The water vapour flux above Switzerland and its role in the August 2005 extreme precipitation and flooding

The water budget approach is applied to an atmospheric box above Switzerland (hereafter referred to as the “Swiss box”) to quantify the atmospheric water vapour flux using ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalyses. The results confirm that the water vapour flux through the Swiss box is highly temporally variable, ranging from 1 to 5 · 107 kg/s during settled anticyclonic weather, but increasing in size by a factor of ten or more during high speed currents of water vapour. Overall, Switzerland and the Swiss box “import” more water vapour than it “exports”, but the amount gained remains only a small fraction (1% to 5%) of the total available water vapour passing by. High inward water vapour fluxes are not necessarily linked to high precipitation episodes. The water vapour flux during the August 2005 floods, which caused severe damage in central Switzerland, is examined and an assessment is made of the computed water vapour fluxes compared to high spatio-temporal rain gauge and radar observations. About 25% of the incoming water vapour flux was stored in Switzerland. The computed water vapour fluxes from ECMWF data compare well with the mean rain gauge observations and the combined rain-gauge radar precipitation products.

Hochwasser-«Katastrophen» in Basel vom 13. bis 21. Jahrhundert Rekonstruktion, Deutung und Lerneffekte

Magnitudes of peak discharges of 43 non-instrumentally measured Rhine river floods at Basel were reconstructed. The methodology is based on a range of different historic sources, containing flood information (including traditional urban inundation reference points from flood reports of medieval and early modern period chroniclers as well as 19th century journalists, flood marks, paintings and drawings, town maps, longitudinal and cross profiles etc.). These traditional pre-instrumental “flood information systems” still existed in the 19th century, when in 1808 the first instrumental hydrological measurements started. They thus could be calibrated with instrumental measurements in the 19th century overlapping period. The result is a 743 year long quantified Rhine river flood series. Floods of both periods (pre-instrumental as well as instrumental) can thus be directly compared for the very first time. The long-range consequences of rivers Kander and Aare deviations in 1714 and 1878 are reflected in a distinct change of magnitudes of peak discharges in Basel. A clear flood “disaster gap” appears in the 20th century. The lack of any extreme floods for such a long time is completely unique during the 743-year period of analysis. This result will influence the statistical assessment of once-in-a-century events, which might be of great interest for insurance campanies.

Impact of normal and shear stresses due to wheel slip on hydrological properties of an agricultural clay loam: Experimental and new computerized approach

The main purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect that mechanical stresses acting under the slipping driving wheels of agricultural equipment have on the soil’s pore system and water flow process (surface runoff generation during extreme event). The field experiment simulated low slip (1%) and high slip (27%) on a clay loam. The stress on the soil surface and changes in the amounts of water flowing from macropores were simulated using the Tires/tracks And Soil Compaction (TASC) tool and the MACRO model, respectively. Taking a 65 kW tractor on a clay loam as a reference, results showed that an increase in slip of the rear wheels from 1% to 27% caused normal stress to increase from 90.6 kPa to 104.4 kPa at the topsoil level, and the maximum shear contact stress to rise drastically from 6.0 kPa to 61.6 kPa. At 27% slip, topsoil was sheared and displaced over a distance of 0.35 m. Excessive normal and shear stress values with high slip caused severe reductions of the soil’s macroporosity, saturated hydraulic conductivity, and water quantities flowing from topsoil macropores. Assuming that, under conditions of intense rainfall on sloping land, a loss in vertical water flow would mean an increase in surface runoff, we calculated that a rainfall intensity of 100 mm h-1 and a rainfall duration of 1 h would increase the runoff coefficient to 0.79 at low slip and to 1.00 at high slip, indicating that 100% of rainwater would be transformed into surface runoff at high slip. We expect that these effects have a significant impact on soil erosion and floods in steeper terrain (slope > 15°) and across larger surface areas (> 16 m2) than those included in our study.

Hazard index maps for woody material recruitment and transport in alpine catchments

A robust and reliable risk assessment procedure for hydrologic hazards deserves particular attention to the role of transported woody material during flash floods or debris flows. At present, woody material transport phenomena are not systematically considered within the procedures for the elaboration of hazard maps. The consequence is a risk of losing prediction accuracy and of underestimating hazard impacts. Transported woody material frequently interferes with the sediment regulation capacity of open check dams and moreover, when obstruction phenomena at critical crosssections of the stream occur, inundations can be triggered. The paper presents a procedure for the determination of the relative propensity of mountain streams to the entrainment and delivery of recruited woody material on the basis of empirical indicators. The procedure provided the basis for the elaboration of a hazard index map for all torrent catchments of the Autonomous Province of Bolzano/Bozen. The plausibility of the results has been thoroughly checked by a backward oriented analysis on natural hazard events, documented since 1998 at the Department of Hydraulic Engineering of the aforementioned Alpine Province. The procedure provides hints for the consideration of the effects, induced by woody material transport, during the elaboration of hazard zone maps.

