and postmenopausal women was similar, but significantly lower than in healthy young women. The comparison between AN patients and post-menopausal women is of interest because the latter reach bone peak mass around the middle of the fertile age span whereas the former usually lose bone before reaching optimal bone density and structure. This study shows that bone mineral density and bone compacta thickness in AN are lower than those in controls but still higher than those in postmenopause. Bone compacta density in AN is similar as in controls. However, bone inner structure in AN is degraded to a similar extent as in postmenopause. This last finding is particularly troubling.

Temporal patterns of nucleotide misincorporations and DNA fragmentation in ancient DNA.

DNA that survives in museum specimens, bones and other tissues recovered by archaeologists is invariably fragmented and chemically modified. The extent to which such modifications accumulate over time is largely unknown but could potentially be used to differentiate between endogenous old DNA and present-day DNA contaminating specimens and experiments. Here we examine mitochondrial DNA sequences from tissue remains that vary in age between 18 and 60,000 years with respect to three molecular features: fragment length, base composition at strand breaks, and apparent C to T substitutions. We find that fragment length does not decrease consistently over time and that strand breaks occur preferentially before purine residues by what may be at least two different molecular mechanisms that are not yet understood. In contrast, the frequency of apparent C to T substitutions towards the 5'-ends of molecules tends to increase over time. These nucleotide misincorporations are thus a useful tool to distinguish recent from ancient DNA sources in specimens that have not been subjected to unusual or harsh treatments.

What do women do? World population growth and fertility patterns, 1960-2000

In this paper we attempt to describe the general picture reasons behind the world population explosion during the 20th century. In general we comment that if, according to some, at the end of the 20th century there were too many people, this was has a consequence of scientific innovation, circulation of information, and economic growth, leading to a dramatic improvement in life expectancies. Nevertheless, a crucial variable shaping differences in demographic growth is fertility. In this paper we identify as important exogenous variables affecting fertility female education levels, infant mortality, and racial identity and diversity. It is estimated that three additional years of schooling for mothers leads on average (at the world level ) to one child less per couple. Even if we can identify a worldwide trend towards convergence in demographic trends, the African case needs to be given more attention, not only because of its different demographic patterns, but also because this is the continent where the worldwide movement towards a higher quality of life has not yet been achieved for an important share of the world's population.

Labour Market Formation Patterns in Nineteenth Century Catalonia

In this paper we portray the features of the Catalan textiles labour market in a period of technological change. Supply and demand for labour as well as a gendered view of living standards are presented. A first set of results is that labour supply adjusts to changes in labour demand trough the spread of new demographic attitudes. In this respect we imply that labour economic agents (or labour population) were able to modify the economic condition of their children. A second set of results refers to living standards and income distribution inequality. In this respect we see that unemployment and protectionism were the main sources breeding income inequality. A third set of results deals with the extreme labour market segmentation according to gender. Since women s real wages did not obey to an economic rationale we conclude that women were outside the labour market.

Evolutionary games on complex networks : the emergence and maintenance of cooperation

