913 resultados para Futures Studies methods


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The lytropic liquid crystals in dodecanic acid diethanolamine (DAD)/n-butanol (C4OH)/octane (n-C8H18)/deuteron (D2O) system were studied to determine the phase regions and were investigated by H-2-NMR spectroscopy,optical polarizing microscope and small-angle X-ray diffraction (SAXD) methods. The results indicate that the lamellar, hexagonal and cubic liquid crystals all exist in the above system. Keeping the weight ratio of DAD and C4OH constant,the microphase structure, H-2 quadruple splitting and the interlayer spacing are all changed with the addition of deuteron.

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In the present paper, we have elucidated the importance of energy and water cycling in arid areas to investigate global climate and local economics. Then, we were concerned with the physical arguments as how to stratify the soil, and the stability of the numerical scheme in the mathematical model for predicting temperature variation and water motion. Furthermore, we discuss the methods to estimate evaporation in arid areas. Numerical simulation of energy and water cycling at the Acsu Observatory, CAS, Xinjiang province and Shapuotou Observatory, CAS, Ningxia Province are conducted as case studies. The results show that the laws of terrestrial processes are rather typical in these arid areas. Planting drought-endurable trees can alleviate unfavourable conditions to a certain extent. (C) 1997 Academic Press Limited.

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This paper reviews the methods for measuring the economic cost of conflict. Estimating the economic costs of conflict requires a counterfactual calculation, which makes this a very difficult task. Social researchers have resorted to different estimation methods depending on the particular effect in question. The method used in each case depends on the units being analyzed (firms, sectors, regions or countries), the outcome variable under study (aggregate output, market valuation of firms, market shares, etc.) and data availability (a single cross-section, time series or panel data). This paper reviews existing methods used in the literature to assess the economic impact of conflict: cost accounting, cross-section methods, time series methods, panel data methods, gravity models, event studies, natural experiments and comparative case studies. The paper ends with a discussion of cost estimates and directions for further research.

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This document describes the analytical methods used to quantify core organic chemicals in tissue and sediment collected as part of NOAA’s National Status and Trends Program (NS&T) for the years 2000-2006. Organic contaminat analytical methods used during the early years of the program are described in NOAA Technical Memoranda NOS ORCA 71 and 130 (Lauenstein and Cantillo, 1993; Lauenstein and Cantillo, 1998) for the years 1984-1992 and 1993-1996, respectively. These reports are available from our website (http://www.ccma.nos.gov) The methods detailed in this document were utilized by the Mussel Watch Project and Bioeffects Project, which are both part of the NS&T program. The Mussel Watch Project has been monitoring contaminants in bivalves and sediments since 1986 and is the longest active national contaminant monitoring program operating in U.S. costal waters. Approximately 280 Mussel Watch sites are sampled on a biennial and decadal timescale for bivalve tissue and sediment respectively. Similarly, the Bioeffects Assessment Project began in 1986 to characterize estuaries and near coastal environs. Using the sediment quality triad approach that measures; (1) levels of contaminants in sediments, (2) incidence and severity of toxicity, and (3) benthic macrofaunal conmmunities, the Bioeffects Project describes the spatial extent of sediment toxicity. Contaminant assessment is a core function of both projects. These methods, while discussed here in the context of sediment and bivalve tissue, were also used with other matricies including: fish fillet, fish liver, nepheloid layer, and suspended particulate matter. The methods described herein are for the core organic contaminants monitored in the NS&T Program and include polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), butyltins, and organochlorines that have been analyzed consistently over the past 15-20 years. Organic contaminants such as dioxins, perfluoro compounds and polybrominated biphenyl ethers (PBDEs) were analyzed periodically in special studies of the NS&T Program and will be described in another document. All of the analytical techniques described in this document were used by B&B Laboratories, Inc, an affiliate of TDI-Brook International, Inc. in College Station, Texas under contract to NOAA. The NS&T Program uses a performance-based system approach to obtain the best possible data quality and comparability, and requires laboratories to demonstrate precision, accuracy, and sensitivity to ensure results-based performance goals and measures. (PDF contains 75 pages)

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One goal of Gray’s Reef National Marine Sanctuary (NMS) is to protect the unique community found within the Sanctuary’s boundaries. An understanding of the ecological interactions, including trophic structure, among these organisms is necessary to realize this goal. Therefore, diet information for 184 fish species was summarized from 113 published studies. Among the fish included are 84 fish species currently known to reside in Gray’s Reef NMS. The locations of these studies ranged from the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of the northeast United States to northern Brazil, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Caribbean. All of the species described in this bibliography occur in the southeast United States and are, therefore, current or potential residents of Gray’s Reef National Marine Sanctuary. Each entry includes the objectives, brief methods, and conclusions of the article. The bibliography is also indexed by species. (PDF contains 64 pages.)