Spatial variability and potential impacts of climate change on flood and debris flow hazard zone mapping and implications for risk management

The main goals of this study were to identifythe alpine torrent catchments that are sensitive to climatic changes and to assess the robustness of the methods for the elaboration of flood and debris flow hazard zone maps to specific effects of climate changes. In this study, a procedure for the identification and localization of torrent catchments in which the climate scenarios will modify the hazard situation was developed. In two case studies, the impacts of a potential increase of precipitation intensities to the delimited hazard zones were studied. The identification and localization of the torrent and river catchments, where unfavourable changes in the hazard situation occur, could eliminate speculative and unnecessary measures against the impacts of climate changes like a general enlargement of hazard zones or a general over dimensioning of protection structures for the whole territory. The results showed a high spatial variability of the sensitivity of catchments to climate changes. In sensitive catchments, the sediment management in alpine torrents will meet future challenges due to a higher rate for sediment removal from retention basins. The case studies showed a remarkable increase of the areas affected by floods and debris flow when considering possible future precipitation intensities in hazard mapping. But, the calculated increase in extent of future hazard zones lay within the uncertainty of the methods used today for the delimitation of the hazard zones. Thus, the consideration of the uncertainties laying in the methods for the elaboration of hazard zone maps in the torrent and river catchments sensitive to climate changes would provide a useful instrument for the consideration of potential future climate conditions. The study demonstrated that weak points in protection structures in future will become more important in risk management activities.

Managing Debris Flow Risks

Debris flows represent a widespread threat to villages and small towns in the Swiss Alps. For many centuries people “managed” such risks by trying to avoid hazardous areas. However, major debris flow and flood events in the last 25 years have revealed that the degree of freedom to engage in this type of risk management has substantially decreased. This became especially evident during the 1999 disasters in a number of places in Switzerland. The winter of that year was unusually wet. In February heavy snowfall triggered destructive avalanches. In May high temperatures caused heavy snowmelt, with excessive rainfall contributing more water to the already saturated soils. Landslides, debris flows and floods were triggered in many locations, including Sörenberg. Hazard prevention and disaster management have a long tradition in Switzerland, although an integrated approach to risk management is rather new. Only in recent years have methods and tools been developed to assess hazards, define protection goals, and implement disaster reduction measures. The case of Sörenberg serves as an example of how today's approaches to disaster reduction are implemented at the local level.

Flood triggering in Switzerland: the role of daily to monthly preceding precipitation

Determining the role of different precipitation periods for peak discharge generation is crucial for both projecting future changes in flood probability and for short- and medium-range flood forecasting. In this study, catchment-averaged daily precipitation time series are analyzed prior to annual peak discharge events (floods) in Switzerland. The high number of floods considered – more than 4000 events from 101 catchments have been analyzed – allows to derive significant information about the role of antecedent precipitation for peak discharge generation. Based on the analysis of precipitation times series, a new separation of flood-related precipitation periods is proposed: (i) the period 0 to 1 day before flood days, when the maximum flood-triggering precipitation rates are generally observed, (ii) the period 2 to 3 days before flood days, when longer-lasting synoptic situations generate "significantly higher than normal" precipitation amounts, and (iii) the period from 4 days to 1 month before flood days when previous wet episodes may have already preconditioned the catchment. The novelty of this study lies in the separation of antecedent precipitation into the precursor antecedent precipitation (4 days before floods or earlier, called PRE-AP) and the short range precipitation (0 to 3 days before floods, a period when precipitation is often driven by one persistent weather situation like e.g., a stationary low-pressure system). A precise separation of "antecedent" and "peak-triggering" precipitation is not attempted. Instead, the strict definition of antecedent precipitation periods permits a direct comparison of all catchments. The precipitation accumulating 0 to 3 days before an event is the most relevant for floods in Switzerland. PRE-AP precipitation has only a weak and region-specific influence on flood probability. Floods were significantly more frequent after wet PRE-AP periods only in the Jura Mountains, in the western and eastern Swiss plateau, and at the outlet of large lakes. As a general rule, wet PRE-AP periods enhance the flood probability in catchments with gentle topography, high infiltration rates, and large storage capacity (karstic cavities, deep soils, large reservoirs). In contrast, floods were significantly less frequent after wet PRE-AP periods in glacial catchments because of reduced melt. For the majority of catchments however, no significant correlation between precipitation amounts and flood occurrences is found when the last 3 days before floods are omitted in the precipitation amounts. Moreover, the PRE-AP was not higher for extreme floods than for annual floods with a high frequency and was very close to climatology for all floods. The fact that floods are not significantly more frequent nor more intense after wet PRE-AP is a clear indicator of a short discharge memory of Pre-Alpine, Alpine and South Alpine Swiss catchments. Our study poses the question whether the impact of long-term precursory precipitation for floods in such catchments is not overestimated in the general perception. The results suggest that the consideration of a 3–4 days precipitation period should be sufficient to represent (understand, reconstruct, model, project) Swiss Alpine floods.