Abstract The object of game theory lies in the analysis of situations where different social actors have conflicting requirements and where their individual decisions will all influence the global outcome. In this framework, several games have been invented to capture the essence of various dilemmas encountered in many common important socio-economic situations. Even though these games often succeed in helping us understand human or animal behavior in interactive settings, some experiments have shown that people tend to cooperate with each other in situations for which classical game theory strongly recommends them to do the exact opposite. Several mechanisms have been invoked to try to explain the emergence of this unexpected cooperative attitude. Among them, repeated interaction, reputation, and belonging to a recognizable group have often been mentioned. However, the work of Nowak and May (1992) showed that the simple fact of arranging the players according to a spatial structure and only allowing them to interact with their immediate neighbors is sufficient to sustain a certain amount of cooperation even when the game is played anonymously and without repetition. Nowak and May's study and much of the following work was based on regular structures such as two-dimensional grids. Axelrod et al. (2002) showed that by randomizing the choice of neighbors, i.e. by actually giving up a strictly local geographical structure, cooperation can still emerge, provided that the interaction patterns remain stable in time. This is a first step towards a social network structure. However, following pioneering work by sociologists in the sixties such as that of Milgram (1967), in the last few years it has become apparent that many social and biological interaction networks, and even some technological networks, have particular, and partly unexpected, properties that set them apart from regular or random graphs. Among other things, they usually display broad degree distributions, and show small-world topological structure. Roughly speaking, a small-world graph is a network where any individual is relatively close, in terms of social ties, to any other individual, a property also found in random graphs but not in regular lattices. However, in contrast with random graphs, small-world networks also have a certain amount of local structure, as measured, for instance, by a quantity called the clustering coefficient. In the same vein, many real conflicting situations in economy and sociology are not well described neither by a fixed geographical position of the individuals in a regular lattice, nor by a random graph. Furthermore, it is a known fact that network structure can highly influence dynamical phenomena such as the way diseases spread across a population and ideas or information get transmitted. Therefore, in the last decade, research attention has naturally shifted from random and regular graphs towards better models of social interaction structures. The primary goal of this work is to discover whether or not the underlying graph structure of real social networks could give explanations as to why one finds higher levels of cooperation in populations of human beings or animals than what is prescribed by classical game theory. To meet this objective, I start by thoroughly studying a real scientific coauthorship network and showing how it differs from biological or technological networks using divers statistical measurements. Furthermore, I extract and describe its community structure taking into account the intensity of a collaboration. Finally, I investigate the temporal evolution of the network, from its inception to its state at the time of the study in 2006, suggesting also an effective view of it as opposed to a historical one. Thereafter, I combine evolutionary game theory with several network models along with the studied coauthorship network in order to highlight which specific network properties foster cooperation and shed some light on the various mechanisms responsible for the maintenance of this same cooperation. I point out the fact that, to resist defection, cooperators take advantage, whenever possible, of the degree-heterogeneity of social networks and their underlying community structure. Finally, I show that cooperation level and stability depend not only on the game played, but also on the evolutionary dynamic rules used and the individual payoff calculations. Synopsis Le but de la théorie des jeux réside dans l'analyse de situations dans lesquelles différents acteurs sociaux, avec des objectifs souvent conflictuels, doivent individuellement prendre des décisions qui influenceront toutes le résultat global. Dans ce cadre, plusieurs jeux ont été inventés afin de saisir l'essence de divers dilemmes rencontrés dans d'importantes situations socio-économiques. Bien que ces jeux nous permettent souvent de comprendre le comportement d'êtres humains ou d'animaux en interactions, des expériences ont montré que les individus ont parfois tendance à coopérer dans des situations pour lesquelles la théorie classique des jeux prescrit de faire le contraire. Plusieurs mécanismes ont été invoqués pour tenter d'expliquer l'émergence de ce comportement coopératif inattendu. Parmi ceux-ci, la répétition des interactions, la réputation ou encore l'appartenance à des groupes reconnaissables ont souvent été mentionnés. Toutefois, les travaux de Nowak et May (1992) ont montré que le simple fait de disposer les joueurs selon une structure spatiale en leur permettant d'interagir uniquement avec leurs voisins directs est suffisant pour maintenir un certain niveau de coopération même si le jeu est joué de manière anonyme et sans répétitions. L'étude de Nowak et May, ainsi qu'un nombre substantiel de travaux qui ont suivi, étaient basés sur des structures régulières telles que des grilles à deux dimensions. Axelrod et al. (2002) ont montré qu'en randomisant le choix des voisins, i.e. en abandonnant une localisation géographique stricte, la coopération peut malgré tout émerger, pour autant que les schémas d'interactions restent stables au cours du temps. Ceci est un premier pas en direction d'une structure de réseau social. Toutefois, suite aux travaux précurseurs de sociologues des années soixante, tels que ceux de Milgram (1967), il est devenu clair ces dernières années qu'une grande partie des réseaux d'interactions sociaux et biologiques, et même quelques réseaux technologiques, possèdent des propriétés particulières, et partiellement inattendues, qui les distinguent de graphes réguliers ou aléatoires. Entre autres, ils affichent en général une distribution du degré relativement large ainsi qu'une structure de "petit-monde". Grossièrement parlant, un graphe "petit-monde" est un réseau où tout individu se trouve relativement près de tout autre individu en termes de distance sociale, une propriété également présente dans les graphes aléatoires mais absente des grilles régulières. Par contre, les réseaux "petit-monde" ont, contrairement aux graphes aléatoires, une certaine structure de localité, mesurée par exemple par une quantité appelée le "coefficient de clustering". Dans le même esprit, plusieurs situations réelles de conflit en économie et sociologie ne sont pas bien décrites ni par des positions géographiquement fixes des individus en grilles régulières, ni par des graphes aléatoires. De plus, il est bien connu que la structure même d'un réseau peut passablement influencer des phénomènes dynamiques tels que la manière qu'a une maladie de se répandre à travers une population, ou encore la façon dont des idées ou une information s'y propagent. Ainsi, durant cette dernière décennie, l'attention de la recherche s'est tout naturellement déplacée des graphes aléatoires et réguliers vers de meilleurs modèles de structure d'interactions sociales. L'objectif principal de ce travail est de découvrir si la structure sous-jacente de graphe de vrais réseaux sociaux peut fournir des explications quant aux raisons pour lesquelles on trouve, chez certains groupes d'êtres humains ou d'animaux, des niveaux de coopération supérieurs à ce qui est prescrit par la théorie classique des jeux. Dans l'optique d'atteindre ce but, je commence par étudier un véritable réseau de collaborations scientifiques et, en utilisant diverses mesures statistiques, je mets en évidence la manière dont il diffère de réseaux biologiques ou technologiques. De plus, j'extrais et je décris sa structure de communautés en tenant compte de l'intensité d'une collaboration. Finalement, j'examine l'évolution temporelle du réseau depuis son origine jusqu'à son état en 2006, date à laquelle l'étude a été effectuée, en suggérant également une vue effective du réseau par opposition à une vue historique. Par la suite, je combine la théorie évolutionnaire des jeux avec des réseaux comprenant plusieurs modèles et le réseau de collaboration susmentionné, afin de déterminer les propriétés structurelles utiles à la promotion de la coopération et les mécanismes responsables du maintien de celle-ci. Je mets en évidence le fait que, pour ne pas succomber à la défection, les coopérateurs exploitent dans la mesure du possible l'hétérogénéité des réseaux sociaux en termes de degré ainsi que la structure de communautés sous-jacente de ces mêmes réseaux. Finalement, je montre que le niveau de coopération et sa stabilité dépendent non seulement du jeu joué, mais aussi des règles de la dynamique évolutionnaire utilisées et du calcul du bénéfice d'un individu.

