A comparative review of risk based portfolio allocations: An empirical study throughout rising yields

Since the financial crisis, risk based portfolio allocations have gained a great deal in popularity. This increase in popularity is primarily due to the fact that they make no assumptions as to the expected return of the assets in the portfolio. These portfolios implicitly put risk management at the heart of asset allocation and thus their recent appeal. This paper will serve as a comparison of four well-known risk based portfolio allocation methods; minimum variance, maximum diversification, inverse volatility and equally weighted risk contribution. Empirical backtests will be performed throughout rising interest rate periods from 1953 to 2015. Additionally, I will compare these portfolios to more simple allocation methods, such as equally weighted and a 60/40 asset-allocation mix. This paper will help to answer the question if these portfolios can survive in a rising interest rate environment.

Genetic algorithm for shipping route estimation with long-range tracking data : automatic reconstruction of shipping routes based on the historical ship positions for maritime safety applications

Ship tracking systems allow Maritime Organizations that are concerned with the Safety at Sea to obtain information on the current location and route of merchant vessels. Thanks to Space technology in recent years the geographical coverage of the ship tracking platforms has increased significantly, from radar based near-shore traffic monitoring towards a worldwide picture of the maritime traffic situation. The long-range tracking systems currently in operations allow the storage of ship position data over many years: a valuable source of knowledge about the shipping routes between different ocean regions. The outcome of this Master project is a software prototype for the estimation of the most operated shipping route between any two geographical locations. The analysis is based on the historical ship positions acquired with long-range tracking systems. The proposed approach makes use of a Genetic Algorithm applied on a training set of relevant ship positions extracted from the long-term storage tracking database of the European Maritime Safety Agency (EMSA). The analysis of some representative shipping routes is presented and the quality of the results and their operational applications are assessed by a Maritime Safety expert.

Assessment of NDVI, land surface temperature and precipitation anomalies for drought monitoring in Bayankhongor province, Mongolia

During the last decade Mongolia’s region was characterized by a rapid increase of both severity and frequency of drought events, leading to pasture reduction. Drought monitoring and assessment plays an important role in the region’s early warning systems as a way to mitigate the negative impacts in social, economic and environmental sectors. Nowadays it is possible to access information related to the hydrologic cycle through remote sensing, which provides a continuous monitoring of variables over very large areas where the weather stations are sparse. The present thesis aimed to explore the possibility of using NDVI as a potential drought indicator by studying anomaly patterns and correlations with other two climate variables, LST and precipitation. The study covered the growing season (March to September) of a fifteen year period, between 2000 and 2014, for Bayankhongor province in southwest Mongolia. The datasets used were MODIS NDVI, LST and TRMM Precipitation, which processing and analysis was supported by QGIS software and Python programming language. Monthly anomaly correlations between NDVI-LST and NDVI-Precipitation were generated as well as temporal correlations for the growing season for known drought years (2001, 2002 and 2009). The results show that the three variables follow a seasonal pattern expected for a northern hemisphere region, with occurrence of the rainy season in the summer months. The values of both NDVI and precipitation are remarkably low while LST values are high, which is explained by the region’s climate and ecosystems. The NDVI average, generally, reached higher values with high precipitation values and low LST values. The year of 2001 was the driest year of the time-series, while 2003 was the wet year with healthier vegetation. Monthly correlations registered weak results with low significance, with exception of NDVI-LST and NDVI-Precipitation correlations for June, July and August of 2002. The temporal correlations for the growing season also revealed weak results. The overall relationship between the variables anomalies showed weak correlation results with low significance, which suggests that an accurate answer for predicting drought using the relation between NDVI, LST and Precipitation cannot be given. Additional research should take place in order to achieve more conclusive results. However the NDVI anomaly images show that NDVI is a suitable drought index for Bayankhongor province.

The drought of the century in the Amazon Basin: an analysis of the regional variation of rainfall in South America in 1926

The most severe drought in tropical South America during the 20th century occurred in 1926. This extreme El Nino year is further documented anecdotally, in an update of the river stage observations at Manaus, and in annual rainfall records. The annual rainfall anomaly is an east-west dipole over tropical South America, with drought to the west over the Amazon basin whose discharge is documented at Manaus, and with a surplus to the east and including the Nordeste region of Brazil. Speculations about a role for aerosol in aggravating the drought are discussed.