Health impacts of extreme weather: Flood fatalities in Texas

Floods are the leading cause of fatalities related to natural disasters in Texas. Texas leads the nation in flash flood fatalities. From 1959 through 2009 there were three times more fatalities in Texas (840) than the following state Pennsylvania (265). Texas also leads the nation in flood-related injuries (7753). Flood fatalities in Texas represent a serious public health problem. This study addresses several objectives of Healthy People 2010 including reducing deaths from motor vehicle accidents (Objective 15-15), reducing nonfatal motor vehicle injuries (Objective 15-17), and reducing drownings (Objective 15-29). The study examined flood fatalities that occurred in Texas between 1959 and 2008. Flood fatality statistics were extracted from three sources: flood fatality databases from the National Climatic Data Center, the Spatial Hazard Event and Loss Database for the United States, and the Texas Department of State Health Services. The data collected for flood fatalities include the date, time, gender, age, location, and type of flood. Inconsistencies among the three databases were identified and discussed. Analysis reveals that most fatalities result from driving into flood water (77%). Spatial analysis indicates that more fatalities occurred in counties containing major urban centers – some of the Flash Flood Alley counties (Bexar, Dallas, Travis, and Tarrant), Harris County (Houston), and Val Verde County (Del Rio). An intervention strategy targeting the behavior of driving into flood water is proposed. The intervention is based on the Health Belief model. The main recommendation of the study is that flood fatalities in Texas can be reduced through a combination of improved hydrometeorological forecasting, educational programs aimed at enhancing the public awareness of flood risk and the seriousness of flood warnings, and timely and appropriate action by local emergency and safety authorities.^

Micro-facies and µXRF element scanning data of Dead Sea sediment cores DSEn and 5017-1

Laminated lake sediments from the Dead Sea basin provide high-resolution records of climatic variability in the eastern Mediterranean region, which is especially sensitive to changing climatic conditions. In this study, we aim on detailed reconstruction of climatic fluctuations and related changes in the frequency of flood and dust deposition events at ca. 3300 and especially at 2800 cal. yr BP from high-resolution sediment records of the Dead Sea basin. A ca. 4-m-thick, mostly varved sediment section from the western margin of the Dead Sea (DSEn - Ein Gedi profile) was analysed and correlated to the new International Continental Scientific Drilling Program (ICDP) Dead Sea Deep Drilling Project core 5017-1 from the deep basin. To detect even single event layers, we applied a multi-proxy approach of high-resolution microscopic thin section analyses, micro-X-ray fluorescence (µ-XRF) element scanning and magnetic susceptibility measurements, supported by grain size data and palynological analyses. Based on radiocarbon and varve dating, two pronounced dry periods were detected at ~3500-3300 and ~3000-2400 cal. yr BP which are differently expressed in the sediment records. In the shallow-water core (DSEn), the older dry period is characterised by a thick sand deposit, whereas the sedimentological change at 2800 cal. yr BP is less pronounced and characterised mainly by an enhanced frequency of coarse detrital layers interpreted as erosion events. In the 5017-1 deep-basin core, both dry periods are depicted by halite deposits. The onset of the younger dry period coincides with the Homeric Grand Solar Minimum at ca. 2800 cal. yr BP. Our results suggest that during this period, the Dead Sea region experienced an overall dry climate, superimposed by an increased occurrence of flash floods caused by a change in synoptic weather patterns.

