Estimating Brazilian monthly GDP: a state-space approach

This paper has several original contributions. The rst is to employ a superior interpolation method that enables to estimate, nowcast and forecast monthly Brazilian GDP for 1980-2012 in an integrated way; see Bernanke, Gertler and Watson (1997, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity). Second, along the spirit of Mariano and Murasawa (2003, Journal of Applied Econometrics), we propose and test a myriad of interpolation models and interpolation auxiliary series all coincident with GDP from a business-cycle dating point of view. Based on these results, we nally choose the most appropriate monthly indicator for Brazilian GDP. Third, this monthly GDP estimate is compared to an economic activity indicator widely used by practitioners in Brazil- the Brazilian Economic Activity Index - (IBC-Br). We found that the our monthly GDP tracks economic activity better than IBC-Br. This happens by construction, since our state-space approach imposes the restriction (discipline) that our monthly estimate must add up to the quarterly observed series in any given quarter, whichmay not hold regarding IBC-Br. Moreover, our method has the advantage to be easily implemented: it only requires conditioning on two observed series for estimation, while estimating IBC-Br requires the availability of hundreds of monthly series. Third, in a nowcasting and forecasting exercise, we illustrate the advantages of our integrated approach. Finally, we compare the chronology of recessions of our monthly estimate with those done elsewhere.

Estimating Brazilian monthly GDP: a state-space approach

The first contribution of this paper is to employ a superior interpolation method that enables to estimate, nowcast and forecast monthly Brazilian GDP for 1980-2012 in an integrated way; see Bernanke, Gertler and Watson (1997, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity). The second contribution, along the spirit of Mariano and Murasawa (2003, Journal of Applied Econometrics), is to propose and test a myriad of inter-polation models and interpolation auxiliary series all coincident with GDP from a business-cycle dating point of view. Based on these results, we finally choose the most appropriate monthly indicator for Brazilian GDP. Third, this monthly GDP estimate is compared to an economic activity indicator widely used by practitioners in Brazil - the Brazilian Economic Activity Index - (IBC-Br). We found that our monthly GDP tracks economic activity better than IBC-Br. This happens by construction, since our state-space approach imposes the restriction (discipline) that our monthly estimate must add up to the quarterly observed series in any given quarter, which may not hold regarding IBC-Br. Moreover, our method has the advantage to be easily implemented: it only requires conditioning on two observed series for estimation, while estimating IBC-Br requires the availability of hundreds of monthly series. The third contribution is to illustrate, in a nowcasting and forecasting exercise, the advantages of our integrated approach. Finally, we compare the chronology of recessions of our monthly estimate with those done elsewhere.

Determinação de eletrólitos, gases sanguíneos, osmolalidade, hematócrito, hemoglobina, base titulável e anion gap no sangue venoso de equinos destreinados submetidos a exercício máximo e submáximo em esteira rolante

Estudaram-se as alterações nos eletrólitos, nos gases sanguíneos, na osmolalidade, no hematócrito, na hemoglobina, nas bases tituláveis e no anion gap no sangue venoso de 11 equinos da raça Puro Sangue Árabe, destreinados, submetidos a exercício máximo e submáximo em esteira rolante. Esses animais passaram por período de três dias de adaptação à esteira rolante e posteriormente realizaram dois exercícios testes, um de curta e outro de longa duração. Foram coletadas amostras de sangue venoso antes, imediatamente após e 30 minutos após o término dos exercícios. Após a realização do exercício máximo, observou-se diminuição significativa no pHv, na PvCO2, no HCO3, na cBase além de elevação no AG. Detectou-se também aumento do K+, do Ht e da Hb. Ao final do exercício submáximo, constatou-se somente aumento significativo no pHv, na cBase, na SatvO2 e na PvO2. Conclui-se que os equinos submetidos a exercício máximo desenvolveram acidose metabólica e alcalose respiratória compensatória, hipercalemia e aumento nos valores de hematócrito e hemoglobina. No exercício submáximo, os animais apresentaram alcalose metabólica hipoclorêmica e não ocorreram alterações no equilíbrio hidroeletrolítico.

Gestão do Conhecimento baseado na análise de GAP de competências: Um estudo de caso do DETRAN-RN

The Knowledge Management in organizations is a continuous process of learning that is given by the integration of data, information and the ability of people to use this information. The Management Skills is concerned to understand the powers of officials in the face of organizational skills (teams) and professionals (or tasks positions) want. Joints are located in the greater context of the economy of organizatio s and have the same assumption: that the possession of scarce resources, valuable and difficult to imitate gives the organization a competitive advantage. In this sense, this thesis proposes a model of knowledge management based on analysis of GAP of powers, namely the gap between the skills needed to reach the expected performance and skills already available in the organization, officials and trainees of Coordination of Registration of conductors of DETRAN-RN. Using the method of survey research could make an analysis of academic skills, techniques and emotional individual and a team of officials and trainees, identifying levels of GAP's competence in that sector of the organization and suggest a plan for training , A level of expertise for each sector of coordination, and propose a model for Knowledge Management to help the management of GAP's identified

Effect of the Insertion and Polymerization Technique in Composite Resin Restorations: Analysis of Marginal Gap by Atomic Force Microscopy

This in vitro study evaluated the marginal gap at the composite tooth/resin interface in class V cavities under the influence of two insertion techniques and a curing system by means of atomic force microscopy (AFM). Forty enamel and dentin cavities were prepared on the buccal surface in bovine teeth with quadratic forms measuring 2 mm X 2 mm and depth of 1.5 mm. The teeth were then divided into four groups: group A, 10 cavities were restored in one increment, light cured by halogen light; group B, 10 cavities filled with bulk filling, light cured by the light emitting diodes (LED); group C, 10 cavities were restored by the incremental technique, light cured by halogen light; group D, 10 cavities were restored by the incremental technique, light cured by the LED. The teeth underwent the polishing procedure and were analyzed by AFM for tooth/restoration interface evaluation. The data were compared between groups using the nonparametric Kruskall-Wallis and Mann-Whitney tests (p < 0.05). The results showed a statistically significant difference between groups A and B and groups A and C. It was concluded that no insertion and polymerization technique was able to completely seal the cavity.