PEGylated DOTA-AHA-based Gd(III) chelates – A relaxometric study

Three PEGylated derivatives of 1,4,7,10-tetraazacyclododecane-1-((6-amino)hexanoic)-4,7,10-triacetic acid) (DOTA-AHA) with different molecular weights were prepared and characterized. Their Gd(III) chelates were studied in aqueous solution using variable-temperature 1H nuclear magnetic relaxation dispersion (NMRD) and 17ONMR spectroscopy in view of the determination of their relaxivity and the parameters that govern it. The relaxivity varied from 5.1 to 6.5 mM-1.s-1 (37 ºC and 60 MHz) with the increasing molecular weight of the PEG chain, being slightly higher than that of the parent chelate Gd(DOTA-AHA), due to a small contribution of a slow global rotation of the complexes. A variable temperature 1H NMR study of several Ln(III) chelates of DOTA-A(PEG750)HA allowed the determination of the isomeric M/m ratio (M = square antiprismatic isomer and m = twisted square antiprismatic isomer, the latter presenting a much faster water exchange) which for the Gd(III) chelate was estimated in circa 1:0.2, very close to that of [Gd(DOTA)]-. This explains why the PEGylated Gd(III) chelate has a water rate exchange similar to that of [Gd(DOTA)]-. The predominance of the M isomer is a consequence of the bulky PEG moiety which does not favor the stabilization of the m isomer in sterically crowded systems at the substituent site, contrary to what happens with less packed asymmetrical DOTA-type chelates with substitution in one of the four acetate C(α) atoms.

Aortopulmonary window. Clinical and surgical assessment of 18 cases

OBJECTIVE: Aortopulmonary window (APW) is an uncommon congenital malformation. Its clinical presentation is dependent on the size of the defect and on the associated lesions. We evaluated our experience with this anomaly and compared it with 296 cases reported in the literature. METHODS: Retrospective study of 18 patients diagnosed as having APW (age range from 13 days to 31 years, 13 (72.2%) females), divided into two groups: Group A (GA): 10 patients with isolated APW, and Group B (GB): 8 patients with associated lesions. RESULTS: Heart failure occurred in 14 patients, and cyanosis in 3: 2 from GB (tetralogy of Fallot - TF, and double outlet right ventricle - DORV), and one from GA with pulmonary hypertension. In 5 patients from GA the diagnosis of mitral regurgitation was made based on a systolic murmur and LV hypertrophy on the EKG. In GB, clinical findings were determined by the associated defect. Diagnosis was established by echocardiography in 11 (61.2%) of the patients. In 3 patients, a wrong diagnosis of mitral regurgitation was made, in 1 a patent ductus arteriosus was diagnosed and in 3 others, the diagnosis of APW was masked by other important associated defects (2 cases of DORV and 1 case of TF). The diagnosis was made by catheterization in 3 (16.6%) patients, by surgery in 3 (16.6%) and by necropsy in 1 (5.5%). Corrective surgery was performed in 14 (77.7%) patients, with one immediate death and good long-term follow-up in the remaining patients. CONCLUSION: APW can be confused with other defects. Clinical findings, associated with an adequate echocardiogram can provide the information for the correct diagnosis.

Recurrence of atrial septal defect in three generations

Beginning with a patient presenting with an atrial septal defect (ASD) of the secundum type, the genealogy was identified in four affected individuals who belonged to three successive generations of the same family. The defects were visually confirmed in all individuals and were found to be anatomically similar. No other congenital malformations were present in these individuals. The genealogy was identified in 1972, when ASD recurred in two generations, and it was concluded that the mechanism of transmission was autosomal recessive. The fifth individual, identified 21 years later, and having an anomaly identical to that of the others, was the child of a couple who had no consaguinity and whose mother was a member of the previously studied genealogy. Considering the absence of phenotype in the parents and the rarity of the ASD gene in the general population, the occurrence of the uniparental disomy for this family nucleus, and the same autosomal recessive mechanism of transmission by this affected individual is possible. This study reports the familial occurrence of ASD by genetic mechanisms of transmission, emphasizing the necessity for genetic-clinical studies in members of the familial nucleus in order to detect new carriers, who usually are asymptomatic, thereby allowing for early and adequate treatment of individuals who may be affected.