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ENGLISH: The staff of the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission is collecting and analyzing catch statistics of the Eastern Pacific fishery for yellowfin tuna (Neothunnus macropterus) and skipjack (Katsuwonus pelamis) in order to provide the factual information required for maintaining the catch of these species at maximum sustainable levels (Shimada and Schaefer, 1956). Careful, systematic and continued studies of the population structure, life history, and ecology of these species are needed for a proper and adequate interpretation of the catch statistics so that a sound conservation program may be achieved (Schaefer, 1956). SPANISH: El personal científico de la Comisión Interamericana del Atún Tropical cumple, entre sus tareas, la de reunir y analizar las estadísticas de pesca del atún aleta amarilla (Neothunnus macropterus) y del barrilete (Katsuwonus pelamis) de la pesquería del Pacífico Oriental, a fin de adquirir la información necesaria para mantener la pesca de estas especies a niveles de producción máxima sostenible (Shimada y Schaefer, 1956). Estudios cuidadosos, sistemáticos y continuos de la estructura de la población y ciclo de vida y ecología de estas especies, son necesarios para lograr una interpretación adecuada de las estadísticas de pesca, de modo que éstas, a su vez, permitan realizar un programa conservacionista serio (Schaefer, 1956). (PDF contains 73 pages.)

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The effects of light duration on the growth and performance of Clarias gariepinus fingerlings were investigated using artificial methods to simulate continuous day length and absolute darkness. The normal day length (12-H Light and 12-H Darkness) served as the control. Among some of the factors affected by the varying photoperiods there were body coloration, feeding efficiency, survival rate and Specific Growth Rate (SGR). There was notably no significant difference between the SGR of the 0-photoperiod culture and the control (P>0.05) but there was significant difference between the 0-photoperiod and the 24-H photoperiod experiment (P<0.05). The haematological profile analysed showed various degrees of changes in the blood parameters of fish cultured under different photoperiods. These changes however, did not show significant differences when subjected to statistical analysis

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A set of experimental system to study hydrate dissociation in porous media is built and some experiments on hydrate dissociation by depressurization are carried out. A mathematical model is developed to simulate the hydrate dissociation by depressurization in hydrate-bearing porous media. The model can be used to analyze the effects of the flow of multiphase fluids, the kinetic process and endothermic process of hydrate dissociation, ice-water phase equilibrium, the variation of permeability, convection and conduction on the hydrate dissociation, and gas and water productions. The numerical results agree well with the experimental results, which validate our mathematical model. For a 3-D hydrate reservoir of Class 3, the evolutions of pressure, temperature, and saturations are elucidated and the effects of some main parameters on gas and water rates are analyzed. Numerical results show that gas can be produced effectively from hydrate reservoir in the first stage of depressurization. Then, methods such as thermal stimulation or inhibitor injection should be considered due to the energy deficiency of formation energy. The numerical results for 3-D hydrate reservoir of Class 1 show that the overlying gas hydrate zone can apparently enhance gas rate and prolong life span of gas reservoir.

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Because the Earth’s upper mantle is inaccessible to us, in order to understand the chemical and physical processes that occur in the Earth’s interior we must rely on both experimental work and computational modeling. This thesis addresses both of these geochemical methods. In the first chapter, I develop an internally consistent comprehensive molar volume model for spinels in the oxide system FeO-MgO-Fe2O3-Cr2O3-Al2O3-TiO2. The model is compared to the current MELTS spinel model with a demonstration of the impact of the model difference on the estimated spinel-garnet lherzolite transition pressure. In the second chapter, I calibrate a molar volume model for cubic garnets in the system SiO2-Al2O3-TiO2-Fe2O3-Cr2O3-FeO-MnO-MgO-CaO-Na2O. I use the method of singular value analysis to calibrate excess volume of mixing parameters for the garnet model. The implications the model has for the density of the lithospheric mantle are explored. In the third chapter, I discuss the nuclear inelastic X-ray scattering (NRIXS) method, and present analysis of three orthopyroxene samples with different Fe contents. Longitudinal and shear wave velocities, elastic parameters, and other thermodynamic information are extracted from the raw NRIXS data.