Eficiencia de la retención hídrica de las cubiertas vegetadas

La inundación repentina en áreas urbanas por sobrecarga de las redes de drenaje es un problema recurrente con impactos negativos de importancia creciente. Las cubiertas vegetadas ("naturadas") retienen parte de la lámina de agua precipitada, reduciendo el escurrimiento superficial y generando hidrogramas de escorrentía directa con caudales pico menores y más retardados. Dichas propiedades hacen que esta tecnología pueda contribuir a reducir la sobrecarga de cauces urbanos. En esta comunicación se presentan los primeros resultados (parciales) de la determinación de la eficiencia de retención hídrica (en forma indirecta a partir de la cantidad de agua percolada), en parcelas de ensayo que simulen "cubiertas naturadas", con dos profundidades de sustrato y con dos situaciones respecto a la cobertura (con y sin vegetación). Los mismos muestran una tendencia positiva de las "cubiertas naturadas" en la contribución a la reducción del escurrimiento, siendo mayor la retención en las parcelas vegetadas y sustrato de mayor espesor.

Eficiencia en la retención del agua de lluvia de cubiertas vegetadas de tipo "extensivo" e "intensivo"

La inundación en áreas urbanas por sobrecarga de las redes de drenaje es un problema recurrente de importancia creciente. Las cubiertas vegetadas (naturadas) retienen parte de la lámina de agua precipitada, reduciendo el escurrimiento superficial y generando hidrogramas de escorrentía directa con caudales pico menores y más retardados. Estas propiedades hacen que esta tecnología pueda contribuir a reducir la sobrecarga de cauces urbanos. Los resultados obtenidos a lo largo de casi dos años de estudio permitieron estimar una capacidad de retención de las cubiertas ensayadas (en la Ciudad de Buenos Aires), que ha sido variable en función de la precipitación, del grado de cobertura y profundidad del sustrato. Es así que el porcentaje retenido ha sido alto (73% a 100%) con precipitaciones menores o iguales a los 20 mm, alrededor del 60% con lluvias de 35 a 40 mm, y con precipitaciones cercanas a 100 mm los porcentajes de retención se redujeron notablemente, alcanzando valores cercanos al 30%. Estos resultados posicionan las cubiertas vegetadas, para las condiciones y sitio del ensayo, como una alternativa dentro del manejo hídrico integrado en cuencas urbanas.

Ilusiones territoriales : las imágenes en la construcción del territorio costero santafesino

En este trabajo se intenta un abordaje histórico-geográfico de un caso relacionado con los estudios de la historia reciente y de la geografía cultural. Se pretende una aproximación a cuestiones relativas a la construcción de los territorios, particularmente el fenómeno de suburbanización, que en el caso santafesino comenzó a evidenciarse en la década del 90, con una intensidad creciente hacia la primera década del siglo XXI. Considerando que en los últimos años la imagen visual, ya sea desde los ámbitos publicitarios, la prensa u otros campos, se ha convertido en un poderoso instrumento de construcción de realidad, es objetivo, por tanto, indagar a partir de un enfoque cultural, en los procesos que han construido la imagen del lugar y los imaginarios sobre éste, y cómo dichas imágenes son parte activa en la construcción de ese territorio. ¿Qué muestran? ¿Qué ocultan? Más aún, ¿cómo operan las imágenes que construyen el lugar?

Transformación de las políticas de gestión de riesgos en Quebec

En 1996, las lluvias excepcionalmente abundantes que cayeron en la región de Saguenay (Quebec - Canadá) provocaron la ruptura o el desbordamiento de presas, inundaciones, deslizamientos de tierra (más de 1000 en 36 horas) y numerosos cortes de electricidad. Estos eventos repentinos causaron dos muertes, forzaron la evacuación de más de 16.000 personas y generaron perdidas económicas estimadas en aproximadamente un millar de dólares canadienses. Cerca de quince años más tarde se hace un balance de algunas de las principales repercusiones que dichos eventos tuvieron en la manera como el gobierno de Quebec enfrenta estas situaciones. Dos leyes (ley sobre la seguridad de las presas (2000) y la ley sobre la seguridad publica 2001)) y una política (la política nacional del agua, 2002) se inspiraron directamente en las lecciones dejadas por el desastre de Saguenay y son brevemente presentadas en este artículo. Estas lecciones, así como aquellas obtenidas de la tormenta de hielo que vivió Quebec en 1998, abrieron la vía a un enfoque mas global y estructurado de la seguridad civil: la gestión de riesgos.