Critical aortic stenosis in the neonate. Clinical assessment and surgical outcome in 18 patients

OBJECTIVE - To assess neonates with aortic stenosis with early decompensation operated upon. (LCO) (CHF). METHODS - A and retrospective study analyzing 6 neonates with LCO, group I (GI), and 12 neonates with CHF, group II (GII). Clinical radiographic, electrocardiographic and echocardiographic findings also provided comparative bases for the study, as did surgical and evolutional findings. RESULTS - The mean ages at hospitalization and surgery (p = 0.0031) were 14.3 and 14.8 days in GI and 35.4 and 42.8 days in GII, respectively. Cardiac murmurs were more intense in GII (p = 0.0220). The aortic ring was smaller in GI (8.0 ± 2.5mm) as compared to GII (11.4±1.4mm) (p = 0.2882). Ventricular function was reduced to 18±5.5% and 33.3±7.6% in GI and GII, respectively (p = 0.0162). Aortic atresia, however, was present only in 2 neonates in GI. Five of 6 patients in GI died but all patients in GII survived (p=0.0007). In the latter group, 84.6% of the patients were in functional class I (FC-I) in the long-term follow-up, with moderate residual lesions in 6 neonates, discrete residual lesions in 4, and reoperation in 2. CONCLUSION - Aortic stenosis is a severe anomaly of the neonate, whose immediate evolution depends on the pre-operative anatomic and functional findings, and the late evolution essentially depends on the anatomic features of the valve.

Epidemiological study of congenital heart defects in children and adolescents: analysis of 4,538 cases

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the frequency and prevalence of congenital heart defects in a tertiary care center for children with heart diseases. METHODS: We carried out an epidemiological assessment of the first medical visit of 4,538 children in a pediatric hospital from January 1995 to December 1997. All patients with congenital heart defects had their diagnoses confirmed at least on echocardiography. The frequency and prevalence of the anomalies were computed according to the classification of sequential analysis. Age, weight, and sex were compared between the groups of healthy individuals and those with congenital heart defects after distribution according to the age group. RESULTS: Of all the children assessed, 2,017 (44.4%) were diagnosed with congenital heart disease, 201 (4.4%) with acquired heart disease, 52 (1.2%) with arrhythmias, and 2,268 (50%) were healthy children. Congenital heart diseases predominated in neonates and infants, corresponding to 71.5% of the cases. Weight and age were significantly lower in children with congenital heart defects. Ventricular septal defect was the most frequent acyanotic anomaly, and tetralogy of Fallot was the most frequent cyanotic anomaly. CONCLUSION: Children with congenital heart defects are mainly referred during the neonatal period and infancy with impairment in gaining weight. Ventricular septal defect is the most frequent heart defect.

Особенности локальной магнитной аномалии Цкалцминда-Уреки

შავი ზღვის სანაპიროზე ანომალიური გეომაგნიტური ველის ძველი და ახალი მნიშვნელობების შედარების მიზნით ჩატარებულია პროფ. მ. ნოდიას 1936-38 წლების მაგნიტურ-საძიებო ექსპედიციების შედეგებისა და 2000-2005 წლებში გეოფიზიკის ინსტიტუტის საველე-საექსპედიციო რაზმის მიერ მიღებული მონაცემების შედარებითი ანალიზი. გამოყოფილია გურიის რეგიონული გეომაგნიტური ანომალიის შემადგენელი ელემენტები ომფარეთისა და წყალწმინდა-ურეკის ლოკალური ანომალიები. შესრულებულია ამ ანომალიებია ფართობითი მაგნიტური აგეგმვა და კონტურირება. თეორიულად შეფასებულია სანაპირო ზოლში განთავსებულ წყალწმინდა-ურეკის ანომალიაში დამაგნიტებული ქვიშის არაერთგვაროვანი წარმონაქმნების, ქედებისა და ცალკეული ბორცვების არსებობით გამოწვეული შესაძლო მაგნიტური ეფექტი. აღნიშნული ლოკალური მაგნიტური ანომალიების განსაკუთრებულად არაერთგვაროვანი, წვრილმასშტაბოვანი სტრუქტურა მიანიშნებს მათ კავშირზე სიღრმულ გეოლოგიურ სტრუქტურებთან.

«Геомагнитная аномалия» широтного распределения электронной концентрации F2 слоя ионосферы

მსოფლიო ქსელის იონოსფერული სადგურების კრიტიკული სიხშირეების - fmin f0E, f0El, f0F2, დედამიწის ეკვატორთან ახლომდებარე გეომაგნიტური ობსერვატორიების (რომლებიც მოიცავენ ჩრდილოეთისა და სამხრეთის განედებს j≈±300-ს) დედამიწის მაგნიტური ველის X მდგენელისა და დედამიწის ახლომდებარე კოსმოსურ სივრცეში განხორციელებული ექსპერიმენტების კვლევის შედეგები, ერთობრივი კომპლექსური ანალიზი.