Gap size measurement: the proposal of a new field method

In the tropical Atlantic Forest, 42 canopy gaps had their areas estimated using four different field methods of measurement: Runkle, Brokaw and Green [Runkle, J.R., 1981. Gap formation in some old-growth forests of the eastern United States. Ecology 62, 1041-1051; Brokaw, N.V.L., 1982. The definition of treefall gap and its effect on measures of forest dynamics. Biotropica 14, 158-160; Green, P.T., 1996. Canopy Gaps in rain forest on Christmas Island, Indian Ocean: size distribution and methods of measurement. J. Trop. Ecol. 12, 427-434] and a new method proposed in this work. It was found that within the same gap delimitation, average gap size varied from 56.0 up to 88.3 m(3) while total sum of gap area varied from 2351.3 to 3707.9 m(3) Differences among all methods and between pairs of method proved to be statistically significant. As a consequence, gap size-class distribution was also different between methods. When one method is held as a standard, deviation on average values of gap size ranged between 11.8 and 59.7% as deviations on single gap size can reach 172.8%. Implications on forest dynamics were expressed by the forest turnover rate that was 24% faster or 15% slower depending on the method adopted for gap measurement. Based on my results and on methods' evaluation, the use of a new method is proposed here for future research involving the measure of gap size in forest ecosystems. Finally, it is concluded that forest comparisons disregarding the influence of different methods of gap measurement should be reconsidered. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Gap disturbance regime and composition in the Atlantic Montane Rain Forest: the influence of topography

In the Atlantic Montane Rain Forest of south-eastern Brazil, a field study was carried out to describe the forest disturbance regime, analyse canopy gap composition and evaluate the influence of habitat parameters on gap tree species composition. We characterized canopy gaps considering the group of variables as follows: area, type and number of tree/branch falls, topographic position, soil coverage and surrounding canopy trees. Gap composition was assessed at species level by measuring all individuals inside gaps higher than one meter. Mean gap area of the 42 canopy gaps analysed was 71.9 +/- 9.0 m(2) (mean +/- SE). Out of the studied gaps, 35.7% were created by uprooted and by snapped trees, 16.7% by dead-standing trees and 11.9% by the fall of large branches. The disturbance regime was characterized by gap openings predominantly smaller than 150 m(2) and by spatial patterning related to topography. Ridges had smaller gaps and higher proportions of gaps created by branch falls; slopes had bigger gaps generally created by uprooting events. The more abundant and frequent species were shade tolerant and the more species-rich families found inside gaps did not differ from the forest as a whole. Pioneer species were rare and restricted to medium and large size classes. The Indicator Species Analysis and the Canonical Correspondence Analysis indicated gap area, topography and the percentage of soil cover by the genera Calathea and Ctenanthe were the predominant variables correlated with woody species distribution. So, topography emerged as an important issue not only to the gap disturbance regime, but also to gap colonization. In respect to the influence of gap processes on the Atlantic Montane Rain Forest regeneration, our results support the view that canopy gap events may not be working as promoters of community wide floristic shifts.

Mutational analysis of the GAP-related domain of the neurofibromatosis type 1 gene in Brazilian NF1 patients

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Gap solitons in Bose-Einstein condensates in linear and nonlinear optical lattices

Properties of localized states on array of BEC confined to a potential, representing superposition of linear and nonlinear optical lattices are investigated. For a shallow lattice case the coupled mode system has been derived. We revealed new types of gap solitons and studied their stability. For the first time a moving soliton solution has been found. Analytical predictions are confirmed by numerical simulations of the Gross-Pitaevskii equation with jointly acting linear and nonlinear periodic potentials. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Tightly bound gap solitons in a Fermi gas

Within the framework of the mean-field hydrodynamic model of a degenerate Fermi gas ( DFG), we study, by means of numerical methods and variational approximation ( VA), the formation of fundamental gap solitons ( FGSs) in a DFG ( or in a BCS superfluid generated by weak interaction between spin- up and spin- down fermions), which is trapped in a periodic optical- lattice ( OL) potential. An effectively one- dimensional ( 1D) con. guration is considered, assuming strong transverse confinement; in parallel, a proper 1D model of the DFG ( which amounts to the known quintic equation for the Tonks- Girardeau gas in the OL) is considered too. The FGSs found in the first two bandgaps of the OL- induced spectrum ( unless they are very close to edges of the gaps) feature a ( tightly bound) shape, being essentially confined to a single cell of the OL. In the second bandgap, we also find antisymmetric tightly bound subfundamental solitons ( SFSs), with zero at the midpoint. The SFSs are also confined to a single cell of the OL, but, unlike the FGSs, they are unstable. The predicted solitons, consisting of similar to 10(4) - 10(5) atoms, can be created by available experimental techniques in the DFG of Li-6 atoms.

q-Analog of the gap equation for cuprates

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Gap solitons in a model of a superfluid fermion gas in optical lattices

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)