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The reactivity of permethylzirconocene and permethylhafnocene complexes with various nucleophiles has been investigated. Permethylzirconocene reacts with sterically hindered ketenes and allenes to afford metallacycle products. Reaction of these cummulenes with permethylzirconocene hydride complexes affords enolate and σ-allyl species, respectively. Reactions which afford enolate products are nonstereospecific, whereas reactions which afford allyl products initially give a cis-σ-allyl complex which rearranges to its trans isomer. The mechanism of these reactions is proposed to occur either by a Lewis Acid-Lewis Base interaction (ketenes) or by formation of a π-olefin intermediate (allenes).

Permethylzirconocene haloacyl complexes react with strong bases such as lithium diisopropylamide or methylene trimethylphosphorane to afford ketene compounds. Depending on the size of the alkyl ketene substituent, the hydrogenation of these compounds affords enolate-hydride products with varying degrees of stereoselectivity. The larger the substituent, the greater is the selectivity for cis hydrogenation products.

The reaction of permethylzirconocene dihydride and permethylhafnocene dihydride with methylene trimethylphosphorane affords methyl-hydride and dimethyl derivatives. Under appropriate conditions, the metallated-ylide complex 1, (η^5-C_5(CH_3)_5)_2 Zr(H)CH_2PMe_2CH_2, is also obtained and has been structurally characterized by X-ray diffraction techniques. Reaction of 1 with CO affords (η^5-C_5(CH_3)_5)_2 Zr(C,O-η^2 -(PMe_3)HC=CO)H which exists in solution as an equilibrium mixture of isomers. In one isomer (2), the η^2-acyl oxygen atom occupies a lateral equatorial coordination position about zirconium, whereas in the other isomer (3), the η-acyl oxygen atom occupies the central equatorial position. The equilibrium kinetics of the 2→3 isomerization have been studied and the structures of both complexes confirmed by X-ray diffraction methods. These studies suggest a mechanism for CO insertion into metal-carbon bonds of the early transition metals.

Permethylhafnocene dihydride and permethylzirconocene hydride complexes react with diazoalkanes to afford η^2-N, N' -hydrazonido species in which the terminal nitrogen atom of the diazoalkane molecule has inserted into a metal-hydride or metal-carbon bond. The structure of one of these compounds, Cp*_2Zr(NMeNCTol_2)OH, has been determined by X-ray diffraction techniques. Under appropriate conditions, the hydrazonido-hydride complexes react with a second equivalent of diazoalkene to afford η' -N-hydrazonido-η^2-N, N' -hydrazonido species.

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Designers who want to manufacture a hardenable steel component need to select both the steel and its heat treatment. This project aims to develop a selection methodology for steels and process routes as an aid to designers. Three studies were conducted: - production of software to calculate the "equivalent diameter" and "equivalent Jominy distance" for simple shapes of a steel component; - prediction of semi-empirical Jominy curves (as-cooled) using CCT diagrams and process modelling methods, which were validated by experiment on plain carbon steels; - investigation of tempering of Jominy bars to explore the potential for semi-empirical models for the hardness after tempering.

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Chapter 1

Cyclobutanediyl has been studied in both its singlet and triplet states by ab initio electronic structure theory. The triplet, which is the ground state of the molecule, exists in both C_(2h) and C_(2v) forms, which interconvert via a C_s transition state. For the singlet, only a C_(2h) form is found. It passes, via a C_s transition state, onto the C_(2v) surface on which bicyclobutane is the only minimum. The ring-flipping (inversion) process in bicyclobutane includes the singlet biradical as an intermediate, and involves a novel, nonleast motion pathway. Semiclassical periodic orbit theory indicates that the various minima on both the singlet and triplet surfaces can interconvert via quantum mechanical tunneling.