Модель локальной геомагнитной аномалии Цкалцминда-Уреки

მოცემულია წყალწმინდა-ურეკის საკურორტო ზონაში ჩატარებული მაგნიტომეტრიული და ელექტრომეტრიული გაზომვების გეოფიზიკური ინტერპრეტაციის შედეგები, რომელთა საფუძველზეც ჩატარებულია ამ ლოკალური მაგნიტური ანომალიის თვისობრივი ანალიზი.

Цителицкароиская магнитная аномалия и её геологическая интерпретация на основе новых геолого-гоеомагнитных данных

ახალი გეომაგნიტური და გეოლოგიური ინფორმაციების საფუძველზე დადგენილია, რომ წითელწყაროს მაგნიტური ანომალიის წყაროა ბაიოსის პორფირიტული წყების ქანები. ამასთან ერთად, გამოთქმულია მოსაზრება საკვლევი რეგიონის გეოტექნიკური განვითარების და მაგნიტური ანომალიის წარმოშობის გეოლოგიური ისტორიის შესახებ.

Electrophysiological Studies and Radiofrequency Ablations in Children and Adolescents with Arrhythmia

Background:Radiofrequency ablation is the standard non-pharmacological treatment for arrhythmias in pediatric patients. However, arrhythmias and their associated causes have particular features in this population.Objective:To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and findings of electrophysiological diagnostic studies and radiofrequency ablations in pediatric patients referred to the Electrophysiology Unit at Instituto de Cardiologia do Rio Grande do Sul, in order to characterize the particularities of this population.Methods:Cross-sectional study with 330 electrophysiological procedures performed in patients aged less than 20 years between June 1997 and August 2013.Results:In total, 330 procedures (9.6% of the overall procedures) were performed in patients aged less than 20 years (14.33 ± 3.25 years, age range 3 months to 19 years), 201 of which were males (60.9%). A total of 108 (32.7%) electrophysiological diagnostic studies were performed and of these, 48.1% showed abnormal findings. Overall, 219 radiofrequency ablations were performed (66.3%) with a success rate of 84.8%. The presence of an accessory pathway was the most prevalent finding, occurring in 158 cases (72.1%), followed by atrioventricular nodal reentrant tachycardia (16.8%), typical atrial flutter (3.1%) and extrasystoles originating from the right ventricular outflow tract (2.7%). Three patients developed complications during ablation (1.4%). Among congenital heart diseases, which occurred in 51 (15.4%) patients, atrial sept defect was the most frequent (27.4%), followed by ventricular sept defect (25.4%) and Ebstein's anomaly (17.6%).Conclusion:Electrophysiological study and radiofrequency ablation are effective tools for diagnosis and treatment of arrhythmias in the pediatric population.

Prognostic Value of Pulmonary Vascular Resistance by Magnetic Resonance in Systolic Heart Failure

Abstract Background: Pulmonary hypertension is associated with poor prognosis in heart failure. However, non-invasive diagnosis is still challenging in clinical practice. Objective: We sought to assess the prognostic utility of non-invasive estimation of pulmonary vascular resistances (PVR) by cardiovascular magnetic resonance to predict adverse cardiovascular outcomes in heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). Methods: Prospective registry of patients with left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) < 40% and recently admitted for decompensated heart failure during three years. PVRwere calculated based on right ventricular ejection fraction and average velocity of the pulmonary artery estimated during cardiac magnetic resonance. Readmission for heart failure and all-cause mortality were considered as adverse events at follow-up. Results: 105 patients (average LVEF 26.0 ±7.7%, ischemic etiology 43%) were included. Patients with adverse events at long-term follow-up had higher values of PVR (6.93 ± 1.9 vs. 4.6 ± 1.7estimated Wood Units (eWu), p < 0.001). In multivariate Cox regression analysis, PVR ≥ 5 eWu(cutoff value according to ROC curve) was independently associated with increased risk of adverse events at 9 months follow-up (HR2.98; 95% CI 1.12-7.88; p < 0.03). Conclusions: In patients with HFrEF, the presence of PVR ≥ 5.0 Wu is associated with significantly worse clinical outcome at follow-up. Non-invasive estimation of PVR by cardiac magnetic resonance might be useful for risk stratification in HFrEF, irrespective of etiology, presence of late gadolinium enhancement or LVEF.