Patterns of alcohol use and related issues: analysis of nurses' knowledge


Descriptive study that aimed to identify and compare the nurses’ knowledge addressed to patterns of alcohol use and related issues. The study included 185 nurses of which 84 had attended a training course on the subject. Data were collected through a questionnaire of knowledge showing that while the trained group obtained the highest average on correct answers, there was a lack of knowledge in both groups, especially with regard to the identification of complications from alcohol use. Important definitions to nursing practice in the area of addictions are presented, suggesting that future training may consider the various dimensions involved in caring for people with problems related to alcohol.


Optable : The operation table serious game

Aquest treball consisteix en la realització d'un estudi al voltant dels anomenats serious games, jocs destinats a l'aprenentatge. Concretament, el projecte es centra en els serious games d'àmbit sanitari. A més d'un estudi de l'art, el treball consta del desenvolupament d'un serious game anomenat Optable per a la pràctica de la preparació del material quirúrgic d'una taula d'operacions. Aquesta aplicació ha estat desenvolupada sota llicència GNU GPL.

The art and learning patterns of knowing in nursing

Objective To identify the perception of the students about the use of art as a pedagogical strategy in learning the patterns of knowing in nursing; to identify the dimensions of each pattern valued in the analysis of pieces of art. Method Descriptive mixed study. Data collection used a questionnaire applied to 31 nursing students. Results In the analysis of the students’ discourse, it was explicit that empirical knowledge includes scientific knowledge, tradition and nature of care. The aesthetic knowledge implies expressiveness, subjectivity and sensitivity. Self-knowledge, experience, reflective attitude and relationships with others are the subcategories of personal knowledge and the moral and ethics support ethical knowledge. Conclusion It is possible to learn patterns of knowledge through art, especially the aesthetic, ethical and personal. It is necessary to investigate further pedagogical strategies that contribute to the learning patterns of nursing knowledge.

Characterization of modern and fossil mineral dust transported to high altitude in the Western Alps: Saharan sources and transport patterns

Mineral dust aerosols recently collected at the high-altitude Jungfraujoch research station (46 degrees 33'51 `' N, 7 degrees 59'06 `' E; 3580 m a.s.l.) were compared to mineral dust deposited at the Colle Gnifetti glacier (45 degrees 52'50 `' N, 7 degrees 52'33 `' E; 4455 m a.s.l.) over the last millennium. Radiogenic isotope signatures and backward trajectories analyses indicate that major dust sources are situated in the north-central to north-western part of the Saharan desert. Less radiogenic Sr isotopic compositions of PM10 aerosols and of mineral particles deposited during periods of low dust transfer likely result from the enhancement of the background chemically-weathered Saharan source. Saharan dust mobilization and transport were relatively reduced during the second part of the Little Ice Age (ca. 1690-1870) except within the greatest Saharan dust event deposited around 1770. After ca. 1870, sustained dust deposition suggests that increased mineral dust transport over the Alps during the last century could be due to stronger spring/summer North Atlantic southwesterlies and drier winters in North Africa. On the other hand, increasing carbonaceous particle emissions from fossil fuel combustion combined to a higher lead enrichment factor point to concomitant anthropogenic sources of particulate pollutants reaching high-altitude European glaciers during the last century.

Aging effects on selective attention-related electroencephalographic patterns during face encoding.