Chapter 2

The dimethylenepolycyclobutadienes (n) are the non-Kekulé analogues of the classical acenes. Application of a variety of theoretical methods reveals several novel features of such structures. Most interesting is the emergence of a parity rule. When n is even, n is predicted to be a singlet, with n disjoint NBMOs. When n is odd, theory predicts a triplet ground state with (n+1) NBMOs that are not fully disjoint.

Chapter 3

Bi(cyclobutadienyl) (2), the cyclobutadiene analogue of biphenyl, and its homologues tri- (3) and tetra(cyclobutadienyl) (4) have been studied using electronic structure theory. Ab initio calculations on 2 reveal that the central bond is a true double bond, and that the structure is best thought of as two allyl radicals plus an ethylene. The singlet and triplet states are essentially degenerate. Trimer 3 is two allyls plus a dimethylenecyclobutanediyl, while 4 is two coplanar bi(cyclobutadienyl) units connected by a single bond. For both 3 and 4, the quintet, triplet, and singlet states are essentially degenerate, indicating that they are tetraradicals. The infinite polymer, polycyclobutadiene, has been studied by HMO, EHCO, and VEH methods. Several geometries based on the structures of 3 and 4 have been studied, and the band structures are quite intriguing. A novel crossing between the valence and conduction bands produces a small band gap and a high density of states at the Fermi level.

Chapter 4

At the level of Hückel theory, polyfulvene has a HOCO-LUCO degeneracy much like that seen in polyacetylene. Higher levels of theory remove the degeneracy, but the band gap (E_g) is predicted to be significantly smaller than analogous structures such as polythiophene and polypyrrole at the fulvenoid geometry. An alternative geometry, which we have termed quinoid, is also conceivable for polyfulvene, and it is predicted to have a much larger E_g. The effects of benzannelation to produce analogues of polyisothianaphthene have been evaluated. We propose a new model for such structures based on conventional orbital mixing arguments. Several of the proposed structures have quite interesting properties, which suggest that they are excellent candidates for conducting polymers.

Chapter 5

Theoretical studies of polydimethylenecyclobutene and polydiisopropylidene- cyclobutene reveal that, because of steric crowding, they cannot achieve a planar, fully conjugated structure in either their undoped or doped states. Rather, the structure consists of essentially orthogonal hexatriene units. Such a structure is incompatible with conventional conduction mechanisms involving polarons and bipolarons.

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Uncovering the demographics of extrasolar planets is crucial to understanding the processes of their formation and evolution. In this thesis, we present four studies that contribute to this end, three of which relate to NASA's Kepler mission, which has revolutionized the field of exoplanets in the last few years.

In the pre-Kepler study, we investigate a sample of exoplanet spin-orbit measurements---measurements of the inclination of a planet's orbit relative to the spin axis of its host star---to determine whether a dominant planet migration channel can be identified, and at what confidence. Applying methods of Bayesian model comparison to distinguish between the predictions of several different migration models, we find that the data strongly favor a two-mode migration scenario combining planet-planet scattering and disk migration over a single-mode Kozai migration scenario. While we test only the predictions of particular Kozai and scattering migration models in this work, these methods may be used to test the predictions of any other spin-orbit misaligning mechanism.

We then present two studies addressing astrophysical false positives in Kepler data. The Kepler mission has identified thousands of transiting planet candidates, and only relatively few have yet been dynamically confirmed as bona fide planets, with only a handful more even conceivably amenable to future dynamical confirmation. As a result, the ability to draw detailed conclusions about the diversity of exoplanet systems from Kepler detections relies critically on understanding the probability that any individual candidate might be a false positive. We show that a typical a priori false positive probability for a well-vetted Kepler candidate is only about 5-10%, enabling confidence in demographic studies that treat candidates as true planets. We also present a detailed procedure that can be used to securely and efficiently validate any individual transit candidate using detailed information of the signal's shape as well as follow-up observations, if available.

Finally, we calculate an empirical, non-parametric estimate of the shape of the radius distribution of small planets with periods less than 90 days orbiting cool (less than 4000K) dwarf stars in the Kepler catalog. This effort reveals several notable features of the distribution, in particular a maximum in the radius function around 1-1.25 Earth radii and a steep drop-off in the distribution larger than 2 Earth radii. Even more importantly, the methods presented in this work can be applied to a broader subsample of Kepler targets to understand how the radius function of planets changes across different types of host stars.