Previous electrophysiological studies revealed that human faces elicit an early visual event-related potential (ERP) within the occipito-temporal cortex, the N170 component. Although face perception has been proposed to rely on automatic processing, the impact of selective attention on N170 remains controversial both in young and elderly individuals. Using early visual ERP and alpha power analysis, we assessed the influence of aging on selective attention to faces during delayed-recognition tasks for face and letter stimuli, examining 36 elderly and 20 young adults with preserved cognition. Face recognition performance worsened with age. Aging induced a latency delay of the N1 component for faces and letters, as well as of the face N170 component. Contrasting with letters, ignored faces elicited larger N1 and N170 components than attended faces in both age groups. This counterintuitive attention effect on face processing persisted when scenes replaced letters. In contrast with young, elderly subjects failed to suppress irrelevant letters when attending faces. Whereas attended stimuli induced a parietal alpha band desynchronization within 300-1000 ms post-stimulus with bilateral-to-right distribution for faces and left lateralization for letters, ignored and passively viewed stimuli elicited a central alpha synchronization larger on the right hemisphere. Aging delayed the latency of this alpha synchronization for both face and letter stimuli, and reduced its amplitude for ignored letters. These results suggest that due to their social relevance, human faces may cause paradoxical attention effects on early visual ERP components, but they still undergo classical top-down control as a function of endogenous selective attention. Aging does not affect the face bottom-up alerting mechanism but reduces the top-down suppression of distracting letters, possibly impinging upon face recognition, and more generally delays the top-down suppression of task-irrelevant information.

Phenotypic variability of retinocytomas: preregression and postregression growth patterns.

AIM: To describe the incidence of retinocytomas, their variability at presentation and their growth patterns both before and after regression.¦METHODS: Medical notes of the 525 patients of the Jules-Gonin Eye Hospital Retinoblastoma Clinic between 1964 and 2008 were reviewed and the charts of 36 patients with retinocytomas and/or phthisis bulbi were selected.¦RESULTS: The proportion of patients with retinocytomas and/or phthisis bulbi was 3.2%. The mean age at diagnosis was 28.7±17 years. Five tumours presented a cystic pattern (5.8%). Evidence of aggressive exophytic disease prior to spontaneous regression was documented in two eyes, and of invasive endophytic disease (regressed vitreous seeding or internal limiting membrane disruption) in three eyes. Twenty patients were followed with a mean follow-up of 44±60 months. Tumour growth was observed in 16% cases, benign cystic enlargement in 4% and malignant transformation in 12%.¦CONCLUSION: This large study of retinocytomas substantially expands the published features of retinocytoma by describing the cystic nature of some retinocytomas as well as clinical characteristics of the endophytic and exophytic preregression growth patterns. The authors report two different patterns of reactivation: benign cystic enlargement and malignant transformation with or without cystic growth. Higher than previously reported frequency of growth and possible life-threatening complications impose close lifetime follow-up of retinocytoma patients.

Rivers Regional Patterns in Historic Data

A report produced by the Department of Natural Resources on the historical pattern the rivers take.

The customer valuations game as a basis for revenue management

I describe the customer valuations game, a simple intuitive game that can serve as a foundation for teaching revenue management. The game requires little or no preparation, props or software, takes around two hours (and hence can be finished in one session), and illustrates the formation of classical (airline and hotel) revenue management mechanisms such as advanced purchase discounts, booking limits and fixed multiple prices. I normally use the game as a base to introduce RM and to develop RM forecasting and optimization concepts off it. The game is particularly suited for non-technical audiences.

The credit ratings game

The spectacular failure of top-rated structured finance products has broughtrenewed attention to the conflicts of interest of Credit Rating Agencies (CRAs). We modelboth the CRA conflict of understating credit risk to attract more business, and the issuerconflict of purchasing only the most favorable ratings (issuer shopping), and examine theeffectiveness of a number of proposed regulatory solutions of CRAs. We find that CRAs aremore prone to inflate ratings when there is a larger fraction of naive investors in the marketwho take ratings at face value, or when CRA expected reputation costs are lower. To theextent that in booms the fraction of naive investors is higher, and the reputation risk forCRAs of getting caught understating credit risk is lower, our model predicts that CRAs aremore likely to understate credit risk in booms than in recessions. We also show that, due toissuer shopping, competition among CRAs in a duopoly is less efficient (conditional on thesame equilibrium CRA rating policy) than having a monopoly CRA, in terms of both totalex-ante surplus and investor surplus. Allowing tranching decreases total surplus further.We argue that regulatory intervention requiring upfront payments for rating services (beforeCRAs propose a rating to the issuer) combined with mandatory disclosure of any ratingproduced by CRAs can substantially mitigate the con.icts of interest of both CRAs andissuers.